Quantcast

Omega Block

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are the beginning of a great stretch of weather as the weather pattern is getting blocked up.  We are now in an Omega block, as the jet stream takes on the shape of the Greek letter Omega.  When these blocks form, the weather you have at the start of the block usually last 4-6 days before the block breaks down.  Fortunately, for us we are in the nice weather part of the block.

3

There are troughs on the west coast and eastern USA.  A large ridge is found in the middle of the USA, and this is where we live!  So, we are looking at some great weather the next 5-6 days.  Our next chance of rain arrives Sunday into Monday as the west coast trough moves into the Rockies and Plains and the block breaks down.

4

A weak front will move through early Wednesday, so the highs will be similar to Tuesday.  Then, the warming trend gets going as the ridge slides slowly east.

WEDNESDAY: We will see highs in the 60s as we get a glancing blow from the front.  Highs will be in the 40s across the Great Lakes.

1

 

THURSDAY: We warm to the 70s, a near perfect day!  The 80s in western Kansas will arrive Saturday.

2

 

Have a great night.

Jeff

 

A Calm Week Ahead

Good Monday bloggers,

After an active week that saw our 2.50″ rain deficit become a 2.50″ rain surplus this week will be much different as we go into a calm weather pattern for about 5-6 days.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A ridge will build into the middle of the USA with troughs in the eastern USA and west coast.  This is somewhat of an Omega block.  This means we are in for 5-6 days of sunshine, mostly light winds and highs warming from the 60s to near 80°.  Friday and Saturday will see the highs near 80°.

5

 

NEXT WEEK: The trough on the west coast that forms this week will begin to move east into the Rockies next weekend.  This will increase the chance of rain and thunderstorms in our area next Sunday-Monday.  We have potential for some heavy rain.

5

 

Before we get to the next stormy set up we do have some great May weather.

MONDAY MORNING:  It will be clear, calm and cool with lows in the 40s.

1

 

TUESDAY: The sun will be back with highs around 70° .  A cold front will be moving south from Canada, but the main thrust will be felt across the Great Lakes.

7

 

WEDNESDAY: The front moves through and our winds switch to the north.  But, our highs will not be affected as we reach around 70° once again.  Highs will be in the 40s across the Great Lakes and notice the big warm up in the northern Rockies where highs reach the 80s.  This is a sign of things to come.

3

 

Have a great week.

Jeff

Cooling for Sunday, then drying out for a few days

What a soggy week! We have made up for the dry, quiet days we had over the last month or so. Check out my latest video blog for details.
By the way, I’d like your feedback on what you’d like to see more/less of in the videos. Tweet me, Facebook me, email me and let me know what you’d like to see. More charts and raw maps? More in-depth talk? Of course, it will depend on what weather we have coming, but I’d like to tailor the videos to suit your needs!

Current Storm Weakening

Good Saturday bloggers,

The current storm system is now in a weakening phase and the rain is decreasing in coverage.  This afternoon will actually be decent with some sun and highs mostly in the 60s.

The last bands of showers and thunderstorms are moving north this morning.  There are a couple of chances for new showers, but most of the main rain is over.

1

 

SATURDAY PM: The surface pattern will be a bit chaotic with surface lows in eastern Kansas and central Missouri.  These will be connected by a trough with cold fronts extending out from the lows.  So, this afternoon if we can see some sun, and highs reach the 60s to near 70° we may see a few new showers and thunderstorms form on the boundaries.  There is no threat of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center, but if some of the thunderstorms can get going, then a few may produce small hail.  There is a remote chance one or two of the new thunderstorms produces quarter sized hail.

2

 

SUNDAY: This will be a cloudy, breezy and cool day with a few showers and sprinkles as the system pulls away.  Highs will be in the 50s.

3

 

MONDAY: There will be a new weak system that could bring a few showers along with lots of clouds.  It will still be a cool day with highs near 60°.

4

 

Tuesday through Friday look nice with highs in the 70s, so we will get a chance to dry out and mow the grass.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

A Wet Start to the Weekend

Good Friday bloggers,

We have had a one day break from the rain as our next storm affects us tonight.  It is amazing that we have gone from, “we sure could use some rain, to when will it stop” in one week.

As of 2:15 PM there was a large area of rain in central and eastern Kansas.  This rain will spread across the area this evening with periods of heavier rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Temperatures will be in the low 50s, so we are in for a cold and wet Friday night.

1

 

RAINFALL FORECAST: This is from the 12z NAM.  It shows the heaviest amounts right up I-35.  This is not set in stone, but all areas will see at least .25″ to 1″ with some locations receiving 1″ to 1.50″.

5

 

SATURDAY: The forecast is tricky.  There will be 2 surface lows, one in central Missouri and the other in eastern Kansas.  The models do not have any new showers and thunderstorms, but if the sun comes out, and highs reach 65-70, then we could see a few thunderstorms form on these boundaries.  If they form, one or two could be severe, even though there is no risk in our area.  If the lows set up further south, then it will be cloudier across the region and not as warm with just a slight chance of new showers and thunderstorms.  So, after the overnight rain ends early Saturday, most of tomorrow has potential to be dry.

2

 

SUNDAY: The storm system will be pulling away allowing low clouds and much cooler air to head south.  There will also be a few rain showers as well.  Highs Sunday will be in the 50s.

3

 

Monday looks cloudy with a chance of light rain as a new system moves in and weakens.  Then, the rest of the week looks much nicer with sunshine and highs in the 70s.  Another wet storm is likely may 8-11.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Thunderstorms blast Kansas City this morning, more on the way!

Good morning bloggers,

Take a look at this hail stone, one of many, that hit parts of the KC metro area this morning. The risk of severe weather will be increasing this evening.

Hail Layers

 

Thunderstorms are moving across the metro area this morning.  There will be a break, and then more are on the way tonight.  We are in the Thanksgiving weekend part of the cycling pattern. This storm is right on schedule according to the LRC.

Screen Shot 2016-04-26 at 7.16.02 AM

This is a complex of thunderstorms moving across before noon today. Then there will be a break. We will update you on the evening risk by early this afternoon.

Gary

Severe Weather Outbreak May Happen Tuesday…Update

Good morning bloggers,

MONDAY PM UPDATE:

The new data is in and we are in for several rounds of thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday with all forms of severe weather possible.  So, lets go through this.

TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS: There is a moderate risk across central Kansas with an enhanced slight risk on the Kansas side and a slight risk elsewhere.  A moderate risk issued on day 2 means a 60% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.  An enhanced slight risk means 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location.  There are two periods of thunderstorms we need to keep an eye on.

1

 

TUESDAY MORNING: This is the first round we need to keep an eye on.  These will be generated by a warm front sitting to our southwest.  These thunderstorms would bring very heavy rain, frequent lightning and large hail.  There is also a chance of damaging winds.

2

 

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The morning thunderstorms head southeast into southern Missouri, while the main show starts forming in central Kansas near the triple point.  Those thunderstorms have the best chance to be tornadic supercells as initially there will be less thunderstorms.  Then after 1-2 hours the thunderstorms will increase and begin to form into lines and clusters with a few supercells.  These will still have the potential to bring all forms of severe weather.

3

 

TUESDAY EVENING: The activity that forms in central Kansas will have evolved and a line will be possible.  This could be a bow echo.  So, you can see damaging winds and large hail with the chance of an embedded tornado.  We will have to see how unstable the environment is by the time they reach here.  This could depend on the amount of morning activity.

4

 

TUESDAY NIGHT: This model has us getting pounded with thunderstorms.  These could be just heavy rain or a full blown bow echo.

5

 

Needless to say, Tuesday is going to be an active day with several chance of thunderstorms.   Also, Wednesday afternoon there is a chance for scattered severe thunderstorms as a leftover triple point lingers in the area.  So, keep an eye to the sky, download the storm shield app and/or be close to a weather radio and stay tune to 41 Action News and we’ll keep you advised.

Jeff Penner

 

 

hailOne of our storm chasers, Carl Hobi, from our KSHB Storm Chase Team, got pounded by this hail. He said that his car did not do very well in this hailstorm.  This happened on his chase out to central Kansas yesterday.  The severe weather risk is going to increase substantially on Tuesday as a strong storm comes out of the southwestern United States. There are still many uncertainties to this storm system and our weather team is analyzing the data closely.

