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0.42″ In Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

I am back in KC and the weather pattern continues to be the same one that set up last October.  Some subtle differences may begin to show up, however, as the new LRC is just 8 weeks away from beginning.  The jet stream has reached its weakest average strength and farthest north position, and it will begin strengthening as fall approaches.  Unfortunately, we are still in the same pattern that set up last October, and the same things continue to happen over and over again.  I titled the blog 0.42″ in two weeks, because that is how much rain was in my rain gauge after two weeks away.  Hawaii was fantastic, relaxing, and fun. And, Hurricane Hector passed by south of the islands and the surf was up.

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Take a look at these surfers navigating the higher surf, one of them in the air as I snapped this picture.  We experienced many rainbows too.

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Now, back to our weather. Take a look at the rainfall total from the latest HRRR that just came out. This is the rainfall total ending at 10 AM Tuesday:

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There is an upper level storm approaching. And, you can see it in the swirl of forecast rainfall totals over Kansas, west of KC.  But, look at the low totals near KC.  Are we really going to try to have to explain how many areas got missed again? There is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today, and I am hoping this latest HRRR forecast model is just wrong.

Have a great day. Let me get back into the swing of things, and we will look deeper into this pattern tonight on 41 Action News, and in the blogs this week.  I am relaxed, ready to get back to work, and hopefully not be frustrated by this pattern. We need more rain, but it won’t be shocking if it misses many areas once again.

Gary

Showers of Meteors and Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

Tonight is the peak of the Perseid Meteor shower and we should have good viewing as the sky will be clear. However, smoke could be an issue. Here are the details on the meteor shower.

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Now, here are the details on the showers of rain, based on the new data. The good  news is that all of the computer models still suggest a decent widespread rain event from Maryville to Marshall, MO west to Pleasanton and Emporia, KS. Could this still go wrong? Oh yea. It won’t be 100% until we see the white’s of it’s eyes!

SUNDAY: Today will be hazy, hot and humid as we still have plenty of smoke in the sky. It will be a great day to head to the pool and the best day of the week for the pool. This is good news because that means rain and clouds are in the forecast.

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TONIGHT: The weather looks good for meteor viewing, but smoke may be an issue.

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MONDAY MORNING: It will be dry and mild in our area as rain and thunderstorms occur across much of Oklahoma and Texas.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: A lead wave may break off from the main system and track north. Rain may make it to KC 12-2 PM. It will be in the 70s where it is raining and near 90° where it is not raining. This first wave may not make it much farther north than shown below. Yes, missing northern Missouri. But, since the main system is yet to arrive, and this is not a one shot deal, there will be more rain and thunderstorms making a run at our parched area Monday night and Tuesday.

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TUESDAY: This looks like the day where all locations get some decent rain and thunderstorms as the system tracks west to east across our region. Highs will be 75°-85°, depending on rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY: We are a day later and the data is pretty consistent. This is good news, but we still, as I said above, need to see the white’s of its eyes! Can you imagine this type of a rainfall event? It has been a very long time.

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Here is a wider view of the rainfall forecast. It extends south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

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Take a look at the rainfall forecast above. Now take a look at the most recent drought monitor. The rain will be falling over some really dry areas. This is great news! Now, let’s hope it all pans out.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Hazy Sky and Increasing Rain Chances

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are following two main weather events today. The first is the haze in the sky and the second is the chance of rain early next week.

The haze is smoke from the wildfires in California combined with smoke from fires in western Canada.

Here is a visible satellite image from 7 PM Friday. The fuzzy items are clearly smoke in the sky. You can see the monsoon thunderstorms embedded in the smoke.

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Here is a look at the satellite from 7 PM Friday in the middle of the USA. You can see the smoke, rather thick, from northwest Kansas to Minnesota. Minneapolis had air quality warnings.

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How is that smoke from western North America getting to the middle of the USA? The image below shows the explanation. It is the upper level flow. An anticyclone, also called and upper level high or “heat wave creating machine”, is located over the northern Rockies. The flow around the high is clockwise. So, the smoke tracks from the western USA, north to western Canada where it combines with more smoke from the wildfires in western Canada. The smoke then turns east into central Canada then south into the northern USA. The flow keeps the smoke drifting south into Kansas and Missouri. This flow will persist all weekend.

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Where is the smoke Saturday morning? It was located from northern Kansas to northern Missouri, northward into Canada. It does not look as thick, since the satellite is not picking it up as well due to the sun not being high enough in the sky. It is drifting south about 10-20 miles per hour and will arrive in KC by afternoon. It will likely be around all weekend, so this evening the sunset may have an interesting reddish hue.

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Now lets turn our attention to the chance of rain. The main jet stream is flowing well to the north across Canada, but does dip south over the eastern USA. The systems that brought our scattered downpours Thursday and Friday drifted south and are combining to form an upper low over Texas.

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The upper low will become more defined Sunday as it drifts northwest. There will be northward drifting areas of rain and thunderstorms across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

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The upper low on Monday is forecast to be in Kansas, by all models. This would likely bring a larger area of rain and thunderstorms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri Monday into Tuesday.

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This is the rainfall forecast for today through Tuesday. The rain in our area does not start until Monday, but my goodness, this is a sight for sore eyes.

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When we zoom in you can see mostly consistent rainfall totals from Maryville, MO to Pleasanton, KS, east to Sedalia, MO and west to Emporia, KS.

We have had rainfall events where all locations get rain this season. But, some get 0.01″, 0.50″, 2.00″-4.00″ and everything in between. Also, the heavier amounts are in the minority. This is different, where all locations receive at least 0.40″-0.50″.

If this pans out, it will not end the drought, it will not even dent the drought, but is is a step in the right direction. It would need to be followed by more events. There actually are more chances next week, but let’s just get this first one under our belt.  This is still a slam dunk. As we know it is 36-48 hours away. So, we will check in Sunday and hope the data remains consistent.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Better Rain Chances Next Week…We Shall See

Good Friday bloggers,

We had a few thunderstorms on Thursday and we will have a few around today, especially south of I-70. The weekend weather will be bad for the drought, but good for the pool. As we go through the weekend we will be tracking a system forming in the southern Plains. This system will head north next week and attempt to bring us some rain.

Here is the weekend forecast. Now let’s see what potential we have for rain next week.

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FRIDAY: Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. A few thunderstorms will form along and south of I-70 after 1-2 PM. This data has them west of Warrensburg to west of Clinton. They could form just about anywhere, but mostly south of I-70. Temperatures will drop to the 70s if you get under one of these downpours. If you have outdoor plans this evening, such as the Royals-Cardinals game, the weather looks very good with temperatures dropping from the 80s to 70s as any thunderstorms drift south and away.

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SATURDAY: It will be a nice summer day with sunshine, light winds and highs around 90°. It is a great day to head to the pool.

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SUNDAY: It will be dry with lows 65°-70°, highs around 90° along with high clouds around here. Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, will be occurring across southern Oklahoma and Texas as a storm system forms down there. This storm system is due in part to the system that dropped south over us on Thursday. Also, a few thunderstorms may form in the afternoon across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

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MONDAY: The storm system will head north and a nice area of rain and thunderstorms will likely affect most of Kansas and Oklahoma. Before we get even remotely excited that this will bring widespread rain to our drought stricken areas, keep in mind these areas below have seen decent rain this summer. Then, as the rain tracks into eastern Kansas and western Missouri it becomes scattered or falls apart. The rain will most likely become scattered as it moves in later Monday into Tuesday. Could it be a widespread event? Sure. Have we asked this question before? Sure. Have we had a widespread event during the spring and summer? NO. We will watch this one over the weekend and see how the data trends, but we know the most likely scenario.

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After the system exits we will go into northwest flow, which means more chances of thunderstorms. LOL.

Have a great weekend and let’s hope this next rain chance steps out of the box.

Jeff Penner

Hurricane Hector, The Mahomes Era Begins, Tailgating T-Storms?

Good afternoon bloggers,

First of all I am still in Hawaii. This was my first two week vacation in 33 years; in other words, the first two week vacation since I started my career. Yes, I am relaxed, and ready to come back to KC tomorrow. But, first Hurricane Hector is almost due south of me, take a look:

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Hector iis influencing Hawaii with high surf, as I am watching surfers deal with 10 to 12 foot waves.  And, we are now in the circulation of the storm and there has been an influence that I notice strongly, but I am not sure if anyone else around me is noticing. The clouds are so different today, with some interesting showers forming.  I am loving it.

Okay, let’s look at early next week before I get to today.  Look at the European Model solution for late Tuesday:

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The white areas next to the red show 1 to 2 inches of rain from a slow moving upper low that will spin by.  The Euro also showed NOTHING for today. Take a look at the 3:30 PM radar:

 

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These thunderstorms were moving south, so this likely means it will be dry for tailgating, but I am not there, so I am not able to look outside, so let me know.  Rule #1 of forecasting is always look outside, because you never know.

