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A Cold Front and a Stationary Front

Good Monday bloggers,

WOW! What a weekend in Kansas City. We had the Billy Joel concert, the Plaza Art Fair, many, many other events and a tremendous Chiefs game.  The weather was spectacular for all the events. Now, we are tracking some changes. A cold front will move across the area Tuesday and then we have an interesting and changing set up for the weekend.

The Tuesday cold front was located from the northern Plains to Rockies on Monday morning. Let’s track the front.

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TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: The front will be in Nebraska and Iowa, so all locations will start in the 60s with lots of clouds.  It will be mostly dry.

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TUESDAY 1 PM TO 3 PM: The front will move across Kansas City between 1 PM and 3 PM. Temperatures will warm to around 80° ahead of the front and drop to the 50s and 60s behind the front.  Notice, the 57° in Hiawatha, KS. There will be a few showers along and behind the front. We do not expect much rain with this situation.

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TUESDAY AROUND 5 PM: The front will be heading south and the cool air will be moving in. KC may see temperatures drop from near 80° to near 60° between 2 PM and 5 PM. You can see just some showers and drizzle will accompany the front. Total rainfall will be a trace to .25″.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING:  This will feel like fall with lows in the 40s. Low 40s are possible across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: This will lead to a wonderful Wednesday with sunshine, a light wind and highs in the 60s. A surface high pressure will be moving into Kansas.

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Thursday and Friday will be mostly calm and warmer as a front sets up across the Plains and Midwest. This is looking different from anything we have seen with the old pattern. So, yes, as we  turn the calendar to October a new pattern is evolving.

THIS WEEKEND: Highs will range from the 80s to 40s. KC will be in the middle and it is a tough call at this time to figure out which side of the front we will be on. The latest data has us in the colder air Saturday and warmer air Sunday, but this is likely to change.

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What about rain with this set up? This is also uncertain. But, it does look like some locations will see decent rain and thunderstorms. The most likely locations will be along and north of the front.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Tuesday Cold Front

Good Sunday bloggers,

The day Chiefs fans have been waiting a long time for has arrived. Patrick Mahomes at home. The weather looks great for the Chiefs, last day of the Plaza Art Fair and first full day of Fall.

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We are tracking a cold front that arrives Tuesday, so let’s go through the sequence of events today through Tuesday.

SUNDAY: It will be another sunny and gorgeous day with highs in the mid to upper 70s which is slightly warmer than Saturday. There are low clouds along and south of I-44 and these will be heading north tonight.

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MONDAY MORNING: The low clouds will be in the area with temperatures in the 50s and 60s along with higher humidity. There may be some mist and fog as well.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: The low clouds will break up as highs climb to 75°-80°. You will notice the humidity is back as well. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest and will interact with the humidity, in our area, on Tuesday.

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TUESDAY: The front will be moving southeast across the region and showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Some locations will receive .25″ to .50″ while others see a trace or nothing. Yes, it is the same pattern at this moment. Also, the temperature forecast is tricky as it will be in the 50s and 60s behind the front and 70s and 80s ahead of the front. So, your high temperature forecast is greatly dependent on the timing of the front. All locations will drop to the 50s and 60s by evening.

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Here is the bottom line for the week ahead.

You can gamble with the fertilizer and hope your yard sees .25″ to .50″ on Tuesday as this is the only day with a decent rain chance. If you have grass seed, you can give the sprinklers a one day break, but more rain is needed than one day of trace to .50″ to get the grass to germinate and grow.

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We still need the rain, as officially we are about 4.50″ below average. It will be harder to make up the deficit as we go into the colder season as heavy rainfall events become less likely. Colder air holds less moisture.

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Have a great week and go CHIEFS!

Jeff Penner

Fall Begins at 8:54 PM

Good Saturday bloggers,

Fall begins at 8:54 PM tonight and the weather is following suit. We have dropped into the 40s this morning, officially, for the first time since April 29th.

What is going on with the Earth and Sun on this day? The sun is shining directly on the equator as its direct rays head south for the winter. During the summer, the sun shines directly over the Tropic of Cancer which puts the direct rays over the northern hemisphere. This is why it gets so hot. During the winter the sun shines directly over the Tropic of Capricorn, putting the least direct rays over the northern hemisphere. This is why we turn colder. It is the tilt of the Earth, at about 23.5°, that causes the seasons. During the winter the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun. The Earth tilt never changes, but you can see how the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun during the winter and towards the sun during the summer.

