Good Monday night bloggers,
Our five day storm is over. There has been 2″-5″ of rain across the area from this storm. This is on top of a wet storm around November 17th. This has made for a rather wet last 2 weeks of November. This fall has been crazy. First, it was very dry, does anybody remember that?
September 11 to November 15 most locations had under 2″ of rain which was about 5″ below average for that period. We got flung into a moderate drought and every time the wind below we had a high fire danger. Boy, did that change in a hurry.
Since November 16th, KCI has received 4.25″ of rain, with locations south of the river seeing nearly 7″ of rain. This has pretty much wiped out the rainfall deficit from earlier in the fall.
Now lets get into what is next.
TUESDAY MORNING: The storm system will be heading towards the Great Lakes. We will be in the dry slot of the storm, which means drier air and sunshine. It will be a breezy day with highs in the low 40s. The lows will be near 30°. Most of the surfaces will be dried out by morning, before much black ice could form. Some left over standing water may see some ice formation, so there may be a few black ice patches.
TUESDAY: It will be a mostly sunny day with highs in the low 40s. There will be a west to southwest breeze at 15-25 mph.
WEDNESDAY: The low clouds will return for a day as the leftover back lash clouds of the storm rotate back south over us. So, Wednesday will be back to mostly cloudy with highs in the 30s. You can see by 7 PM Wednesday, below, we are experiencing the last clouds of the system. Thursday through Saturday will be dry with abundant sunshine and highs warming from the 40s to low/mid 50s. This is pretty nice for early December. The next system is possible Sunday into Monday. Right now, it looks moisture starved, so we will see more clouds and perhaps a few rain showers.
Have a great week.
Share on Facebook
If this isn’t the kind of weather that makes you want to eat a 5th helping of turkey and potatoes, I don’t know what is!
Wow. Cloudy, cold, wet… it’s the perfect recipe for being comfy and enjoying the holiday. Hopefully yours was a good one. Now, that said, I know some have to travel. It may not be the easiest tonight into Monday! I made it back into KC late Saturday night, just missing out on the freezing rain and ice. Thankfully. I know others were not as fortunate.
Let’s look at the rainfall reports as of this evening (updated at 11:00pm).
As usual, your backyard reading will vary.
Imagine what it would look like if the temperatures had been cold enough for snow. Using a basic 10:1 ratio, it’d be 3.50″ of snow in KC, 5.70″ of snow in Olathe, over 6″ in Lee’s Summit and so on. And that would be just since midnight! Taking into account the last few days, we could have had a serious snowstorm on our hands (over 20 inches!). As you can imagine, that would make a weekend snow forecast tough to pin down. Then again, snow in general is the hardest thing we have to predict for this very reason! Just a few tenths of moisture can turn to inches of difference when it comes to snow amounts. But, that’s another blog for another day…
Rainfall totals for KC since Thanksgiving look like this:
A snapshot of the radar shows the rain firmly over our area.
And there is more to come as the night goes on. Surprised? Hopefully not. More moisture will stream up out of the Southwest, once again giving us a decent drink.
The latest guidance says this is how the radar will look by morning:
We could see another half inch to about 3/4 of an inch of rainfall between 7pm tonight and 7pm tomorrow:
There is a chance for snow in parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. If you are doing any traveling that direction, be mindful.
The snowfall amounts could be anywhere from a trace to just over 4″ for some areas.
A small band of ice may be possible too. Various winter alerts are already in place, but those do not include the KC area.
As you head back home from the holiday weekend, be sure to check road conditions and stay alert with any changing weather. It could be a little hazardous for those going to the North and West of Kansas City over the next 24 hours.
Those looking for sunshine and warmer days, they are coming. This system should finally move out of the area by Monday night and we’ll get some sunshine back on Tuesday. Then, by the middle to later part of the week, we’ll actually go above average for high temperatures.
Right now, the guidance is suggesting highs in the low to middle 50s. Considering the average for KC right now is 46°, that will be a nice warm up.
Meanwhile, we have to deal with all the rain tonight, and the readings just a hair or two above freezing, there may still be a few slick spots that develop. I encourage you to travel safely if you head out.
The rain will likely cause some problems for Monday morning. Give yourself a little extra time as you hit the roads.