I will be back at work Monday. There has been a lot going on and I should come back refreshed and ready to go, until my next vacation in a week……….just kidding.

Have a great evening. Let me know how Mahomes looks in this first preseason game as our new leader. Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020.com site to join in the conversation.

Garyy

Weird System to Watch

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather forecast through Monday is not too difficult. Partly to mostly sunny, highs around 90, lows 65-70 with one slight chance of rain. The one chance is Friday as a weak cold front drifts south.

The forecast for next Tuesday-Thursday is a bit more interesting as we will track two features. The first one is a weird system forming in the southwest Plains and the second is a cold front with a system coming in from the northwest.

Today we had a very weak disturbance drift south and it generated some very small, pulsing downpours in eastern Kansas. They are drifting south and may last until 10 PM. These may be the world’s smallest thunderstorms.

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The next chance for a few thunderstorms is on Friday as a weak cold front drifts south. I may have been generous in calling this a cold front.  It is more likely a surface trough as there is really no temperature change behind this alleged front.

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The feature that has a chance to bring us our next chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is a weird upper low forming in the southwest Plains over the weekend. This data is from the 18Z NAM, and as I am writing this blog, the 18Z GFS is showing this feature develop over the weekend. Next Tuesday-Thursday we will see this low head northeast bringing an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. If it wanted to, it could be a widespread rain event. But, we know better. The only way we go for a widespread event is if we see evidence of it forming the day of the chance of rain. This is still the same ridiculous weather pattern.

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Have a great night and we will see how the new data trends with this next, weird system.

Jeff Penner

Mostly Paltry Rainfall

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Well, the rain played out pretty much how we thought. There were many locations that received under 0.50″ of rain. A few locations in KC saw 1″ to 2″ of rain. Northern Missouri, did see more amounts in the 1″-2″ range. The St. Joseph area saw 2″ to 4″ of rain!

Look at this photo of a rain gauge in St. Joseph. Thank you Jay Archer. That’s exciting!

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Here are some radar estimated rainfall totals from around the area. Remember, your rain gauge may read different as these are radar estimates.

Northern Missouri was the big winner for sure, but 5-10 more of these events is needed to end the drought and there are zero in the forecast.

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Locations south of I-70 did not see much either with amounts in the 0.10″ to 0.80″ range. There was a 1″ to 3″ pocket southwest of Ottawa.

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Rainfall in the Kansas City area was mostly around 0.25″ to 0.50″. There were some pockets that saw less than 0.10″ and a few lucky locations received 1″ to 2″.

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Yes, we need much more rain as mostly we just had a piddly event.

The weather pattern the next 5-7 days does not support much rain around here. Now, there may be isolated T-Storms Wednesday with a weak system and Friday with a weak front. But, most rainfall the next 7 days will occur from Oklahoma/Texas east to the southeast USA and north to the Tennessee Valley and eastern Midwest. Temperatures around here will be a bit above average with highs mostly around 90° the next 7 days.

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There is a a front and possible system towards the middle and end of next week that have potential to bring some rain, but we shall see.

Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

Another One of those Rain Events

Good Monday bloggers,

Well, here we go again and again and again and again. This next rain event for tonight and Tuesday is turning into a scattered event and the trend is toward less rain as we get closer to it. Sound familiar?

Here is our latest thinking.

A cold front is drifting south across the Plains and it is a decent front. But, it will become more ill-defined as it heads south which means our rain will be more disorganized. At least we will cool off  Tuesday into Wednesday.

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Here are the disturbances we are tracking as of 4 PM Monday. They will move east into our region later tonight and move out Tuesday morning. These hold our best rain chances for the next 7 days.

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TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT: You can see the heaviest showers and T-Storms are located in southern Iowa. The I-70 corridor has just a few yellow spots, meaning not many heavy rain areas. South of I-70, there is barely any rain.

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TUESDAY: The showers and T-Storms will exit during the morning, leaving a few showers behind during the afternoon. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s as the sun begins to peek out.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This is a JOKE! Rainfall amounts will be trace to 1″ with the least south of I-70. As it stands now, the heaviest rain looks to occur from southern Iowa to northern Indiana where they are not in drought conditions. It would be nice to shift this thing south by 100-200 miles. It could happen at the last minute, but unlikely. If it does, we will update the blog. We will know later this evening if this could happen.

