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A Record Breaker Today

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Periods of clouds with a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm.  The chance of rain is 60%.  High: 74°
  • Tonight:  Clearing out and mild. Low:  56°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  81°

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Let’s begin with this look at “Pond Effect” clouds that Sunny The Weather Dog is showing quite well this morning.  Temperatures dropped to a record low of 48° early this morning breaking the old record in Kansas City by 4°.  The cooler air settled over the warmer water causing the warmer moist air in the pond to rise through the cooler air creating the stratus cloud.  I got up early and looked outside and just had to get out there to snap this picture with Sunny. You can see the clouds hovering above the pond.

The current weather pattern:

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This mornings radar map shows that most of the nation is rather calm. There are a few areas of weakly organized showers and thunderstorms. One of these areas was over southwestern Texas, and another one was moving into northwestern Missouri.

Screen Shot 2017-06-26 at 7.10.00 AM

This disturbance is tracking southeast and the showers and a few thunderstorms were growing and increasing as of 7:15 AM. Let’s track them this morning as they approach KC.

Severe Weather Risks Increasing Later This Week:

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The severe weather risks will be increasing the next few days.  This is in response to a storm we have been expecting this week to produce these potential severe weather risks. In our month long forecast for June we targeted this week to be the most active. It appears to be materializing.

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This map above shows the 500 mb forecast map valid at 7 PM Thursday. The dashed line shows a strong summer disturbance developing and tracking across the western high plains. The main storm is forecast to be in southern Canada. This upper flow is ideal for helping create the conditions for the surface pattern to set up favorably for severe thunderstorms. Exactly how it sets up will be something we will go into more detail later in the week.

Summer Heat In The longer range:

Our cycling weather pattern model has been projecting the week after July 4th to be the first big warm up of the summer over the plains.  It has been showing up on some of the models.

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You can see the developing anticyclone. This is a 312 hour forecast map, but just like the storm this week, this part of the pattern is also right on schedule. How hot will it get? Will it be a developing heat wave? We will look deeper into this as well in the coming days.

Have a great Monday and thank you for participating in this weather experience.  You can comment on the Weather2020.com blog. We will be opening comments here within the next week.

Gary

 

One Day at a Time

Good Sunday bloggers,

The forecast the next several days is not easy and it will be wise on our part to take the forecast one day at a time.  Let’s start with today.

SUNDAY: It has started with 100% sunshine, but clouds will increase as weak disturbances come in from the northwest.  There may be a few showers and sprinkles from Kansas City south and west.  So, weather conditions will vary from northeast to southwest across the region, making for a tough forecast.

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MONDAY: This is where the forecast becomes quite challenging.  A disturbance or two will be tracking in from the northwest.  These disturbances will likely generate areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Every new run of data from every model is showing something different for Monday.  This is important, because if you are in rain during the day tomorrow, your temperature will drop to the 50s and low 60s.  Since, there is little to no consensus in the data on where, when and how extensive the rain will be, makes it hard to make a confident forecast.  Below is just the latest run of our RPM model.  You can see it is 66° in KC with 50s to the north in the rain at noon Monday.  The run before this had rain along I-70 and KC in the 50s.  So, it will be a now-casting forecast Monday.

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The next complex forecast item after tomorrow is the chances of thunderstorms, MCS activity, Wednesday through Saturday or Sunday.  It is looking like an active pattern, but here again, there is little consensus on timing and location of the thunderstorm activity.  The most likely scenario is that the thunderstorms form in the high plains during the afternoon and they roll into our region later at night or into the following morning.  Since, there are multiple chances of rain there will be some locations that receive heavy rain the next seven days.  Again, there is little consensus on where the heaviest rainfall totals will occur.  Below is the rainfall totals through July 2nd as forecast by the 6Z GFS.  Yes, that is a 4″-7″ bulls eye along I-70.  If you look close amounts range from 0.78″ in Iola to 6.46″ in Lawrence.  So, this is not even close to be set in stone.  The bottom line is that we have to take the forecast one day at a time.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Great Weekend Weather, then Changes

Good Saturday bloggers,

We will go into Kansas City’s weather and then discuss the cycling pattern. It has been quite the week as Gary and the Weather2020 team were present at the recent AMS Broadcast conference that was held here in Kansas City. Amazingly, half of our peers in attendance had never been to KC before. We believe they left fulfilled and had a great time while visiting our great city. I held the camera for Gary’s presentation on his Facebook Live yesterday. It really seemed to go well and we will discuss in just a second.

Kansas City:

We are in for some wonderful weekend weather as highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.  Dew points during the afternoon will be in the 40s.  The higher dew points will not return until the middle of next week.  It is not easy to have four consecutive days in the middle of the USA with comfortable humidity levels this time of year.  Here is the dew point forecast through Tuesday, pretty incredible, enjoy!  Remember, the dew point is the temperatures to which the air mass must cool to reach 100% humidity.  So, if it is 80° and the dew point is 73° it only has to cool to 73° to reach 100% humidity, so the air is pretty loaded with water vapor.  If the temperatures is 80° and it must cool to 45° to reach 100% humidity, then there is not nearly as much moisture in the air and this is what we have in store this weekend.

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Let’s go through the forecast the next three days then we will look at the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH) for the end of the week and why we have a chance to see more active weather.

SATURDAY: The weather will be great with abundant sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze as highs reach the mid to upper 70s.

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SUNDAY: We will see more of the same as highs reach the mid to upper 70s with abundant sunshine and a light wind.

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MONDAY: This has potential to be an interesting day as a disturbance tracks in from the northwest.  This disturbance will generate an area of rain and a few thunderstorms. In areas where it is raining during the day, temperatures may be in the 50s to low 60s!  Now, where it is not raining temperatures will reach the 70s.  So, this data has a decent area of rain from KC east midday Monday, hence the temperatures in the 50s.  Now, it is yet to be determined how extensive the rain areas will be and also the timing. These two factors will be crucial in what the temperatures will be like in your location.

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Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH): July 1, 2017

If you are a regular reader of this blog you know we are in a 56 to 61 day cycle.  So, the chance of thunderstorms is increasing for June 28 to July 2nd as a trough is forecast to track from the Rockies to Great Lakes followed by northwest flow. These features likely produce thunderstorms in the Plains and Midwest when it is the end of June and July. Let’s focus on the one main feature, the trough that will track from the Rockies to Great Lakes.  Next Saturday, July 1st, the trough is forecast to be in the Great Lakes.  So, lets look back at all the cycles with this seasons CPH and see if this fits.

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CPH Cycle 4: This is May 2nd which is 60 days prior to July 1st.  You can see the Great Lakes trough and even the trailing northwest flow.

500 mb May 2

 

CPH Cycle 3: This date is March 1st which is 122 days prior to July 1st, or two 61 day cycles.  Again you can see the trough moving into the Great Lakes with the trailing northwest flow.

500 mb March 1

 CPH Cycle 2: This date is January 4th, 178 days prior to July 1st or three 59.3 day cycles.  Once again, here is the trough in the Great Lakes with the trailing northwest flow.  The difference in this cycle is the big upper high in the Gulf of Alaska, so an upper low is tucked underneath in western Oregon, but two days later this low fell apart.

500 mb Jan 4

 CPH Cycle 1: This is November 8th, 235 days prior to July 1st or four, 58.75 day cycles.  Again, you can see the trough in the Great Lakes with northwest flow trailing into Canada.  The difference in this cycle is that the ridge is much bigger and more inland in to the western USA.

500 mb Nov 5

So, when you look at above maps, the Great Lakes trough is consistent and this makes it a strong signature and therefore gives us high confidence in the GFS for July 1st.  So, how does this help?  Well, we know what the weather pattern is going to look like July 1st and we know what a pattern like this means for this time of year and we can make a forecast.  So, when you have a trough in the Great Lakes that has tracked from the Rockies and you follow this with northwest flow at the end of June and early July it usually means clusters of thunderstorms rolling through the Plains and Midwest and we do believe we have a few good chances of rain in our region around July 1st.

I was at Gary’s AMS presentation on Friday and perhaps you saw it on Facebook live, but our peers are still skeptical and that is to be expected.  However, within the year we hope to get the CPH peer reviewed and this will help, but sometimes major discoveries are not accepted until decades after they have been hypothesized.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

The Cycling Weather Pattern Presentation

Good morning weather bloggers & Weather2020.com bloggers,

The blogs have been combined and the process is almost complete. Sometime next week we will likely be opening up the comments on the Action Weather Blog on KSHB.com. The comments will stay open on Weather2020.com as well, but I can imagine most of the bloggers will be coming to the popular KSHB blog to comment in the future. We look forward to sharing with you our weather expertise, analysis, and more.  The rules will be very strict to keep trolls out of the blog that messed with it in the past. There will be immediate banning of any blogger who clearly breaks the rules. This is a great place to share in this weather experience. It will be a positive experience, and one of the rules will be strictly enforced. If the moderators deem that any blogger is creating a negative experience, then that blogger will be banned.  If the blogger that gets banned wants to be reinstated, then and only then they must email us to discuss why there was a banning and to discuss if they would like to abide by the rules of the blog and then there will be a decision to allow the blogger to get back into the conversation.

Friday is a big day, but there are even bigger days ahead of us. I will be presenting the Cycling Weather Pattern Hypothesis, to be renamed the CWP from the going name LRC until the peer review process is over.  We have a paper written, and it will be submitted for review in various journals until it is accepted.  We are in the process of doing this now.  Part of this presentation will be in my talk on Friday morning which we are broadcasting live on www.Facebook.com/GaryLezak. Go like that page and watch in the morning. Before I show you some high-lights here, let’s look at the pattern tonight.

The surface forecast at 4 AM:

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There is a cold front moving through Friday morning, early in the day in Kansas City. A band of thunderstorms will be likely near this front.  As you can see above, this front is located near KC at 4 AM with thunderstorms along it, and you can also see the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy over southeastern Arkansas.  This storm has been producing many small spin-ups with many tornado warnings. Let’s track the front and Cindy together in our comments section Weather2020.com.

The Cycling Pattern Hypothesis (CPH):

The cycling weather pattern has been shared on both blogs for many years. The LRC will now be named the CPH for now.  In this years examples we have shown pattern recognition, the ART to the CPH, in dozens examples as we do each year. This year’s pattern has been cycling in the 56-61 day range since it started in October, centered on 58.5 days, or narrowing in on 58-59 days. This is of extreme importance because there is a huge astronomical event in a total eclipse of the sun on August 21st, around 1:15 PM near Kansas City.  When is August 21st?  59 days from June 23rd, or Friday, today if you are reading this on Friday.  Can you believe that here I am presenting the hypothesis on the day that just happens to fall on the most important cycle date.

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Astronemers are likely the best forecasters in the world and they get very little credit. Look at what they know:

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They are so good at knowing these cycles that they can predict down to the second at when the eclipse will begin. Think about this?  And, we have been sharing with you the cycling weather pattern according to my hypothesis for years. The weather pattern is also cycling regularly, but due to the fact that it is a fluid and has “earthly” factors, the cycle oscillates.  This year’s pattern is in the 56-61 day range:

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There are three main aspects to our hypothesis as you can see above. In the past we have shown you, what is called, Qualitative Analysis or the map to map comparisons. This is the ART. But, now we have the science:

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This graph above shows the Cycling Pattern Index (CPI).  You can see the first four cycles of the pattern. We use Chicago for the CPI as most of the cycling pattern within the westerly belt gets reflected well at the Chicago latitude.  When there is a dip into negative territory this would be a likely storm moving by. Notice how the cycles really line up well when these storm systems and ridges are moving by. There are harmonics of the pattern that really line up extremely well:

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We noticed that the map to map comparisons in cycles 2 and 4 were ridiculously similar.  Analysis has been done quantitatively (SCIENCE) to find out if our “ART” in the pattern recognition lines up with the mathematical analysis. The graph above shows how 59 days lines up. We analyzed all of the possible cycle lengths in the 50 to 65 day range that we saw artistically. Look at the results:

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I was able to find the cycle in December to likely be in the 58.5 day range, and we shared it with you in the blogs.  And, now as you can see above it has been verified and validated. The most likely cycle length in these 20 day periods is indeed 58.5 days. Eswar Iyer did this analysis. Eswar is about to receive his Masters in Meteorology degree from the University of Oklahoma.

When did I find that the pattern was likely cycling and regularly?  Take a look at my second slide in Friday’s presentation:

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This is a mural on my wall at home. It is the only picture in my office. I have friends from college who say I talked about this around 1982 or 1983, but it was the winter of 1987-1988 that the “lightbulb” went off. Oklahoma City averages 8 inches of snow a year. 30 years ago, this next winter, there was a one inch snowstorm in November. In December there was a one foot snowstorm followed by a major ice storm around the holidays. That is my CRX in the KWTV-9 parking lot.  In late January there was another one foot snowstorm. WHAT? Really? A second one foot snowstorm in a city that averages 8 inches of snow a year?  It was that second one foot snowstorm, around 45 days after the first one, that I noticed something incredible.  The pattern looked almost identical. This is what sparked this 30-year, or really life-long quest to bring this technology to the world. It took 15 more years from that point in 1988 to finally realize that it was the entire pattern within the westerly belt that is cycling. And, here we are 30 years later and there has yet to be anything published on this extremely important technology. I believe and feel it will create a paradigm shift in meteorology.  And, yes, it can be used to predict specific events 100 to 300 days into the future. There is a huge limit, however.  A new, unique pattern will set up next fall. Forecasting the weather using our hypothesis is likely impossible in October. Maybe in November it starts to become possible, then in December it becomes a great tool. And, then from January through September it may very well be shown to be the best weather model in the world.  There is a lot more research and work to do.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great weekend. Watch the presentation and let’s see what questions get thrown our way. I plan on attending the big AMS conference in Austin, TX next January and plan on presenting the peer reviewed paper and published article at that time.

Gary

Tropical Storm Cindy Influences Rain Chances

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are tracking Tropical Storm Cindy that is now near the Texas coast.  The system is going to have two main impacts on the weather across eastern Kansas and western Missouri and we will get to this interesting set up below.  First, there is a small disturbance moving by and this is creating a few showers and thunderstorms.  It will be out of here by 3-4 PM and we are not expecting this to have much of an impact as overall today will be a sunny and hot day, but don’t be surprised to see a brief shower or thunderstorm.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Now, lets get into the impacts of Tropical Storm Cindy.  The first impact to our area from Cindy will be heat.  We will be in the subsidence part of the storm, which is sinking air around it’s periphery.  This sinking air will bring heat and mostly dry weather as highs reach the 90s.

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THURSDAY: We will still be seeing the first impact from Cindy, heat, as highs climb back to the 90s.  A brief shower or thunderstorm will be possible early Thursday as leftovers from some thunderstorms forming well west tonight try to limp in.  A cold front will be organizing to our northwest and this leads to the second impact from Cindy.  The remnants of Cindy will be in eastern Texas Thursday afternoon.

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THURSDAY 9 PM: Thunderstorms will be forming along the cold front to our northwest and we will be tracking them as they move southeast towards our region.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: The cold front and thunderstorms will be moving towards us, but the thunderstorms will be falling apart as they approach and the main reason for this is that the convergence along the front will be weakening as the cold front begins to get absorbed by the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy.  Instead of north winds meeting south winds along the front it will be north winds meeting north winds.  Our rain chance depends on how long the showers and thunderstorms along the front can hang on and a few might, so the rain chance is not zero, just much less on the coverage and amounts.

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FRIDAY: The front has completely become absorbed by the tropical storm remnants and has raced away, making for a fantastic Friday with sunshine, lower humidity and highs in the 80s.

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THIS WEEKEND: Overall, we are looking at great weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  We will be watching a disturbance from the northwest that could bring a few showers later Saturday into Sunday, but the latest data does not have much with this.

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So, we may have a brief shower this afternoon, but overall it will be hot and humid.  There may be a brief shower or thunderstorm  Thursday morning, but overall it will be a hot day.  Then, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible later Thursday night into early Friday and a few showers may occur later Saturday into Sunday.  But, we will mostly have some great early summer weather Friday-Sunday.

Have a great day and rest of your week.

Jeff

 

A Tropical System May Have Influences Farther North

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin today’s blog with a national look at the weather pattern and how a developing weak tropical storm will likely influence the weather pattern. I have been monitoring the pattern closely to see if this tropical system will actually influence the weather forecast for areas as far north as Kansas City, and I am confident now that it actually will have at least a subtle impact. Let’s take a look.

National Weather Picture

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This first map, above, shows the developing surface weather pattern valid at 7 PM Wednesday. The GFS model is showing the tropical system approaching the Louisiana/Texas coast line, and at the same time there is a much larger scale system developing over Nebraska. This Nebraska system is a synoptic scale storm that spans 1,000 miles or more with its frontal systems, while the tropical system is much smaller scale spanning a few hundred miles. As the tropical system moves north the influence on the larger scale feature may seem subtle, but it is likely going to be a factor into where thunderstorms form, how the precipitation pattern develops, and more. If there was no tropical system, this central plains storm would not be developing as shown on these next few maps.

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This second map shows the tropical system now inland over eastern Texas. The front over Nebraska will have gone through a transition with some effects that are rather subtle showing up as the circulation from the tropical system moves inland. One important note: The strength of the tropical system before it crossed the coast is important. If it has developed a very strong circulation, then it is likely to have this impact or bigger on the flow. If it ends up weaker or takes a different track, then the influences may not be as great.

The front on the map above moves south, and take a look at where it is forecast to be located by 7 AM Friday:

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On this next map, above, you can see some of the subtle, yet perhaps not so subtle affects from the circulation from the tropical system. The front begins to wrap around the tropical system, and then it jumps south. Take a look at this 7 PM forecast:

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This really becomes interesting on Friday. Just look at this forecast map. It is just a forecast, but only three mornings away.  What is left of the tropical systems actually in Missouri on this forecast map. The cold front will have either surged south, or redeveloped with the tropical system influence.  A week ago, this front was looking like another severe weather producing system, and it still may be so, but the tropical low may reduce that threat a bit farther north.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Sunny and hot. High: 91°
  • Tonight:  A few evening clouds. There is a weak wind shift line near the area, but any chance of thunderstorms appears extremely low. So, it should be dry for the big Royals game against the Red Sox with light winds and a first pitch temperature around 88 degrees.
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and hotter. High: 93°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot. High:  94°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain or thunderstorms. High:  84°

Have a great day. Let us let this sort itself out in the next 24 hours and look into the trends in tomorrow’s blog. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We will be opening comments on this blog sometime next week. For  now, you can join in the conversation on Weather2020.com.

Gary

A Tropical System Is Developing In The Gulf

Good morning bloggers,

A tropical system is forming near the Yucatan Peninsula and may become a tropical storm today as it drifts into the Gulf of Mexico.  Around two weeks ago Meteorologist Jeremy Nelson, who learned about the LRC while working here in KC and is now the Chief Meteorologist at WJCL in Savannah, GA called me and asked me about the cycle length of the LRC. He noticed that there would likely be a tropical system forming by looking at the previous two LRC Cycles.  After our discussion he made this forecast and shared it with his viewers.  The National Hurricane Center then came out with this prediction over the weekend. This is a great example of how the LRC can help in making longer range predictions way ahead of traditional methods being used. Wow, look at what Jeremy showed on the air and how similar it is to what the NHC put out over this past weekend:

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Here is this mornings enhanced satellite picture taken from Weathertap.com:

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There is a lot to see on this satellite picture.  There was another complex of thunderstorms over northeastern Texas, and you can see the high cloud tops enhanced near the Yucatan Peninsula.  Active storm systems were tracking across the northeast Pacific Ocean, and we will be monitoring that system closely as we move through this week. Jeff Penner showed the cycling pattern well in yesterdays blog entry.

The Developing Pattern:

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The models have varying tracks for where this tropical system will cross the coastline.  The map above shows the system intensifying as it moves north tonight and tomorrow over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.  The GFS then takes it north into Louisiana and Alabama, while the NAM and European Model take it farther west:

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Let’s see how it develops today.  While this is all going on Kansas City is under a band of late spring cloud cover. Summer begins in two days! Have a great day and thank you for participating sharing in this weather experience .

Gary

Calmer for a Few Days

Happy Father’s day bloggers,

We have completed a five day period where there were chances of thunderstorms, some severe and boy did we get it.  We have some calmer days ahead before it gets active again.  Let’s go through what has occurred, the calmer days and the return of thunderstorm chances.  We will do a LRC check as we look into the active weather’s return.

Here are the severe weather reports from Saturday night.  The tornadoes were confined to Wisconsin even though we had a brief tornado warning Saturday night around Odessa.

Severe Weather June 17 2017

 

As we look at the severe reports closer in you can see a path along I-70 and some to the north as there was one main severe thunderstorm that crossed KC.  There was a second severe thunderstorm in Platte county, but it weakened as it moved east.

Severe Weather June 17 2017 Close

 

On June 13th we officially had received 0.03″ of rain at KCI, well, since then we have seen 2.81″ and have practically caught up to where we should be for this time of month.  Saturday KCI received 1.62″ of rain and did you know we average 0.17″ of rain per day this time of year.  We are just coming out of the wettest time of year on average.

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This is the Father’s day sunrise in KC, what a beautiful start to the day and a beautiful end to a very active period of weather.  So, now what is next?

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SEVERE RISKS SUNDAY: The severe threat is well to the south as the cold front from Saturday pushes away from the middle of the USA.

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SUNDAY: A surface high pressure will be moving in from western Kansas and with winds blowing away and clockwise around a surface high in the northern hemisphere we will be seeing a northwest wind which brings in cooler and less humid conditions.

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MONDAY: The surface high pressure will still be in control, so we are in for more nice weather as highs reach the low 80s.  The humidity will remain in check as we see a westerly breeze.  There will be a few clouds around.

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TUESDAY: The surface high pressure will still be near by, so the nice weather will continue.  It will warm to near 90° as our winds continue from the west and southwest, but the humidity will stay tolerable.  Thunderstorms in western Kansas will not reach here Tuesday night and Wednesday, but they may Thursday and Friday.  Let’s talk about that and show how this fits LRC 2016-17.

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Here is the upper level flow forecast for Thursday, June 22nd.  Let’s look at the three features labelled below.  The first one is a positively tilted trough in the Rockies, a ridge near the west coast of North America and a small wave in the Tennessee Valley moving into the southeast USA.  The small wave may be a combination of a system from the west and tropical system forming in the Caribbean Sea.  We will have more on the tropical system this week.

June 22 2017

 

Here is the 500 mb flow from April 24th.  As you know Gary has been discussing the cycle length quite a bit this year and we have determined it is around 59 days.  So, June 22nd and April 24th are 59 days apart and look at the three features.  One is the positively tilted trough moving in the Rockies, two is the ridge near the west coast of North America and three is the system moving through the southeast.

Now, there are seasonal difference as the southeast system is deeper in April, but remember it may be a very wet storm this week as it combines with a tropical system.  The jet stream is undercutting the ridge off of North America in April, but in June it is weaker and cannot do that, so more energy goes up and over the ridge, but the big features are in general in the same location.

 

Apr 24 2017

 

So, the GFS and the LRC are in agreement and this gives us confidence in the forecast for this period.  This means we have increased chances of thunderstorms Wednesday night-Friday as the Rockies trough moves east and interacts with summer heat and humidity.

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Have a great week and again Happy Father’s day.

Jeff Penner

Severe Thunderstorms Hit KC, What Is Next?

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

We broke through the ice last night ending what was becoming a dry month of June. Well, no longer as huge thunderstorms formed, fed by high dew points around 75 to 77 degrees Friday night.  These thunderstorms were really large and produced winds up to 88 mph over parts of northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.

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The above satellite pictures show what this ‘monster” turned into. These are the enhanced water vapor satellite pictures from 4:30 AM this morning.  There was one last thunderstorm that was potentially severe at 7 AM this morning over southern Johnson county Kansas.

Today’s Severe Weather Risk:

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There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms again today. Yesterday’s weather developed about as we expected with that developing area over northern Nebraska. It then grew into the strongest line of thunderstorms of the year in the Kansas City region and it about wore me out last night on 41 Action News.  Then, I awaken to this big thunderstorm this morning, so what is next?  We will be monitoring a developing and strengthening cold front. Moisture will be pooling ahead and near this front and with the rain that just fell, there may be dew points of 80 degrees which will provide tremendous fuel for any thunderstorms that form.

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Before we see thunderstorms these 80° dew points will combine with highs in the 90s making for heat index values of 102° to 110°.  So, we are in an Excessive Heat Warning.

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Let’s go through this crazy weather day as we have heat and thunderstorms in the forecast.

4 PM SATURDAY: A surface trough will be located near KC as the cold front approaches from the north.  At this time it will be sweltering with highs in the 90s along with the extreme humidity.  There should be no thunderstorms on radar.

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7 PM SATURDAY: The cold front merges with the trough and we should see rapid thunderstorm development in our region.  Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.  So, if you are out between 4 PM ad 7 PM be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions.

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2 AM SUNDAY: The cold front will surge south and take the severe weather threat with it.  However, there will be lingering showers and thunderstorms behind the front and these will likely not be severe, but small hail is not out of the question.

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FATHER’S DAY: The rain will end by 4-5 AM in the morning leading to a fantastic Father’s day forecast.  It will be mostly sunny, less humid and cooler with highs 75° to 80°. An amazing turnaround from the weather today.

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Have a great weekend and keep an eye to the sky this afternoon and evening.

Gary and Jeff

Thunderstorms Turning Towards KC

Good late Friday evening bloggers,

A strong to severe line of thunderstorms developed just before sunset and it is turning towards KC. We will be monitoring closely to see if this holds together, but conditions are favorable for it to do so. Take a look:

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The SPC upgraded the risk to moderate this evening. Wow! I will be on 41Action News and you can comment over at Weather2020.com.

Gary