41 Action Weather Blog

Good Morning Bloggers!

In the forecast chair right now trying to fine tune the potential for severe weather tomorrow.  Right now I know we will be dealing with  severe weather, but just getting a better handle on what types are more likely as the storms push east tomorrow and how dangerous it could be for our area.  We will have a few thunderstorms tonight in the northern part of the area, but my concern is Sunday night.  The set up so far just looks to line up pretty good.  I wanted to say good morning and let you know what I’m working on for my first blog. Wow…thanks Gary for having my first blog be the most active weekend severe weather wise in Kansas City in at least a year.  So, I’m going to take some more time and I’ll have an update in a couple of hours for you guys.  I’m happy to be joining the blog even if this forecast isn’t going to be a fun one.

Kalee Dionne

UPDATE–9 AM Saturday 

SATURDAY–It is going to be a GREAT day with plenty of sunshine for all of the graduations and parties going on around the area.  If you don’t have any plans just work outside or head out to run some errands because this is a nice Saturday forecast shaping up.

We are in the warm sector of this storm system, so we will feel hot and humid as temperatures sky-rocket into the upper 80′s this afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin to fire up in far western Kansas and stretch as far south as northwestern Oklahoma and as far north as southwestern Nebraska.  This will be the focus area for  damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes this evening. We will stay dry today, but we could see a few storms develop overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning.  If you are heading out tomorrow morning to church or an event make sure you are keeping an eye on the weather.  Some of these storms maybe on the stronger side, but most of the storms will be in the northern part of our viewing area in Northern Missouri.

Here is the set up for Sunday afternoon, which still is a little uncertain for me in just how much we will get.  We will have ample amount of moisture and we are on the southern fridge of the low, but I think the shear profile will be better to our south.

Although, we are in a moderate risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center.  After talking with the weather team this morning, we need to be ready for all modes of severe weather.  I think we will be more on the linear part of this storm system, which would mean more of a damaging wind and hail threat.  Even when the storms are more linear, you can still see tornadoes spin up along the line.  So, a few isolated tornadoes are VERY possible either way.  We do have the potential for supercells to move in that develop off to the west Sunday evening, but again I think this will be mostly to our south.  I will keep looking at the data coming in and better fine tune tonight and then again tomorrow morning.

This is a screen shot of the 00z Monday GFS and the 00z Monday NAM.  I think we will see this activity begin in the evening hours a little earlier than I had originally thought.  Even though we will have a few thunderstorms and clouds in the morning, we will still have plenty of time to rebound the atmosphere in the afternoon. We will see peaks of sunshine in the afternoon, so we will still be able to tap into enough moisture to have sufficient instability for the storms at night.   It’s been a while since Kansas City has seen significant severe weather, so we want to make sure people are prepared.  Make sure we have our weather radios and also you can get alerts about storms with our storm shield app for iPhone and Android phones.  You can learn more about this at www.kshb.com/mobile

Kalee Dionne

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Good morning bloggers,

The severe weather risk will be increasing Sunday!

Weather Forecast Timeline:

• Today: Cloudy this morning with some sunshine breaking out and partly cloudy later today. We are expecting a dry day with south winds 5-15 mph.  High:  79°
• Saturday:  Mostly cloudy early in the morning, then very humid and warm.  High:  86°
• Sunday:  Dry most of the day. A risk of severe thunderstorms during the evening or at night.  High:  84°

Did you see the cumulonimbus cloud as the sun was beginning to set tonight?  This thunderstorm was about to dissipate near I-35 north of Cameron, MO:

I pointed at the penetrating top, which is often called an “overshooting top”, which is a dome-like protrusion that shoots through the cumulonimbus anvil cloud.  This is caused by a strong updraft. This updraft pushes the building cumulonimbus cloud through the previous anvil that had spread out from another previously strong updraft.   Now, will we see stronger versions of these thunderstorms later this weekend?

A strong wave of energy will be ripping out into the plains states on Sunday afternoon and evening and we are concerned that all of the conditions may be coming together for our most serious severe weather risk in a very long time, over a year for sure.  We should all pay close attention to these late weekend developments. Here is one of the surface forecast solutions valid Sunday evening:

The models have been all over the place with varying solutions of the late weekend into early next week weather pattern………I am waiting on one more model run before I finish this blog entry….

New Data Update 11 AM:  The morning data is still coming in and at first glance there is still no clear cut solution, which is typical of a storm of this type. We know that the conditions for severe weather will be coming together on Sunday and Monday across our area. And, the GFS is somewhat impressive on Kansas City being one of the target areas. The uncertainties lie on the timing of thunderstorms and where they will be located.  The GFS model just came out with a strong band of thunderstorms forecast early Sunday morning and then a long wait until regeneration during the late afternoon or evening to our west.  The NAM has it’s own solution, but has some similarities.  We will learn more about this unique set-up every few hours and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

There is a slight risk for Sunday and the Storm Prediction Center has some stronger wording for our area.  You can click on the map on the left for a larger view.  From the SPC: “Forecast soundings at 00z/Mon (7 PM Sunday) from Kansas City south southwestward to Tulsa and Oklahoma City show MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500 J/KG with 0-6 KM shear in the 45 to 55 kt range.  A mid-level jet is forecast to move through the base of the upper level trough helping to increase deep layer shear profiles as the event unfolds.  This along with steep development.  Large hail including hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant super cells. In addition…a low-level jet is forecast to intensify early Sunday evening which should create low-level shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.  A few strong tornadoes may also occur”

The conditions will be coming together, but there are still uncertainties and we will go over the latest data on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions/comments and have a great weekend. Kalee Dionne will be writing her first Action Weather Blog entry in the morning.  Be sure to watch 41 Action News, and we’ll keep you advised.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

I am asking you to participate in the summer forecast which I will discuss near the end of today’s blog entry.  Our summer forecast will come out on Monday night.

Texas tornadoes are the lead weather story this morning.  Severe thunderstorms erupted all around Dallas last night and there were a few tornadoes.  Granbury, TX was hit particularly hard and there are five or six fatalities. They new the tornado was coming, but likely didn’t expect it to be as strong as it was.  What has been a rather quiet severe weather season suddenly became deadly last night.

The severe weather risk will be increasing this weekend and Kansas City is one of the possible targets.  Here is a map of one of many surface solutions for Sunday and this solution may be too slow:

Most of the models have a faster surface solution in response to a stronger and negatively tilted upper level wave of energy ejecting out into the plains:

The wave of energy coming out on Sunday looks to be strong enough to force the surface features farther east, which would increase our severe weather risk.  Now, let’s remember that this set up is still three days away. I would like to spend a bit more time analyzing the parameters before super analyzing the potential scenarios, if that makes sense.  We will look into this on 41 Action News today and tonight.  Kansas City has missed almost every severe weather situation and set-up for over a year now, so let’s pay close attention.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed these risks over our area for Sunday/Monday.  ”Medium-Range models remain in broad/general agreement that substantial severe weather potential exists days 4-5, Sunday 5-19, and Monday 5-20, and possibly into day 6.  However, rather pronounced differences in timing/location of short-wave features casts substantial uncertainty regarding details of the upcoming scenario”

I agree with what they are saying, and this is why we should wait another day or so until we spend a lot of time analyzing specific timing and details.  At the same time we will likely be turning on one of our red lights on our 7 day severe weather risk graphic tonight, unless the uncertainties continue.

What do you think the summer will be like? Answer these questions and add commentary if you would like:

1. Will we have below, near, or above average temperatures in June, July, and August?
2. Will we have below, near, or above average rainfall in June, July, and August?
3. What are the chances of a major heat wave? Do you think we will have one?

Please let me know what your thoughts are and I will write up a summary of the bloggers summer forecast thoughts.  Thank you for participating and for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

It was a sizzling hot May day on Tuesday.  It’s hard to believe that it has been less than two weeks since the rare May snow  This map shows the high of 106° at Sioux City, IA, and 101° in Omaha yesterday:

A very weak and weakening cold front will stall and wash out tonight into Thursday. This will limit the potential for thunderstorms. The humidity should increase substantially today and a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, most likely near the weakening front just north of Kansas City.  Here is the rainfall probabilities map I showed last night:

The dew points will be increasing today and we will have to see if the atmosphere will become more unstable this afternoon for a few thunderstorms to develop. There is a very weak upper level storm also forming near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.  For now, we are keeping the chances fairly low.  I do expect a few thunderstorms to form and I am just not confident in where the exact locations will be at the moment.  This surface forecast just came out this morning and is valid at 7 PM this evening.  The best chance of any thunderstorms will be near the front, and it will likely be north of Kansas City.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed risks on days 4, 5, and 6 as you can see on the map. Click on the map for a larger view.  The severe weather risk will increase Sunday into Monday as a storm approaches.  This storm is the one I had expected in the middle of May and it has been in the forecast on my Weather 2020 site for months already. You can see how this part of the pattern compares to the previous four cycles of the LRC on the Weather 2020 blog by clicking here:  This Severe Weather Set Up And The LRC.  I will end up being off by around four to five days, and on the forecast that I made 12 weeks ago.  This cycle is just slightly longer than the past few cycles, but still in the range of 51 to 57 days.  It really is amazing how this next storm is right on schedule and I posted this part of the cycling pattern from each cycle on Weather 2020.

How exactly is this going to set up? We haven’t had much of a severe weather season, but this storm is going to produce some severe weather over a three to four day stretch beginning Saturday way out west.

We will go over the details of the latest data on 41 Action News tonight beginning at 4 pM.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any comments or questions.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

4:20 PM Update:

We did tie or set a record high today. Here are the 4 PM temperatures:

 It was 96° at St. Joseph, just two days after Sunday morning’s latest freeze ever, a record low of 32°! 

Previous entry below:

Temperatures will jump to near 90° this afternoon.  And, then a weakening cold front will approach us Wednesday, but this front may not make it as far south as Kansas City.  Here is a graphic we showed last night on 41 Action News:

Last spring had a huge start to tornado season in March into April, but then it quieted down in May as the jet stream retreated early and the drought developed over our region.  This year has been very different. It has been a cold spring and the thunderstorms have mostly developed behind the cold fronts in the colder air and this has protected most areas from any serious severe weather.

The storm approaching us tomorrow is very weak and the winds aloft will be light. This will limit the  severe weather potential for Wednesday. There will be a cold front stalling as it approaches on Wednesday.  It may never reach Kansas City:

With the front stalling to our north most of the thunderstorms may also stay near the front. There is also a very weak upper level circulation that will be near our area as well, so we may have other areas of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Friday in the area, but I am not sure how organized they will be.

By the end of the weekend there is a much better chance of stronger thunderstorms:

The evolution of this weather pattern during the next week will be discussed on 41 Action News today and tonight. Have a great Tuesday.

Gary

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Good morning,

The weather will be nearly perfect today with light winds and a high near 77°.  The EOI (Eat Outside Index) will be a perfect 10 this afternoon and evening.  A huge warm-up will arrive on Tuesday with a high expected in the lower 90s, and then a weakening cold front will approach the area Wednesday.

Click on this map for a larger view, as it shows the number of days since each National Weather Service office has issued a tornado warning.  For Pleasant Hill and Topeka, the two NWS offices that service our viewing area, it has been a record long time.  It has been 380 days since Topeka issued a tornado warning, and 371 days since Pleasant Hill issued one. Do you remember that day last year?  It was on May 6th when two small tornadoes touched down with no damage reported in Olathe and Raytown.  Here is a picture taken by Brandon Stafford in Olathe:

We caught this tornado developing live on Skytracker, but even though it touched down we had not even one report of a branch broken off of a tree.  This was the last tornado warning from the Pleasant Hill office.

The flow aloft this week will likely be too weak for any serious tornado risk, but as we move through this month we are expecting the flow aloft to strengthen and storm chasers will be paying close attention.  But before we have any severe weather risk it is the warm up that has our attention on Tuesday.

Have a great start to the week and we will look ahead to Wednesday’s chance of thunderstorms on 41 Action News.

Gary

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Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope you are all doing well on this Mother’s Day 2013.  The weather pattern has calmed down, but it is still a bit cool.  As I have been around town I am frequently being asked when will it warm up?  One of the people that have asked is my mother.  Well, I have a nice Mother’s day present for her.

A dramatic warm up is about to take place as warm air will be surging east across the Plains.  This will be caused by what we call a “U”.  This “U” shows up in the shape of the isobars and when a location is located at the bottom to middle of the “U” warm ups can get out of control, even warmer than the models say.

Here is a look at the surface map for Tuesday afternoon.  As you can see much of the Plains is in a “U” with our region at the bottom of the shape.  This “U” shape forms when there is a warm front to the east, trough to the west and cold front well northwest.  The surface low is found well to the north.  These “U” shapes can occur at all times of year.  Since it is the middle of May and there will be plenty of sunshine and dry air this will cause all areas to rise well into the 80s.  There will be an area of low to mid 90s as well!  Map #2 shows the forecast highs for Tuesday.

MAP #1: SURFACE MAP TUESDAY

MAP #2: Forecast highs for Tuesday

This is incredible with highs in KC near 90 and areas across Nebraska well into the 90s!  Now this will be the warmest day of the week as the cold front in the Rockies will move in Wednesday increasing our chance for thunderstorms.  We will have more on this Monday.

So, Happy Mother’s Day mom, it is finally going to warm up!

Have a great day!

Jeff Penner

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Good Saturday morning bloggers,

The jet stream is dipping south across the upper midwest and this will help bring a colder and drier air mass into our region today.  The winds are going to shift to the northwest and increase for a few hours today before calming down tonight.  With the clear sky and lighter winds later tonight we can expect temperatures to drop into the 30s in a few spots. There may be some patchy frost in the morning, especially across northern Missouri.

Here is the 8 AM surface map:

With another cold May air mass coming in we continue to have no severe weather.  This next map comes from the Iowa Environment Mesonet and it shows how long it has been since a National Weather Service Office issued a tornado warning. Wichita, KS must have issued one with those thunderstorms a couple of days ago, but look at Topeka and Pleasant Hill. It has been over a year:

This statistic really shows how quiet it has been in our region. Remember, in 2012 the KC metro area was not even under one tornado watch. Yes, the entire year did not have one watch. We have had one so far this year.

On Sunday a weak disturbance will be approaching Kansas City from the northwest.  There will be very limited moisture, but the clouds will likely thicken up and there is a good chance of a small area of rain showers developing with Kansas City being on the northeastern edge of this system.

Happy Mother’s Day!  It should be a cool Mother’s Day this year.  A big warming trend will begin late Sunday and by Tuesday we will make a surge deep into the 80s approaching 90°.   Have a great weekend.

Gary

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Good morning, It’s Friday!

Kansas City has been getting enough rain since spring began, but amazingly there has been a record low number of severe weather reports not just in Kansas City, but across all of tornado alley, and all of North America:

May Severe Weather Reports across the United States:

• May 1:  3o reports, 0 tornadoes
• May 2:  9 reports, 1 tornado in Florida
• May 3:  0, 0
• May 4:  11 reports, 5 florida weak tornadoes
• May 5: 1, 0
• May 6:  32 reports, 1 tornado near Bakersfield, CA
• May 7:  32 reports, 0 tornadoes
• May 8:  71 reports, 2 tornadoes

Total:  172 severe weather reports and only 9 tornadoes during the first 8 days of May.  Wow!

At least it has been raining. Last year Kansas City had a rainfall total of 2.93″ during all of April and May. So far we have had more than double that total already this year:

Who had hail last night?  This cumulonimbus cloud produced a lot of pea sized hail on the south side of the KC metro area last evening.  There was a nice rain free base ( left) with some interesting lowerings, and a heavy rain/hail shaft, the dark shade down to the ground:

So, when will we have our next chance of thunderstorms? The jet stream is retreating north next week. This will allow a warm-up into the 80s by Tuesday.  The next potential thunderstorms in our area will arrive Wednesday or Thursday, but again the severe weather risk appears it will be low with higher chances near the Great Lakes.

Have a great weekend. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog!

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

In the past week we have gone from snow to thunderstorms, with some nice weather in between.  Ronn Hamblin sent in this picture of the Morel mushrooms popping up near Truman Lake last Saturday morning:

What lies ahead?  There is a weak front that will be moving across our local area this evening. We may destabilize enough to have a few thunderstorms form near this front, otherwise the chance of rain will be going down for a while.

The drought ended in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago and we have had enough rain/snow to help on our water bills so far this spring.  Next week may be that first week this year where we may need to water the lawn.  Let’s see how that sets up with a big warming trend.

The map to the left was issued by the Climate Prediction Center and it shows the continued ending of the drought over our area.

Have a great Thursday! We will check back in and update the blog if thunderstorms begin forming near the front.

Gary

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