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A few showers and T-Storms may pop up Wednesday as a second system moves by, but overall we are looking dry into early next week after Tuesday.

Tomorrow is election day, remember to vote.

Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

A Smattering of Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

We finally have a term for the rainfall pattern this spring and summer, a “smattering.” Before we take a look at the data for the one rain chance during the next 7 days, let’s look at some 2018 rainfall totals from around the area.

Here is the official rainfall total for Kansas City. It is taken at KCI and is most misleading. It shows that we are about 4″ below average rainfall. This is due to a freakish 3.29″ rain event on July 18th. A thin, small band of very heavy downpours stalled right over southern Platte county. There are a few locations around KC with this type of rainfall total, especially in Overland Park. Otherwise, most locations are not even close. See below.

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Olathe is 11″ below average.

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St. Joseph is getting close to a foot below average for the year with a little over 11″ of rain.

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Lawrence is also getting close to a foot below average rainfall.

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What we need to get rid of the drought is 5″-10″ of rain over a few weeks in all locations. What is in the forecast for this week, is not that.

SUNDAY: Today will be hot and humid with a breeze to help a bit. The front that will bring our next rain chance is sitting in Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms will light up in to a widespread event across Nebraska and Iowa where there is no drought at all. Our area will stay dry and mild with lows mostly in the 70s.

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MONDAY: The thunderstorms along I-80 will track east as the cold front sags south. We will have another hot and dry day with highs 95°-100°.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING: The front will be drifting south across the area as disturbances move in from the west. This will create areas of rain and thunderstorms, but not all locations will see decent rain. Yes, here we go again.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: If you do not get the rain, at least all locations will see highs in the low to mid 80s. Some locations may stay in the 70s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This data has the heaviest rain along I-70 and across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. The location of the heavier rain could end up anywhere, meaning 50-100 miles farther north or south. It depends on the exact track of the thunderstorms. This is the problem. Instead of having to say the heaviest rain could end up anywhere, it needs to be EVERYWHERE! Could this set up bring a widespread rain event? Sure, there are some models doing that. But, we are very hesitant to go for a widespread event until we see exactly how this is going to evolve. Especially, since we have seen zero widespread rain events this spring and summer.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

One Main Rain Chance

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking a weak system today that will bring clouds and a few showers. Then, a cold front and system move through Monday-Tuesday. These features will generate showers and thunderstorms, but I am sure you can guess the most likely scenario.

Let’s take a look at how the drought has evolved since May 1st.

The drought on May 1st was quite significant from southwest Kansas and points to the southwest. We were abnormally dry to moderate drought, but nothing a good rain or two couldn’t wipe out.

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Well, here we sit in early August and we are still waiting for that good rain or two, so now look at the drought. It is quite interesting. The drought has vanished from the southwest Plains as there has been many rounds of great rain during the last couple of months. Our drought has really intensified. There are two odd things about this drought. One, is that even though the drought has become more intense, it really has not expanded much. Usually droughts intensify and expand. Second, the exceptional drought in the southwest Plains has ended. Usually when a drought ends there during the summer, we are not in a drought. And, especially when there is no drought to the east. This is a regional drought that is getting worse, again odd.

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We have one main rain chance the next 7 days, and that occurs Monday into Tuesday. Let’s go through the forecast today through Tuesday. There is some heat in there as well.

SATURDAY: A weak disturbance will bring high and mid level clouds along with a few showers and possibly one or two small thunderstorms. Rainfall will be trace to 0.10″. Temperatures will drop to the upper 70s and low 80s if you receive a shower, otherwise highs will reach around 90°.

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SUNDAY: The heat will intensify as highs climb into the mid and possibly upper 90s. The humidity will increase as well, but at least there will be a breeze to take the edge off. The front in Nebraska will start to move south Sunday night.

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MONDAY: This looks like the hottest day of the week, out ahead of the front. Highs will reach 95° to 100° with a decent amount of humidity. There will be less wind as well.

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MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Here we go again. The cold front is moving south and it looks like the best chance of widespread rain will be across western Kansas and Illinois. Tuesday will see the thunderstorms increase across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri while our region is left with a smattering of rain. Yes, smattering is the new term until we can see evidence of a major rain event.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY: This is pretty much a visual representation of the term smattering. A few locations will see 0.25″ to 2″ while most will see none to 0.25″. The exact locations of the 0.25″ to 2″ rainfall is still not set in stone, but the bottom line, it is a smattering.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner