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Rain, Arctic Cold….Snow?

Good Saturday,

The weather pattern is getting active as we are tracking 2-3 storm systems and an Arctic blast.  The first system is for tonight as it will bring a good chance of rain with temperatures around 40°.  A widespread .25″ to .40″ is likely which is good news as we need the rain.  The rain ends Sunday morning, giving way to some sun by afternoon.  Then check out the video below for an in depth look at the next systems and Arctic air.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Two Storm Systems! Any Snow?

Good Friday Night In The Big Town Bloggers,

There are two storm systems that will impact our area in the next five days.  And, then an Arctic front will move through with much colder air arriving. There are many of you out there wondering if we will see our first snowflakes, and I think we will on Wednesday with the second storm. The first storm will likely produce rain. It will begin Saturday evening. If it started earlier it would be below freezing, but it won’t start until after temperatures rise above freezing to near 40 degrees most of the night Saturday night.

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The map above shows the 28 degree air in place, but as you can see below, look at the midnight temperatures on Saturday night. It is still near 40 degrees insuring we won’t need any salt for this one.

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The much colder air arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. It appears as if it will be dry for the Chiefs game on NBC Thursday night.  But, wind chills will be in the teens. Bundle up and go Chiefs.

Gary

Maybe A Storm In One Week

Good Wednesday evening/Thursday morning bloggers,

Winter is still three weeks away and it is finally turning a bit colder.  The next week has some big changes showing up.  We have a great discussion going on over on my Weather2020.com site where we discuss this breakthrough technology.  I want to add in my thoughts on our Action Weather Blog here.  The LRC is coming into focus this week. Yesterday I suggested that this next weeks storm system fit the LRC, but that it would likely mean a faster, weaker, and farther north track. This is now showing up on the models, unfortunately for us snow enthusiasts.  The models have been all over the place. Just look at this example. Yesterday, the European model had an output of 28″ of snow near Kansas City for next Wednesday into Thursday. And, last night’s model, just two model runs later has this solution:

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This latest Euro model run doesn’t only not show the 20″ plus snowfall, but it has no snowfall at all over the area that it showed the huge snowstorm that got everyones attention yesterday.  Now, this is just one model run, and it may be way off. The other models still have some snow across the plains mid-next week, but they are also trending less and less.

The beginning of this year’s LRC: 

There is a signature part of this pattern that signaled the start of this years cycling pattern. If you go back into early to mid-October, then you can see it, but it is such a complex puzzle.  I stared at the puzzle for two hours last night and I could barely do the weather at 10 PM on 41 Action News when I was done. I even spent time staring at one of those puzzles, a stereogram. Eventually you can see what’s hidden within the complex puzzle. This cycling weather pattern puzzle is just now coming into focus. This storm next week was not a big upper low in the last cycle as some of the models were trying to show yesterday. It was a strong wave that dipped down out of Canada and swung across the middle of North America. This is happening again next week, but in the last cycle it was less than three weeks out from summer, and now we are three weeks from the beginning of winter.  After this moves by next week another one of those Pacific Storm Generating Machines is likely going to form which would likely mean another warm up.  Then, there is another cold part of the cycling pattern due back in around that first day of winter. There have not been a lot of storm systems in this pattern as we have discussed. There has been a domination of ridges aloft. You can read more about it in my winter forecast.

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Let us look at how this storm system evolves.  The map on the left shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above us, valid in 72 hours or Friday night. Energy aloft is forecast to dive south towards Mexico and we are getting many different solutions at how this will evolve. When this type of storm begins digging it often digs harder and farther west than what the models forecast.  This will likely mean that this system will follow suit and dive towards Baja, CA.  Within a few days this system will close off into an  upper low and  then wait for its kicker.

This next map on the right shows the evolution of the kicking storm system.

2As you can see here, there are some very important features that show up that are big players in the evolution of what happens next. As I discussed, we are now beginning to see a repeat in the weather pattern as we move into LRC Cycle 2.  I have been looking for this big ridge in feature #1. This is the type of feature that will produce an Arctic air mass. In the first cycle the Arctic air mass formed on the other side of the hemisphere. And, now that we are closer to winter it will likely try to form on this side of the Northern Hemisphere. The old upper low, the one I talked about forming on the first map, will be getting kicked out by Sunday night.

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This third map, on the left, shows yet another Pacific storm being generated by what we are calling this years Pacific Storm Generating Machine.  This storm is being created by this year’s LRC and cycling weather pattern. This sill likely create low pressure over western Canada and try to wipe out any Arctic air mass that begins to form. And, you can see what has happened to next weeks storm. It is just a big trough going by, similar to what happened during the second week of October, but just farther north in that first cycle. This may still be able to produce a band of snow near and behind the cold front around Wednesday.

We will continue to get new and varying solutions on the models. But, this weaker system, and more progressive system seems to fit better.

The Arctic Oscillation did not dip deep negative as it was being forecast to do by some of the models ten days ago. In future LRC Cycles we need to continue monitoring the AO and NAO, and other factors. If there is more blocking in future cycles, then this storm could become the much bigger storm that was being forecast just a day ago.  We still need to monitor all of this closely now, but the trend is not our snow enthusiast friend at the moment.

Kansas City Snowfall Last Two Years:

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Gary

Quiet This Week, Changes Next Week?

Good Tuesday,

Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the 50s.  Then, Thursday-Saturday will be dry with highs in the 40s as seasonable cold air moves in.  So, this week is pretty quiet in the weather department.  Next week is looking like a different story as we monitor three players.

1. A small rain system in Texas.

2. A developing system in the Rockies.

3. A piece of Arctic air heading south from western Canada.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this changing weather pattern,

Have a great day and week.

PS: The International Space Station is visible tonight for 3 minutes at 6:32 PM, look SSW.

Jeff

Seasonable Cold

Good Monday,

A cold front is moving through now and a second one will move through Tuesday.  This front will bring a seasonably cold air mass to our region by Wednesday with no precipitation.  Highs today will be around 60, Tuesday drops to the 50s and Wednesday cools to the 40s.  We are going in to a quiet weather pattern the next 5-7 days with no real sign of precipitation showing up.

Click on the video below to get an in depth look at the forecast.

Have a great week.

Jeff

The Week After Thanksgiving

Good  Sunday,

We are tracking a storm system that is evolving today.  It will bring wind and some rain, but it is not a major storm.  There is hardly any winter precipitation with this storm.  In our area we will see wind gusts increasing to 40-45 mph this afternoon and evening.  There will be rain showers this afternoon and evening, but amounts will be trace-.25″ as highs come close to 60°.  This is the one main precipitation chance for the next 7 days.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the weather for this week and travel weather today.

I hope you had a great Thanksgiving holiday and have a great week ahead.

Jeff

Weathering Winter

Good Saturday,

I hope you are having a good Thanksgiving.  The weather today looks very nice with highs in the 50s.  Tomorrow will be different with clouds, wind and showers as a storm system moves quickly by.  The wind will be gusting from the south at 30-40 mph, so if you are driving east-west your car, high profile vehicle could get buffeted around.  It will be mild with highs in the 50s.  This will be the main storm to affect travel across the USA Sunday.  Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this next storm and the travel impacts.

Have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead.

Jeff

Winter Weather Forecast

Happy Thanksgiving,

We have issued our winter forecast with an in-depth explanation below. You can go to Weather2020.com, join the weather blog, and participate in the LRC Forecast experience if you want. Or you can email me at gary.lezak@kshb.com and I can answer any questions you have. This is a rather fascinating weather pattern unfolding before our eyes. We will keep you updated. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving Holiday Weeekend!

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Gary

Tracking A Storm System for the Busiest Travel Day

Good Tuesday,

The storm system affecting our area today will move east and affect Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Indianapolis with rain showers.  So, this is not a big storm, but there could be a few delays.  The weather here through the holiday weekend is looking pretty nice.  The weather for the Plaza Lighting will be dry with temperatures in the 40s and a light wind, quite different from last year.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the holiday weather.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

Jeff

Thanksgiving Week Travel Update

Good Monday,

Thanksgiving week is here and some years we can have big storm systems that greatly impact travel.  That is not the case this year.  There is a weak to moderate system to track this week, but its impacts will be low.  On Wednesday it will be tracking through the Midwest, possibly bringing a few delays to O’hare, but again not a big storm system.  The Pacific Northwest will be unsettled, but most locations in the USA the next 5-7 day look great.  Here in KC we have a chance of rain Tuesday, but the next 7 days look dry.  Thanksgiving will see highs in the 50s with 40s for the Plaza Lighting, much better than last year.

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at the Thanksgiving week weather.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

Jeff