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The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis Accuracy: Drought To Deluge-Wet or Dry Close By

Good morning bloggers,

Today we will look at the fascinating distribution of rainfall through the plains.  In the early winter Weather2020 made a prediction that a drought would develop and expand in response to the mean ridge that has been a major part of this years cycling pattern.  This mean ridge was one of the biggest reasons for why snowfall totals were so low this past winter over many areas.  The pattern continues to cycle according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and the new and unique pattern is still five to six weeks away from setting up.  Remember, this years pattern is cycling in the 56-61 day range centered on 58.5 days.  We have been using 59 as the main cycle length, but it still oscillates in that 56-61 day range. This is how Weather2020 made an incredibly accurate prediction for what was going to happen on eclipse day 55 days before  Mondays total eclipse of the sun.  Weather2020 has been making incredibly increasingly more accurate forecasts for years and we continue to learn more as we conduct our research.  Today is yet another example of seeing how having knowledge of the cycling pattern works.  What happened in Kansas City 59 days ago?  Do you remember?  It was late June. 59 days before August 23rd is June 25th.  Take a look:

  • June 25th in Kansas City:  Sunny with high pressure in control.  There were light winds. High: 76°, Low: 54°
  • 59 days later today:  Sunny with high pressure in control.  There will be very light winds. High:  79°, Low:  56°

Incredible. Just think about it. There was a pretty lively discussion on the blog yesterday, and we have had many discussions over the past 15 years that we have been sharing this with you.  Oh, yes, our peers are pretty skeptical, but skepticism is part of being a scientist. They need to open their mind a bit more to what is actually happening in the cycling pattern within the westerly belt. And, yes, we have a peer review paper that is currently being revised for submission. We will be sharing this paper in a few months.  You can get down to a specific date, all the way down to the level of predicting where a tornado is most likely going to occur using this technology.  We predicted the Super Bowl forecast for the outdoor event in East Rutherford New Jersey.  Here is the link to that forecast from over 3 years ago that made it into NJ.com:  Super Bowl Prediction Published  And, today’s example is a perfect example of how a prediction of todays weather could have been made for todays date.  We don’t mind the criticism at all. Those of you who are skeptical that we can do any of this is somewhat baffling to us, but also understandable.  We will present our hypothesis in a peer review format soon, but we have been presenting it here for years already.

So, where is the drought that we predicted would grow this spring and summer. Kansas City is certainly in about the exact opposite of a drought right? Well look at the drought monitor:

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Well, there it is. The drought actually did develop. So many of our readers are from Kansas City, so when I am wrong for this one region, my goodness, do we hear about it, and we should.  Did I expect 28.80 inches of rain to fall during the summer months near Kansas City? NO WAY? We were under that ridge, right. Well, the ridges never stopped moving.  The cycling pattern produced this set up for the summer, but the drought did indeed form and not that far away.  Take a look at these rainfall totals:

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I think Mother Nature wanted to just let me have it for predicting a dry pattern.  Is there a way to have made a prediction for this one rather localized area to be targeted over and over again using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? I believe there is a way, and we have done it many times. But, this one I did not forecast well at all.  And, as a result my water bill was an all time low this summer as I never turned on my water the entire summer. That is pretty hard to believe.

So, what is next?

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High pressure is in control for a few days while we watch a potential hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Harvey will likely regenerate today and the water is very warm, it will move slowly, and it may have enough time to strengthen significantly. This will grab weather attention around the USA in the next 48 hours. Could this have been predicted using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis? YES, and we did make this prediction, and I can show you how it can be done.  We made a prediction for this to form around eclipse week, and it was discussed in this blog.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Join in the conversation over on the Weather2020 blog if you want.  Go Royals!

Gary

Another Excessive Rain Event In The KC Metro Area

Good morning bloggers,

I have never seen a rain event this wide spread over the entire KC metro area. I have seen 6 inches of rain in a few events, but never over 6 inches in so many spots extending from KCI Airport south to the south metro area and beyond. Take a look at the rainfall totals as Sunny The Weather Dog poses today:

Rain Event

I just checked my rainfall from the July 27th flooding event and my place in Overland Park had 6.55″ on that day, wow!  To have a 6.44″ and 6.55″ rainfall events is just hard to imagine, but it happened.  Here is the radar rainfall estimate from Pleasant Hill, MO. This is an image taken from Weathertap.com. This is actually underestimating the actual totals in many areas:

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The Accurate Forecast From 55 Days Before The Eclipse:

Tropical Storm Cindy was coming into the Texas/Louisiana coast 59 days before, and it is no coincidence that Tropical Storm Harvey is about to explode in strength during the next two days.  I was trying a bit too hard to be optimistic in our weather forecast for yesterday as many computer models did have showers and thunderstorms modeled fairly well. We still thought the heavy rain event would happen Monday night, but it began much earlier in the day.  Here is the video Jeff Penner and I made 55 days before:

What happened in the last cycle? It rained that morning and much cooler air moved in dropping our lows into the 50s, almost all the way into the 40s. Something quite similar has happened and right on cycle.

The flooding is rather incredible as well this morning across parts of the KC metro area. I was watching a family of seven with their dog sitting on a roof as I was finishing up the blog. Remember, turn around, don’t drown. Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

Did You Think Eclipse Day Was Going To Be Like This?

Good evening bloggers,

So, what can I say? And, yes Weather2020 did make the accurate prediction for this Eclipse Day from 55 days out. An accurate 55 day forecast that we will discuss more tomorrow.  Now, when we get down to the specifics I am quite amazed by meteorology and astronomy today.

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This is looking like a south metro area flooding risk once again.  But, the north side got blasted between 2 and 4 PM today with over 4″ of rain estimated by our radar near Weatherby Lake.  Here is how it started this morning:

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At this moment, around 7:43 AM, as I was doing rule #1 and seeing these thunderstorms form, I did not expect what was about to happen next.  Take a look at around two hours later:

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We just happened to be in the right spot, or wrong spot for those who ended up under the clouds for the eclipse. I was in a great spot in Liberty, MO. But, then look at what happened when I got back to the station:

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New thunderstorms formed and produced rainfall rates of 3″/hour rate or possibly more.  We have reports of over 3″ of rain, and radar estimates that over 4″ of rain may have fallen.  This caused a flash flood, and thank goodness there were no injuries reported, but some homes and streets were flooded.

Now, we are anticipating what may happen tonight. I am still doing the analysis as it is still evolving, but the south side is the most likely spot to be affected by flooding rains overnight.  That outflow boundary is now just sitting near the KC metro area and it will likely be the focus for new thunderstorms.

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This is one of the forecasts for rainfall amounts tonight. Let’s see how this evolves in the next few hours.

Gary

Total Eclipse Day Has Arrived With A Few Clouds

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with the good news.  Remember what rule #1 of weather forecasting is: Always look outside because you never know!  Rule #2 is look at the satellite and radar and see what is happening and what has been happening in the past few minutes and hours.  Then, look at the computer models is rule #3. Then make up your own mind, which is what we do for you on 41 Action News and on Weather2020.com.  Most forecasters make the mistake of looking at the computer models first and then believing them and thus not making up their own mind. So, they use rule #3 before rules #1 and #2, which is why so many forecasts end up wrong and inaccurate.  So, let’s begin with rule #1:

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Sunny The Weather Dog shows us that the cloud cover is thin and right now it would be almost perfect for the eclipse. But, this is still a few hours away from the beginning of the eclipse which will reach totality on the north side of KC around 1:08 PM.  Let’s now do rule #2:

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There is a tropical disturbance moving northeast across Kansas. This has produced an area of rain as you can see below:

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I am not that concerned with this area of rain over Kansas as it is the type of system that will weaken during the morning, but at the same time it is there and we have to monitor it closely.  What would usually happens with this type of weak system would be for it to fall apart and the clouds would then break up and slowly dissipate.  This would be perfect for most of our region.  So, it is looking good.

Now back to rule #1, which needs to be done every few minutes:

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These clouds formed while I was writing this blog entry. Do you see why you must always use rule #1? And, yes, that is a small thunderstorm over southern Johnson county. I made the argument last week that a few morning showers and thunderstorms would actually be a good thing. When these fall apart later this morning, there is a good chance that the sinking air will then provide even better conditions for the eclipse. I am just looking for that silver lining.

Rule #3 is looking at the models, and they have trended into a pretty good viewing day for the eclipse. We just will likely have a few clouds around that could affect the viewing a bit, but it may also add to the experience. We will just have to enjoy it anyway it happens as we can’t control the weather. Rule #4 is make up your own mind. I am forecasting very good conditions in most areas for the eclipse viewing. The weather pattern did set up almost exactly as we forecasted using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis from 55 days ago.  Another incredible forecast from Weather2020.

Thunderstorms tonight:

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The National Weather Service has a Flash Flood Watch that will go into effect tonight.  There will be a slow moving cold front interacting with some high levels of humidity and heat today. 1″ to 5″ of rain are likely in the KC viewing area tonight. Where will it exactly set up?  This potential flooding event will target areas north of I-70 first and then by around 10 PM to 1 AM the risk will shift to south of I-70.  We will pick out the exact locations on the air later today and tonight.

I am on my way up to Liberty, MO to view the eclipse from South Valley Middle School.  We will be reporting from all over the area on our special at noon today.  Have a great day. We will update the blog later today after the eclipse.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience!  Go to Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Gary

Thunderstorms, Heat and a Total Solar Eclipse

Good Sunday,

We have a much going on in the weather department as we are tracking chances of thunderstorms, heat and a three hour period Monday that has a total solar eclipse and we do not want thunderstorms for those hours.  We will take you through this afternoon through Tuesday morning and just look how much will be changing in the weather and sky.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The morning thunderstorms will be long gone and it will become hot and humid with the heat index rising to around 100°. It will be dry and muggy this evening.

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MONDAY MORNING: There will be a few thunderstorms with temperatures in the 70s.  The bigger thunderstorms will likely be in Iowa.

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MONDAY (1141 AM to 235 PM): Now to the eclipse.

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Here is the forecast we put out about 55 days ago using the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis).  We have not touched this forecast since it was made.

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Here is what the latest data, 1 day before the eclipse shows regarding clouds.  So, not a bad forecast using the CPH.  If you want to see the eclipse with hardly a cloud in the sky you would have to travel to Wyoming off to the west or be in the Tennessee Valley.  Lets break down the situation in our local area.

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MONDAY (11:41 AM):

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MONDAY (1:08 PM):

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MONDAY (2:35 PM):

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You can see that there are clouds and they could be extensive.  However, before panic sets in, it is looking like the majority of clouds will be cirrus.  This means the sun/eclipse will be mostly visible through the clouds.  Now, there will be patches of mid level clouds, altocumulus and altostratus along with a few cumulus.  Let’s hope where you are that those lower clouds are not over the sun for the :40 to 2:40 that the total solar eclipse is occurring.

This is what we are thinking the sky will look like as the clouds move through the sky.  We are hoping for mostly thin cirrus clouds.

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Enjoy the eclipse, and even if there are clouds, the environment around you will be quite unique and special.  There is really no reason to change locations as the cloud situation is similar all across the region.  The only reason to change locations is if there is going to be a clear cut bad area apparent in the morning, or you can hop on a plane and fly to Wyoming or leave for those areas today.

 

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MONDAY (5 PM to 8 PM): After the eclipse we will turn our attention to thunderstorms as a cold front moves in from the northwest and combines with a monsoon disturbance now in New Mexico.  The timing of this disturbance will play a role in the thickness of the cirrus during the eclipse.  A slower disturbance is what is preferred.

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MONDAY (8 PM to MIDNIGHT): Thunderstorms will be increasing and there is a chance of strong winds, hail and flash flooding.

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TUESDAY (MIDNIGHT to 8 AM): There will be many rounds of thunderstorms with flash flooding a possible issue as rainfall amounts will reach 1″ to 3″ with some locations seeing 3″ to 6″.

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After the thunderstorms end Tuesday morning we will be looking at some great weather Wednesday-Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, lows in the 50s to low 60s, abundant sunshine and lower humidity.

Have a great week and enjoy the eclipse.

Jeff Penner

Thunderstorm Chances and Eclipse Forecast

Good Saturday,

We have an important forecast for Monday as we experience the rare total solar eclipse.  Before we get to that we have a weekend forecast and there is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday.

So, let’s go through the forecast.

SATURDAY: This is going to be a great day to head to the pool with sunshine, highs around 90° and a light wind.  Too bad the eclipse is not today.

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SUNDAY MORNING: We will be tracking scattered thunderstorms coming in from the west around 3-5 AM.  We do not expect flooding or severe weather, but there could be a few heavy downpours and big flashes of lightning.

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SUNDAY MORNING: There will be scattered thunderstorms around until about noon.  Some locations may see .25″ to 1″ of rain, while other see a trace or none.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The rain chance drops to about 20% to 30% as it will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the 80s.

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Ok, now to the eclipse.

This is the timing for the Kansas City area.  We will reach the maximum at 1:08 PM, but the event lasts about three hours.

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Here are the percentages across the USA, it is pretty cool that we are near the 100%.  Chicago is close to 90%.

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Here is a closer look into the KC area on the eclipse details.  I will be happy on the Plaza, as I will be at 41 Action News, at about 99.8% as the last eclipse I saw was in 3rd grade, 1979.  KC was not close to the totality, but I remember a dusky look to the sky.

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The length of totality in downtown KC will be about 40 seconds, while right on the line it will be 2:40.  Enjoy every second.

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If you are in the 99% region, it will still be darn cool and likely pretty dark.

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MONDAY 11:41 AM: As we predicted 55 days ago, we said there would be a chance of clouds.  This is not a cop out forecast as you can see this is what we are facing.  There is no big organized system and there is no particular region that will be totally free of clouds.  Now, that being said, as we get into the day, we will be able to better pinpoint the clear and more clouded areas.

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MONDAY AT TOTALITY: Yes, there are clouds, but this depiction is just the latest data and not set in stone.  So, you could make a decision to move based on this, but that could end up being a worse choice.  So, I would stay the course.

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Should you drive to Nebraska?  What about central or southeast Missouri? The answer for me is no, as you can see there will be scattered clouds around in all the states, so it is nearly impossible in this weather set up to pinpoint the exact location and timing of the cloud areas.  This is not like forecasting the position of the sun, moon and Earth.

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ECLIPSE SUMMARY: So, the entire event lasts about three hours and wear protective glasses the whole time.  Yes, you can take the glasses off during totality, but it is so brief, and timing it perfectly is hard and not worth the risk.  You can see the eclipse image on the ground from leaf shadows.  Also, if you are in a clear area during the totality in the totality location you may see shimmering shadows.  This is the sun rays passing through the topography of the moon.  The temperature may drop a few degrees, you might be able to see Mercury or even Neptune.  Will animals be disoriented?  There are all sorts of things to observe.  Enjoy the experience and do not be stressed if some clouds move by as it will be incredible no matter what, just as long as there is not a thick low overcast.  We do not expect that to occur.

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Have a great weekend and we will have an update Sunday.

Jeff Penner

Tropical Storm Harvey, The Eclipse, & Forecast Thoughts

Good morning, It’s FRIDAY!

The eclipse is just three days away, unless you watched us on TV last night and heard my cohost try to say it is only two days away. I tried to explain that tomorrow is Saturday, that is one day, and Sunday is two days away, so Monday is three days away, which of course we all know who was right, but she insisted. I will try to explain again on 41 Action News tonight, and you can watch my Facebook.com/garylezak live at 9 PM tonight and we will discuss the eclipse forecast, the tropics and more.  Anyway, take a look at this mornings enhanced water vapor satellite picture:

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Tropical Storm Harvey has formed east of the islands. If you remember, we forecasted 55 days before the eclipse day that there would likely be a tropical storm or hurricane forming on the week of the eclipse and here it is right on schedule. It is no coincidence. There is another system north of Harvey worth monitoring as well, but that system has some northerly shear over the top of it at the moment. Harvey has a better chance for development, but it is way to the south.  Take a look at where the European Model finally shows a system tracking later next week:

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This model has not had any system for a few days now, but last nights run picked up on it. There are other models that bring this into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas the GFS model doesn’t have any system. The models have been horrible all year, so let’s just keep monitoring this day by day.

The weather for the eclipse is looking a bit better right now. Yes, clouds will likely be around Monday. I will go more in-depth on television tonight, in the blogs over the weekend, and on Facebook and twitter as well. You can follow me on twitter at GLezak, or like my Facebook page with my full name.  Have a great weekend and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and Weather2020.com.

