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Great Weather for Big Weekend Events

Good Wednesday bloggers,

It was a quite eventful first half of October. The next 7 days will see mostly quiet weather in our area with one main rain chance. This is good news for the big events this weekend. There are three races at the Kansas Speedway, the KC marathon and the Chiefs game on Sunday night Football in America, right here on 41 Action News against the Bengals.

The weather pattern right now is in split flow. There is a northern branch tracking southeast from Canada into the Great Lakes and New England. This is bringing rain and snow showers to the northeast part of the country. There is a second branch tracking across the southern USA. This branch is rounding an upper level low in the southwest USA which is delivering waves of rain from the southern Plains to the southeast USA. Texas is really getting hit as 5″ to 12″ of rain has occurred between San Angelo and Dallas. A new 2″ to 5″ of rain is likely before the system lifts out Thursday night and Friday. This will bring our next chance of rain. We do not expect much rain as the system will be weakening.

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THURSDAY: It will be another nice fall day as a surface high pressure tracks from Nebraska today to the Tennessee valley. We will see a few more clouds as the southwest system begins to move. Rain will be found across the western Plains.

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FRIDAY MORNING: This is when we have the best chance of rain for the next seven days. Right now it looks like just light showers with the heaviest staying south.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be mostly along I-44. It will be mostly cloudy around here with highs in the 50s and perhaps some mist or a few showers. The clearing line will move through Friday night. Total rainfall around here looks to be a trace to .10″, unless the system comes farther north.

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The upper level flow this weekend will feature a new, weak upper low over southern California and a trough from Canada to the northeast. Northwest flow will be found over our part of the world, with the main jet stream to the north.

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This will put us in the middle of a large area of great weather. It may be a bit breeze Saturday and again Sunday night. Showers will linger over the southern USA. It will be cold with rain and snow showers from the Great Lakes to New England.

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This is great news for all the big outdoor events this weekend.

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SATURDAY:

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SUNDAY NIGHT:

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Have a great Thursday.

Jeff Penner

First Half Of October Results

Good morning bloggers,

We had a pretty decent freeze this morning as the temperatures were below freezing from  1 AM to 8 AM. The low temperature dropped to 26 degrees this morning, which ends the growing season in our area:

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What just happened?  Kansas City just had what I would argue is the most exciting 15 day stretch of weather we have had in years. Just in the past seven days we have had heavy rain, tornado warnings, and some snow.  It was the earliest first accumulation in Kansas City’s recorded history:

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How close did we come to having a surprise 2 to 3 inch snowfall?  It was actually very close. We are so used to getting missed. Well, maybe we will begin getting used to having it get more exciting as we get closer to an event, and not less exciting. This is at least how the LRC has started. We have had wide spread high rainfall amounts and these totals are for just one half of this month.

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It was also wet last year in October, and there are many huge differences this year.  First of all it already has snowed measurably in KC and Wichita, KS, the earliest ever recorded. And, more importantly, the rain was not along and east of I-35 like it was last year. This time it was wide spread over many states centered near KC.  So, we establish some big differences from last years pattern results already. Hang on for a few more weeks before you make any conclusions.  It is way too early. It would be like predicting how your fantasy football team will do this year after you drafted your first two players. Rounds 3 though 12 are still ahead.  Let’s see how Mother Nature drafts the rest of our players.

It is going to be a beautiful fall day with a high reaching 60 degrees or a bit higher.  The weather looks great for next Sunday nights game as well.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

State Of The Climate In 2017

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City set the record for the earliest accumulation in recorded history last night with 0.2″ at KCI Airport.  There is a FREEZE WARNING for tonight.  There likely will not be a hard freeze. Conditions are favorable for heavy frost early Tuesday morning. There was too much of a breeze this morning for frost to form, and now with light winds tonight, we will likely have the heavy frost on Tuesday morning.  Then, there is a big warm up, and the weather looks dry and a bit cool next Sunday night for the big Chiefs home game against the Bengals.  Last night was a good night in the loss at New England. Our young superstar grew up some more.  We have some exciting years ahead, and this year may still be magical, so take a deep breath.

Speaking of taking a deep breath, I titled this blog State of the climate in 2017, and I am going to share with you what scientists have put together in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society here.  It will open up a big debate.  Where are the facts? I see them as this current warming of the earth being directly related to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.  Yes, the facts lean strongly in the direction that this is a man made warming.  This is not my opinion, although I lean in this direction.  Take a look:

STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017 (from the special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, No. 8, August 2018)

Climate“In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-reached new record highs.  The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface for 2017 was 405.0 +/- 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800,000 years. The global growth rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s.

With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most fo the year and weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranges as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records began in the mid-to-late 1800s.  Notably, it was the warmest non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposhperic temperature was also either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed.  The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to most of the in situ and satellite data sets.

Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain,and Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures.  Mexico broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year.  On 27 January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madrid, (43°) anywhere in the world.  On 28 May in Turbat, western Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan’s all-time highest temperature for May.

In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 average, the second highest since the record began in 1900, behind only 2016.  The five highest annual Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and northwestern Canada.  In August, high sea surface temperature (SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some regions as warm as +11°C or 3° to 4°C warmer than the long-term mean (1982-present).  According to paleoclimate studies, today’s abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been observed in the last 2000 years.  The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness.  On 7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering 8% less area than the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic sea ice minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean.

Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the top of the average glacier.

Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of 2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the west Antarctic coast.  In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole observed since 1988.

Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016 to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual values observed; these high anomalies have been associated with widespread coral bleaching.  The most recent global coral bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most destructive such even on record. Global integrals of 0-700-mand 0-2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in 2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record, rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average.

In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly above the 1981-2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm.  Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 kmh/h.  Maria caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands, including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto Rico.  Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were all particularly quiet.

Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900.  Across India, heavy rain and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed around 800 lives.  In August and September, above-normal precipitation triggers the most devastating floods in more than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolivar and Delta Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods that displaced more than 100,o00 people.

Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years on record, respectively.  Devastating fires impacted British Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and grassland, due in part to the region’s driest summer on record.  In the United States, and extremely western wildfire season burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18billion tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.”

This is the abstract to the full publication!  The earth has been warming. What is the cause? Is it a natural occurrence, or a major influence by manmade greenhouse gases increasing in the atmosphere, albeit small amounts. The direct relationship from the current warming to the increased greenhouse gases must be seriously considered and the evidence and facts point in the direction of this warming being manmade.

Have a great day. We will look into the cycling pattern on 41 Action News tonight. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link to the blog:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

 

Strong Cold Front & Possible Snowflakes

Good morning bloggers,

It was down to a bone chilling 19 degrees in Casper, Wyoming his morning, and 20 degrees in Denver, CO:

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This cold front is heading our way and will move through later this morning with the temperatures beginning to fall.  The air will be coming from almost due north, so we will not have the air coming front Grand Island, for example, but rather Fort Dodge, IA. This will likely keep our temperatures from dropping to below 32 degrees tonight with the brisk north wind not allowing any low lying areas from dropping into the 20s. If there are any wind protected areas, then a freeze is possible. This is why the NWS has not issued a freeze warning for KC yet.

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There is a freeze warning to our north, however, so northwestern Missouri and far northeastern KS locations do have a Freeze Warning.

There is an area of precipitation organizing to our northwest and it is snowing over a large area of Nebraska, touching the Kansas border.  Will Kansas City see any snowflakes? The conditions are not favorable for any snowflakes reaching the surface until well after sunset tonight, and this will be when the precipitation is about to end.  It will be something to monitor closely as the Chiefs play New England in Boston.

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Forecast Maps:

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The rain/snow/sleet line does get to the south side of the KC metro area before midnight. There is a chance that a dusting to less than 1″ of snow may accumulate on grassy surfaces north of KC later today, but with temperatures hovering just above freezing there likely will not be any accumulation on roads, so no travel problems are expected.  What are the chances that KC, that we see our first snowflakes tonight? Well, I would put it at70% chance north of I-70, with lesser chances farther south and east.

New England Tonight:

It will be clear, with light winds in Boston with temperatures dropping from the 50s into the 40s.  It could not be better weather for a big game. Go Patrick “Michael Jordan” Mahomes and the KC Chiefs tonight. Will we be 6-0 by 11 PM tonight? I think so. My prediction is 34-23 Chiefs.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Nice Saturday, Big Changes Sunday

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are tracking another system for Sunday and it could bring the first snowflakes of the season to some locations. The weather pattern is rather active. The rain system from Friday is now over New York city. The remnants of Pacific tropical system Sergio are bringing heavy rain to parts of Oklahoma and Texas. The systems for Sunday are now located in Montana and southern California. Pieces of each system will combine with a cold front to bring big changes Sunday.

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Also, where is Michael? Saturday morning it was exiting Newfoundland and headed to Europe as a post tropical system.

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Now let’s get to the weekend weather.

SATURDAY: It will be a nice day with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will reach 55°-60° depending on how much sun your location receives.

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SUNDAY MORNING: Our area will be mostly dry with temperatures 45°-50°. You cannot rule out a shower or two. Rain, snow, wind and falling temperatures will be occurring across Kansas and Nebraska.

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SUNDAY NOON: Rain and wind will increase as temperatures decrease. Snow may be occurring or mixed with the rain in the northwest corner of Missouri.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: It will be windy and cold with winds gusting from the north at 10-25 mph. Temperatures will be in the 30s with wind chill values in the 20s. There will be areas of light to moderate rain. Snowflakes and/or sleet may be mixed in, especially north of KC. Temperatures will be mostly above freezing, so roads will be wet.

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MONDAY MORNING: The storm system will be gone as the sky clears and winds decrease. Lows will be around 30°. So, yes we may see our first freeze. Wind chill values will stay in the 20s. What about black ice? We do not expect any issues as surfaces will dry before they have a chance to freeze. Also, some locations may not drop below freezing.

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The average first freeze date in our area ranges from around October 10th to 20th. So, a freeze on October 15th is average. Remember to protect the delicate plants.

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Here is a snowfall forecast for Sunday and Monday.

The KC area may see a few snowflakes or ice pellets just as the precipitation ends Sunday evening. A dusting, mainly on grassy surfaces, is possible in far northwest Missouri.

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The best chance for accumulating snow will be across Wyoming, Colorado and western sections of Nebraska and Kansas. 1″ to 6″ will be possible in those locations.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

Over 148 Million Seconds Since Our Last 3″ Snow

Good morning bloggers,

It has been over 4 years, 8 months, and 9 days since KC had its last 3″ of snow one date.  February 4, 2014 was the last time we had that much snow, which means we have gone four full winters of bad weather patterns in a row.  This streak will continue for another 45 days or longer, as we only average 1″ of snow between now and the end of November.  Here is a picture of that last 3″ snow:

Sunny The Weather Dog wasn’t even born yet. This picture shows my wonderful dog Stormy from four years ago showing a scene we have not seen since this February 4, 2014 storm.  Will this winter finally break this trend? Well, it is too early to call, and look below.

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This is the NAM model, and the other models are similar.  This shows the rain changing to heavy snow just northwest of KC. Remember it is only October 12th.  October 22, 1996 was the October Surprise when a storm much stronger than this one produced enough cold air to combine with the precipitation shield to produce 6 to 8 inches of snow, which shows that it can happen at this time of the year.  It is something to monitor and share together.

Today, rain is moving in. It will be close to having snowflakes over northern Missouri today as well.  Bundle up. Go Chiefs on Sunday, and have a great day!

Gary

Michael Destruction & Possible Snowflakes In KC

Good morning bloggers,

“It feels like a nightmare,” Linda Albrecht, a councilwoman in Mexico Beach Florida, said of the catastrophic damage in her town. “Somebody needs to come up and shake you and wake you up.”

Major Hurricane Michael is the top weather story.  Fatalities appear to be very low, and this is incredible given the strength of this system. As of my writing this story, only two deaths were reported. Unfortunately the destruction is considerable in many cities as Major Hurricane Michael slammed ashore on Wednesday.

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Michael began forming in the old LRC on October 2.  It then got organized just as the new cycling pattern was settling in, and it then got caught in the new cycling weather pattern that we will be experiencing for the next year.  It was fascinating to watch unfold as it entered this years Weather2020 forecast hot spot for the season. All four land falling named storm systems hit the predicted hot spot from last December.  Now, the jet stream will be strengthening and dropping south in the next few weeks as winter approaches. There will likely be two or three more named storms this season, and the chance of another one hitting the United States will get lower and lower as the weeks go by.

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This map above shows the 500 mb flow valid Saturday morning.  This developing pattern has my attention this weekend. Could Kansas City see some early snowflakes this year?  There is a disturbance forecast to develop and intensify over Idaho and drop south.  Some separation in the flow is predicted by some of the models as you can see below:

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Separation in the flow develops, and an upper level low tries to form just west of Denver, CO on Sunday.  This puts KC back into southwest flow.  If there is enough separation, and that trough (almost upper low) strengthens just a bit more, it will create an organized band of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night.  Some of the models, including this European Model below, is modeling a band of snow as the precipitation is coming to an end by early Monday morning. The blue shows the precipitation type as snow. Temperatures are forecast to be above freezing, so no accumulation would be expected, and we just need to watch this closely.

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Before this storm arrives, there is another system coming our way tonight and Friday. It will be difficult to not turn on the furnace tomorrow. I haven’t turned mine on yet, have you?  Take a look at this:

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This first system, on the heals of a very wet beginning to this years pattern, also shows some potential for snowflakes over northern Missouri Friday.  It likely will be too warm for this one. That pink dashed line shows where the 540 thickness line is, and that is often the rain/snow line.  We can also see Michael intensifying as it moves out over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean, and Sergio moving across the Gulf of California. What a fascinating pattern we have to monitor!

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  The sun should break out. It was down to 40 degrees early this morning with a few spots in the 30s.  Expect northwest winds 5-15 mph. High:  51°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds. A 90% chance of rain by morning. Low:  42°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain.  Rainfall amounts up around 0.25″ are expected. High:  46°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny. High:  57°
  • Sunday:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snowflakes by Monday morning.  High: 41°

Have you read some of my forecasts in the past week. I haven’t written anything like these in years for the KC region.

Big Changes Next Week:

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This last map shows the weather pattern on Sunday night, when the Chiefs will host a Sunday Night Football game against Cincinnati.  The Bengals come to town and I can only imagine how loud it will be as we cheer on our superstar Patrick Mahomes as he leads the Chiefs at home a week from Sunday. We have a big battle in New England this Sunday, and the weather looks good!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let’s share in our weather experience by going to the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great day!  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Share In The Weather2020 Blog

Gary

Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael, 15″ Of Rain Near KC, & What’s Next?

Good morning bloggers,

Topping the weather news is powerful CAT 4 Major Hurricane Michael taking aim on Florida this morning.  This verifies another incredible prediction made by Weather2020 months ago. If you remember in May, Weather2020 put out a press release with this prediction:  “there is a 90 percent chance that Florida will have at least one hurricane make landfall this season.  Applying this innovative technique, the target hot spot for hurricane activity near the United States this season is over the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida“.  The predicted “hot spot”, which is the location each year where Weather2020 predicts will have the most likely hurricane landfalls, extended from North Carolina to New Orleans.  It was also predicted that Texas would have a very quiet hurricane season, since it was not in the hot spot, and this was an important prediction after last years, also predicted 55 days before it formed to happen within five days of the eclipse, Major Hurricane Harvey.  Major Hurricane Michael has become quite powerful and may still reach CAT 5 strength.

Major Hurricane Michael at 6:40 AM Central Time (7:40 AM eastern):

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This prediction was made in January (left) to form around September 1st in the cycling pattern described by the LRC.  And, this is now the fourth time this season a storm has gone almost directly over this predicted spot. Tropical Storm Gordon, as highly predicted 8- months in advance; Subtropical Storm Alberto which formed right on cycle in May; Hurricane Nate, around a year ago; and Major Hurricane Michael.  Another incredible prediction by using the LRC!

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There has never been a CAT 4 storm to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle, and it appears this will be the first one ever.  Imagine having months time to prepare, as they did have by using the LRC prediction.

Now imagine getting 15 inches of rain near KC during the first 10 days of October.  This is what just happened.  The weather pattern had the massive change, and I think we will all agree that we had massively different results than anything we have experienced in the past few years. Oh, we have had isolated rainfall amounts that were excessive, but this wide spread? No way!  Olathe may have gotten that one more hundredth to reach 10″ of rain overnight.

Rainfall Totals as of yesterday evening: 

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A few spots have come in at over a foot of rain in this past week and even some reports of 15 inches around Overland Park.  I raced back from Las Vegas to get here in time to track the band of heavy showers and thunderstorms and there was one tornado warning. Maybe there should have been a second one for Johnson county as we have had some videos come in showing what appears to be a tornado on the ground just west of I-35 between Olathe and Shawnee, KS.  You can see a well defined hook echo in this fast moving small cell at 3:30 PM yesterday.  We showed this on the air, and there was never a warning for it, and maybe it should have been warned?