Seasons sun and earth

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There are a ton of events this weekend and the weather could not be much better. The Plaza Art fair runs from 10 AM to 10 PM today and 11 AM to 5 PM Sunday. I will be out there from 4 PM to 6 PM today at our booth near Seasons 52.

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The weather looks great for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes home opener! Temperatures will start in the 50s for tailgating then warming to the 60s. Highs will reach 75°-80° which means low 70s for Kickoff.

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Here is the look at the weather for the first few days of fall.

TODAY: Near perfect with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The wind will be from the east-southeast at 5-15 mph.

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SUNDAY: After lows around 50° we will warm to 75°-80° with abundant sunshine and winds from the southeast at 5-15 mph.

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MONDAY: It will be warmer and more humid as south winds of 5-15 mph bring back Gulf of Mexico moisture. There will be more clouds as well.

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TUESDAY: We will be in the same pattern for another 10-14 days. This means the same old thing is likely on Tuesday, as far as rainfall, when this cold front arrives. We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms with amounts a trace to .25″. A few locations may see .50″. The most significant rain will be well east.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

A Massive Change In The Weather Pattern In Around Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

What we have all been waiting for will arrive in around 15 more days. The pattern we are currently in is the old pattern that set up last October.  It was the worst pattern ever, in my opinion, for the Kansas City region for enjoying the results and fulfillment of our weather hobbies. Again, this is more objective and just my opinion, and yet I know many of you would agree with me. Oh, we were constantly entertained, as there were very few stretches where “nothing” was going on, and unfortunately we were left frustrated around 90% of the time, which is off the charts bad.  Look at this in 15 days:

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This is a fantasy prediction where a computer model attempts to showcase a new pattern. It is just “fantasy”, until we experience reality.  This would be a perfect time for a big western trough, picking up a tropical storm.  I will patiently wait.

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These next two maps above, show today and Saturday, the surface flow. Today will be cooler as drier air moves in from the north. Have a great day!

Gary

Major Changes Are Showing Up In The Weather Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

There is a hot pattern continuing as the old LRC continues to dominate our weather across the North America.  There are some major changes showing up, however.  Fall begins Saturday night, and this is when the sun sets at the North Pole. The new LRC likely truly begins setting up around the time this happens around 8:54 PM Saturday night, and right on cue some interesting changes being to open our minds to these changes.  Take a look at the pattern forming by next Tuesday:

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We are likely 75% old and 25% new by mid-next week.  The jet stream is strengthening in response to an increasing temperature contract from the North Pole to the Equator.  As colder air masses develop, the jet stream will continue to strengthen and the new pattern will evolve. For Kansas City, I do not believe it is possible to have a worse pattern than the one we just experienced this past year. It was certainly entertaining for us weather enthusiasts, and ridiculously frustrating. The frustrations were off the charts bad, in my opinion.  It has been close to 4 years since KC has had even 3″ of snow in one storm. Think about this alone. So, we have experienced around four straight very bad patterns. Just because we are “due” for a good pattern, a much more exciting one, does not mean it will happen. I just will argue it can’t be worse than this past year.

What you are seeing above in this 500 mb forecast map from last nights GFS model run, the new experimental GFS model, which I am not impressed with so far by the way, is a strengthening jet stream. And, there is a trough developing and swinging positively tilted out of the Rocky Mountains out over the plains and upper midwest.  This next map shows the surface forecast:

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A rather strong frontal system is approaching KC next Tuesday.  This will likely drop our lows all the way down to near 40 degrees next week.  And, there is a good chance of thunderstorms or a cold rain around Tuesday-Wednesday. Let’s see how this looks on the next few model runs.  In the mean time we have this next system to look forward to on Thursday night:

Thursday night/Friday morning at 1 AM Central Time:

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Will those thunderstorms survive and arrive in our area early Friday morning? We will be going in-depth on 41 Action News tonight on all of these changes.  It will heat up into the 90s again these next two days before we drop on Friday. It will likely be a dry weekend. Go Chiefs on Sunday!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Here We Go Again, One Last Time

Good morning bloggers,

While the east coast has yet another major rain event, after a lot of snow events this past winter, Kansas City is likely again in the “wrong spot” for the end of the week wet system. Just yesterday I argued that it would bring us some badly needed rain, since it has been dry this month in a few spots again (KCI Airport is sitting at 0.88″ in September).  And now, it appears the system is going to target areas farther south.  There is still a pretty decent chance of rain Thursday night as a front moves through, and then a heavy rain event will set up well south of KC on Friday into Saturday.  Take a look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS model ending Sunday morning:

gfs_apcpn_us_21

As it is easily seen, our region near KC is in a drier spot. There are 2″+ amounts over northern Nebraska and Iowa, and also over Oklahoma and Texas.  It is only Tuesday, so let’s see if that system forms near Baja, CA.