We will continue to keep you updated on things if/when they change. Once again, here’s to a happy holiday weekend!
Share on Facebook
Good Sunday bloggers,
The storm that started on Thanksgiving is still rolling along. We have had a large, anchor upper low, stuck over the Rockies. It has been pulling up copious amounts of moisture from the El Nino warmed waters of the south Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. This plume of moisture is flowing all the way into the north Atlantic! This plume contains countless disturbances. Each time one moves by, rain areas increase. The main storm will be finally on the move, and it will track across the Plains into the Great Lakes the next 48-72 hours. This will put an end to the rain in our area Tuesday.
TODAY: This is another big travel day as people are headed back home after the holiday weekend. The amount of winter weather across the middle of the country will be low today with perhaps some light ice/snow near and north of I-80 in Nebraska. Also, snow will begin to increase in Denver by the end of the day. Otherwise it is clouds and rain for travelers. The heaviest rain with flooding will be occurring across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas to Tennessee.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Waves of rain will continue as temperatures stay in the mid 30s. So, at least we will not see any more ice.
MONDAY AM RUSH HOUR: It is going to be a cold and wet morning for commuters headed to work and kids headed to school.
MONDAY: The main storm heads out into the middle of the country. The center will track along I-80. So, this means the snow will occur across Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. Some of the snow will be heavy with amounts 2″-8″. The clearing line will be marching across Kansas Monday, so that by Tuesday we will see the sun!
RAINFALL: It has been a tale of two falls. September, officially, saw 5.73″ of rain, but this is misleading. 4.28″ of that amount fell on September 10th and at KCI. Most other locations saw 1″-2″ of rain. Then, after September 10th it was quite dry until November 15th with 1.70″ occurring during that time period. We were about 4-5″ below average for that period of time. Then, since the middle of November it has been raining seemingly non stop and we have seen between 3″ and 6″ of rain.
RAINFALL DATA: It was getting dry around here by November 15th with abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions forming. We were seeing Red Flag Warnings, high fire danger, every time the wind blew. Well, that is thankfully over as the rains came.
After this storm it looks dry and mild as we start December. The next storm is possible in 7-10 days.
Have a great week and stay dry.
Share on Facebook
Good Saturday bloggers,
This storm continues to affect our area and will do so until Tuesday. This morning we had yet another round of rain and freezing rain showers as temperatures sit just below 32°. Most surfaces are wet, but slick spots are possible on decks, overpasses and some untreated non-elevated surfaces, so be cautious. Temperatures will rise above 32° this afternoon, ending the chance of slick spots.
We now turn our attention to what is next as the main storm approaches and will affect us Sunday and Monday. Let’s go through the forecast.
NOON SATURDAY: It will be mostly dry, but some drizzle, mist and a few showers will be possible. Temperatures will hit the magical 32°.
4-5 PM SATURDAY: A new round of showers will move through as yet another disturbance moves in from the southwest. Temperatures will be just above freezing, so surfaces will be wet and the trees will be dropping pieces of ice.
SUNDAY MORNING: More scattered showers will be likely with temperatures just above freezing, so we do not expect any freezing tonight.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: More widespread rain, heavy at times, will cross all areas as the main storm ejects out of the Rockies. Temperatures will be 35-40 for most areas, so no icing is expected.
MONDAY: The winter part of the storm will cross I-80 and I-90 where a snowstorm will be possible. There is a chance for a southward shift. If this happens, northwest MO could see a change to snow. We will keep an eye on this.
RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY: This is crazy. We average 2.15″ for the whole month of November. We saw 2-3″ of rain on Thanksgiving, the wettest one ever. We had a wet storm around November 17th as well. Now, it looks like we will have more heavy downpours Sunday into Monday. This could put our November rainfall totals between 5″ and 6″, 200-300% of average!
Have a great rest of your holiday weekend and stay safe and dry.
Share on Facebook
Good Evening Bloggers,
What a 24 hours for us here at KSHB. We are proud of the Plaza Lighting show that had it’s highest rating ever, likely due to the fact it was raining so hard that most people stayed at home. Happy Holidays everyone! Take a look at how much rain fell, mostly on Thanksgiving Day:
This is a 5-day storm as I am going in-depth on the Weather202o blog. The main storm comes out on Sunday night and Monday. We may have another heavy rain event in KC as it approaches. It would snow, if it would just track farther south, and this is something we are paying very close attention to. Here are the graphics. The current Freezing Rain Advisory will likely expire Saturday as temperatures rise above freezing and then likely stay there Saturday night. There has been some minor icing, and fortunately not on the roads. There have been a few slick spots, so watch out for the decks, driveways and other elevated surfaces. Some bridges and overpasses may have icy spots on Saturday morning, and these sometimes can be the worst situations. Hopefully we don’t have any problems in the morning. Jeff Penner will be tracking this developing storm and updating the blog soon.
This model just doesn’t have much until late Sunday into Monday. Then, over an inch of rain falls again, with the rain/snow line getting rather close. This storm would just need to track a bit farther south.
Have a great and safe holiday weekend. Check back in later today for the updated blog!
Share on Facebook
Happy Thanksgiving bloggers,
I hope you had a great holiday. Wow! What a rare Thanksgiving as we have seen historic rainfall. It has never rained more than 1″ on this holiday and today we have seen 1″-2″ with more falling as I write this.
Now, will we see icy conditions on Friday. At this time, we do not feel this is going to be a huge issue as the freeze line will settle near I-35 by morning. So, areas to the east of I-35 will be mostly wet with areas to the west seeing some slick spots, especially decks and overpasses. Now this being said we have to watch the temperatures closely as every degree will make a difference.
10 PM TEMPS: As you can see only northwest MO was seeing temps below 32, but the precip is letting up in those areas. But, there will be slick issues in these locations. Further south in KC temps are above freezing and it is just wet.
10 PM RADAR: The heavy band of precipitation will end by 2-4 AM. We will be watching for a new surge of precip from the south around 6-8 AM. Some models have it, other do not.
4 AM FRIDAY: This model has the heaviest precip to the east, but still new precip in the area. Also, it has the rain/freezing rain line neat St. Joseph. This is likely correct.
3 PM FRIDAY: The precip is shifting south and out with the rain/freezing rain line just northwest of KC.
9 PM FRIDAY: By this time, the precip is over.
So, all of this being said we will be watching for two main issues.
1. How far south does the freeze line get?
2. Will there be a new surge of rain after 5-6 AM?
have a happy rest of your Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
Share on Facebook
Happy Thanksgiving Bloggers,
The National Weather Service has issued many watches, advisories, and warnings:
In our area they have Winter Storm Warnings in the pink color, and the lighter purple color is a Freezing Rain Advisory. There are still many questions that have yet to be answered and we will learn more as we move through today. How much cold air will surge south and will the rain end before any significant icing develops. Well, that is for round one. There is a round two, three, and four that we still must pay close attention to.
A storm that will likely end up producing the wettest Thanksgiving Day in Kansas City’s 126 years of weather records is arriving soon. We are forecasting 1 to 2 inches of rain as a slow moving front moves through our viewing area between 11 AM and 9 PM. This storm system is hanging back to the west and cutting off. I am doing an extensive blog on the Weather2020 site describing this weather pattern. Take a look at the GFS rainfall forecast ending on Monday:
That is a bulls-eye of more than 10 inches near the Red River. KC is near the 3 inch level, and most of that is forecast to fall on Thanksgiving Day. It has never rained an inch or more on any Thanksgiving Day since records began in the late 1880s. Wow! That is one heck of a record. And, then look at what is forecast to happen on Friday:
The red indicates sleet (frozen rain). The yellow indicates freezing rain, which is liquid rain that freezes on contact. This is one of many disturbances rotating around the main upper low. We will go over the details on 41 Action News. Have a great Thanksgiving. We hope to see you at the Plaza Lighting, or you can watch our special. It may be fun to watch us getting wet. It is going to be a challenge.
Weather timeline for KC:
- Now to 2 PM: Rain developing, but dry for much of the early morning hours. Temperatures in the lower 60s.e
- 2 PM-6 PM: Rain increasing and becoming heavy at times. Temperatures dropping into the 40s
- 6 PM- Midnight: Rain, heavy at times, a chance of thunderstorms with temperatures dropping to 35 degrees
- Midnight – 6 AM: Rain ending and temperatures dropping to near 32 degrees. Some minor icing of raised surfaces is possible.
- 6 AM – Noon Friday: An increasing chance of light freezing rain, sleet, or rain. Temperatures near 32 degrees. One or two degrees colder will create some problems, one or two degrees warmer it would just be wet
Have a great Thanksgiving Day. We will be updating our web weather forecast often today. And, our newscasts are on at 4 and 5 PM. The Plaza Lighting Special begins at 6 and right now it appears that we will get wet.
Share on Facebook
Good Morning Bloggers!
What a forecast for Thanksgiving right? We could break records this Thanksgiving with the amount of rain we could see just on Thursday. The last time it even rained on Thanksgiving was more than 25 years ago. It depends on who you ask if they would just rather the cold temperatures be in place and we have a blizzard.
So let’s start with today and the chance of rain. Most of us will be mainly dry, but cloudy. A few showers may develop in NE Kansas and this will be mainly at lunch time and through the evening. The KC Metro may see some drizzle develop later this afternoon and a few showers this evening, but if you need to get the leaves picked up do it early.
Now Thanksgiving is setting up to be a day you stay in and eat so much you pass out. If you plan on going to the Plaza Lighting then you may want to just watch it on TV. I had plans to go, but the chance for heavy rain starts around lunch time and will be with us through 10 pm before potentially moving southeast.
Above is a screen shot from our powercast at the start of the Plaza Lighting and the yellow is a heavy rain. We could see 1-2″ widespread just on Thursday alone. We could see spots 2-4″ depending on where some of the heavier bands set up Thursday afternoon. Our rainfall forecast is:
Thursday night is tricky and it will really depend on how fast the moisture moves out with the cold front. If the moisture lags behind the front then we could see a small window of freezing rain. If this does happen it would be very light, but since many people will be on the roads then we need to plan for the worst. Here is a breakdown of roads and the hazards we could see:
This is the morning update and not much has changed since Gary’s post yesterday. We will have another update later tonight. I hope you all have a fantastic holiday and stay safe.
Share on Facebook
Good evening or early Wednesday morning bloggers,
Kansas City’s wettest Thanksgiving Day in 126 years of record keeping was 0.88″ in 1906. It appears that record will be broken:
A wet storm is heading towards KC, and the upper level storm that is creating the conditions for this historic Thanksgiving rain event will hang back and cause forecast problems for the rest of the holiday weekend as well.
This set up is rather unusual for this time of the year. A very slow moving front will be timed to be near KC around 6 PM on Thanksgiving night. This is causing me to pull my hair out, but of course I don’t have any hair to pull. If the front is a couple hours slower, then it could be in the lower 60s for the Plaza Lighting. If it is a few hours faster, then it’s going to be in the the 30s with heavy rain. This could and will likely look a bit different in the next few model runs, and we will keep you updated on 41 Action News.
Here is the map valid around 7 PM Thursday evening:
The storm that is causing this gets cut-off over the southwestern United States and a series of disturbances will continue to affect us over the holiday weekend. One of these will head up our way on Friday, and temperatures will likely be near 32 degrees.
Watch Kalee and Nicole beginning at 4:30 AM Wednesday for the latest information.
Share on Facebook
Good late evening or early morning bloggers,
We are destined to have a wet Thanksgiving Day and Night. The problem is that we are hosting the 86th Kansas City Plaza Lighting on Thursday evening from 6 to 7 PM, and we are broadcasting out there live from 4 to 7 PM. What is the chance of rain? 100%! But, does that mean it won’t lighten up for those three hours? It could also be a line of thunderstorms? What would cancel the Plaza Lighting? Lightning! Hopefully it doesn’t become the Plaza “lightning” instead of the Plaza Lighting. We will know a lot more by Wednesday, but for now, take a look:
This map above shows one solution with Kansas City still in the warmer air at 1:30 PM Thanksgiving Day. That zone from blue to yellow is called a baroclinic zone, or a frontal zone. Look at what is forecast to develop:
This solution is the NAM model and it keeps the front just northwest of Kansas City through 6 PM Thursday. And, there is a lot of rain forecast by most of the models. This could be the wettest Thanksgiving Day in KC history.
Have a great evening or early morning. We will get you updated as this storm approaches.
Share on Facebook