Gary

Incredibly Sunny Today, but what about for the eclipse?

Good Thursday evening bloggers,

The weather is incredibly clear today. This would have been a perfect day for the eclipse. We can’t control the weather, but if we could I would have ordered a day just like this one for Mondays total eclipse of the sun.

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Look  at that clear sky, a picture taken from 4 PM Thursday afternoon.  The sky is likely to have many more clouds near KC on Monday. How will it look Monday afternoon for that critical two minutes, and for the hour around those two minutes?  This is something we will have to keep monitoring. The latest data does show some clouds and possibly even some morning convective showers. I would almost prefer some morning convection as it could be good for clearing in the early afternoon.

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Tropical Storm Harvey has formed.  We will look deeper into the increasingly active tropics in Fridays blog. Have a great evening and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

Gary

Heavy Rain & Flooding Potential

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • This morning: A few showers and thunderstorms staying below severe levels. A few heavy downpours and cloudy skies.  Temperatures will be tropical in the 70s.
  • This afternoon:  Heating up with high humidity.  High:  85°
  • Tonight:  A chance of a strong line of thunderstorms with very heavy rain possible between 7 and 10 PM.

A few areas of thunderstorms have greeted the plains on this August 16th morning.  The largest complex of thunderstorms was over north central Kansas and was a Mesoscale Convective System showing some organization. This will track east this morning and then weaken.  After this goes by, there will likely be enough time for the atmosphere to destabilize ahead of a developing frontal system and summer storm.

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There is another potential heavy rain event setting up near KC.  There are a few factors that may come together this evening to place some areas near Kansas City to have over 3″ of rain, and the areas that get that much would likely experience some flooding. Anything more than 3″ would increase the risk of a flooding event.

  • Ingredient #1: Low level moisture. We once again have high levels of moisture available from the Gulf of Mexico. The Dew Points are forecast to be reaching the middle to upper 70s as we approach sunset
  • Ingredient #2:  A cold front will slowly move in from the west and will likely be the focusing mechanism for the heavy thunderstorms this evening
  • Ingredient #3:  A series of weak upper level disturbances in a rare summer pattern. There is an upper level trough swinging out over the plains today

Concern:  We must monitor the morning showers and thunderstorms as it may very well affect the late day set-up.  We will know more as we move into the late afternoon hours. Let’s take a look.

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The front will be approaching Kansas City this evening and the humidity will once again become rather extreme and pool along and ahead of this front. This will provide the fuel for potential very heavy rainfall. The front should move fast enough to keep amounts from getting out of control, but we have to monitor this very closely as it develops this evening.

Todays Severe Weather Risk:

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The main severe weather types expected will be some marginally large hail on the first thunderstorms that form, and possibly some damaging winds. Lighting will help cause some power outages, and flooding is the main risk today.

The weather pattern will calm down significantly tomorrow as you can see on this forecast map below.

1Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern.  You can leave a comment here or join in the conversation over on Weather2020.com.  Have a great day. Let’s see how this evolves today.

Gary

Thunderstorms In The Wednesday Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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Minimal Hurricane Gert with 74 mph winds at its center is tracking harmlessly out to sea over the Atlantic Ocean. You can see Gert on this surface analysis that is valid Wednesday morning, below:

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We have another rather interesting summer set-up across the plains states that is in the development phase today. By early Wednesday morning, as you can see above, there is another interesting frontal system tracking over the plains states. A surface trough extends from near the USA/Canada border south to west Texas. A rather weak warm front, but it is still obvious in the isobars, is forecast to extend from near Salina, KS east southeast to northern Tennessee.  A cold front will be developing as well. I can likely be analyzed on this surface map, but it isn’t obvious so I left it off. That surface trough will become the cold front by evening, or part of it will become the cold front.  High levels of low level moisture are available for this system and rainfall rates in the slow moving thunderstorms could be 2″/hour or greater. This will  likely result in a few spots getting up to 3″ of rain if it rains for more than an hour or two in your location.

Let’s see how the morning data comes in and we will monitor and share this with you on the Weather2020 blog and social media.  Have a great Tuesday!

Gary