Good Wednesday evening/Thursday morning bloggers,
Winter is still three weeks away and it is finally turning a bit colder. The next week has some big changes showing up. We have a great discussion going on over on my Weather2020.com site where we discuss this breakthrough technology. I want to add in my thoughts on our Action Weather Blog here. The LRC is coming into focus this week. Yesterday I suggested that this next weeks storm system fit the LRC, but that it would likely mean a faster, weaker, and farther north track. This is now showing up on the models, unfortunately for us snow enthusiasts. The models have been all over the place. Just look at this example. Yesterday, the European model had an output of 28″ of snow near Kansas City for next Wednesday into Thursday. And, last night’s model, just two model runs later has this solution:
This latest Euro model run doesn’t only not show the 20″ plus snowfall, but it has no snowfall at all over the area that it showed the huge snowstorm that got everyones attention yesterday. Now, this is just one model run, and it may be way off. The other models still have some snow across the plains mid-next week, but they are also trending less and less.
The beginning of this year’s LRC:
There is a signature part of this pattern that signaled the start of this years cycling pattern. If you go back into early to mid-October, then you can see it, but it is such a complex puzzle. I stared at the puzzle for two hours last night and I could barely do the weather at 10 PM on 41 Action News when I was done. I even spent time staring at one of those puzzles, a stereogram. Eventually you can see what’s hidden within the complex puzzle. This cycling weather pattern puzzle is just now coming into focus. This storm next week was not a big upper low in the last cycle as some of the models were trying to show yesterday. It was a strong wave that dipped down out of Canada and swung across the middle of North America. This is happening again next week, but in the last cycle it was less than three weeks out from summer, and now we are three weeks from the beginning of winter. After this moves by next week another one of those Pacific Storm Generating Machines is likely going to form which would likely mean another warm up. Then, there is another cold part of the cycling pattern due back in around that first day of winter. There have not been a lot of storm systems in this pattern as we have discussed. There has been a domination of ridges aloft. You can read more about it in my winter forecast.
Let us look at how this storm system evolves. The map on the left shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above us, valid in 72 hours or Friday night. Energy aloft is forecast to dive south towards Mexico and we are getting many different solutions at how this will evolve. When this type of storm begins digging it often digs harder and farther west than what the models forecast. This will likely mean that this system will follow suit and dive towards Baja, CA. Within a few days this system will close off into an upper low and then wait for its kicker.
This next map on the right shows the evolution of the kicking storm system.
As you can see here, there are some very important features that show up that are big players in the evolution of what happens next. As I discussed, we are now beginning to see a repeat in the weather pattern as we move into LRC Cycle 2. I have been looking for this big ridge in feature #1. This is the type of feature that will produce an Arctic air mass. In the first cycle the Arctic air mass formed on the other side of the hemisphere. And, now that we are closer to winter it will likely try to form on this side of the Northern Hemisphere. The old upper low, the one I talked about forming on the first map, will be getting kicked out by Sunday night.
This third map, on the left, shows yet another Pacific storm being generated by what we are calling this years Pacific Storm Generating Machine. This storm is being created by this year’s LRC and cycling weather pattern. This sill likely create low pressure over western Canada and try to wipe out any Arctic air mass that begins to form. And, you can see what has happened to next weeks storm. It is just a big trough going by, similar to what happened during the second week of October, but just farther north in that first cycle. This may still be able to produce a band of snow near and behind the cold front around Wednesday.
We will continue to get new and varying solutions on the models. But, this weaker system, and more progressive system seems to fit better.
The Arctic Oscillation did not dip deep negative as it was being forecast to do by some of the models ten days ago. In future LRC Cycles we need to continue monitoring the AO and NAO, and other factors. If there is more blocking in future cycles, then this storm could become the much bigger storm that was being forecast just a day ago. We still need to monitor all of this closely now, but the trend is not our snow enthusiast friend at the moment.
Kansas City Snowfall Last Two Years:
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