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Trying To Stay Positive

Good morning bloggers,

ZERO POINT ZERO EIGHT INCHES!  That is right, KCI Airport has had 0.08″ this month. The average July rainfall is around 4 1/2 inches.  I know we are all going to get tired of hearing this, but we are in a horrible weather pattern.  It is so hard to describe how things will miss us over and over again, and that is my job.  And, this of course fits this years LRC perfectly.  The same pattern has actually produced similar results near KC since it began with very few exceptions. Hey, we are just three months away from a new LRC.  Right now, the anticyclone, or heat wave creating machine, is forecast to drift out west and by Wednesday it will be over Las Vegas, NV.  It will be sizzling out there.  The main jet stream, which is indicated by the dark blue line over central Canada, is way far north, but there is a strong negatively tilted system singing southeast over the plains as indicated by that black dashed line. This is directly related to a storm that dug southeast in January, and this system is heading southeast now.  This should produce some interesting thunderstorm set ups this week.

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One of the thunderstorm set ups is forecast by last nights GFS model to produce thunderstorms over KC Wednesday night.  Well, we know what is more likely going to happen, right?

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Have a great day. Here is a picture of last nights sunset with Sunny The Weather Dog.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  This picture is of an anvil at sunset. The anvil is really an “orphan” anvil, what was leftover by its now dissipated parent thunderstorm, and it provided the clouds for the beautiful “Sunny” sunset.

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Gary

Rain is Still Needed

Good Sunday bloggers,

Some locations received some great rain on Saturday, while others were left dry. So, basically this is the same old story. The drought was not dented, so more rain is needed. There are chances the next 5-7 days, but you can probably guess what the trend in the data is showing.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals from the last 48 hours. You can see the spotty nature of the rain. The big winners were north central Missouri and south Kansas City.

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When we look closer at the KC area you can see areas north of the river saw a trace to .25″ and south of the river received .50″ to 1.50″. Remember, these are radar estimated totals, so your rain gauge may read different. This is great, but clearly we need more rain. What is next?

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TODAY-TONIGHT: Today will see highs 90°-95° with the chance of an isolated T-Storm. A small disturbance will track south of our area tonight and it may generate a small cluster of thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be dry with lows in the low 70s.

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TUESDAY: This will be a comfortable day with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. The humidity will be a bit lower as well.

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WEDNESDAY: The cooler weather is nice, but rain is needed. Well, here we go again. The data is trending towards Wednesday-Thursday thunderstorms to be located across Nebraska and Iowa. It looked like we would be involved with this rain with highs in the 70s and 80s. If this is right, we will be in the 80s to low 90s as the thunderstorms stay north. Now, we still have to watch this as it could track farther south and/or we could see a southern scattered extension of the rain. As is, we do get a southern scattered extension.

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THURSDAY: The thunderstorms track from Nebraska and Iowa to eastern Missouri, basically going around eastern Kansas and western Missouri. It will be nice when this pattern ends. Hopefully, this event will step out of the box, but the trend is not our friend.

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FRIDAY: There is a new chance of thunderstorms showing up. But, once again it is suspect and will not cover all locations. We shall see how this trends the next few days.

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There is one good thing about the weather this week. It will not be as hot as last week with highs in the 80s to low 90s.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

The Heat Wave Breaks Today!

Good Saturday bloggers,

The third heat wave of the season has ended. July 11-13, 2018 was the hottest three day stretch since July 24-26, 2012. Also, the 5 year 100° streak ended as well. So, today with highs mostly in the 80s it will feel much better. What would be even better is if we could end the drought. There will be areas of heavy downpours today, but it will not be nearly enough or widespread enough to even dent the drought. It is just nice to see cooler temperatures and some rain.

Before we get to the forecast, here are the latest 2018 rainfall totals around the area.

KC is nearly 7″ below average.

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Olathe is 11″ below average.

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St. Joseph is about 9″ below average and this does not include the 0.65″ they received early Saturday.

