Video Blog: A Look Into This Next Part Of The Cycling Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

My biggest take away from what I discuss in the video blog today:  “We will get 8.3″ of snow again in this next LRC cycle and by around the middle of January!”   What is this weather pattern all about?  During this next week, the weather pattern will begin cycling through the part of the pattern that produced 8.3″ of snow in KC.  And, I am predicting that between now and mid-January we will have the potential of getting that much in this second cycle.  The models have not done well, so keep monitoring closely.

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This map above shows a wet and slow moving storm system forecast to develop between Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas; with this map valid Wednesday night December 26th.  Just look at this storm system, pretty impressive, and yet I still have no confidence on how it will set up.  The pattern is quite complex.  Here is today’s video blog:

A look into the Christmas week weather pattern from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

 

Today will be another great day in KC.  We will monitor this closely and discuss over on the Weather2020 blog.  Have a great Tuesday!

Gary

Looking Into Christmas Week

Good morning bloggers,

The computer models have been all over the place for Christmas week. Model solutions have had snow storms, rain storms, warm, cold, dry, wet, windy, calm…just about everything and anything you can think of as possible weather for Christmas Day.  Look at the latest European Model for one day after Christmas:

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Take a look at this map closely and here are my take aways from this 10-day model projection from the ECMWF:

  1. There is a major trough predicted to form over the southwestern United States on this model.  Look carefully, and you will be able to see an upper low over eastern Arizona
  2. There is an Arctic air mass over Canada with a surface high north of Minnesota, and it is attached to another surface high over the Arctic Ocean
  3. A strong surface low is near the Mexico/USA border over southwestern Texas.
  4. The Gulf of Mexico is wide open with tremendous amounts of moisture available
  5. There is a split in the upper level flow west of Seattle

Is this just a fantasy storm?  Do other models support this solution?  There is some support from other models, and we will just have to monitor this closely.  Ahead of this system, there is a lead storm system that is forecast to move across around Christmas Day:

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This model, also from last night European Model, shows snow over northern Missouri on Christmas morning.  There have been other models that have had snow and rain near KC on Christmas.  There have also been some models that show snow and rain near KC, and yet others that have dry and warm.  There is a very low confidence level on the forecast for next week at this moment. I don’t like to take all hope out for a white Christmas when there is truly a chance that something changes significantly and fast.  I have seen it before, where I have gone all the way down to a 2% chance of a white Christmas, only to change it back to a 90% chance just two days before Christmas.  The LRC is still coming into focus. The LRC light bulb glows brightly every year by around the first week of January. It is still mid-December, so the LRC only provides a little insight now.  I have known enough to predict that there is a likely storm on Christmas week, and that there is a chance of a cold outbreak. In the first cycle of the LRC there was not one Arctic outbreak.  I did see a couple parts of this pattern capable of an Arctic outbreak, however, and we just have to wait and see how the pattern develops.

This last map, some eye candy for those of you holding out hope for a white Christmas, shows the FV3-GFS model from yesterday with heavy snow and rain right near KC on Christmas morning.  This is just a fantasy model run, and it just shows how it is still just too early to make the call.  I don’t lean in any direction yet, keeping hope alive!

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. Another great day with light winds. High: 55°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light winds again. High:  55°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers.  High:  51°
  • Christmas week:  Two storm systems during the week with a chance of rain and snow.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather20202 and the LRC.  Have a great day and let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

Day by Day to Christmas

Good Sunday bloggers,

It is hard to believe Christmas is 9 days away (10 counting today). One of the only times of year when everyone loves snow is around Christmas. So, are we going to have a “White Christmas?” There are two storm systems to track. Let’s go by day.

DECEMBER 16TH: It will be another nice day with a light wind as a surface high pressure sits near Goodland.

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DECEMBER 17TH: The surface high pressure travels to Omaha tonight and then to near St. Louis on Monday. It will be another sunny day with a light wind. Clouds will increase from the southwest as a weak system moves in, no rain or snow.

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DECEMBER 18TH: This will be another nice day with highs around 50°. There will just be more clouds. The wind will be light again.

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DECEMBER 19TH: A large storm system will be getting it’s act together. It will be forming around here, so we will be on the western edge of the developing precipitation. It would be all rain as highs will be 45°-50°.

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DECEMBER 20TH: The storm becomes quite large with wind and rain. Notice, it is almost all rain, even in Michigan. So, if you are travelling east, there will be a storm, and delays, but easier to deal with than ice and snow. We will be breezy and cool with decreasing clouds, perhaps clouds and a shower early.

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DECEMBER 21ST: Winter begins at 4:23 PM. There is a chance it is raining in much of Ontario and Quebec, a bit odd for sure. We will have decent weather with highs in the 40s. The western 3/4 of the USA looks mostly calm.

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DECEMBER 22ND/23RD: The weather will be calm in the middle of the USA as the big eastern storm exits. A new big system will enter the west coast and it could have an impact on the Chiefs. They play the Seahawks next Sunday night on 41 Action News, Sunday Night Football in America. This is now a big game, because of last Thursday.  I will stop here about the Chiefs before I say something I will regret.

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CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: If we are going to have a “White Christmas”, then it will come down to the bottom of the 9th as a storm system is timed for these days. Right now it looks like a smaller system with rain south and snow north. So, we are at a 20% chance of a “White Christmas” at this time.

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Remember to try and see the Christmas comet tonight. It will be clear with almost no haze. Look to the eastern sky, near the horizon about 9-10 PM. You really need to get away from city lights and you may be able to see it without binoculars. However, binoculars and a telescope, are of course, preferable to see an object that small that is 70 million miles away.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Christmas Comet and Calm Weather for Awhile

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have a calm weather pattern through around Tuesday. Then, a more active pattern is likely. We will look at that below. The calm weather is timed well to view some interesting astronomical events this weekend.

CHRISTMAS COMET, AKA 46P:

To get a good look at Comet 46P, you’ll want to find the darkest possible viewing area, where the night sky is free of bright city lights.

It will appear just above the eastern horizon on the 16th, soaring between the V-shaped ‘horns’ of the constellation Taurus, EarthSky says.

At its closest point, Comet 46P will be just 7.1 million miles away (11.5 million kilometers) – or, about 30 times the distance between Earth and the moon, according to the University of Maryland.

While that might sound far away, researchers say it will be the 10th closest approach of a comet in modern history.

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GEMINID METEOR SHOWER:

We are past peak on this, but you can still see some meteors the next couple of nights. Although, tonight will be a bit tough as high clouds move overhead.

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We had a gorgeous sunrise as there was a deck of high clouds on the eastern horizon. Those clouds were due to a storm that almost brought rain to the Thursday Chiefs game and was bringing rain to eastern Missouri this morning. It is amazing how different the weather is on the other side of Missouri. This storm will spin away, leaving all locations with some great weekend weather. Highs will be 50°-55° with sunshine and a light wind. Tonight we will see more clouds as a weak system moves by. These clouds will keep lows up to 30°-35°.

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MONDAY-TUESDAY: The jet stream will be split in to two streams. The northern branch will be mostly west to east along the USA-Canadian border. This keeps the cold air bottled up in Canada along with no major storm systems. There will be a weak southern branch that has a weak system over the Southern Plains. This weak system will bring a a few showers to the southern Plains. Our area will be dry and mild.

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WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: The main jet stream will take a major dive south, gobbling up the southern branch. This will form a major storm in the eastern 1/2 of the USA. Our area will be on the western edge of this storm with wind, some rain and perhaps some wet snow. This storm is not really tapping the cold air, so it will be mostly a rain storm. We could see some snowflakes with rain showers. If the storm forms a bit faster, we could see more rain and perhaps snow. We will be following this through the week.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

A Blocking Pattern May Be Forming & Thoughts On Last Night

Good morning bloggers,

The chance of a white Christmas may be going up if some blocking forms over Greenland.  We will discuss this in today’s blog.  I didn’t get a lot of sleep last night after the frustration over the way the Chiefs lost last night.  It is just a game, so we will get over it. I am pretty much over it now.  I know on other social media there will be a lot of people telling me to “stick to weather”, and I will not take it personally.  I am just a huge sports fan, and it is just my opinion.  I think we just experience Andy Reid football once again.   Andy Reid is a great NFL football coach.  Everyone we know has strengths and weaknesses, and one of Andy Reid’s weaknesses has to do with how he manages games and leads in big games.  We have a history of losing huge leads in big games; examples are in last years playoff loss at Arrowhead after leading 21-3 in the third quarter. They lost 22-21.  And, it happened fast.  Another example is in the Indianapolis loss in the playoffs in 2014 when the Chiefs lead 38-10 in the fourth quarter.  They lost 45-44.  They had the ball at the end, in each game, so Mahomes would likely not have let this happen in those two outcomes.  Last night Mahomes didn’t get the ball.  Andy Reid went conservative last night with the lead again, as the Chiefs lead 14-0, 21-7, and 28-14.  This happened again.  Now this wasn’t a playoff loss. So, let’s hope they got this out of their system. The Chiefs still control their own destiny, and they now must win at Seattle, then at home on the last game of the season against Oakland.  I think they will do it, and we will feel better.  I have a few more takes, and I will discuss this on Sports Radio 810 WHB this morning.

Okay, back to the chance of a white Christmas.  The probability of a white Christmas will be going way up if this blocking does indeed develop in the next week:

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This map above shows the GFS model from the midnight run last night.  The High with the red circle around it is a rather strong upper level high closing off just east of Greenland.  This somewhat happened a few weeks ago and it lead to some rather cold weather in the past few weeks and 8.3″ of snow early in this season at KCI Airport.  A block is not forecast to form on all of the models, so we will keep monitoring this in the next few days.  When blocking forms over Alaska, northwest Canada, or Greenland, the jet stream is forced farther south and a becomes a bit more energized.  On this map above, a storm is approaching the plains on Christmas Eve.  It will be a real storm, if that blocking high does indeed develop.

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These next two maps, above, shows two different versions of possible snowstorms near KC as Santa Clause arrives around midnight Christmas Eve night.  Again, it may highly depend on how that block forms, if that block forms at all.  So, this is something to, at least for the moment, get our minds off of the KC Chiefs tough loss to take today.

Kansas City Forecast:  The weather looks great this weekend. The sun will return after a cloudy and cold start this morning, with highs reaching into the 50s Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click here for the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog  Let us know if you have any questions.

 

Gary