Converging Outflow Boundaries…And Nothing?

7 PM update:

Well, it didn’t end up being nothing. The converging outflow boundaries have influenced this summer storm system. Here was the radar at 7 PM:

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This is the lead disturbance. We will discuss the main storm tonight at 10 PM.

Previous entry below: 

Good afternoon bloggers,

Our weather team has the tough task of trying to figure out if it is going to rain?  Where is it going to rain? How much is it going to rain? And, when? While I am writing this outflow boundaries are converging on top of us at the noon hour. In just about any other scenario we would be about to have explosive thunderstorm development. It’s August. The dew points are high. I think Mother Nature may be high? Because this is just tough to explain, unless something actually does happen. Take a look at the radar images:

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You can see the three main areas of rain. There are two storm systems that we are tracking, and these will be converging into one storm system on Wednesday.  This seems rather similar to many of our storm systems this winter where Kansas City was not quite in the right spot. Northern Missouri has been the target lately, while there are parts of southern Missouri that have been dry for two straight weeks. This is breaking a bit this week, but where?

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You can see the boundaries in the radar image.  These outflow boundaries are like fronts, but they are very shallow and sometimes can not tap any of the energy aloft.  Rain cooled air from the Oklahoma rain system is spreading north and rain cooled air from yet another northern Missouri rain complex is spreading south. Let’s see what happens as these air masses collide. We will be tracking the latest developments beginning at 4 PM this afternoon.

Gary

A summer storm system approaches KC

Good morning bloggers,

It appears that the thunderstorms will be staying mostly north of our area most of today. By tonight into Wednesday there is a storm system approaching our area. Yes, a summer storm system. Take a look at last night’s 06z NAM model forecast:

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I spent a long time analyzing this fascinating cycling pattern. And, I wrote an extensive blog over at Weather2020.  Here is the link to that blog:  Weather2020 Blog

The pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC.  This storm system, due in on Wednesday, is right on schedule. Now, how much rain will fall? We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight. You have a few more dayst to enter our long range forecasting contest:  Long Range Weather Forecasting Contest Click on this link to enter.

Have a great day!

Gary

Tough Thunderstorm Forecast

Good Monday bloggers,

We have chances of thunderstorms every day.  They are being caused by numerous, hard to track features.  The pattern is a bit confused at this time.  Lets go through the chances through Wednesday.

First, today we have a weak front in the area.  There have been scattered thunderstorms across northern Missouri since Sunday evening.  This zone will likely sag south towards KC later today and tonight.

MONDAY: Look at the forecast highs from low 80s north to mid 90s south.  This front will be over head and there will be thunderstorm chances later today and tonight.  Some very heavy rain may fall in spots tonight.

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TUESDAY: Tomorrow gets even more odd.  The front will wash out and lift north.  So, there will be a zone of thunderstorms across northern Missouri where highs will be in the mid 80s.  Then across southern Kansas will be a storm system with a larger area of rain and thunderstorms.  Highs there will be in the 70s.  We are in between, along I-70, where the chance of rain is lower and there will be more sun.  Highs will be near 90°.  So, this is not an easy forecast.  Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the southern system head north.  This will bring the heavy rain with it.  It appears the best chance of rain will be along and south of I-70.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY:  You can see the 2-3″, maybe 4″ rainfall amounts are forecast to be just southeast of KC.  Areas to the north have lesser amounts, but there will be smaller areas that could see 1-3″ of rain in those locations.

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Now, all of this being said, it is not set in stone.  We will be tracking these questions.

1. Where will the zone of thunderstorms set up tonight? Depends on front location.  It will start a north move later tonight.

2. What is tomorrow’s high? It depends on the thunderstorm locations north and south.

3. How far north will the wet system track Tuesday night-Wednesday? Closer to I-44 like the GFS or closer to I-70 like the NAM, Canadian and Ecmwf suggest

Have a great week

Jeff

Keyword for this week: rain

It was a dry and hot day across the area today. Highs climbed into the lower 90s but it felt warmer with the heat index. Days like this are numbered, however….

Monday looks to be our last hot and humid day for a while. A stationary front is going to play a key role in our weather. And it’s twofold.
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Those to the South of that front, it will be warm and still humid. Those to the North, it will be a bit cooler and not as muggy. Based on the latest guidance, Kansas City will be living right along that front. What this means is: nailing down the forecast will be like hanging jello from a wall.

Already, the model guidance is struggling. From the GFS, to the NAM, to the Euro, and to the RPM… they all are printing out different solutions and thus, different rain amoutns.
For example, here is what the GFS thinks we’ll see in terms of total rainfall.
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Notice the bullseye along highway 36 in Northern Missouri.

And this is how the NAM sees it… which is quite a bit different.
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It kinda sorta doesn’t buy that whole idea of heavy rain to the North.

Temperatures will be another challenge. For example, on Wednesday the European model says the high at KCI is 78. Meanwhile, the GFS says we’re 89. Other guidance falls variously between those numbers.

In other news, here is an update on Guillermo, which is down to a Cat 1 hurricane. It is still expect to batter Hawaii by Wednesday morning.
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Back here in the land-locked states, we’ll be watching for our tropical-like weather pattern. As I mentioned yesterday, August is doing its best job to mimic July. It truly makes me wonder if this wet pattern will stick around by the time the real cold air invades this part of the country.

Enjoy your week ahead!
-JD

August is off to a hot, humid, and wet start; for some

It’s one of those real estate weather days today: all about location, location, location. Those in the Central part of Missouri have been dealing with rain, thunderstorms, and cooler temps. While those around Metro saw a few brief showers earlier today then a return of the heat and humidity.

Here’s the radar picture as of 5:45pm tonight.
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Those showers to the East of KC will stay there. I do think we have to keep tabs on the radar for something that may try to pop-up over the Metro. A weak outflow boundary is moving through and that could provide just enough extra “umph” in the atmosphere to generate a little storm.
Here is an animated image of the outflow boundaries trying to drift toward KC.
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So what’s an outflow boundary? The cooled air which falls out of thunderstorms, hits the ground, then spreads out. Think of pouring a glass of water onto a table. These little gust fronts can bring a small drop in temperatures and some gustsy winds. As I mentioned, it’s also possible these can help push air from the surface aloft, which may generate new pop-up storms.

In terms of rainfall that we’ve seen, check out the radar estimated rainfall since midnight.
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Some locally heavy rain is still possible this evening. No severe weather is expected tonight, thankfully. But again, be mindful of flooding.

Looking toward Sunday, we should stay dry. The big story will be the heat and humidity. Dew points will climb into the 70s again, it heat index values will be near 100° to 105°.
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Not a bad day for the pool. Enjoy it, because by Tuesday, it appears things will change. A system will slide in that should bring us a decent chance for rain. Some of it may be heavy at times. It will also cool us down into the 80s.
After that spotty rain chances will linger all the way through Friday. Yep. It’s back to that pattern again.

Reflecting back on July, here are some quick stats.
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And then focusing more on the rainfall, we’ve had some ups and downs so far this year.
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It appears August is picking up where July left off. This isn’t going to go down as a hot and dry summer, not by a long shot!

Checking in on the tropics, Hawaii is still in the path of a hurricane. This is the latest track on Guillermo, which is a category two hurricane right now.
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As you can see, it’s expected to arrive by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a tropical storm.

Tonight, several events are going on around the Metro. The biggest thing: it’ll be warm and humid. Make sure to drink that water and prepare to sweat a little if you plan to be outside.

-JD