Crazy Monday and More Thunderstorms Ahead

Good Monday bloggers,

This has been an odd day of weather.  We were almost certain it was going to rain, but just how it lays out and evolves is very tough to predict more than a few hours or less in advance.  Today is a prime example  of how tough it is to forecast the weather.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall total from Monday.  Thunderstorms formed around 11 am to noon along and just west of I-35.  These thunderstorms trained from southwest to northeast.  2″-4″ rainfall totals are found from Olathe to midtown.  There were many reports of high water.

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Now, here is the amazing picture.  There are 5″-8″ rainfall estimates from Gladstone to Downtown KC.  This is crazy since most of the rain fell in a 2 hour period!  There was much flooding in Gladstone.

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This evening will be calm and drier as this disturbance moves by.  We will then turn our attention to western Kansas where there is a surface low and weak warm front extending east along I-70.  Overnight as the low-level jet kicks in, new showers and thunderstorms will likely form north of this pseudo warm front.  Also, some supercells may form this evening out in western Kansas.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The overnight thunderstorms will likely congeal into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and head our way.  If this MCS really gets going we could see some quarter sized hail and brief winds over 55 mph.  We also would see more heavy rain.  This is something will have to watch later tonight to see how it is evolving.

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TUESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: SPC has removed most of the viewing area from the slight risk as the morning thunderstorms will stabilize the rest of the day as new thunderstorms form in western Kansas.  These thunderstorms may roll in Wednesday morning.  So, if we do not see minimal severe weather Tuesday morning, the threat for tomorrow is very low.

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We will have to take the forecast the next 6-10 days one day at a time as each day has it’s own unique thunderstorm set up.  Now, we can say that many locations the next 10 days may see a new 3″-6″ of rain with some spots receiving 6″-9″!

Stay dry and have a great week.

Jeff

A stormy stretch of days

After days of talk, were are on the eve of a week full of t-storm chances. Not expecting severe weather on Monday, but once we get into Tuesday that will change. The latest information still suggests we’re in for round after round of storms, with a series of MCS events taking shape. This means overnight storm complexes that advance our way & then fizzle out. They will leave behind various outflow boundaries, which will serve as trigger points for thunderstorms later in the day. This cycle should continue through the week.
I try to break this down more in the video blog:

The bottom line: have a way to get alert information if/when it’s issued as this could be a stormy week.
-JD

Make the most of Sunday

It’s not often the atmosphere (and mother nature) gives us a perfect weekend in late May. I think this is a sign! Get out and make the most of Sunday because once we get into next week, the sky with be rockin’ and outdoor plans will likely get shelved. We are heading into our wettest and stormiest time of the year. It should be no surprise we have chances for thunderstorms each day next week.

Get my latest thoughts in this video blog.

Oh, and don’t be surprised to hear a shower or two this evening into the overnight period.
-JD

More Thunderstorms Around the Corner

Good Saturday bloggers,

This weekend will see mostly calm weather with highs in the 70s today and around 80° Sunday.  This is the first time we have reached the 70s in a week.  The average high is 76°, so we are due for this warm up.  A sprinkle is possible this evening as clouds increase, but outdoor activities should not be affected.  Sunday looks mostly dry with perhaps a morning sprinkle and evening thunderstorm.  Most of the activity will stay west.  Below we will show the active pattern that is around the corner.

DROUGHT MONITOR APRIL 15TH: Look at the drought that was growing.  This was beginning to have an impact on the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop in the western Plains.  It was getting dry around here with high fire dangers every other day.  We were 2-3″ below average rainfall.

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DROUGHT MONITOR MAY 17-21: The drought has been wiped out by a month of widespread and beneficial rain, putting us 2-3″ above average for the year.  The pattern is going to remain active the next 10 days.

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UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK: A trough will be located in the southwest USA.  This will put a southwest flow across much of the Plains and Midwest.  There will be a series of disturbances in this southwest flow.  A very warm and humid air mass will be in place from KC south and a cooler air mass will reside to the north.  We will mostly be in the warm and muggy air.  This sets up a battle ground where thunderstorms will be possible every 1-2 days.

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ACTIVE NEXT WEEK: So, every 1-2 days there will be a chance of thunderstorms, some severe.  This forecast is going to be day by day as the timing of disturbances and placement of surface fronts will be tough to forecast more than 24 hours in advance.  The first round of thunderstorms arrives Monday.  This does not look severe, but we could see some heavy rain.  This active weather will last into Memorial day weekend.  Now, this is to be expected as May 20-June 5 are, on average, the wettest days of the year.  So, we have a wet pattern during the wettest time of year, this means thunderstorms.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 10 DAYS: Many locations will see 2″-4″ with some seeing 5″.  This model has the bulls eye in northern Missouri, but it can be anywhere.  Average 10 day rainfall is 1.50″ to 2″.  So, it looks like a wet 10 days.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Better Weather Tuesday

Good Monday bloggers,

The cold and wet weather today has cancelled the Royals game for tonight.  It will be made up as a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday.  The weather will be much better the next few days.

Look at this surface map from 4 PM Monday.  It was 96° in Midland, TX in the dry air behind the dry line.  The best chance of severe weather tonight will be in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles where the dry line, surface low and stationary front are located. We are in this wedge of cool air where highs are in the low 50s and the warm, moist air is over running the colder air, creating low clouds and areas of rain and drizzle.  It is 65-70 in the northern plains where the sun is out.  This whole set up will be sagging south the next 24 hours, ending our rain chances.

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TUESDAY MORNING:  There will be areas of rain and drizzle overnight.  Tuesday morning will see the rain ending from north to south.

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TUESDAY PM: Drier air will be heading south as a surface high pressure moves in.  This will push the thick clouds and rain south.  There may be a few showers in the afternoon if the sun comes out and we destabilize a bit.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY: The severe weather risk is shifted well south into south Texas.  These are areas that do not need rain.

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The weather on Wednesday and much of Thursday looks decent with highs in the 60s.  Thursday night and Friday will see new rain chances as a system comes in from the southwest.  This does not look like a big rain event,  but we could see small areas of heavier rain.  The weekend looks great as the system moves away.  Highs will finally reach 75°-80°, which is average.

Have a great night and stay dry and warm.

Jeff