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Record Breaking Day

Good Wednesday,

We will be likely shattering the record high for today as we are expecting highs close to 80°.  If we do reach 80°, officially in KC, then this will be the earliest recorded 80° high in KC history!

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This crazy long stretch of warm weather has started the budding process on the trees and the flowers are starting to poke through the ground as well.  It is much too early.  So, if you are sneezing and coughing you may be allergic to Elm and Juniper pollen as the count is through the roof.  We need some rain to wash the pollen out of the air, or better yet, below freezing air to slow the budding process down.

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Colder air is on the way, but meaningful rain is a bigger question.  The weather changes begin Thursday.

THURSDAY TEMPERATURES:  KC will be near a warm front, so highs will be in the 60s, with 70s south.  50s for highs are possible in northern Missouri.  Much colder air is lurking in Nebraska.  This colder air will rush in Friday.

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THURSDAY PRECIPITATION: We may see a few brief showers/thunderstorms midday Thursday, but most of the precipitation will occur along and north of I-80.  A snowstorm will occur from northern Nebraska to Wisconsin and northern lower and all of upper Michigan.  If we had more moisture, then we could have a chance of severe thunderstorms.

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FRIDAY: This is the day when reality strikes as it will be cloudy and windy with temperatures in the 40s.  The warm air is moving away.

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There will be 2-3 more storm systems to watch Sunday into next week.  Each one will have the chance to bring some rain or even snow.  Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride.  So, the forecast for these days will have to be taken one day at a time as the data looks different every 6 hours.

Have a great day and night.

Jeff

End of the Week Changes

Good Tuesday.

We are in for a very nice day of weather, near perfect, with highs around 70° a light wind and total sunshine.  Wednesday will be warmer ahead of a significant change back to where we should be for this time of year.  Let’s go through this day by day.

TODAY: Hour by Hour Forecast  The record high is 75° set in 1935.

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TODAY: Surface map.  A weak trough will be to our west, with a storm system to our southeast.  This puts us in an area of light winds.

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WEDNESDAY: The trough moves east and we see more of a southwest wind.  This will allow us to warm up to close to 80°.  The record is 73° set in 1982, we should smash that.  The cold front to the north will head south and stall near I-70 by Thursday as a storm system forms.

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THURSDAY (Temperatures): Look at this temperature difference forming across the Plains.  The storm is forming, but we will still be in or very close to the warm air.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.  The 20s, and much colder air is lurking to the north.

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THURSDAY (Precipitation): The main storm will be tracking to our north, so we may see a few showers/thunderstorms midday. Otherwise, we will be dry with a snowstorm along I-80.

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THURSDAY NIGHT: The cold front will be sweeping through and there may be some light sleet or rain/snow mix in the northwest corner of Missouri.  Any rain will be well east and northeast of our area.

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FRIDAY: Reality check!  The cold air will be sweeping in.  We will be cloudy and windy with perhaps a flurry, but the main feature will be the change to colder air.  A hard freeze is likely Friday night which is a good thing so we can stop the tree budding process.

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There are 3-4 more systems to watch February 26-March 10.  One or two of them may bring us some snow, so winter is not quite over yet.  At this time, we do not see any big storm systems.

Have a great day.

Jeff

More 70s then Reality

Good Monday.

Well, we had some rain, but amounts were paltry.  The rest of today will be cloudy with highs in the 60s, perhaps 70° if the sun pops out.  If we do reach 70°, then today will be the 5th consecutive day with highs 70° or higher which would break the record.  Tuesday and Wednesday will see temperatures soar back into the 70s, close to 80° Wednesday.  Then, a storm system moves by Thursday and behind that we will have a reality check.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at the upcoming changes in the weather.

HIGHS TUESDAY:

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Increasing Rain Chances

Good Sunday,

Our dry spell is now 26 days, but that has potential to come to a screeching halt.  The new data is strongly leaning towards a round of showers and thunderstorms later tonight.  This is some good news as we will take any rain we can get. Today the humidity will be increasing ahead of the rain event tonight.  This higher humidity is a big ingredient to why we may see more substantial rain in some locations.  Low clouds will be around today as the humidity goes up.  In areas with low clouds highs will be in the low to mid 60s.  Areas of more sun will see highs around 70°.

RAINFALL CHANCES:

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this next rain chance and changing weather pattern.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Changes Around the Corner

Good Saturday,

We are looking at another day in the 70s.  However, today the winds will be 5-10 mph, much less than the last two days, so today will be even nicer than Thursday and Friday.  This is the good news, but we need rain as our dry spell has reached 25 days.  Sunday will be dry with more clouds with highs around 70°.  Then, it looks like early Monday we will see a band of rain with a trace-.25″.  This is not nearly enough rain, but it will temporarily end the fire danger.  Now, winter is NOT over.  We have changes by the end of the week.  You can check out the video below for a more in depth look at these changes.

SATURDAY MORNING SUNRISE

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff

Elevated Fire Danger

Good Wednesday.

The good news is that we have some great weather the next several days with sunshine and highs around 70°.  The bad news is that is it rather dry, a 22 day dry spell as of today.  Thursday and Friday we will see gusty winds and low humidity and this will create the conditions for fire weather.  A Red Flag Warning may be issued.  This is when fires are ongoing or imminent.  The criteria is for sustained winds 15 mph or greater and humidity 15% or lower and temperatures 75° or higher.  The temperature part of the criteria seems to be flexible, so we could be under a Red Flag Warning Thursday and Friday.  This weekend the humidity will increase and the wind will decrease, so the fire threat will come way down.

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at the next week’s weather.

Have a great rest of your week and weekend.

Jeff

 

21 Day Dry Spell

Good Tuesday and Happy Valentine’s day,

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We had some sprinkles and a few ice pellets on Monday, but it was not enough to break the dry spell that is now at 21 days.  This dry spell will reach at least 26 days before we have a chance of rain.  This will lead to a high fire danger by Thursday as the wind increases.  This is the bad news.  The good news is that highs will be around 70° Thursday-Monday, so Spring fever will be in full bloom.  Today will see highs 50-55, cooling to the 40s and 30s tonight.  So, take a jacket if you are headed to a romantic dinner!  Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler.

We do see changes next week and increasing chances for some moisture.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at this unseasonable weather pattern.

Happy Valentine’s day,

Jeff

A Few Showers & Mild

Good Monday,

We will see a few showers or sprinkles today, but basically our dry spell will continue.  The main part of the storm will affect the southern Plains where they need the rain as well.  Highs today will be around 50°.  Valentine’s day is looking lovely with highs in the low 50s and areas of high clouds.  A more active pattern is likely next week.  Click on the video below for a more in in-depth look at the weather pattern.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

More Mild Weather, Very Little Moisture

Good Sunday,

Today will be a nice February day with highs in the low 50s, however, the wind will be in from the north at 10-25 mph, a bit annoying.  So, it will not be as nice as Saturday, but it is almost impossible to beat the 70° weather and light wind this time of year.  We could use some rain and there is a chance of a few showers Monday evening, but that is it for the week.  Click on the video below for an in depth look at this unseasonable weather pattern.

SUNDAY MORNING SUNRISE

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Have a great week.

Jeff

Mainly Dry Until Further Notice

Good Saturday,

The good news for some is that the weather is very nice for February as we will have highs today in the 60s with periods of clouds.  Sunday will be a decent day, just more wind and cooler with highs in the 40s.  The bad news is that it is getting dry and we had grass fires on Friday and this will only get worse if we do not get any precipitation.  There is a chance for a few rain showers Monday evening and night, but this will not be much.

So, have we seen our last snow?  It was January 5th the last time we had a measurable snow day.  Based on the last 5 winter, we will get at least one more day of snow.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this odd winter and forecast for the week.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff