The Next Chance of Thunderstorms

appy Memorial day,

The weather was absolutely spectacular to visit the Liberty Memorial on this day when we honor all of those who have served to protect our life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  As we start the work week there is a chance of thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves by.  So, let’s go through the next few days.

MEMORIAL DAY: Great weather with highs in the 80s.

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TUESDAY MORNING: It will most likely be dry with temperatures around 60°.  There is a slight chance for a shower. or thunderstorm as this cold front is near.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The cold front will be drifting through and there will likely be scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A few of the thunderstorms may contain small hail and gusty winds along with torrential downpours.  This is not a severe weather set up, but this time of year we have to watch every chance of thunderstorms.

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WEDNESDAY: This will be a very nice day with highs in the 70s as a weak high pressure moves over head.

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THURSDAY: There is another chance of thunderstorms as a warm front surges across the region.  The best chance of thunderstorms will occur during the morning.

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The thunderstorm chances will continue Friday and Saturday as a cold front and one to two more systems move by.  The thunderstorms Thursday and Friday have a slight severe weather chance, but the flow aloft is not that strong.

Have a great week ahead.

Jeff

One Tornado Report

Good Sunday,

Saturday was quite a day of weather with numerous rounds of thunderstorms crossing Kansas, Missouri into the southeast USA.  There were 660 total reports of severe weather and 1 tornado report.  This could change a bit after damage is assessed, but that is a bit strange.

Here are the severe weather reports from Saturday:

TORNADO: There was one report of a tornado and the other two were funnells.  There were a few lightning damage reports as well.  A house caught on fire in Jonesboro, AR and a tree fell on a home in Clay City, Kentucky.

TORNADO MAY 27 2017

 

TORNADO + HAIL:

TORNADO HAIL MAY 27 2017

TORNADO + HAIL + WIND:

TORNADO HAIL WIND MAY 27 2017

STORM REPORT TOTALS:

TORNADO WIND HAIL TOTAL MAY 27 2017

What a day!  Now what is next?  Today and Memorial day will be mostly sunny with highs 75°-80° along with west to northwest and at times southwest winds 5-15 mph.  Here is a picture of the Sunday sunrise showing the sun rising through the last of the anvils from the thunderstorms that were from Arkansas to the southeast USA Sunday morning.

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Our next rain chance arrives Tuesday as a weak cold front and disturbance race in from the northwest.  This time of year every front and disturbance must be watched for the potential of rain and thunderstorms.  We are in a marginal severe risk as a few of the thunderstorms may contain quarter sized hail and brief 60 mph wind gusts.  It will be an interesting weather day on Tuesday if the present data holds.

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Have a happy and safe rest of your Memorial day weekend.

Jeff

Severe Weather Threat, KC May Dodge A Bullet

Good Saturday,

We have been monitoring the chance of severe weather for today and there is likely going to be a shift in the main location for the afternoon severe weather event.  This is due to two areas of rain and thunderstorm tracking across northern Missouri and northern Kansas.  The computer data did a horrible job of modeling the morning thunderstorms, so SPC has kept us in an enhanced risk of severe weather.  However, since the thunderstorms have held together they are spreading rain cooled air over a large area and this will likely shift the severe threat to the south.

SATURDAY 830 AM SURFACE SET UP: You can see the main cold front is to the west, but the trough (dashed black line) is moving through our area.  This is the leading edge of rain cooled air separating the cold front from the juicy air.  So, this is going to be a big factor for how things evolve this afternoon.

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SATURDAY 845 AM RADAR: If we had just the lead cluster of rain and thunderstorms we would still be quite concerned that the rain cooled boundary would stall near by keeping us closer to the severe threat.  However, the second round should push this boundary even farther south.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON SET UP: Here is our latest thinking.  The rain cooled air will be covering our area as the cold front approaches.  The juicy air will be located across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas near the warm front.  So, down there you will have the warm front and rain cooled outflow boundary bringing sufficient features for severe thunderstorms to form.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON SET UP: So, if you have family and friends in the Ozarks for the holiday weekend or are there yourself be on the lookout this afternoon for rapidly changing and dangerous weather conditions.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON SET UP: Now, with all the above being said, we still have to watch our area this afternoon as nothing is for sure in weather.  But, the chance of our area seeing severe weather is around 20-30% as it looks like the rain cooled air will continue to push south especially since the second area is still out there. If the second area falls apart things could change, but the cooler air is spreading south.

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Regardless of what happens, this evening in KC will be dry, mild and mostly cloudy which will lead to great weather for Sunday and Memorial day for all locations.  We are in for sunshine and highs in the 70s to near 80°.

Have a happy and safe Memorial day weekend and do not drink and drive.

Jeff

A Fantastic Friday Could Become A Stormy Saturday

Good morning bloggers,

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. We will be monitoring this closely and if anything does form our weather team will be tracking any severe weather risks as they threaten where you live. Summer is less than four weeks away with the severe weather risks going way down soon, but we are still near the peak of severe weather season, so let’s pay close attention to tomorrow.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny & warm. Light winds from the north at 10 mph or less. High: 83°
  • Tonight: Dry with thunderstorms forming northwest of Kansas City.  Low:  65°
  • Saturday:  This is a complex forecast. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms before noon. If these move through, then the chance later in the day goes way down. If the thunderstorms don’t make it through in the morning, then the chance later in the day goes up and the severe weather risk goes up.  High: 77°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. High: 75°
  • Memorial Day: Mostly sunny and very nice with a west to southwest breeze around 10-15 mph.  High:  80°

Weather Discussion:

Who was awake last night when thunderstorms moved through. I was! Between 3 and 4 AM this band of thunderstorms in a rather weak complex of thunderstorms moved through:

The computer models did not do a very good job at modeling this band of rain and thunderstorms. And, the models are again having a problem with modeling the set-up on Saturday.

The first very important weather feature to monitor is a likely complex of thunderstorms that will be forming and organizing late Friday night into Saturday morning. If this likely complex of thunderstorms is strong and large, then it will have a major impact on what happens later in the day Saturday. If it is weak and moves fast, then the set-up for Saturday afternoon and evenings severe weather risk will be much more impressive closer to Kansas City.

Severe Weather Risk today and tonight:

The slight risk over western Kansas Is the area to monitor closely for where the likely organized Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) will form tonight. Again, monitoring this development may be a huge factor for Saturdays set up.

Severe Weather Risk Saturday:

The Storm Prediction Center has a large enhances slight risk area over southern Missouri south into Arkansas. This region will need to pay very close attention to how it all sets up on Saturday.

From the SPC:  “Widespread severe thunderstorms with wind damage, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected Saturday and Saturday night from parts of the southern and central plains east-northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic. A very moist and unstable airmass should be in place Saturday from eastern parts of the southern plains northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley.  Surface dewpointes are forecast to be in the lower to middle 70s across much of this corridor contributing the fuel for moderate to strong instability by afternoon.  Deterministic and high-res solutions suggest that a complex of thunderstorms will first develop across the central plains around midday with this complex growing in size an moving east-southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon.”

Here is where it is tricky, once again.  The SPC is suggesting this complex of thunderstorms will form around midday, but they seem to not be emphasizing that this development could be already fully mature and forming by 7 AM. If this activity is already active early, then the midday version would have already formed much earlier and this would have an impact on afternoon development. But, if the earlier activity isn’t as organized, then this will have a major impact on the location of the afternoon risk. The biggest risk will still likely fall in where the SPC has the enhanced slight risk.

It is never easy is it? Let’s see how the models come in today. Have a great Friday! We will be monitoring closely and updating you on KSHB.com and 41 Action News.

Gary

Holiday Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Holiday Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: An absolutely gorgeous day. High: 76° with a south breeze around 15 mph
  • Tonight: A 10% chance of a thunderstorm around 4 AM. So, this likely means it will be dry in most locations. Low: 63°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Southeast winds switching to the northeast at around 10 mph.  High:  83°
  • Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of thunderstorms. One model has a severe weather risk and the other ones do not have as much of a risk. We are monitoring closely as described below. A slight change and we could have a significant risk, but a slight change the other way and it is just a fast moving band of thunderstorms that lasts an hour or less. High: 78° The timing of the rain chance is toughest on this day and we should know more by Friday.
  • Sunday-Memorial Day: Really nice weather with just a 10% chance of a brief shower Monday afternoon or evening. The rest of these days look great. Highs:  74 to 80 degrees

Weather Discussion:

A very interesting set up is developing for Saturday. There is a lot to analyze between now and then. The Storm Prediction Center has this risk out for day 3:

There will likely be a morning MCS, a morning complex of thunderstorms Saturday. This will most likely form over northwest and western Kansas and ride east north of a developing front.

From the SPC:  “Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday night from portions of the central and southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  

A positively tilted upper-level trough will extend from a closed low over Manitoba across the northern Plains and into the Great Basin, with moderately strong zonal flow and an expansive EML from the central Rockies east to the mid-Atlantic coast.  By late Saturday afternoon, a surface frontal boundary will extend from the souther high plains east across Oklahoma to a surface low over the western Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east to the mid-atlantic coast. A drilling will extend from central Oklahoma into southwest Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place along and south of the front and east of the drilling, contributing to strong to extreme instability.

For the Central/Southern Plains:  An MCE with some severe potential may be ongoing at 12z Saturday in the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and diurnal intensification of this complex is possible with a severe threat extending east across the lower Missouri Valley.

Additional potentially explosive thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the southward sagging cold front from central/eastern Oklahoma northeast into the western Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, and along the drilling from central Oklahoma southward into north Texas. 

GFS and ECMWF forecast soundings reveal an environment characterized by strong to extreme surface-based instability and 40-50 its of deep layer shear and storms should rapidly become severe with all severe hazards possible, including significant severe hail and wind.  Tornado potential will exist, and likely be influenced by boundary/storm interactions.”

We are still in the peak of tornado season. Look at today’s tornado climatology:

As you can see above, we are really now at the peak of tornado season. It will fade away within four weeks, but right now the jet stream energy is not just strong enough to produce the conditions for severe weather set ups, but historically this week has been really bad. The Joplin EF-5 occurred in this seven day stretch. The Moore, OK and El Reno, OK tornadoes in 2013 occurred during the second half of May.

The latest data is in with rather differing results. I am adding in the time-line with my thoughts near the top of the blog.

Have a great day. I have the day off from 41 Action News. I will check in from time to time if you have any questions.

Gary