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Conditions were favorable for tornadoes yesterday, and take a look at the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center:

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There were 26 tornado reports, and very few hail reports.  I thought tornadoes were the main threat yesterday, and this is what ended up happening.  Okay, so what is next in line?

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with some misty drizzle this morning.  High:  55°
  • Thursday: The low will be near 36°, then sunny and nice.  High:  56°
  • Friday: Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain. High:  49°
  • New England Forecast in Boston on Sunday night:  It looks great for Sunday Night Football with light winds and seasonal temperatures in Boston Sunday night! Go Chiefs!
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This forecast map above shows Hurricane Michael, still organized on Friday, Tropical Storm Sergio crossing over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, and another rain event, a cool rain event this time predicted to be centered over the wet grounds around our region in Kansas City. Temperatures are likely to be in the 4os Friday with this rain, which is now up to a 90% chance of happening. It will be time to turn on the furnace.

It is looking nice with light winds on Sunday night for the big game between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and New England. A Chiefs victory would put them in the drivers seat for home field throughout the playoffs. I know it is early, and it is fun to watch this team play lead by Patrick Mahomes.  He has gotten so popular that NBC is having a second Sunday night in a row featuring the Chiefs when the Bengals come to town a week from Sunday. A big test is ahead of this team.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and let us know if you have any questions.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 blog

Gary

Severe Weather, Snow and Michael

Good Tuesday night bloggers,

The weather is quite active across the USA as we are tracking a big storm system now moving out of the Rockies and a category 3 hurricane.

At 4 PM there was a large Tornado Watch in effect, but luckily no warnings.

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The line of thunderstorms that moved through KC between 4 PM and 5 PM ends the severe threat as it tracks across your location. Snow is falling across northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and western Nebraska.  What a fall storm!

We will see periods of rain through the night as it tracks north behind the line in association with the main storm lifting out of the Rockies.

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Here is the latest on Michael. It looks like Michael will enter the Florida panhandle as a category 3 around 1 PM Wednesday. It will likely enter between Panama City and Fort Walton beach.

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Now lets get to the forecast.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: The cold front will be moving by and we will see temperatures drop to around 50°. A shower may be lingering early in the morning.

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Snow will be flying across the northern Plains as our rain comes to an end.

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While snow is flying in the northern Plains, hurricane Michael will be nearing the Florida panhandle.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: It will be breezy, dry and cool with a mostly cloudy sky around here. Micheal will be slamming the Florida panhandle.

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THURSDAY: This will be the nicest day of the week as a smaller system in the Rockies heads our way for Friday. Friday may see light rain and highs in the 40s.

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Have a great night and Wednesday.

Jeff Penner

Flooding and Michael

Good Tuesday bloggers,

It has been quite a few days in the the area. We have wiped out the exceptional drought and the 7″ rainfall deficit at KCI. That is really incredible when you think about it.

Here is a radar estimated rainfall total map. A large area of 5″ to 10″ of rain has occurred from northern MO to southeast Kansas. A few locations have seen 10″ to 12″ of rain! So, it will not take much new rain to create flooding.

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There are Flood and Flash Flood watches from Canada to Mexico! The light green are flood and river flood warnings. There is also a hurricane warning along the Florida coast as Micheal heads north from the southern Gulf of Mexico.

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Why are we having all of this rain? First, in the upper levels there is a strong storm system, upper level low over four corners. The low is barely moving and sending a series of disturbances southwest to northeast from Mexico to Canada along a wavering front. This matches the flood watches and warnings. You can see Michael gaining strength west of Cuba.

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When you have the disturbances in the upper levels tracking parallel to a wavering front, you get the set up for torrential rain. Monday evening the front was just west of I-35. It has been drifting west and east for the last few days. That is why it seems cold one minute and muggy the next. Temperatures ranged from the 70s to low 80s east of the front to 40s and 50s to the west.

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There was a large area of rain and thunderstorms along and behind the front. You can see the front on this radar. It is the line from southeast of Wichita to near KC. It was drifting east, so we expect the rain and thunderstorms to shift east 50-100 miles by morning.

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This is the additional rainfall forecast through Wednesday. We are in a 1″ to 4″ rainfall band. You can see a reflection of Michael in the southeast USA. Some of the heavy rain will affect locations that Florence flooded.

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The big storm in the western USA will lift out into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. This will take the front and rain chances with it as it merges with Michael. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

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Have a great Tuesday.

Jeff Penner