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Lawrence, KS is about one foot below average.

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Needless to say, we need rain. There is a system today that will bring some locations nice downpours.

There was a well defined twist of light rain early Saturday located between Wichita and Emporia. This system is tracking northeast at about 20 mph. So, it will be in KC between noon and 1 PM. New showers and thunderstorms will form with this system after 10 AM, so this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

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Here is the data from our in house model for 3 PM Saturday. This is a sight for sore eyes. There are heavy downpours, centered on KC. Temperatures are in the 70s where it is raining. Now, before we all get excited, this area of downpours could end up just about anywhere. So, if your yard or farm is in the rain on this data, it is not a slam dunk that you will see great rain. It is going to depend on the track of the small storm system. “Small” is the keyword, because, it will not be able to bring decent rain to all locations. Some locations will see 1″ to 2″ of rain, while others receive a few drops or nothing.

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The system will exit 6-8 PM, taking the downpours away. It will end up being a nice evening with temperatures mostly in the 70s. So, if you are headed to the Kenny Chesney concert there will be a chance of downpours, mostly before 7 PM, then it will be nice.

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If you miss the rain today, the next decent chance will be Wednesday-Thursday. Sunday will heat back up to the low 90s, but a cold front Monday will take us back to the 80s and the heat will stay away until Friday or Saturday.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

It Finally Reached 100 Degrees At KCI Airport

Good morning bloggers,

The last time it reached 100° was on September 8, 2013. The long streak ended on Thursday, and it may reach 100 again today.

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Downtown KC soared to 103° and Lawrence, KS got up to 104°.

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Now, we can put this long streak to rest and concentrate on the rain chances.  The drought monitor was updated yesterday by the Climate Prediction Center, and you can see that the drought is strengthening over our local area near KC:

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The red areas show Extreme Drought  What is just incredible is that Omaha, to the northwest of KC, and St. Louis, to the east of KC, are not considered in any drought conditions at all. St. Louis has had nearly 25 inches of rain this year compared to under 10 inches of rain near Lawrence, KS.

Rainfall Forecast From The European Model Ending Monday Evening:

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The set ups for thunderstorms are again atypical, and difficult to explain.  There are fronts, weak upper level disturbances, a stronger storm around mid-week, and thunderstorms will develop.  As you can see above, the rainfall forecast from the European Model, and other models are all over the place, shows around an inch of rain over the next four days, ending Monday.  Confidence is still a bit shaky, so let’s see how it sets up. There may be a few isolated thunderstorms again today.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny this morning with some big cumulus clouds building this afternoon.  There is a 5% chance of a thunderstorm later this afternoon.  High: 100°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm. High: 93°

Thank your or spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click on the blog over on the Weather2020 site and read the comments from the bloggers. We have been having some great weather discussions as we share in this weather experience. Have a great day. It is FRIDAY!

Gary

It Came Close To 100 Degrees Yesterday

Good morning bloggers,

Today may be the day that KCI Airport finally ends an almost five-year streak of below 100 degrees.  We will look into the pattern which has been a difficult topic to explain and describe as we have suggested in this blog many times in this pattern.  Discussing KC weather is a challenge in some summers as the weather can be the same from day to day in boring patterns. This pattern is just so difficult to describe, and it has been a theme from last October all the way through the fall, winter, spring, and now summer.  It is this years LRC that is leaving us in this challenging place to do this, and I will be welcoming the new pattern with open arms when it arrives in less than three months.  For now, it is more of the same, but at least some chance of rain is showing up.

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Yesterday was almost the day. The temperature at KCI Airport jumped to 99 degrees. The streak continues as we make another run at 100 degrees today, and maybe Friday.  Here is the 7-day forecast as I showed it on 41 Action News last night:

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Rainfall forecast through Sunday morning from the NAM model:

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If you look closely at the KC region, we have anywhere from less than 0.10″ to as much as 3″ of rain on some of the models by Sunday morning.  A series of disturbances, some connection to the monsoon out west, and a couple of cold fronts are combining to bring us some of these rain chances.  We will look into the chances a bit more in-depth in tomorrow mornings blogs, and on 41 Action News and KSHB.com today and tonight.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation.  Have a great day.

Gary

Some Chances For Rain Are Showing Up

Good afternoon bloggers,

The heat has built a bit stronger today, and it was 98 degrees at just after 3 PM this afternoon. We are just 2 degrees away from what hasn’t happened in almost five years at KCI Airport:

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There is an air quality Ozone Alert today, as the winds are light and pollution is settling near the surface which can be dangerous to sensitive individuals.  The weather pattern is fascinating and we are cycling into a part of the weather pattern that has produced in other LRC cycles this year.  This part of the pattern will move across the region between Saturday and next Wednesday, and I am finally adding in some rain chances back into the 7-day forecast:

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If there is a day that may finally reach 100 degrees at KCI Airport, it may be next Tuesday, but there are obviously other possible days that could do it.  A cold front will likely move through Tuesday night, and the best chance of rain may be on Wednesday of next week, but that is 7 days out, so confidence is a bit shaky.  There are other chances before mid-next week. The European model has trended wetter for this weekend, so I would like to see more support from other models, but there is some, and this is why I am increasing some rain chances.

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We will discuss more tomorrow. I have had a very busy day, thus the reason for the late blog. As, you know we try to put a blog out there every morning, and I am usually writing it from around 6:30 to 8 AM before I am on the radio. We had some big meetings and other things going on, and these may delay the blogs just a bit depending on my schedule.  I know most of you appreciate our Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2o20 and the LRC as we share in this weather experience. When the new pattern sets up next fall, maybe we will be blessed with a more exciting pattern. Have a great day.

Gary

Heat Wave #3 Has Started

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with the break of the heat wave. There is a good chance of a cold front moving across the area this weekend which will bring some nice relief in around 6 to 7 days.  Between now and then it will be quite hot and KCI Airport will make a run at its first 100 degree reading in almost five years.  The models also have some rain on them when that front approaches this weekend, but most of us know what has happened with this pattern since October.  Here are the rainfall totals in 2018:

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The models are coming in today with some wet weather close by, but also close by is the bulls-eye of dry weather over the next week as well.  Here is one of the models, the European Model rainfall output for the next ten days:

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There is an anticyclonic pattern to the precipitation.  The first chance of rain is still many days away.  Have a great day.  Join in the conversation over on the Weather2020 blog.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny and hot.  Highs 96° – 99°
  • Tonight:  Clear and warm. Low:  75°
  • Wednesday: Sunny and very hot. KCI will make a run at 100 degrees.  Highs:  97° to 101°

Gary

Heat Wave #3 Is About To Begin & Hurricane Season

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City is about to have its 3rd heat wave of the season:

  • Heat Wave #1:  96° on June 14th, 95° on June 15th – June 17th
  • Heat Wave #2:  99° on June 28, 97° on June 29th, and 96° on June 30th
  • Heat Wave #3:  Begins This Week and it will approach 100 degrees, a number that has not been officially reached at KCI Airport in almost 5 years

And, it is getting drier and drier.  Based on the early knowledge of this pattern, I thought there was a chance of a major drought expanding over the plains and it was in my forecasts to monitor that was presented in January.  When I presented blogging and the LRC at the American Meteorological Society’s conference on January 9th, I shared this graphic:

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It is still uncertain how hurricane season will play out, but it has started out active.  The average date for the third named storm of the season is August 13th, and we have now had three named storms already.  The winter storm did arrive around Presidents Day over the northeast, and the drought has expanded over KC. So, the only forecast yet to show signs of verifying will likely happen around the first of September, the bold hurricane forecast we made months ago.

Tropical Storm Chris will become a hurricane today:

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Chris will not threaten the United States as it stays offshore until it clips parts of Canada as a subtropical storm.   Back here in KC, it is dry, and the sky is blue. Here is Sunny The Weather Dog showing the blue sky this morning.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  There is no chance of thunderstorms in sight at the moment for the KC metro area.  We will continue this discussion on the blog at Weather2020.com, and on 41 Action News tonight.

Gary

The Heat Returns, The Rain Does Not

Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope you had a chance to take in the morning lows in the 50s and low 60s, because the heat and humidity is on our doorstep. The next 5-7 days will have no shortage of heat, but a major shortage of rain as the same old pattern continues to cycle.

Let’s go through the week ahead and search for rain.

MONDAY: We will have another comfortable start with lows in the 60s, perhaps a few upper 50s. Highs will reach the low 90s as we track a cold front to the north and westward moving disturbance to the south.

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TUESDAY: The front to the north will bring thunderstorms east of the Mississippi river with a 2% chance around here. The disturbance to the south will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The front and disturbance are both missing us as we stay mostly dry with highs 90°-95°.

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WEDNESDAY: Here is our Powercast radar over the drought monitor. You can see the drought extends from far southeast Iowa to the southwest USA. Nebraska and the rest of Iowa are experiencing a whole different summer as they get regular, widespread rain and cooler temperatures. There is not much rain anywhere on this day. We will see highs in the 90s as our third heat wave of the summer begins.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: There will be many thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa. A few may sneak into northern Missouri, especially the left overs. We will be mostly dry with highs in the 90s. If an outflow boundary can get down here, perhaps we will be cooler by a few degrees.

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SATURDAY-SUNDAY: The fronts reorganize so that numerous rain and thunderstorms will occur from the Great Lakes to northern Plains. We will sit hot and dry with highs in the 90s. A cold front will try to get down here next Sunday night. This is our next legitimate chance of thunderstorms.

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So, the drought may not expand, but it will likely intensify in place. Eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri are the locations that are in this drought until further notice.

Have a great week and stay cool.

Jeff Penner

Wonderful Weekend Weather

Good Saturday bloggers,

The good news is that drier air is moving in from the east as a surface high pressure is located over the Great Lakes. So, we are in for some great weather this weekend. The bad news is that there is no rain in the forecast. If we can’t get rain, at least it will feel better. Now, the heat and humidity return Monday and there is little to no chance of rain the next 5-7 days. That being said, there is a small rain chance window at the end of next week into next weekend.

The wind is coming in from the east as a surface high pressure is located over the Great Lakes. Lows this morning in Madison, WI were 50° with 58° in Kirksville, MO. This is a sign of drier air allowing temperatures to drop. This air will be over our area Sunday morning as we see lows 55°-60°, refreshing!

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SUNDAY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST: This will feel great with lows in the mid 50s across central Missouri and upper 50s to around 60° in western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Sunday will warm up back to the mid and upper 80s with the humidity still in check.

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EARLY NEXT WEEK: The heat and humidity will quickly return Monday as the anticyclone (heat wave creating machine) grows and covers much of the country. The main jet stream will be located across the USA-Canadian border and this is where periods of bigger and more organized thunderstorms will be found next week. There will be daily scattered downpours across the southeast USA to eastern Texas as easterly tropical waves move along the southern edge of the anticyclone.

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END OF NEXT WEEK: The anticyclone shifts west a bit and the jet stream sags south a bit. This will open the door for the chance of thunderstorms, but we are leaving them out of the forecast for the moment.

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SUMMARY: The best chance of bigger and more organized thunderstorms will be across the northern Plains and upper Midwest where the jet stream is located. There will be daily scattered downpours from the southeast USA to eastern Texas as easterly tropical waves track along the south edge of the upper level high. One set of computer data has decent thunderstorm chances here next Thursday-Sunday. We are going to be skeptical at this moment as we know what happens to rain chances that look good 5-7 days out. As we get closer, the chance of rain either vanishes or becomes a spotty event. I hope we can sing a different tune in the next few days.

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Have a great weekend and enjoy the heat and humidity reprieve.

Jeff Penner