41 Action Weather Blog

Good morning bloggers,

A weak cold front moved through overnight and we continue to experience this amazing spring weather. The next front will be approaching Saturday night and this one will have some moisture to work with leading to a chance of thunderstorms.

Take a look at today’s tornado risk across the United States, and it likely is even lower tomorrow. This is from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).  There is just one very small area of New England with a low 2% chance that a tornado develops within 25 miles of any point. This quiet weather pattern will continue until later Friday or Saturday when moisture returns to the plains from the Gulf of Mexico and a risk increases to our west over the western plains by Saturday afternoon and evening.  It is the middle of May and we are now at the peak of severe weather season. The jet stream is beginning to shift farther south and next week should begin to show signs of more activity.  The part of the weather pattern that has been active with severe weather risks in this year’s LRC will be returning next week. Let’s see how it sets up. The computer models have a different solution every six hours. There has been no consistency with the models all year.  We will go into more details of the weekend chance of thunderstorms and any risk of severe weather on 41 Action News.

Breezy stopped by the station yesterday to see how Stormy had done at her school visit.  She rarely comes by and we had this photo opportunity and I thought I would share it with you.  Breezy is the bigger dog that I am holding:

Have a great Wednesday. Are you bored with this weather, or are you enjoying the calm spring?
Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

A rare May tropical storm has formed over the eastern Pacific Ocean 850 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Tropical Storm Aletta, is a minimal storm with 40 mph sustained winds near the center of this system.  This is a very rare early tropical storm and it should weaken and move out to sea in the Pacific.  Since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15:  Hurricane Alma in 1990 and an unnamed storm in 1996. Hurricane Season is right around the corner.

Yesterday had to be the most beautiful day of the year. There was practically no wind with a high in the upper 70s with low humidity.  A weak cold front will be moving through tonight and you can see it on the map I plotted that is valid at 7 PM:

The wind will shift to the southwest ahead of this front and with the rather low humidity levels for this time of the year we should see temperatures easily get up into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon.  Notice the high pressure area over Texas. Winds blow away from high pressure and towards low pressure and this high pressure area is helping cut-off the Gulf of Mexico keeping our humidity low for a while.

Later this week the jet stream will dip farther south down the west coast with a wave of energy moving across the United States bringing an increasing risk of severe weather to our north and west by later Saturday and a very slight risk near our area by Sunday as a front moves through. An even stronger jet stream with upper level energy diving farther south is forecast to develop by mid-next week as you can see below. This 500 mb forecast map is valid a week from tomorrow:

The weather pattern continues to cycle in this year’s LRC that set up last fall. The part of the weather pattern that has produced severe weather risks and significant severe weather in three other cycles in this year’s pattern is forecast to return during the next two weeks as June approaches. Severe weather season will fade away in about a month or so, and for storm chasers time is hasn’t run out yet, but there are just four to five more weeks before the average jet stream position shifts far to the north with an occasional dip during the summer months.  The map above shows the jet stream dipping south with a trough heading out into the plains. If this develops it will have to lead to two or three days with significant severe weather from the plains and then spreading off to the east into the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley later next week.

Severe weather outlook for the next ten days:

• No chance through Saturday
• A system approaches Saturday night into Sunday with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. We will be monitoring this first risk closely as it is just five days away.
• The jet stream gets stronger and dives farther south next week with a much stronger risk of severe weather expected

Have a great day! It will be warming up ahead of the weak front that will move through tonight.  Thanks for stopping by the Action Weather blog and let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

It is a beautiful Monday with a forecast high in the mid to upper 70s.  The winds are light and this weather pattern continues to be rather quiet.  The jet stream will begin dipping a bit farther south during the next ten days.  The pattern we are in right now would usually be a rather wet one with waves coming out of the western states and moving out into the plains like the one heading our way on Wednesday:

This first map, above, shows the main jet stream dipping a bit farther south over Oregon and a wave of energy moving through the four corners states. This wave will move out into the plains and weaken on Thursday.  It will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms over the high plains, but it looks dry here most of the week.  This type of flow would usually be wet at this time of the year, but the flow aloft is just a bit too weak. We will still have to watch and see if any areas of showers/thunderstorms get generated over the high plains and see if they track our way later in the week.  Another wave will be moving into the western states and tracking out into the plains by the weekend. This one may produce a set-up for some severe weather, but most likely well north of Kansas City as you can see on this next 500 mb forecast map below:

The jet stream will likely be strengthening near the west coast and shifting even farther south by sometime over the weekend.  Eventually these changes will impact our chance for some severe thunderstorms and almost certainly an increasing chance of more wide-spread rain and thunderstorms during the last week of this month.  Until then, we get to enjoy some great spring weather.

Have a great start to the week. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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Good Morning Bloggers!

Aside from a few morning sprinkles northwest of KC, a nice and calm Mother’s Day!

We’re going with a forecast free from rain for the next 7 days.  The upper level flow shows the jet stream position far north, over Canada.  The jet-stream commonly serves as the storm track, and its position stays north all week.  So the  storm chances remain very slim in KC for at least a week.

Sometime nature “finds a way” to rain.  As is the case in summertime when it’s hot and humid (mid 90s) for a week and the jetstream is far north like in the above picture.  Then comes a weak impulse during peak daytime heating…and one t-storms triggers somewhere in the plains.  It collapses, then releases outflow boundaries and a chain reaction of t-storms follow.

But our temperatures will peak in the upper 70s/low 80s, so I don’t even see that happening.  Bottom line…enjoy the tranquil May weather for the next week.  Maybe late next weekend/early next week we can have our next chance for storms…I’ll look at the new data tonight and possibly put it in the 10pm forecast!

Have a great day!

-GW

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Good Saturday morning,

A storm system is now tracking across the southern Plains as it breaks up into pieces.  On the north side of the system there is a weak front aloft and it is producing scattered showers from central Kansas to northwest Missouri.  The showers are currently stationary, but during the day the band may shift south a bit, so a few showers/sprinkles will be possible this afternoon, but most locations will be dry.  See MAP #1.

A surface high pressure will continue to drift south, making for a nice Mother’s Day.  There is a 10% chance for an isolated shower Sunday afternoon, but plans should not be cancelled.  See MAP #2.

Are there any major rain chances in the forecast?  The answer is no for at least 5-7 more days as the jet stream has retreated to a later June or July position across southern Canada.  This is how this whole year has gone.  We have been 1-2 months ahead.  In March it was like May!  Very odd.  See MAP #3.

MAP #1: 3 PM Saturday Afternoon

MAP #2: Mother’s Day Afternoon

MAP #3: Next week’s Jet Stream

Have a great day and Mother’s Day!

Jeff

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Good morning bloggers,

The chance of rain will be going up a bit this weekend with a slow moving front entering our viewing area later today.  I will go over the details below, but first let’s start with the severe weather that happened to our south with this slow moving storm moving out into the plains.

It was an active Thursday across south Texas. It is rare for tornado season to shift that far south in mid-May!  About ten tornadoes touched down in south Texas yesterday.  Weimar, TX was hit pretty hard with a tornado damaging a hospital and derailing 25 train cars of a freight train and injuring at least eight people in a high school parking lot.  This tornado touched down around 5:30 PM in Wiemar, a town of around 2,2o0 people 85 miles west of Houston.  The injured were working in a trailer preparing food for a fundraiser at Wiemar High School.  The injuries were likely rather minor. Most of the damage appeared to be minor.

So, south Texas had the severe weather with the main jet stream located way up near the USA/Canada border. An upper level storm dropped into northwestern Mexico in this very strange May weather pattern. And, yes it fits into this year’s LRC. This upper level storm will spread heavy rain with thunderstorms across Texas into Oklahoma this weekend. It will weaken as it drifts northeast. How will Kansas City be affected by this pattern?

Weekend forecast thoughts:

There is an upper level storm moving slowly into the southern plains states today and tonight.  And, with the main jet stream near the USA/Canada border, a storm system tracking to the north is dragging a weak cold front into our viewing area later this afternoon and evening.  How will these two features combine to affect our weekend weather?

The upper level storm will drift our way tonight into Saturday. How it holds together, because it is rather weak, will help decide whether we get organized precipitation into our viewing area or not.  The latest data has been trending a bit wetter for Saturday. We will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight. And, tonight at 10 PM we have a special segment on getting rid of mosquitos. Check out this video:  Mosquito

Meeting Al Roker this week had to be the high-lite of what has been a rather wild week. It started with the weak EF-0 tornadoes in Raymore and Olathe. I doubt we ever get another picture like this one from this camera.  Check out this picture from the Nicklaus Golf club camera:

And, then Al Roker came in for the Salvation Army Civic Luncheon on Wednesday. He did his broadcasts for the Today show from the J.C. Nichols Fountain. I videotaped him, I think you can call it that, from my iPad before the event began.  I recorded his message that we played on the Border Patrol, Sports Radio 810 WHB yesterday.  Here is the picture of that recording:

Have a great weekend!

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather in May has been rather quiet.  This is a very good thing, by the way…maybe not for tornado/storm chasers, however.  A cool & dry high pressure area is now over Missouri and the jet stream has retreated way up to the north.

This first map, on the left, shows the upper level flow at around 18,000 feet above us. This is the 500 mb flow and we look at this level to pick out upper level storm systems.  This forecast is valid Saturday night and it shows the main jet stream way up to the north across Canada. There are some weak upper level disturbances south of the main jet stream and we are monitoring these weak systems to see if they help produce some rain showers or thunderstorms this weekend around Kansas City. The chance of rain goes up to around 40% later Saturday afternoon or night.  We still have low confidence in anything more than a few showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. It does not appear to be a great chance of wide spread rain.

This second map, on the right, shows the forecast 500 mb flow valid at 1 AM next Wednesday (144 hour forecast). The jet stream is still forecast to be tracking across Canada with a strong storm system north of Seattle, WA.  I am quite surprised at how long the jet stream is forecast to stay this far north. As long as it stays up there our risk of any severe weather set-ups will be quite low with the main energy up there in Canada. Summer is just six weeks away and severe weather season usually shuts down by mid-June.  You can click on either of the maps for a larger view.

The upper level flow and jet stream will likely shift south eventually, within the next ten days or so.  But, for now it is a quiet month of May.

Have a great day. We are forecasting a high of 77 degrees today with a breeze increasing from the south later this afternoon.  Meeting Al Roker yesterday was great as he seems like a nice genuine person. He is back in New York today.  Here is a picture of me introducing him yesterday at the Salvation Army Civic Luncheon:

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

Al Roker was live on the Plaza this morning.  Temperatures dropped into the 40s and there was a May freeze across western Nebraska. Here is the 6 AM surface map:

High pressure is building over the central plains today and we will have some great weather.  A weak storm will be approaching us this weekend with increasing clouds and a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms. We will go over the details on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Here is a picture taken from our golf camera at the Nicklaus Golf Club in Overland Park.  On our time-lapse we can see the tornado rope out and fall apart, but the circulation came right over the golf course and was still rotating as it passed overhead. Wow!

Today is a very busy day as I am the Emcee of the Salvation Army’s Civic Luncheon.  Al Roker has been doing live weather from the Plaza this morning in front of the J.C. Nichols fountain. I will be introducing him today at the luncheon.

Gary

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Good morning,

Al Roker, from the Today Show, will be in Kansas City on Wednesday. I will be introducing him at the Salvation Army 2012 Civic Luncheon.  He will be doing his Today Show Weather hits live from the Plaza tomorrow morning and you can go down there and see him live from around 6 AM through 8 AM.

High pressure will build over the plains today and Wednesday providing some of the most spectacular May weather with low humidity and highs in the 70s.  Morning lows will dip into the 40s the next couple of nights.

The weather pattern is somewhat trying to block up a bit. A weak upper high and strong ridge aloft will be developing this week over the Pacific Northwest states. A blocking high will be strengthening just south of Greenland, and a summer-like and very weak upper high will be developing well to the south near Baja California.  This will place us in dry north flow aloft with very little chance of thunderstorms. Here is the 500 mb forecast map valid Sunday evening:

Last night at 10 PM on 41 Action News I showed this video of some spectacular lightning.  This is from SkyTracker and Tim Helleck, one of our photo jornalists, was the photographer. We slowed it down to show you the lightning and what really happens. When you see it flicker, that flickering is being caused by the lightning actually striking multiple times in the exact same spot. Check out the last lightning shot in slow motion. That bolt strikes 8 times.  This is the kind of lightning that certainly would be deadly if you got hit:  Lightning

Have a great Tuesday.

Gary

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Good morning bloggers,

Thunderstorms lined up twice over the south KC metro area on Sunday.  There were two possible tornadoes, but very little to no damage was reported from either one.  We caught this funnel cloud from Skytracker and we showed it form and then turn into a rope funnel and fall apart before it could touch down and cause damage.  Here are a couple of pictures from Olathe, KS. This first one was taken by Brandon Stafford:

The first supercell thunderstorm developed near Raymore, MO and produced a possible brief small tornado around 5:15 PM. And, the second one formed just southwest of Olathe and produced rather dramatic wall clouds and a funnel that may have briefly touched down. No damage has been reported.  The one in Olathe, that you can see in the pictures above, came within a few hundred feet of the ground and may have touched down briefly.  It was likely never going to be more than an EF-0 to EF-1 type of tornado, but it certainly was fascinating tracking it on radar and showing it develop, rope out, and fall apart live with Captain Greg Borden and SkyTracker.  We avoided the worst yesterday.  Here are some rainfall amounts.

Rainfall amounts:

• Overland Park/Olathe, KS (127th & Bond): 4.99″
• Overland Park, KS (143rd and Nall):  3.88″
• Olathe (Johnson County Executive Airport), KS:  2.31″
• Gardner (New Century Airport), KS:  1.61″
• Lee’s Summit, MO:  1.16″
• KCI Airport, MO:  0.40″
• St. Joseph (Rosecrans Memorial Airport), MO:  0.25″

Gary

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