Quantcast

No Tornadoes In Oklahoma Or Kansas In 2018

Good morning bloggers,

We will discuss another incredible record that is about to be broken later this week on this rainy Sunday morning. But, first, take a look at radar:

Screen Shot 2018-04-22 at 6.43.04 AM

Kansas City is on the northern edge of the comma head of this storm. The storm ended up falling right into place southeast of Kansas City, and the comma head of rain finally backed into the KC metro area this morning. It was moving west in the cyclonic circulation:

Screen Shot 2018-04-22 at 6.42.43 AM

There was a rather well defined north and west edge, so many areas will stay dry, if you live up north. On the south side of the metro, it is a nice area of rain spinning west around the circulation, but amounts will still be fairly low. KCI Airport was still sitting at 4.68″ for the year, which is way below the average of 7.45″ by todays date.

This cooler pattern has lead to an interesting tornado statistic:

oklahoma_tornado_april

Weather.com posted an article discussing this record that is about to be broken, and here is what they discussed and suggested is the reason:

Since 1950, however, there has never been a year with zero tornadoes recorded from January through April in Oklahoma. The National Weather Service in Tulsa noted earlier this week that the record for the latest start to the tornado season is April 26, which occurred in 1962.  With generally cooler-than-average temperatures expected, conditions through the end of the month do not look particularly favorable for tornadoes in Oklahoma, so a new record looks very likely.

One reason for the lack of tornadoes and severe weather this year has been the persistent upper-level pattern in place. This pattern has brought a southward dip in the jet stream to much of the central U.S., which has allowed colder-than-average conditions to dominate these regions.

Or, they could just say “the LRC”.  And, then they go on into something that isn’t quite right, “The combination of colder temperatures, less moisture and a more northerly storm track have resulted in fewer severe thunderstorms and tornadoes through mid-April.”  Actually, the storm track has not been more northerly. If this were the case, then this would not be a cold pattern. It isn’t that the storm track is farther north, but that the center of the driest region over northwestern Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle has been near the quasi-permanent anchor ridge this season, as proposed in the peer reviewed paper.  This pattern will continue, but as temperatures warm up, there will be increasing chances for some severe weather over Oklahoma.

Now, add this statistic to this record. Kansas has not had a tornado either. There hasn’t been one tornado in Kansas or Oklahoma yet in 2018.  Kansas averages around 12 by now.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Join the conversation over on the blog at Weather2020 and we will look ahead in tomorrows blog.

Gary

Complex Saturday Storm System, No Snow Though

Good Saturday bloggers,

This is the first weekend blog I have written this month where snow is not in the forecast. Now, there is a storm system and rain is likely. It is a complex system as our area is on the eastern and northern edge of the storm system.

An upper level low has been tracking east across the Rockies and has brought some beneficial rain to the wildfire and drought stricken areas of the western Plains, more on that in a minute. This upper low is going to reorganize while shifting to the southeast. This has halted the eastward progression of the steady rain today, keeping it about 50-100 miles west of the state line. Tonight as the new system forms, it looks like the rain will spread north to around highway 36.

1

An extreme to exceptional drought is ongoing from southwest Kansas to west Texas and New Mexico. There was an outbreak of wildfires in these locations earlier in the week, so this radar image from Friday night is a sight for sore eyes.  Amarillo has received close to 0.50″ of rain the most they have seen in one day in 6 months! The drought is quite close to KC, but at this time we expect to stay just under drought criteria.

7

Rain is in the weekend forecast for KC, so let’s go through the details.

NOW TO 5  PM: It will be mostly dry with a few showers and sprinkles possible, especially west and south of KC. Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s, warmest in locations that do not see rain. The rain to the south will begin a northward trek after 5 PM.

2

SATURDAY NIGHT: The rain will have spread north to around highway 36 with KC in light to moderate rain. Pockets of heavy rain will be found to the south as temperatures drop to the 40s.

3

SUNDAY MORNING: It will be a rainy night into Sunday morning. This data has heavier rain in KC, but we shall see if that occurs as it may stay just south. This is great news for yards and farms that need a nice drink of water and also we can wash the salt off the roads.

4

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain and drizzle will be tapering off with highs in the 40s and 50s. Again, this is the first Sunday this month with no snow, amazing!

5

RAINFALL FORECAST: It looks like a trace to .10″ will occur north of highway 36. .10″ to .65″ will occur between highway 36 and I-70. .50″ to 1″ will occur south of I-70 with more farther south.

6

So, this storm system is giving our area the best of both worlds. The Saturday outdoor events (Garmin race, Head for the Cure bike ride) will occur in mostly dry conditions and most of our yards and farms will get a nice drink of water tonight and Sunday. Those of us, myself included, that fertilized Friday, are looking forward to the rain tonight. It will be a nice and steady rain, perfect for washing in fertilizer and soaking in.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

Some Big Changes Are Showing Up

Good morning bloggers,

The sun is shining on this Friday morning.  A storm system is approaching. And, the jet stream is showing a major shift to the north in the next few days. This northward shift would finally get winter to move out! It has been a long and cold April so far for many of us, and I have been hearing about it. “Why is it so cold?” is what I keep hearing.  Well, we are about to balance it out just a bit.  This next storm is caught in the change, and KC has been on the edge of the model output precipitation, if you have been paying close attention. Just a slight shift north and then suddenly we would be in the rain shield for Saturday. When you are on the edge of the storm, then it is the hardest area to predict the weather, and KC is likely on the edge of more storm systems than most areas of the world.  It is just a geographical fact of where KC is located, and this storm fits the mold.

1

This map above shows the latest GFS model from the overnight run. You can see the northern edge near KC. Some of the drought areas to our southwest will likely get a good drink of water, but they will need more. Here is the upper level flow forecast:

2

The track of this storm shifted a bit north.  This should bring the rain into KC, and create the conditions for our fourth straight bad weather weekend in Kansas City.  So, enjoy today, as it will be a gorgeous Friday.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny! A gorgeous day with light winds and a high of 64°
  • Tonight:  Increasing clouds with a good chance of rain along and south of I-70 by morning.   Low:  43°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of rain south of I-70, and a nearly 0% chance up near the Iowa border. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s where its raining.
  • Sunday:  The rain may wrap in from the southeast around the exiting storm and then it will end. High: upper 50s to lower 60s.

I had a flood last night. Yep, I left the bathtub running while I was watching the new Netflix series, episode 1, of Lost In Space. And, disaster. So, I had a flood last night, but I can’t do anything about it now.  It’s time to call the insurance company. Have a great day!

Gary

The Next Big Severe Weather Risk

Good morning bloggers,

Surviving The Storm is on 41 Action News at 6:30 PM tonight:  We will discuss the dates when severe weather will set up, the spring forecast, new radar technology & much more! You can watch it streaming on KSHB.com

It has been one wild month of April.  The jet stream is showing signs of weakening just a bit and retreating north, and this will lead to some warming as winter loosens its grip on North America.  Here is an April calendar showing this wild month of April here in KC. Just look at the extremes, and I didn’t put down there that it was 31 degrees for the high temperature earlier this week, on Sunday. This smashed the record lowest high temperature by ten degrees.  The other lows on this calendar show the other records, and it has snowed three straight Sundays, which is just incredible.

2

Todays Video Blog – We look into the end of next week where one of our targeted dates for severe thunderstorms is now beginning to show up on the models:

Video Blog April 19 2018 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Kansas City is now way below average on rainfall. The pressure will be on the end of next weeks set ups to produce heavy rain, as you can see KC is now over 2″ below average for the year.

1

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog over on Weather2020 and we can have a great conversation today. I have meetings until later this afternoon, so I will check in when I get the time if you have any questions.  Have a great Thursday!

Gary

The Next Storm May Be Dry In KC Too

Good morning bloggers,

Another snowstorm is tracking across South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa today, clipping northeastern Nebraska. This is a rather strong, but smaller scale storm system that is tracking rather rapidly to the east.  Here is the radar image from 7:45 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 7.28.57 AM

As this system spins into the Great Lakes states today, the next storm system has its “eyes” on the Rocky Mountains and plains.  Take a look at the European Model forecast for total precipitation between now and next Monday:

Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 7.23.44 AM

A couple things to notice on this rainfall forecast are the white area over the KC metro, and the rainfall pattern to the south and west. The winter wheat crop needs a big drink of water and right now, and it appears many areas across Oklahoma and Kansas, into western Texas will get that drink. Amarillo, TX has had two days of rain since October 13th for a total of 0.25″.  This model somehow has the region near Amarillo getting some low amounts, but other models have a lot more rain. And, the Kansas City area on every model has amounts ranging from nothing, as you can see here, to under a tenth of an inch on the GFS. Only the GFS brings any rain at all to KC from this system.

These two storm systems show how frustrating it has been for KC once again. One storm is tracking one state to the north this morning and this next one is going to track around 1/2 to 1 state to the south. We will go more in-depth into the pattern in tomorrows blog.

A cold front moved through early this morning, so it is back into the chilling air. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

A Dry Storm For KC

Good morning,

This wild April continues! I hope everyone is having a great start to this Tuesday.  As we go about our busy days, we have this storm to track. It is a dry storm for Kansas City, but anything but dry for areas just around a half state to the north.  Take a look at this surface forecast map valid at 3 PM this afternoon:

1

A rather strong surface cyclone will be developing as an upper level storm intensifies over the Rocky Mountains and tracks over the western plains tonight. As this system tracks east, heavy snow will be developing over the states just north of KC. This would normally be a major severe weather producer, and this storm does not lack low level moisture.

day1otlk_1300From the Storm Prediction Center:  NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST:  Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated through early Wednesday.  Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across the United States today. A couple of late afternoon thunderstorms might form in the central high plains/Black Hills vicinity where scant buoyancy could develop near an eastward-ejecting shortwave trough.  Greater likelihood will exist for isolated thunderstorms across the Mid-Missouri Valley tonight into early Wednesday. Here, strong forcing for ascent via low-level warm air advection and mid-level divergence should overcome robust convective inhibition and yield a few thunderstorms along the northern periphery of the Great Plains cap.  Small hail might accompany the strongest updrafts as CAPE will probably remain weak where parcels can freely convect.

So, a thunderstorm is not out of the question, and a few may form. What is fascinating, and this has happened several times in this years LRC, is that the heavier rain and possible thunderstorms that do form this evening just to our northwest, will then track into the colder air and turn into heavy snow. This actually happened in Green Bay a couple of days ago and this is how they had their second biggest snowstorm in their recorded history at just under 24″.

On that surface map, the red line is the warm front, and the yellow line is the dry line.  The warm front is a big factor for KC’s weather today.  South of the front it will reach into the 80s with dew points in the 60s. North of the front bands of clouds will likely form and it will stay in the 50s near KC. The warm front may pass through this evening and we would then have a temperature jump and humidity increase for a few hours before the cold front moves through by early Wednesday. This is just a fascinating storm to track today, but it is a dry storm for KC.  Could we see a rain shower? Sure we may, but that would be it, a five minute rain shower and that is a big maybe, so I have kept the chance under 10%.

2

3

NWS

The NWS tweeted out this graphic above. Three of the coldest April high temperatures ever have happened in 2018. April 1 and 2 came in at 33 and 34 degrees respectively, and the fifth coldest high temperature in April Kansas City recorded history happened on Sunday with a high of 31°. That record really stands out as it may have come in fifth, but it was the latest date by 6 days, and it broke the record by TEN degrees. I am not sure how many times a record gets broken by 10, but it has to be a very rare event.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  This is an interesting and quite difficult forecast. The models that form no clouds (RUC) have highs near 70 degrees in KC this afternoon. There is a strong warm front forming and approaching, but it will stay south of KC all day. So, I am expecting the cloudless models to be wrong and I am forecasting a high near 60°.  Expect east winds at 5-15 mph increasing.
  • Tonight:  The warm front may briefly move through with temperatures near 60 if that happens. The wind will shift to the west and northwest and become gusty by morning. Low:  43°
  • Wednesday:  Partly cloudy, windy, and colder. High:  53°
  • Looking ahead:  A weekend storm will be approaching, but this system has been trending farther and farther south. Kansas City appears to be on the north side of what may be a rather wet storm.  Some models have no rain at all. This has been the trend. If it were a snowstorm, we would have already discussed possible high accumulations, only to be left disappointed once again.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here and join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great day!

Gary

Record Breaking Cold April

Good morning bloggers,

The wild April weather ride continues.  Take a look at these past 8 days.

The past 8 days in Kansas City:

  • Sunday, April 8:  High of 38° with 0.8″ of snow. Huge snowflakes!
  • Monday, April 9:  High of 42°
  • Tuesday, April 10:  High of 61°
  • Wednesday, April 11:  High of 80°
  • Thursday, April 12:  High of 82°
  • Friday, April 13:  High of 83°, severe thunderstorms erupt with hail over parts of the KC metro area. One small Supercell tracked just northwest of downtown
  • Saturday, April 14:  High of 52° at midnight, and then SNOW!
  • Sunday, April 15:  Record shattering high of 31°, 10 degrees below the previous record coldest high temperature of 41° in 1993.

And, then this morning we broke the record low, but at least the sun is coming out.  This mornings low broke the record by at least 2 degrees. The low was 26° as of 6:55 AM.

1

Look at the surface forecast valid at 7 PM Tuesday.  There will be a strong dry line tracking into western Oklahoma, separating very dry air with dew points in the single digits from a humid air mass surging north across Oklahoma with dew points near 60°.  Conditions are not favorable for thunderstorms, however, with this compact storm moving out into the plains.  Snow will be developing north of KC however. This second map, below, shows the cyclone moving over the Mississippi River by Wednesday morning with some heavy snow developing over Iowa.

2

3

After this moves by, we can look ahead to the next storm, this weekend.  The models are all over the place on the weekend storm.  We just had three days of severe weather tracking from the plains into the east coast last night.  For Kansas City, we continue to be on this rather wild April ride from snow to 80s back to snow again.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  We continue to have a great weather discussion on the blog over at Weather2020. Read everyones comments and join in the conversation if you would like. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

 

 

Snow On Three Straight Sundays In April

Good morning bloggers,

Were you up early like me on this Sunday morning. Here it is 4:30 AM and it is snowing. It is snowing enough to turn everything white outside and it is the third Sunday in a row with snow: April 1st, 8th, and 15th!  Without even checking records, I know this has never happened before in KC.  Let’s see if KCI comes in with 0.1″ of snow. If they do, it will be the eleventh measurable snow of the season.  I will write it in here if it becomes official.

4:30 AM Radar:

1

Now, it can’t happen again next weekend can it?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25

What is this? Another major storm next Saturday morning. Let’s see how it lines up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation or read the comments as we all learn together.  Now it is back to looking at the snow.

Gary

Crazy April Weather

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have been tracking a large storm system across the middle part of the USA that has brought severe weather and a blizzard. This is the storm we have been targeting for weeks, using the LRC. It is the reason we chose April 13-17 for severe weather to occur from the eastern Plains to Midwest through the delta region and Tennessee Valley.

We came rather close to a tornado in downtown Kansas City Friday night, now snow is on the way. Click on the video for more with the main blog below.

Close to a tornado in downtown Kansas City

Here are all of the storm reports from Friday and Saturday morning, winter and spring. There are snow reports from Colorado to Montana into the Dakotas with hail, wind and tornado reports from Minnesota south to the Gulf coast.

1

Here are the severe weather reports. There was non-thunderstorm wind damage in Colorado and a few wildfires due to dryness and high wind in Texas.

2

The severe weather reports around here were mostly hail. Olathe was the winner, coming in with 2″ diameter sized hail at 5:55 PM Friday. There were also a few reports of non-thunderstorm wind damage as well.