There is a chance of thunderstorms early on Tuesday, but it is the evening hours and possibly into the overnight hours that has our biggest concern.

Here is the day 2 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

day2otlk_0600

There is a large risk area, and Kansas City is in it.  Let’s all take this risk very seriously, and begin planning now with your family, and practice your safety plan.

Gary

An active few days ahead

A lot to talk about as we go into Sunday and then Tuesday. Instead of typing it all out, a picture is worth a thousand words… here is a video blog!

Calming Down for a Few Days

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The second round of rain with this storm moved through last night as a disturbance rotated around the main upper low.  I was a bit surprised that there were no thunderstorms.  The system is now lifting north and becoming part of the main upper low.  We will be on the south side of this system today and Thursday.  Today, the rain is over, but we will see lots of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds with highs in the 60s.  There is a chance for a few showers Thursday, we will talk about that below.

The main upper low is in western Nebraska with the disturbance near Omaha.  These will coming together later today and the upper low will reform in central Nebraska.  This upper low moved into Colorado last Thursday!  It brought 2″-5″ rains to much of the Plains, which has been mostly good news for the Hard Red winter wheat crop.  Our area has seen .50″ to 1.50″ of rain when you add up the rain from Monday and last night.

1

 

THURSDAY: The main system will be on the move into the Great Lakes with our area on the back side of the system.  We may see a few showers, with a trace-.15″ possible.  Then, the storm is over and we have some great Spring weather for Friday and Saturday.  Sunday still looks good, but the pattern is about to get active and there is a chance of thunderstorms, possibly severe,  by Sunday or Monday.

2

 

The last week of April into early May has the potential to get rather active as a blocking pattern forms at high latitudes.  An upper high will be forming over Greenland with a second high in western Canada.  In between there will be a large upper low north of New England that extends northwest to the North Pole.  This is a blocked pattern as those features will move slowly and the high in Greenland will drift west.  This high may combine with the high in western Canada, which extends the life of the block.  So, why is this important for our weather?

The main jet stream will get forced south into the USA and get energized.  It gets energized as it interacts with hotter air at low latitudes.  This means there will be a series of storm systems moving across the USA.  This time of year when you have more energetic storm systems you have the chance for severe weather and flooding.  The middle and western part of the USA will be targeted.  The forecast will have to be taken one day at a time as the timing and track of the systems will be hard more than a day or two in advance.  The timing is critical as this will determine where the best severe threats will be.  Also, we may have some colder days as the blocking pattern forces colder air south.  It is going to be an interesting few weeks.

4

 

Have a great day and weekend.

Jeff

Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

Good Tuesday bloggers,

A round of rain and thunderstorms is likely tonight as a disturbance rotates around the main storm that is still sitting in Colorado.  It has been there since Friday.  After this disturbance moves by it will pull the upper low east and this system will begin to move.  We may see a shower Thursday, but we are in for some great weather into the weekend after this system moves on.

As of Tuesday afternoon there are areas of showers and thunderstorms from western Kansas to the Texas panhandle.  This is the developing area of rain that is headed in.  There is an area of showers to our southwest.  This may try to come in this evening, but does not look like much at this time.

5

 

130 AM WEDNESDAY: Areas of rain and thunderstorms will be moving through.  Some of the heavier thunderstorms may contain small hail.  Otherwise, we should see some more beneficial rain.  The heaviest appears it will be from our area to the west.

2

 

730 AM WEDNESDAY: The last of the showers and thunderstorms will be moving through, so it looks like a wet morning rush hour.  The afternoon will be mostly dry with lots of clouds and highs in the 60s.  An isolated shower is possible.

3

 

RAINFALL FORECAST:  This is from our RPM model.  It may be a bit overdone, but if this really gets going and there are numerous thunderstorms, then these amounts can easily occur.  Now, that being said, most locations should receive .25″ to 1″.  Some locations will see 1″-2″.  It just depends on how the thunderstorms set up.  The most likely areas to see the least rain will be east of KC.

1

 

Have a great night and lets hope you get a good downpour on your yard or farm.

Jeff