The Remnants of CAT 4 Hurricane Florence are moving off into the Atlantic Ocean today. This wet system weakened to a CAT 1 storm as it drifted along the North Carolina coast south into South Carolina. This system produced rainfall estimates in the over 30″ range in a few spots, and it is reminiscent of what happened with Harvey last year.  Let’s take a look. These graphics are from the Weather Underground Blog:

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The North Carolina record was likely just broken with over 30″ in spots.

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Last years Harvey was a bit different, yet also a stalling and slow moving system that set records.  The track of Harvey is also shown on this map.

harvey-est-rainfall

It will be another hot day in KC with high humidity.  It will be close to 90 degrees each day until the cold front moves through Thursday night.  Have a great day.

Gary

A Tropical System In The Pacific To Monitor

Good morning bloggers,

The National Hurricane Center has placed a 70% chance of tropical storm development near Baja California in the next five days.  This is a system that we will be paying close attention to as well, as the pattern becomes favorable for bringing moisture from this systems and spreading it our way this weekend.  The big Plaza Art Fair is this weekend, so this is something that has my attention.  Here is the 5-day prediction for formation from the NHC:

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This next map above shows what may be a tropical storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of California.  While this system develops and tracks northeast, Kansas City is going to have a rather warm week with a cold front still located far to the north on Wednesday night.    This next map, below, shows the prediction from the European Model valid Saturday morning. This model may or may not be over predicting the organization to this system coming in from the tropics.  The GFS model has another solution, and it is still a bit similar to this one in the production of rain.  The GFS may be a bit more realistic with less surface development and it would have us in the colder air.  This will sort itself out in the next few days.

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Now, look closely. Do you see the purple line in Canada on these forecast maps?  The purple line shows the 540 thickness line, which is the 50/50 snow line, and there will be significant snow in Canada. Last winter, that 540 thickness line was rarely ever discussed because we had very few chances for significant snowfalls, and when we did have chances, this line was not a major factor.  Let’s hope we have to discuss this 540 line in the next few months.  Okay, I got on a tangent, let’s get back to this map below.  This forecast map from the Euro model shows heavy rainfall on Saturday. Again, this is the weekend of the Plaza Art Fair, and it appears we have a weather forecast problem.

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Fall begins at 8:54 PM Saturday night. This is when the sun sets at the North Pole, and as discussed in the peer reviewed paper on the LRC this is when the pattern may truly begin developing.  We are still in the old pattern now, the 2017-2018 LRC continues for just two to three more weeks.  Let’s see how this all sets up.

And, HOW ABOUT PATRICK MAHOMES for the Kansas City Chiefs?  He set the record for the most touchdowns by any quarterback in NFL history in the first two NFL games of a season with TEN TDs.  Wow!  He had to be almost perfect yesterday, or the Chiefs would have lost. Hopefully the defense gets a bit better, as I am convinced the offense will be GREAT.  Speaking of great, have a GREAT day!  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

Florence Rainfall & The Last Days of Summer

Good Sunday bloggers,

Florence is still moving slowly west across South Carolina. Since the heaviest rain bands have been northeast of the center, this has put southeast North Carolina in the middle of the insane rain. How much has occurred?

You can see from the radar estimated totals that southeast North Carolina is clearly the location that had the heaviest rain. There are three bands where the rain was and is out of control.

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Those bands have seen 25″ to 40″ of rain. It will keep raining through Monday in these locations, but not quite as heavy or widespread, as Florence accelerates and moves away.

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Fall begins next Saturday at 8:45 PM and so let’s go day by day for the rest of summer. In stark contrast to the Carolinas, we need rain.

Monday-Wednesday we will have the chance for a few showers and T-Storms as we sit on the northern edge of tropical moisture.

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MONDAY: Florence will be heading towards New England, affecting Pittsburgh, PA. It will not arrive until the Chiefs leave, hopefully on a victory flight. We will be hot and humid with a slight chance for a few showers and T-Storms.

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TUESDAY: We remain hot and humid with highs around 90°.  Again, a few T-Storms will be possible while the organized rain occurs across Nebraska and Iowa along a front. This front will not make it here as it will be stalling and lifting north as a warm front.

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WEDNESDAY: The main rain and T-Storms will be located from Nebraska, Iowa to the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin along the warm front. We will remain hot and humid (Highs around 90°) with an increasing south breeze. A few T-Storms are again possible.

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THURSDAY: It will be another hot and humid day with a brisk south wind. A cold front will arrive at night and this is our next chance for organized rain and T-Storms. Highs again will be around 90°.

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FRIDAY: The cold front will head south and our winds will turn to the northeast. This will take highs down to the 70s, just in time for fall beginning at 8:45 PM Saturday. Notice, that the front may stall and begin to return north as a warm front. A system may also be coming in from the southwest. This system may be part of the remnants of a Pacific tropical system. These features will bring more rain chances next week. The details are not set yet.

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The bottom line: If you like summer weather, enjoy the next five days. If you need to fertilize, wait until the end of the week. If you have grass seed out, get the sprinkler out and hope for free water in a week.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

Florence Update and Our Next Chance of Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

Florence made landfall Friday morning around 7 AM near Wilmington, NC as a category 1. As we have been saying, wind has been an issue, but the rain is going to be a huge problem.

These are the wind observations from 8 AM Saturday. On land the wind was 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Look at the 40-50 mph wind gusts offshore on the buoys. The wind is always higher on the water as the surface has less friction. Now, the sea-land difference is less now as Florence is much weaker.

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This is a very colorful map and it represents radar estimated rainfall totals  since Wednesday morning. How much rain do these colors represent?  See below.

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The highest totals we can find, so far, are between Swansboro,NC and northwest of Maysville, NC. They have seen a staggering 2 feet of rain! They are easily on their way to 30″-40″ of rain.

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Wilmington, NC has seen around 11″-12″ of rain as of 8 AM Saturday. Their rainfall total could easily reach 20″-25″. Raleigh, NC is on the edge of the heaviest rain, but they could easily end up with 5″ to 10″ of rain.

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Where does Florence go from here?

SATURDAY MORNING: Florence is about 100 miles southwest of Wilmington, NC. It is moving west at 2 mph. Keep in mind, on average, we walk at 3-4 mph. So, the slow movement is going to cause the catastrophic flooding. It looks like southeast North Carolina will be the hardest hit as the persistent heavy rain bands are northeast of the center. That heavy rain band is right over the locations that have seen 2 feet of rain!

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Florence is still wreaking havoc on the Carolinas. We are dry, very warm and humid with highs 85°-90°.  Also, the Chiefs play in Pittsburgh on Sunday and Florence will affect that area, but most likely on Monday.

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SUNDAY NOON: Florence will be well south of Pittsburgh, so the Chiefs will not have to deal with the storm. Florence will affect western Pennsylvania Monday, but after the Chiefs fly back home on a victory flight. We will be in for another very warm and humid day. There is a 5% chance for an isolated T-Storm.

The Ohio and eastern Tennessee Valley’s and New England will see .25″ to 2″ of rain from Florence as it will be moving faster and be much weaker.

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All of a sudden it has been a week since we have seen rain. When is our next chance?

MONDAY: A few T-Storms may pop up during the afternoon, but most will stay dry with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. We are watching a cold front to the north.

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TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The cold front will head to around I-80, then stall and lift back north as a warm front. So, we will stay very warm and humid with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°. Each day there will be a slight chance of an isolated T-Storm. The organized T-Storms will be across Nebraska and Iowa.

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THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A new cold front will approach from the west and this will be our next decent chance of organized T-Storms. So, if you are seeding and/or fertilizing your yard you will have to drag out the sprinkler as we are a week away from any meaningful rain.

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Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

Hurricane Florence Makes Landfall

Good morning bloggers,

At 7 AM eastern time it appears that we have had the outer edge of the hurricane make landfall.  This is a minimal CAT 1 hurricane and it will weaken as it moves inland away from its energy source over the warm Atlantic waters.  Speaking of water, this is one of the biggest threats from the storm, the flooding from 10 to 20 inch rainfall totals with some higher amounts likely from this slow moving system. It is expected to make a turn to the southwest this morning and drift into South Carolina.

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Back in Kansas City, the weather has dries out quite a bit.  The new LRC will be setting up in just three weeks and I am so ready for a new pattern. There is one part of the pattern cycling back through, the old pattern is still alive and well, in the next two weeks. Here is one rainfall forecast beginning this morning and ending at the end of the month:

gfs_apcpn_us_52

September is one of the wettest months on average in KC where typically we have over 4″ of rain.  Four months average over 4″ of rain: May, June, July, and September.  While some spots have had 2 to 3 inches of rain this month, KCI Airport has only had 0.88″ thus far.  Again, I am so ready for this pattern to be over. We may have had one  or two region wide precipitation events since this pattern set up last October.

Have a great day!  It’s Friday night in the big town.  Go to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary