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We Need a Drink of Water

Good evening,

The good news is that we are having some great summer weather.  The bad news is that it is drying out and we could use a good drink of water.  Now, this month has been wetter that average, but officially it has not rained measurably since July 13th.

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Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday night, but it is not a sure thing.  Here is the set up.  A cold front will be approaching from the northwest and Wednesday afternoon there will be a a chance of thunderstorms forming along this front in Nebraska.  The flow aloft is from northwest to southeast, so if these thunderstorms can get their act together, they could move in tomorrow night.  The chance of rain is 40-50% at this time tomorrow night.

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THURSDAY-SUNDAY: We will be in a pattern where we will have heat to the west and cooler air to the east as the flow aloft remains from the northwest.  This flow will have many disturbances in it and any one of these could initiate thunderstorms.  So, we have a complex forecast this period as there will be a chance of thunderstorms each day, but there is no guarantee they will all come through our area.  It is hard to track these chances more than 12-24 hours in advance, so we will have to take the forecast one day at a time and hope we see at least one good soaking.  Also, these rains are likely not all day events, but again, timing is tough more than 12-24 hours in advance.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Great Summer Weather

Good evening,

A cold front came through last night and the main thunderstorm activity stayed just southwest of KC.  So, we are left needing rain in some areas, but at least we got rid of the heat and high humidity.  Tuesday and Wednesday are looking great with highs in the 80s.

This is the forecast map for Tuesday, but it holds for Wednesday as well.  Wednesday may see a few more clouds and just a slight rain chance..  High pressure over Iowa is bringing us a more comfortable northeast wind.

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This is the upper level pattern we had last week.  The heat wave creating machine was over the middle of the USA.  Now, we did not have an official heat wave as we did not have three straight days of 95° or higher.  However, the humidity was out of control and this made it feel like a legitimate heat wave.

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This is the pattern we are going to be in this week.  We return to a northwest flow which will put us in the zone of thunderstorm chances, especially Thursday through Saturday.  We will have to take the individual rain chances one day at a time.  Hopefully, we will get at least one good event.

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FRIDAY: This is when we have our next decent rain chance as a stronger disturbance comes in from the northwest and a warm front sets up to our southwest.  We are going 40% chance at this time.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

You can breathe again

After a stuffy and hot few days, we finally get a chance to breathe. Figuratively and literally! Dew point have been hanging around in the mid to upper 70s for days. Those will drop to the low to mid 60s for Monday & Tuesday. Plus, rain chances return starting tonight. But not everyone, everywhere is going to get the rain. We go over the details of what to expect this week. And, a look at how long the break from the heat will last!

Hope you have a great week. Remember, keep checking our TV forecasts for the latest updates.
-JD

Last couple days of the heat for a while

We’ve been stuck in the 90s for a few days, with heat index values doing Olympic-style hurdles over 100°. Needless to say, it’s been humid! Because of the high dew points, the air temperatures never hit 100° in KC. What some failed to realize this week is that with dew points in the mid to upper 70s(and it being late July), there is just not enough time in the day to get us cooking. Moreover, the slightest of cloud cover will reduce any chance there may have been. In the video blog, we dive more into this and why we never hit 100°. Also in the video: we look to make a return to the daily thunderstorm chances next week. Could this month end up in the top 5 wettest Julys of all time? Sit back and take a look!

Try not to sweat too much for the rest of the weekend. And, as always, GO ROYALS!
-JD

The Heat Is On

Good Wednesday,

The Excessive Heat Warning is now rather expansive, but it is mostly due to the humidity and not the heat.  There is so much moisture in the ground due to the wet last three weeks.  The grass, trees, corn and soybeans are evapotranspirating quite a bit, throwing much water into the air.  When, there is a lot of water in the air, it is hard for the air to warm up.  So temperatures are struggling to 95°, but the humidity is making heat indexes 105°-115°..

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WEDNESDAY DEW POINTS: Look at the huge area of dew points around 75° or higher.  This is going to make it hard for us to hit 100° unless we can mix out this thick moisture.   Saturday has the best chance to hit 100° out ahead of a cold front.

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The upper level high is growing over the middle of the USA and will reach its peak size Friday.  The anticyclone will break down over the weekend as a front heads south.  This front may link up with some monsoon moisture early next week, increasing the chance we could see some heavy rain.

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Stay cool.

Jeff

Anticyclone Grows

Good Tuesday,

The upper level high we have been talking about is here and beginning to grow.  Around the edge of the upper level high (anticyclone) you often have clusters of thunderstorms and today is no exception.

There is quite an area of thunderstorms tracking across southern Iowa with some severe weather and flash flooding.  This would have been closer to KC, but the upper high became just a bit too big.  Now, there are thunderstorms as close as Cameron.  This upper high will continue to grow reaching it’s biggest size on Thursday.

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HEAT WARNINGs AND ADVISORIES: The advisories for heat extend from the Canadian border to almost the Gulf coast as the “heat wave creating machine” grows.  So, how long will this last?  Is this the beginning of a long hot and dry stretch?

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SUNDAY: The answer to the above questions is no as the anticyclone will shrink and retreat to the south over the weekend.  This will allow a cold front to slip in by Sunday, which will increase the chance of the thunderstorms.  This front looks to be the first of two or three as we head into August.

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Now, until we get relief, and if you are outside doing any kind of activity, you need to drink plenty of water.  We always say this, but how much water should you drink?  The answer is 16-32 ounces per hour as it is amazing how much water you can lose in weather like this.  Our bodies are 60% water, so it is important to keep yourself hydrated.

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Have a good night and rest of your week.

Jeff

Excessive Heat Around the Corner

Good Monday,

We are just about to go in to the hottest stretch of weather this summer.  It begins on Wednesday as today and Tuesday are staying cooler due to clouds and nearby rain.

This was the situation for today.  There has been rain and thunderstorms tracking across southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri for much of Sunday night into Monday.  This activity sent an outflow boundary south into our area.  This is the rain cooled air heading south, so it is like a mini cold front.  This has kept areas north of the river to highs around 90° and northern Missouri in the rain has seen temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  There is a decent chance of something similar to happen on Tuesday.

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Then, on Wednesday the heat wave really begins.  The National Weather Service has already issued an Excessive Heat Warning through Friday.  Again, we may catch a break on Tuesday with another outflow boundary or areas of clouds from nearby rain and thunderstorms.  The best chance of rain Tuesday is once again across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Missouri.  Remember, to drink plenty of non-alcoholic beverages, and wear loose fitting, light colored clothing.

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WEDNESDAY: The thunderstorm chances shift east allowing the furnace door to be open as the winds pick up from the southwest and there is no help from outflow boundaries or clouds.  Highs will reach the mid to upper 90s.

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FRIDAY: Thursday will be in the upper 90s with a chance of seeing 100° for the first time since September 2013, but Friday has a better chance.  Highs may hover around 110° across Kansas and southern Nebraska!

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SATURDAY: So, how long will the heat last?  There are decent signs of a cold front arriving Saturday night or Sunday.  This will bring a chance of thunderstorms and drop our temperatures 5-10 degrees.  However, on Saturday, highs will climb to around 100° once again, ahead of the front.

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Have a great week and stay cool.

Jeff

Getting ready to sweat again

Overall, the last few weeks have not been too bad by July standards across the area. We’ve picked up plenty of rainfall–in most locales, but certainly not all–and the temperatures have been more below average than above average. Now, it’s time for true July to settle in. The hottest temperatures recorded at KCI this month was 94° back on the 5th. That’s our forecast high for Sunday. And by the end of next week, 94° might wind up sounding cool!

The latest video blog gives an idea of what to expect.

Remember how the heat can impact the body. So make sure you stay well hydrated and find some place that features cooler air. We will continue to keep you informed on any changes. And for those keeping track, it’s only 67 days until Fall! Wow.

Have a great weekend,
-JD

Hotter and Drier On The Way

Good Saturday,

We have had quite an active July pattern as the jet stream has been further south, well that is going to change for the next 1-2 weeks as the anticyclone, heat wave creating machine, builds in.  Let’s go through the forecast for the next few days.

Here is the pattern we have been in the last few weeks.  The jet stream has been further south, so the zone of thunderstorm chances has been located across the central part of the USA.  The anticyclone has been small and suppressed to the south.

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UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK: The jet stream retreats to Canada and the anticyclone grows and heads north.  So, we are in for some rather hot days with less rain chances.  Now, this being said, over the course of the next 10-14 days there will be a few fronts that slip into the area as the upper level high shifts west a bit.  So, we will have an occasional rain chance and a few cooler days.

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SUNDAY:  Tomorrow will see highs in the low to mid 90s, but we will be watching morning thunderstorms track along I-80.  There is a slight chance a few drift towards I-70, but the latest data keeps the rain north.  If we see more rain, then highs will be closer to 90°.

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MONDAY: There will be a front drifting south.  We will still see highs in the 90s.  This front will be somewhat inactive in our area as the atmosphere will be capped (warm air aloft).  But, this front may impact Tuesday.

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TUESDAY: The front will drift south and we should get on the cooler side for a day with highs around 90°.  There will also be a chance of mainly morning thunderstorms as a disturbance moves by along the front.  The high heat will be building out west, about to head in.

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WEDNESDAY: Here we go!  Highs will climb well into the 90s as the heat door is wide open and the front move east as a warm front.

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THURSDAY: We will make a run at 100° Thursday and Friday.  Highs may reach 110° in parts of western Kansas.

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So, get ready for the heat, but there will be small breaks every 2-4 days.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

 

Not Done with the Rain Chances

Good Wednesday evening,

The severe we had talked about for tonight, came through midday, so this evening will be dry.  The main cold front is still to the north and there are a few thunderstorms on this front.  So, later tonight, a few thunderstorms will be possible as this front moves south to the I-70 corridor.

The thunderstorms from the lunch hour are now in Illinois, they were moving east at 50 mph.  There is a thunderstorm near Omaha where the cold front is located.  The earlier activity has certainly stabilized the atmosphere, but later tonight as few showers and thunderstorms may occur with the front as it moves by.

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THURSDAY: This is another odd July weather day.  The front will be stalled across Oklahoma where highs will reach the 100s.  A disturbance will be moving across Kansas in northwest flow.  This disturbance will likely bring a new round of showers and thunderstorms.  The biggest part if it may gravitate to the south where the higher instability is located, but we may get in on the northeast edge of the event.  Or, we could be more in it.  So, we will have to watch it closely as it moves in during the day.  We said this would be an active week and we will need to take the forecast one day at a time as the computer models have been little help.

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The daily rain chances will end Sunday and then comes the heat for next week.

Have a great night.

Jeff