4

The tornado reports were found in western Arkansas to extreme northeast Texas and northern sections of Louisiana.

6

What is next? This big storm system will track off to the east with new severe weather east of the Mississippi river and snow/wind across Nebraska and the Dakotas, extending south into northern Kansas. Our area will be windy and cold with rain and snow showers increasing this afternoon from the northwest.

7

SATURDAY NIGHT: It will be windy and cold with light snow as temperatures drop to the 20s and wind chill values fall to around 10°. The roads will be mostly fine with bridges and overpasses possibly becoming slick. Even if roads are damp to wet, that could cause black ice on bridges and overpasses when temperatures are in the 20s. Main roads will only get slick if the snow comes down hard enough as a strong wind will blow the snow around and the surfaces will be warmer, but that being said, use caution if you are out tonight.

8

SUNDAY MORNING: This is nuts! Lows will be in the low to mid 20s with winds gusting 30-40 mph. This makes wind chill values in the single digits at times! The snow will be mostly over, but any snow after midnight will make it three straight Sunday’s in April with snow in a season that received under 10″ of snow. There may be slick spots on the roads.

9

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be cloudy, windy and cold with temperatures 30 degrees below average as highs struggle to 40° and wind chill values stay in the teens and 20s.

10

MONDAY MORNING: We will have yet another hard freeze as the sky clears and the wind diminishes.  Wow! Is this the last freeze of the season? Well, it looks like the last hard freeze, but we may still see a night or two around 30°. Will these be the last snowflakes of the season? Most likely, but this is a crazy pattern and it can snow in May!

11

Have a great weekend and it will be 70° by Tuesday.

Jeff Penner

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

3:30 PM Update:

Tornado Watch!

1

A tornado watch was issued, and is in effect until 9 PM.  Let’s track this area of thunderstorms that formed early.  Will there be more development later?

Previous Entry Below:

Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms today. We always have to pay close attention to these risks. Tornadoes kill, and it is something that should never be taken lightly. At the same time, tornadoes are small and I am not sure what the percentage of people that live near KC has ever even seen one tornado, but it may be much lower than you would think. I am going to guess that it is around 10 to 25 percent at the most. Jeff Penner has never seen one and he is 47 years old, born and raised in KC. I have only seen one, and that was in Sitka, KS on a wild tornado chase in 1999.  At the same time 75 tornadoes happen annually in Kansas and around 45 in Missouri, so they will happen, but they just are so small that if you are not near one, you may never see one.  Again, they are deadly, and very scary for so many, unless you are a storm chasing.

The Set-Up:

Screen Shot 2018-04-13 at 6.54.59 AM

These two maps are the same one. I just circled the area to monitor for development. Usually thunderstorms will break through the cap and then we have a few supercells and it could be very bad with all types of severe weather possible. Sometimes, nothing forms at all in these set ups in this region I have circled. The short range models have not been able to break the cap and it is something to monitor. Well, of course we will be very closely.

2

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Now to 4 PM: Periods of clouds with a chance of a few weak showers or thunderstorms this morning.  The chance of measurable rain is 40% mostly along and southeast of I-35.  High:  78°
  • 4 PM to 10 PM:  There is a 30% chance of a severe thunderstorm at any one location. The risk would last for around 30 minutes if thunderstorms form.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy with the wind shifting to the west and northwest.  Turning colder and windy conditions continuing.  Low:  45°
  • Saturday:Periods of clouds and colder with a 20% chance of showers. High:  51°
  • Saturday night and Sunday:Cloudy with a few snowflakes or raindrops possible in the morning. The chance of measurable precipitation is just 20%. High:  45°]

Severe Weather Risk:

3

This is a rather strong upper level storm as you can see above. For it to snow in KC, we would need that upper low to track south  or just east of KC. If it tracks north or northeast of KC we will not see more than a few rain drops of snowflakes on the back side Saturday night and Sunday.

day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

There is a lot to monitor today.  Forecasting the weather in KC is once again quite challenging.  Let’s see how it comes together later today.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we track this together.

Have a great day!

Gary