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Calmer, Milder Weather

Good Wednesday,

The weather pattern is calmer even though we are tracking three storm systems.  They are timed for Thursday, Friday and Sunday.  The first two will bring clouds and perhaps some drizzle and third which is timed for Sunday is stronger, but may track well south.  It would be all rain anyway as cold air, Arctic air, have left the USA.  We will see highs mostly in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s the next 5-7 days.  A freeze is likely tonight with some fog that could cause slick spots, but after tonight we stay above freezing day and night for 5 days.

Click on the video below for an in depth look at the upcoming weather pattern.

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Have a great day.

Jeff

Water and Ice

Good Sunday,

The much talked about ice storm is here, but as we expected, not a major ice storm.  Now, that being said, there is about 1/10″ of an inch of ice out there on mostly trees, power lines, and untreated surfaces, watch your step.  Temperatures are 30-32 and will rise to 32-33 by noon ending the ice threat.  Rainfall amounts with temperatures below 32 will be under .15″, so icing will be light.  The rest of the afternoon and evening will see scattered rain showers and drizzle with temperatures 33-34.  Heavier rain arrives later tonight.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this storm system.

Have a great week and stay safe.

Here is a list of the most icy surfaces.

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VIDEO WEATHER:

Best Chance of Freezing Rain…Tonight

Good Saturday,

Overnight we had scattered freezing rain showers with temperatures in the mid 20s, so untreated surfaces turned to ice after a few minutes.  The rest of today will be dry with highs 30-31.  The freezing rain will move in from south to north after 8-9 PM.  We will have periods of freezing rain until around noon Sunday here in KC.  It may take until 1-2 PM in northern Missouri for the freezing rain to end.  Right now we are looking at about 1/8″ to 1/4″ of ice on trees and power lines. 1/2″ ice is where power outages become an issue.   Roads will have water and ice, so be cautious. Elevated surfaces such as decks, bridges and overpasses will be the worse.  Crews will have to do multiple treatments.  Sunday afternoon through Monday we will see periods of rain with temperatures warming to the 50s on Martin Luther King Day.

Here is the time line:

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this odd winter storm.

Have a great weekend and stay safe.

Jeff

ICE STORM WARNING

Good afternoon bloggers,

An Ice Storm Warning will go into effect Saturday night. Here are the latest details.

  • A quick band of freezing rain will move across by 11 PM, mainly south of I-70
  • Most of Saturday looks dry, just like Friday, but watch for a few slick spots
  • The main storm moves in around 6 AM Sunday with some icing.
  • It will likely warm up a bit above freezing by tailgating which will end the ice storm

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We will keep you updated!

Gary

Winter Storm Watch, But It Will Be Dry For A While

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a large area in preparation for this approaching storm system. It is being issued very early to get the awareness out there. Some areas in the watch will likely be dry through most of Friday. We will be going in-depth on 41 Action News as this storm approaches.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Becoming sunny to partly cloudy. There is a 0% chance of any freezing rain!
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 0% chance of any freezing rain. It will stay dry!
  • Friday morning: Dry through around 10 AM, then sleet of freezing rain may fall with a light coating possible. Temperatures in the 20s.
  • Friday afternoon: Some light freezing rain or sleet with light accumulations possible.
  • Friday night: Some light freezing rain or sleet possible. Accumulations of under 1/10th of an inch possible.
  • Saturday: A chance of freezing rain. Accumulations of 1/10th of inch possible.
  • Saturday night-Sunday morning: Freezing rain increasing and accumulating. Temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees! Accumulations of 0.1″ to 0.5″ expected. This will cause slick and hazardous conditions to untreated surfaces. Heading out of your neighborhoods to go to tailgating Sunday morning may be challenging. Temperatures 30° to 32°
  • Sunday afternoon: Freezing rain changing to rain with temperatures rising to just above 32°
  • Sunday night-Monday: A band of heavier rain moves in with temperatures jumping to 50° before sunrise

The winter storm watch being issued this early brings awareness to the ice storm. It will be dry in many areas until Friday night. Here are the advisories from the NWS as of this morning:

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One of the main points, aspects of the LRC is that every year is unique. There are moments we have discussed this with you over the years, and now is one of those moments. We are cycling through the 2016-2017 LRC and this pattern is one I have never seen before. This next storm is caught within this pattern and it is just fascinating. Just look at last nights 10 PM surface map:

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69 degrees at 10 pm in St.Louis? 70 in Tulsa! And after a high of 63 in KC, it was down to 24 degrees. Yesterday was fun to track, now what is going to happen next? As discussed in our weather time-line above it will be dry for a good 30 more hours at least, as of 7 AM this morning. Here is a graphic I showed last night:

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This graphic above shows our confidence level that there will be icing. Confidence is very high that we will have a .10″ to .50″ accumulation. Confidence goes way down on amounts more than 0.5″. That .5″ threshold will place areas on the edge of this becoming a major ice storm. It will likely be the biggest ice storm in many years, but it is likely not going to be like the one in 2002. We obviously still need to monitor this closely.

There will likely be a band of very heavy snow northwest of the upper level storm systems track. This will affect eastern Colorado and extreme northwest Kansas. Kansas City has no chance of snow accumulations from this system and as you can see we are still 10″ below my forecast snowfall for the season:

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There is a lot to analyze and I will update this blog this evening. Let’s see how the models come in this morning and we can continue our discussion in the comments section. The storm we are tracking is just now forming near the California coast this morning! We have a lot more time to track this storm. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Rain and Freezing Rain, Ice Storm?

Good Wednesday,

We have a complex forecast ahead, starting with today.  As I write this we have a very strong cold front heading our way.  This is the first ingredient to the potential of seeing freezing rain or rain, so lets go through the next several days.

WEDNESDAY MIDDAY SURFACE MAP: Look at this front!  6° in Valentine, NE to 65° in Sedalia, MO.  This front will sweep by later this afternoon, sending temperatures sailing down to the low 20s by morning, perhaps upper teens.

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EARLY THURSDAY: There is only one model, the NAM showing the potential for a 3o minute period of freezing rain/sleet showers between 1 AM and 4 AM, depositing a trace to .02″.  If this happens with temperatures falling through the 20s, we could have many slick surfaces.  However, the chance is just 20%, and we will not know about this small feature until we see any radar evidence.

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THURSDAY: This will be a dry day with some sun possible as highs only reach the mid to upper 20s..

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FRIDAY MORNING: This looks dry, but we will see freezing drizzle and light freezing rain forming along I-44 with temperatures here in the low 20s.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: We will be watching for the freezing drizzle and light freezing rain moving north as temperatures warm to the upper 20s.  This would create very slick roads within minutes/seconds of the onset of the precipitation.

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SATURDAY MORNING: We could still see light freezing rain and drizzle with temperatures in the 20s.  This would make roads quite icy, but liquid amounts look to be .10″ or less, so trees would get coated but far from having them break.

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SATURDAY EVENING TO NOON SUNDAY: After a break Saturday afternoon, this is where it gets tough.  It really depends on what model you look at as far as how much rain falls and what the temperature is.  Our best forecast right now is for around .25″  or less of rain to occur this time period with temperatures 30°-32°.  This would keep roads slick in spots and coat trees and power lines more, but still not really enough to snap trees and power lines.

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NOON SUNDAY TO AFTERNOON MONDAY: This is when the main storm comes out of the southwest USA, but it looks like temperatures will rise above 32°.  So, we could see over an 1″ of rain, but it is rain.  This shuts off the icing and becomes beneficial moisture we need.

SUMMARY: So, there is a slim chance of very light icing 1-4 AM tonight/early Thursday.  Then from about noon Friday to noon Sunday we have a chance for periods of light freezing rain and freezing drizzle with .10″ to .25″ liquid.  This creates icy surfaces and coated trees/power lines, but does not bring them down (maybe a few weak ones break).  After 12 PM Sunday into Monday we will watch for the main storm  to move in and this could bring 1″ or more of rain, but with temperatures above freezing.  if temperatures stay cold then we have a problem.

Remember, it is still 3 days away and things change.  So, we will just have to keep updating and watching the thermometer like a hawk.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Easy Forecast….NOT

Good Tuesday,

We knew this was going to be a crazy week of weather.  Last night we jumped from the 40s to 50s, so people awoke to Spring Tuesday morning.  Now, colder air is moving in and we will be in the 30s by Tuesday evening.  South winds will return tonight and by tomorrow morning we may be 45-50.  Tomorrow will see highs likely back up, possibly into the 60s.  Then, colder air arrives Wednesday night and we have a very slight chance for some light freezing rain Thursday morning.  However, later Friday into Saturday is the best chance for freezing rain and slick roads.  The main storm arrives Sunday and Monday as temperatures try to rise from 30 to 35, so we could see some ice, but it should change to rain. The Chiefs may be impacted, but if the storm slows down it could stay dry for the game.   Now, all of this being said, it is still way too early to be getting specific and we will have  to continue to monitor the data.

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this nuttiness!

Have a great day.

Jeff

Warmer Days & Possible Weekend Winter Storm

Good Monday,

We have much going on this week in the weather.  We have a warm up to highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, and colder air moving in Thursday.  Then, we turn our attention to the chance of a winter storm Friday-Sunday.  There are so many questions on how the storm will evolve, such as when will it come out of the southwest USA?  The further south it drops and the slower it is, the better chance we see just rain later Sunday and Monday as the cold air has time to retreat.  We could see a brief period of ice Friday-Saturday as a piece could break off of the storm as it heads south.  The faster it comes out, the better chance we have of seeing a winter storm with freezing rain the main precipitation type.  This is due to much warm air aloft.  So, lets take this one day at a time and enjoy the highs in the 50s.

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Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this wild weather pattern.

Have a great rest of your Monday and week ahead.

Jeff

Large Temperature Contrast

Good Sunday,

We have been in the cold air since Wednesday the 4th and now we are getting ready to enter much warmer air for the next few days.  We will be precariously close to Arctic air and rather warm air the next 5 days.  It looks like we will be in the warmer air Tuesday-Thursday before new Arctic air surges in.  What about precipitation?  Well, we do not see much at this time, but there are a couple of days to monitor.  We may see some drizzle Wednesday as warm and moist air moves in and there is a system for Friday that could bring some ice or snow.  There is much uncertainty on the Friday system.  We will know more as we get closer to the day.

THIN ICE: Friday, a mother and son near Wichita fell through ice on a pond and drowned.  The ice is NOT thick enough as we have not been cold enough long enough.  Now we head back to the 50s this week and the ice will melt.  So, next weekend when it gets cold again and ice forms on the ponds again, it will NOT be thick enough to walk on.

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Click on the video below for an in depth look at this roller coaster ride of temperatures.

Have a great week!

Jeff

Roller Coaster Ride

Good Saturday.

We have had a couple of frigid mornings and now we turn our attention to a nice warming trend.  But, we are tracking a series of cold and warm fronts, so we are in for some ups, downs and all around’s on the thermometer.  At this time we do not see any significant precipitation with all of the ups and downs.  Now, there is considerable precipitation in the southeast and western USA.

A winter storm will be exiting the southeast tonight.  There are Blizzard warnings around Norfolk, Virginia.

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On the west coast, this is day 1 of a 7-10 day precipitation event as numerous moisture laden systems come in off of the Pacific Ocean.  Central and northern California may end up with 15″ to 25″ of rain/melted snow before this ends.  The good  news is that this will greatly dent the drought and fill up low lakes and rivers, the bad news is that flooding and mudslides are likely.

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Now to our weather.  We do not have excessive precipitation to track, but we will be tracking crazy changes on the thermometer.

TODAY: A weak cold front will slip through this afternoon.  It is weak as the air ahead of and behind the front is about the same, frigid!

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TODAY: Temperatures will warm to around 25° ahead of the front.  Then, temperatures will quickly drop to the teens this evening as we go into a mini colder pocket.

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SUNDAY: The cold front from today will washout as a warm front surges east across the Plains.  This warm front will be preceded by clouds, but by afternoon the sun will return and temperatures should crack freezing.

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MONDAY: We will start in the 20s and by afternoon with a nice south breeze we will warm to 40°-45°.  Notice the dip in the green contour in eastern Kansas.  This is due to a snow cover affect, so we may end up closer to 40°.  Now, the snow is not that deep and will be easy to melt, so if we can get rid of the snow faster, we will get close to 45°.

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TUESDAY MORNING: Look at this!  Strong south winds will be occurring Monday into Tuesday morning, transporting warm and actually moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, so by Tuesday morning we will be close to 50°.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Warmer air will be surging in as a cold front approaches.  If the front is slower we could see highs 55°-60°.  If it is faster we could see highs 45°-50°.  We are going in between with a high of 54°.  In any case, it will be much warmer than what we have been dealing with the last few days.

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The rest of next week will see temperatures cooler Wednesday, warmer Thursday and colder Friday as we track a series of warm and cold fronts.  We do not see any precipitation producing systems at this time, but if one were to affect us it would be next Friday and Saturday.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff