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The Anticipation Builds For The Snow To Begin Later Today

2:15 PM Update:

The NAM model now is showing the disturbance that the European Model did not pick up on. It is still, as always, a waiting game now as anticipation builds. There are questions that will be answered soon.  You can see the disturbance here:

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Previous entry below:

 

Good morning bloggers,

Today will be a rather fascinating weather day in and around Kansas City.   We will get to watch the the sky go from sunshine this morning, to increasing clouds, to a lowering ceiling as snow begins to fall to the ground by later this afternoon. I will be sure to set up a few time-lapses.  We currently have around 2.5″ of snow on the ground and we have 2″ to 5″ in our forecast:

Snow Ruler

Sunny shows us the snow depth, the snow forecast, and the final forecast result.  I am expecting around 4″ in Kansas City, so the snow depth will be around 6.5″. We are going to be monitoring closely for that southern wave of energy that may enhance snowfall totals, as discussed in yesterday’s blog and on last nights Facebook Live I did.  It has shown up on some of the models. If there is that southern wave, then around 9 or 10 PM tonight there would be a little comma head moving almost due north up the state line and that would increase totals by around 1 or 2 inches. I just did a thorough analysis, and I do not see that advance disturbance at the moment. It is something we may not see until this evening. So, until I see any evidence, I am in that 2-5 inch range for snowfall amounts in KC, with the chance of 2″ at 100% and the chance of 5″ at 30%.

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These are the maps I showed on my 10 PM newscast last night.  Here is today’s weather timeline in KC:

  • Today:  Some sunshine early today, then increasing clouds. It will become cloudy with snow spreading in from the south, or possibly a lead band forming overhead later this afternoon.  High:  30°
  • Tonight:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly mixing with sleet or freezing rain just southeast of Kansas City.  The snow may become heavy at times with 2″ to 5″ on top of the snow we already have by 6 AM.  Low:  28°
  • Wednesday:  Lingering morning snow showers, possibly changing to freezing drizzle with a light glazing or dusting on top of the snow.  High:  34°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog for more information and to join in the conversation or at least read the comments from the bloggers.  Have a great day.  The evening rush hour may become quite challenging for travel.

Gary

Another Winter Storm Is Approaching

Good morning bloggers,

Is this wearing you out at all?  The storm systems just keep coming, and there never seems to be a break.  For many of us, this is something we need to enjoy and take in one minute at a time, so stop and take a deep breath today and let’s try to enjoy this next storm as it moves in. Now, there are many people out there likely on the other side of the spectrum of getting enjoyment out of this storm.  One of my new neighbors slipped and hurt his leg pretty bad a couple of weeks ago, so I know he is ready for spring. And, anyone who had a stalled car or who has been impacted in any car crashes, well, I am sure they are not enjoying this winter ride.  There was a 47 car pile up on I-70 west bound near Oak Grove Friday with one fatality.  So, quite obviously there is an ugly and horrific side to all of these weather events.  We will keep that in perspective, and at the same time the only thing we can do ourselves is be extra cautious and provide a lot of extra time to get around.  Travel problems will likely be developing once again on Tuesday night.

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Sunny The Weather Dog shows us the snow left on Sunday on the Plaza. I was down south, near my old neighborhood in southern Overland Park last night, and there was half as much snow down there.  The weather forecast game continues, and I have posted the entries at the end of this blog.  Kansas City  had 3.8″ at KCI from storm #1 and 0.5″ from storm #2, for a total of 4.3″ at KCI Airport.  The official recording location, however, is in front of our 41Action News studios at 47th and Oak Street. We had 4.2″ from Friday’s storm, and then 0.1″ from yesterday’s graupel shower and little snow and freezing drizzle mixture.  So, the official total is also 4.3″.

The Set Up:

1A rather unique weather pattern is setting up for this storm system as we can see on the left. There is a strong 1040 mb (30.71″) surface high forecast to be located over northern Iowa by 6 AM Tuesday.  This high is dominating the nation today and tonight a drier & cold air expands out over most of the nation.  At the same time, there is a surface low beginning to form by early Tuesday morning over the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast.  The interaction of the high pressure area and the low pressure area is causing a broad southeasterly flow of warm and moist low level moisture as a big source of energy for this storm system.  In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a series of waves are will begin affecting the precipitation pattern, and this is a rather complex set up.

  • Look closely at the 540 thickness line, the blue dashed line just above the last red dashed line. This is quite often the rain/snow changeover line.
  • The surface low needs to be monitored closely as it will track north in this set up
  • The main upper level energy will track just west of Kansas City over central KS into northeast KS Tuesday night.  In most of our snow set ups over the years, this would be a bad track for KC as it would draw in the warmer air and dry slot.  It is something to look for.
  • There is an important wave that will likely emerge and organize and come out of the farther south regions over Baja California and track towards southwestern Missouri or southeastern KS Tuesday night.  This part of the pattern produced such a wave that created a comma head of precipitation producing a band of heavy snow with large snowflakes in the last LRC Cycle. This wave has shown up on some of the models

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That wave of energy I am pointing to on this map comes from southern Baja California, and races northeast. This may have its own comma head associated with it, and if it does, it could produce 2″ to 3″ per hour snowfall rates in a fast moving lead band. One hour of that would produce a majority of the snow in some areas.  So, as you can see this is quite complex, and it is just a day away and we have a lot of questions.

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This FV3 GFS model is trying to track that surface low along that inverted trough and this would draw warmer air northward. The 540 thickness line would be approaching Kansas City from the south at midnight tomorrow, and this model even shows a changeover from snow to sleet and a mixture approaching the city.  This would happen, though, after the lead snow bands move by, and this is why confidence is high on at least 2 to 3 inches falling before the changeover may occur.

We often tend to ignore how close the rain/snow changeover line is to your location.  And, it presents another trick to this snow forecast.  The heaviest snow is often just north of this changeover line. It is forecast, on this model, to end up near the Iowa border by 6 AM Wednesday with a surge to above freezing at the surface and a change to rain.  Now, this is the most aggressive of this possibility, and I just wanted to present it for something for us to monitor.

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Here are some of the models snow outputs as of 5:30 AM this morning:

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The European Model had the warmest solution and least snowiest solution, the map immediately above. All of the models have 2-3 inches at least in KC, and confidence is high in this range. This storm has some tricks up its sleeve, so let’s keep monitoring it.

Snow Accumulation Probabilities:

  • No Snow:  0%
  • 1″ of snow:  100%
  • 2″ of snow:  100%
  • 3″ of snow:  70%
  • 4″ of snow:  50%
  • 5″ of snow:  30%
  • 6″ of snow:  20%
  • More than 6″ of snow:  10%

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with a little sun possible. North winds 5-10 mph.  High:  25°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy:  Low:  19°
  • Tuesday:  Dry most of the day with a 100% chance of snow moving in from the south later in the afternoon or evening.   The evening rush hour may be a complete mess if it comes in just a bit early.  High:  30°
  • Tuesday Night:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly heavy at times.  Accumulations of 2″ to 6″ possible. It will become a heavier and wet snow with temperatures just below 32°
  • Wednesday:  Snow ending, possible mixing with or changing to rain before ending.  High:  34°

Here are all of the entries for our Weather2020 Snow Prediction Game.  The winner gets the honor of being the Weather2020 Best Weather Forecaster Of Week!

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It is interesting as the  average snowfall prediction is 6.86″.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.   Weather2020 blog Click here to join in the conversation and see what everyone is thinking about this approaching storm. The discussions have been better than ever!  Have a great day.

GAry

Two Down, One to Go

Good Sunday bloggers,

The second system is over after producing around 1/2″ of snow north of I-70 and a dusting of snow with freezing drizzle south of the river. There was some freezing drizzle north of the river as well. Also, the event started in all areas with a band of sleet/graupel and snow showers. KCI received 0.5″ of snow, and this is the official total for Kansas City.

So, now we are up to 23.1″ of snow for the season which is about 4.5″ of snow above the last three years combined and the seasonal average. We are going to be adding to these totals Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Here is the timeline for the third event. We will have to watch for the potential of a mix southeast of Kansas City, let’s go day by day below.

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SUNDAY: Snow will be occurring along I-80 with flurries and snow showers possible in Missouri, near the Iowa border.  We will be near the clearing line, so some sun is likely. Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s.

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MONDAY: It will be mostly cloudy with highs in the 20s. A weak disturbance may bring a flurry during the afternoon. Lows will be in the teens to around 20, colder if we have some breaks in the clouds Monday morning.

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TUESDAY MORNING: It will be mostly cloudy and dry with lows around 20. A large shield of precipitation will be organizing from the Rockies to the southeast USA.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: Here we go! The snow arrives, most likely, after 3-4 PM so the kids should have school Tuesday. If the snow speeds up, then schools may close or have early dismissal. This storm will have temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than the one from Friday. So, a rain-mix-snow line will be in Missouri. The heaviest snow usually occurs near the rain-snow line.  The data overnight is putting our region in that part of the storm. We will have to watch the rain-snow line closely as it could drift to I-70 for the second part of the storm. Right now, we are thinking all snow. Wednesday will be the day of school closings as the snow will not end until 6-9 AM Wednesday. Now, it may end with some freezing drizzle.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST: Our latest thinking with this storm is for 2″-4″ on the low end to 4″-6″ on the high end. The storm is moving fast, so this will keep snow totals from getting out of control. Also, we will have to keep an eye on the rain-mix-snow line.

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There is the chance of a 4th storm next weekend, but that one may stay south.

Have a great week, stay safe and warm.

Jeff Penner

One Down, Two to Go

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are in an incredibly active weather pattern. The next storm system, the second in the recent series, arrives later today. The third system arrives later Tuesday. This may be the biggest of the three. Mother Nature can be all things, and this morning she was beautiful as the sun rose through breaks in the overcast to the east.

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Here is the timeline for winter event #2. The snow and some freezing drizzle will rapidly increase between 3 PM and 7 PM. And, just like yesterday, it won’t be but just a few minutes after the onset of the precipitation for the roads to get slick.

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SATURDAY 3 PM: Here is the powercast for 3 PM today. You can see there is nothing on it as precipitation is on the verge of starting. Temperatures will be in the 20s.

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SATURDAY 3 PM-9 PM: In just a matter of hours we go from no precipitation to snow across the entire viewing area. There will be some freezing drizzle around as well. Again, roads will get slick quick just like yesterday. So, use caution if you are out and about this evening and night. If you are out and see some drizzle/snowflakes starting to fall, just know that within 5 to 30 minutes the roads will get slick.

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SUNDAY-MONDAY: The snow from tonight will end quickly from southwest to northeast Sunday morning after 1/2″ to 2″ of snow accumulates. The rest of Sunday and Monday will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 20s. Lows Monday will drop to the teens. A weak system may streak across Kansas Monday afternoon, bringing a dusting of snow. A dusting of snow can make things slick as well.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Winter event #3 arrives later Tuesday and will exit Wednesday. This has a decent chance to be the biggest of the three systems with 3″-6″ of snow possible.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR EVENT #2: This is the snowfall forecast for later today through noon Sunday. Amounts will range from around 1/2″ south to 1″-3″ north. The KC area will see 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of snow.  There will be some freezing drizzle as well.

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SNOWFALL FORECAST EVENT #2 PLUS EVENT #3: Amounts will range from 4″ to 8″ which will bring some locations up to 12″ for a three storm total. The storm for Tuesday and Wednesday has 3″ to 6″ potential. Remember, there is no melting, so we are only adding and not subtracting.

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KCI received 3.8″ of snow officially, bringing the seasons total to 22.6″ which is around 4″ above average and 4″ above the last three winters combined.

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Here are the entries for the Weather2020 Snow Forecasting Game In Progress:

  • Storm #1:  4.2″

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Stay safe and warm and have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

A Cold & Drier Snow Has Started

Good morning bloggers,

Snow

We are getting reports of the first snowflakes already, as of 6:45 AM.  I had Sunny The Weather Dog help us with this forecast.  We are confident that Kansas City will have 2 to 3 inches of snow today, and then the chance of more goes down a bit.  If you are 50 miles northeast of KC, these chances go way down, in fact there will be a cut off from no snow to snow, a rather sharp cut off. Look at the latest HRRR prediction from the 5 AM model run:

hrrr_asnow_scus_14

The next chance on Saturday night is interesting as a surface cyclone spins by:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9

And, the third system on Tuesday into Wednesday we will analyze over the weekend and on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  A 100% chance of snow with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches likely.  Roads will become slick and hazardous by the lunch hour. High:  16°
  • Tonight:  Snow tapers off to flurries.  Low:  11°
  • Saturday:  Thin clouds will thicken during the day with a 100% chance of snow by Saturday night.  High:  24°
  • Sunday:  A band of snow moves by and ends.  Additional accumulations from Saturday night into Sunday morning of around 1 to 2 inches possible.  High:  29°

Have a great day and provide yourself a lot of extra time. Good luck in the snow forecasting game, and join in the conversation at Weather2020.com.

Gary

KC Will Go Over 20″ For The Season Friday

Good morning bloggers,

Our snowfall forecast game entries are listed below. The deadline to entry was 10 PM Tuesday night. We have updated the list to include everyone who entered a specific number by the deadline. Good luck!  The contest ends Wednesday evening. There are three systems that may produce accumulating snows, and the first system is approaching the California now:

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There is a tropical connection from south of Hawaii all the way up to Kansas City today.  And, then the disturbance will move through a ridge and emerge out over the plains tomorrow morning.

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This is another example of the unique pattern we are in this year. One of the main aspects of the LRC is that a unique pattern sets up in the fall and then continues through the winter, spring, and summer.  This is definitely a unique pattern, and it is rather fascinating watching Kansas City set up into a snow likely scenario for tomorrow. We rarely have such high confidence in snow even a day out.  The disturbance, breaking through a ridge that is over Nevada today, will emerge over western Kansas early Friday and race eastward. This is likely going to be a five to ten hour snow event. There will likely be a 4 to 6 inch band of snow in the middle of the disturbance and I will try to pick out that exact location on KSHB, 41 Action News tonight.  Then, look at the bigger upper low west of Seattle in the Gulf fo Alaska.  That system is the one that will approach KC Tuesday, and there is a little wave in between these two main systems that will produce a little area of snow Saturday evening.  What did I just say, three snow systems for KC in the next week?  YES!

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This map above shows the early next week storm, and yes it is the St. Louis November snowstorm part of the pattern.  In this third cycle it appears this system has a decent chance to be ejected out instead of tracking south like it did in November, but my confidence is still a bit shaky on this one at the moment.

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The above three maps show the snow forecast I showed last night, and now, let’s see what the models showed for all three systems ending Wednesday when our forecast game will conclude:

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This first map above is the European Model showing 10″ amounts in our area by 6 PM Wednesday, and then these next three are the GFS, FV3 GFS, and Canadian Models:

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All four of these models have 6″+ amounts near KC between now and Wednesday night.  Here are your predictions that are alive in our game:

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Happy Valentines Day!  It will warm up today, and then the snow will move in Friday.  A cold blast will arrive sometime this afternoon, so get ready to bundle up again.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Bands of clouds streaming across from the Pacific Ocean.  A little sun will filter through and it will warm up into the 50s early this afternoon. Then, a cold front will blast in with temperatures crashing into the 30s by evening with windy conditions. Wind chills will be around 0° to 10° by 9 PM tonight
  • Friday:  A 100% chance of snow spreading in.  Accumulations of 2-5 inches likely by evening. Temperatures ranging from the teens into the lower 20s
  • Saturday: A few snow flurries, then a 90% chance of a band of snow with an additional dusting to 2″ possible. Temperatures in the lower to middle 20s

With temperatures this cold, the liquid to snow ratios will likely by 12 to 1.  So, if we get 0.40″ liquid, this would equal 1.2″ of snow per 0.10″ liquid, or 4.8″.  Let’s see how this all sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Have a great day!  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

A Look At Your Snowfall Predictions For The Next Week

Good morning,

First of all I would like to thank everyone for putting out your weather forecasts for the amount of snow ending next Wednesday evening at 6 PM.  I am attaching the list at the bottom of this blog.  And, thank you so much to David Twigg who compiled the list.

A series of storm systems will begin affecting the plains on Friday.   When we are trying to predict snow, we must always realize that predicting amounts three days to seven days in advance is a tricky discipline in meteorology.  Especially in Kansas City.  And, this forecast contest is fun, and we already get our first big twist on the models as the overnight runs provided new and very different solutions.  I went with 7.2″ for the seven days emphasizing the more likely first storm, and the somewhat questionable second and third systems.  So, let’s see how this sets up.  The first one storm is a fast moving disturbance in the upper levels that exits the west coast and races our way on Friday. This is what I showed on the air last night:

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The second and third storm systems have already tracked a bit farther north (the weekend storm), and a bit farther south and more disorganized (the early next week storm).  Try not to get that horrible disease “Modelitis”.  It already has hit many of us where your emotions go up and down with each model run.

Here are the latest models, starting with the Euro, then the FV3 GFS, the GFS, and the Canadian:

f5weather-18

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Today will be a much warmer day with our predicted high of 52 degrees.  Let’s discuss the model trends on the Weather2020 blog.

Here is the list of entries from the bloggers (Only people who put down a specific number were included):

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The amounts ranged from no snow from Big Papa Poof to 24.9″ from Joshua.  Good luck.  The winner gets the recognition as the “Best Weather Forecaster Of The Week”.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Have a great day!

Gary

Snowfall Potential The Next Seven Days

Good morning bloggers,

A cold weather pattern is now cycling through the next couple of weeks. There will be some warmer surges, and one of those will arrive tomorrow into Thursday. And, then more cold blasts are in the forecast, and the next one is due in on Valentines Day evening.  This next cold blast will be followed by a series of disturbances with each one potentially producing some snow.  As we have all experienced over the years, predicting snow in Kansas City is always difficult, so let’s play a game today.  How much snow do you think will fall between now and next Wednesday night, the next seven days?  I will add in my prediction before the end of the day.  Here are the models, starting with the European Model, and then followed by the FV3 GFS, GFS, and Canadian models:

f5weather-17

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So, what do you think?  The winner gets the honor of being “The best weather forecaster of the week”.  The deadline is 10 PM tonight. How much snow do you predict will happen in the next seven days?   Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation and answer this question.  Have a great Tuesday.

Gary

The Wild Winter Weather Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

The WWW pattern continues, or rather the Wild Winter Weather pattern.  This has been just one functional storm after another, and KC has been impacted. We are in the part of the cycling pattern that was active in both previous cycles of the LRC.  And, in the next week we are going into the part of the pattern that produced the St. Louis 9″ snowstorm.  We called it “The St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” because of how rare it was to have any accumulating snow so early in St. Louis.  They officially had snow on the 12th, 14th, and 15th for a total of 5.1″ officially, and 9″ in the St. Louis metro area.  Farther west, Kansas City had 1.3″ on November 8th and 0.5″ on November 12th for two early measurable snows as well.  This part of the pattern included a wet storm on November 4th to 5th which is what we are experiencing today.  The “St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” is what comes in between Thursday and Tuesday.   We will discuss this below, as most of the models have a rather substantial snowstorm in the area within one week from now.

The Current Weather Pattern

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This years LRC continues to produce very cold air.  Today’s upper level flow features a rather unusual ridge aloft stretching from west of Hawaii northeast to the North Pole.  This ridging is allowing for high pressure to continue to be generated over Canada. This causes clear skies and light winds way up there, and it is dark at this time of the year all day and night. This provides the conditions for radiational cooling, and thus the build up of the Arctic air and the maintaining of that cold Arctic air mass.  And, there is a strong southern branch of the jet stream.  A storm is moving out into the plains today, and this can be traced to the November 4th storm that produced significant rain in the KC metro area then, and it is again today.

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Snow was reported at KCI Airport at 5 and 6 AM as an area of rain moves in from the south and changes over to a winter type north of downtown KC. This storm is so close to being a major winter storm in KC, and it will become one just north and northeast of KC.  A solid area of rain is moving in as I am writing this, and the rain/snow line is shifting north. Some spots within 30 miles of the Iowa border of northern Missouri will see accumulating snow today.  And, then it will be onto the next part of the cycling pattern.

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Within the next week, this next part of the cycling pattern is right on schedule. Now, for KC, remember, we did have two small snows from this system as the energy went around KC and blasted St. Louis. We will get, what Gary England 10 years ago explained the LRC as, “The Same, But Different”.  The same pattern will produce its February version of this part of the pattern.  It fits the LRC perfectly, is right on schedule and has been in our forecast for this next week for months now, and the specifics of what will happen will be realized within a week. Take a look at the European Model solution for one week from now:

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And, here is the FVS GFS model:

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Both the European and the FV3 GFS models, and other models match up as well, show this storm being bigger and more wide spread than the November version. The December version of this storm was very wet just after Christmas, and I have confidence that a very wet storm will form when this begins developing later this week and moves out into the plains in less than a week.

The WWW pattern continues.  Spring will be quite sweet and smell so good when it gets here. For now, it is a wild winter weather pattern that will continue until further notice.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A 100% chance of rain.  Snow and sleet up north of I-70 will change to rain, with snow accumulating just a couple counties north of KC.  3 to 4 inches of snow are possible 50 miles north of KC.  High:  34°
  • Tonight:  Rain tapering off to dizzle, then a chance of some snow before it ends early Tuesday. The winds shifting to the north at 10-20 mph with temperatures dropping to below freezing, around 28°. Some refreezing is likely with some slick spots.
  • Tuesday:  Some sunshine breaking out with north winds 10-20 mph. High: 38°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  53°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to learn more and share in this weather experience. So many of our weather enthusiast friends are helping add insight and fun each day, so thank you for you participation.

Have a great day,

Gary

On to the Next System

Good Sunday bloggers,

As Gary blogged earlier, this first system formed a bit farther north than we were thinking. 1/2″ to 2″ of snow occurred in northern Missouri while the KC area received a period of freezing rain/drizzle. Any untreated surfaces will be slick, especially the surfaces that already had ice on them. Surface conditions will improve this afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Temperatures will rise to the mid and upper 30s under a cloudy sky with some mist.  All surfaces will begin to see improvement. Tonight will remain cloudy with some mist and lows 30-35. So a few locations could see refreezing.

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MONDAY MORNING: The next storm system arrives with rain. Northern Missouri may see some freezing rain/sleet/snow as the precipitation starts, creating more slick conditions.  If KC drops to 30°-32°, then the precipitation would start as freezing rain. This would create slick spots at the onset of the precipitation. However, we expect the temperatures to warm quickly to above freezing Monday morning.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Periods of rain and drizzle are looking likely with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. We could see .10″ to .50″ of rain. This not only washes off the messy salt, but the roads with ice still on them will improve quickly. A mix is possible near the Iowa border where highs will be in the low to mid 30s.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The storm will race by midnight to noon Tuesday. Colder air (not Arctic) will rush in on northwest winds gusting to 40 mph. The rain will likely change to snow before it ends. Right now we do not think there will be much snow. But, we have to watch this closely for a quick burst of heavy snow and some accumulation. The storm will be in the Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon allowing the sun to return and winds to diminish.

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Wednesday will be a nice day followed by a cold blast and the next system Thursday-Friday. We will focus on this in a few days.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner