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Two Rain Systems Down, One to Go

Good Monday,

The second rain system we have been tracking is now exiting Missouri.  We are now turning our attention to a third rain system that is due in Wednesday and Thursday.  This system has the best  chance to bring widespread rainfall amounts over 1″.  The rest of today through Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and dry with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

Here is a look at Powercast for 6 AM Wednesday.  We should be seeing some areas of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms at that time.

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Click on the video below for more details on this next storm system.

Have a great week.

Jeff

Three Storm Systems

Good Saturday,

Well it is no secret that we need rain and we are in the midst of the first of three storm systems the next seven days.  This storm is fairly strong, but the rain areas have been scattered and some locations have seen as much as 1″-4″ of rain, while others have seen a trace to .20″.

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The driest location have been from Johnson county south, down the state line.  The scattered showers will be around through the afternoon, exiting by 4-6 PM.  So, if you are headed to the P & L or a KU watch party this evening, it will be cloudy and cool with some fog, temperatures in the 40s.  The second storm system is timed for Sunday night-Monday and the third is timed for Wednesday-Thursday.

Click on the video below for a detailed look at these three systems.

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

The Drought May Be About To Get A Little Break

Good evening bloggers,

A drought has been growing over Missouri and it has been expanding in recent weeks. There is a series of storm systems now approaching and Kansas City and surrounding communities should get some rain. The question will be “will it be enough”?  Hopefully by next week we will have had two or three inches of rain, but right now I am still a bit concerned.

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Wow! Look at this 9 PM surface map showing the warm air that surged in Thursday. Thunderstorms have developed over western Kansas but they will weaken and fall apart tonight. A new band of rain will develop by late morning.

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As you can see, we need some rain and soon! Let’s see how this sets up today. We will keep you updated on 41 Action News.

Gary

Simple, We Need Rain!

Good Wednesday,

We are about 7.50″ below average rainfall since October 7th with a total rainfall of about 3.79″.  So, we need the rain and there are good chances in the forecast.  Before we get to the rain we are going to have a Thursday warm surge.  So, let’s go through this series of weather changes.

THURSDAY MORNING: It will start cloudy and cool with temperatures in the 40s as a warm front begins a surge north.  There is a chance of drizzle and a few rain showers, but amounts will be trace-.05″ at most.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Wow!  Look at this, as the warm front surges north. The sun will return with south winds 15-35 mph taking our temperature to near 80° which means great weather out at the Power and Light for the sweet 16.

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FRIDAY 7 AM: OK, here is the storm we are monitoring that should bring us some decent rainfall.  Friday morning will likely be dry and mild with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

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FRIDAY 4 PM: Well, let’s hope this is right as we are seeing a nice band of showers and thunderstorms move through the region.  The severe threat is low, but something we need to watch.  This band will be forming just west of KC, so we need it to form quickly, so that we can benefit.

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FRIDAY NIGHT: After the main band of rain moves by, we should see additional showers and a few thunderstorms as the main upper level storm tracks to our south, putting us in the comma head part of the storm.  Now, the comma head will seem to be a bit dysfunctional.  Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

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SATURDAY: The main storm slowly pulls away, so we should see periods of drizzle, rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm much of the day as highs reach the 50s and 60s.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: The storm system is moving slow enough and taking a great track (to our south) for all of eastern Kansas and western Missouri to see a nice drink of water.  However, it has been so dry and we need to “break the ice”.  So, it will be interesting to see how this really evolves, but I would be surprised of we did not see at least .25″ to 1.00″ in many locations.  This data has the most rain to our east, but it could easily shift west or yes even further east.

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If this storm is a disappointment, then we have two to three more chances next week.

Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff

Six Storm Systems Are Showing Up For KC

Good morning bloggers,

There are six storm systems showing up in the next fifteen days. At the end of this blog we will look deeper into the first two of these storm systems. This will be a big test for our dry pattern that we have been in since the LRC set up almost six months ago.

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This is becoming harder to imagine. Kansas City is now down 7.50″ since this year’s cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC developed. We can trace the beginning of the pattern back to October 7th the past two years. Since that date Kansas City is down 7.50″. What happened in the 30 days leading up to October 7th is also incredible:

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As you can see, the rain literally shut off on day 1 of this years weather pattern. Now, if you want to look at it on just an annual basis, then this year we are just one two inch rain from getting back to average. Of course, this deficit is growing every day.

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Here is one last important rainfall statistic that I looked into last night. Here are Kansas City’s wettest dates since October 7th:

  • January 16th: 0.67″
  • December 4th: 0.60″
  • March 6th: 0.32″
  • December 25th: 0.29″
  • November 2nd: 0.29″

These are Kansas City’s wettest five dates in these dry 166 days. Wow!

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March Weather Madness:

The March Weather Madness continues this week. Let’s begin with this mornings radar image:

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Storm #1 will be a swing and a miss in KC

The first storm in the series of six storm systems will swing and miss over KC. Snow and rain was spreading southeast in a band over Nebraska and Iowa, while a few thunderstorms are isolated over southwest Missouri. This first storm will leave KC dry through Wednesday.

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Storm #2: Thursday – Saturday

This second storm should be a home run but may end up being a swing and a miss for strike 2, or possibly a bunt single.  This is a storm that will get caught under another ridge. The ridge is due north of the storm over southern Canada. This strong storm system should be and still could be very wet in our area. The models are keeping rainfall totals low for now.  This latest data does provide some hope for more than a bunt single on Friday as you can see above. That would be a nice band of showers and thunderstorms.

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Then, a massive dry slot is forecast to move in as you can see below:

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This big slow moving storm has that good chance of rain Friday, then maybe a few more interesting bands of showers and thunderstorms. This storm likely will produce 1/2″ of rain or more. Remember, the wettest day of the past 166 days was the “non ice” ice storm from mid January when we had 0.67″.

Then, there are storm systems 3, 4, 5, and 6 to follow in this really fascinating weather pattern. Like last year, we have a huge iceberg to break through. Will we break the ice in these next two weeks?

Have a great day! Our weather team will go over all of this on 41 Action News today and tonight!

Gary

Another 80 Degree Day & Lake Tahoe Fills Up

Good morning bloggers,

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Spring began this morning with lightning and thunder over Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio while Kansas City continues to be dry.  The day started with a very rare March MCS tracking through The Ohio Valley this morning. This is the type of feature we may see in May or June, definitely not March. Kansas City shattered the record high with the warmest late March day in recorded history in many locations near KC. The high was 87 degrees. I am the KSHB, NBC affiliate in KC’s meteorologist, and I thought the warm front would jump north of KC because of our knowledge of the cycling pattern. I did not forecast 87. I thought that was possible, but wow! What caused this? Global Climate Change? No! The cycling pattern we are in as described by the LRC is the direct cause!

This year’s LRC:

  • The pattern set up between October 1st and November 30th
  • The pattern set up into a cycle length of between 56 and 61 days, centered on 58.5 days
  • A huge long term long-wave ridge was the major feature over the USA centered near the Missouri River Valley. This mean ridge will end up resulting in a summer that will be dominated by a major heat wave and drought. This is not a 100% certainty, but Weather2020 has had this forecast of this happening since December. This is a forecast unheard of in any other forecast method. The LRC provides this huge insight. The chance is 85%. This is an 85% chance of a major heat wave and drought. There is a 15% chance we are wrong. We are forecasting the future. Other future forecasts are incredible if they are accurate 25% of the time. We have raised the bar very high!
  • The northeast will continue to have wet storms, and slightly cooler air this summer

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Lake Tahoe: This is incredible

An incredible thing has been happening in this year’s cycling pattern as described by the LRC. Weather2020 and KSHB-TV Have been sharing this breakthrough technology with you for 15 years now. I found that the weather pattern was cycling regularly in the 1980s. I know it is taking half of my lifetime to get this new technology accepted. It will happen while I am alive. I am convinced, but we have more work to do. This example of Lake Tahoe is yet another showcase of the LRC. This was a weak La Niña winter. The other forecasts for this past winter season, this past rainy season out west was for DRY! Yes, the drought was supposed to continue, but what happened? The exact opposite.

The depressing scene of boat docks sitting high and dry on wide beaches around Lake Tahoe will likely be a fleeting memory this summer. Winter’s unrelenting storms built up a substantial Sierra snowpack and are expected to fill the lake for the first time in 11 years. Many low-lying areas that were exposed when the lake level was declining during the drought will be inundated with water. The docks will be bobbing in crystal blue waters once again.

Straddling the California–Nevada border, Tahoe is the sixth largest lake in the United States, an outdoor playground for people around the world, and the main water source for the Reno-Sparks, Nevada, area. The renowned ecological wonder is fed by 63 tributaries that drain 505 square miles known as the Lake Tahoe Watershed. With a vast surface area of 191 square miles, Tahoe requires an immense amount of water to fill, especially because roughly 100 billion gallons of water evaporates annually.

Lake Tahoe’s natural rim is at 6,223 feet above sea level. The lake can store an additional 6.1 feet in its reservoir and climbs up to 6,229 feet at full capacity, its legal maximum limit. The only outlet, a dam at Tahoe City, regulates the upper 6.1 feet above the low water mark, and this winter water is being released into the Truckee River as billions of gallons flow into the lake.

Tahoe’s water level reached 6,226.84 feet on Wednesday, and the lake needs some 88 billion gallons of water to jump up the 2.26 feet required to be completely full. That’s the equivalent of filling more than 133,000 Olympic-size swimming pools.

“We feel really good right now,” said U.S. District Court Water Master Chad Blanchard. “We’re releasing 500 cubic feet of water per second, and trying to manage the elevation. The elevation has been flat for a couple weeks, but we don’t want to get too high because we have two-and-a-quarter feet of room. But we could still have as much as four to five feet of water to come into the lake in next five months. It’s a balancing act. We have to fill, but we don’t want to overfill. And the forecasts we get are just forecasts. They’re not perfect.”

If Tahoe reaches full capacity, as Blanchard expects the lake will do at the end of July, it would see its largest physical rise in recorded history going back to 1900.

Since the start of the rainy season on October 1, the lake level has shot up 4.5 feet. If the lake fills, it will rise a total of 6.5 feet, beating the 1995 record when it jumped up six feet in a single season, which runs Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.

This is a huge milestone for a body of water that flirted with record-low levels amid a five-year drought. At the same time last year, the lake level was a full 4.19 feet lower. This was discouraging in an El Niño year when storms expected to bring record-breaking snow and rain delivered only average precipitation, filling some reservoirs but making only a small dent in California’s drought conditions overall.

This year is telling a different story as storms ceaselessly battered the Sierra Nevada in January and February. The Lake Tahoe Basin received 10 more inches of precipitation than any year in recorded history, going back to 1910. Because Tahoe has a large surface area, the precipitation alone provides a significant rise.

And then there’s the Sierra Nevada snowpack. The range is piled high with the most snow it has seen in decades, and a recent survey on March 1 indicated the snowpack is 185 percent of average. As the weather warms, this snow will melt and pour billions of gallons of water into the rising lake.

And perhaps the most significant milestone is that the drought will be considered over in the Tahoe area.

“In the Truckee basin, drought is defined as water storage in Lake Tahoe,” Blanchard said. “Tahoe is the defining factor. If we’re full at Tahoe, the drought is over. Typically, we can get three year’s worth of water from the reservoir part. Of course, that could vary in some freak extreme.”

This Week’s Pattern:

Storm #1: This system will pass by between now and Tuesday night.

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This forecast map above shows a system coming into California, which is storm #2, and a weak system moving through the ridge in the middle of the nation. There are two bands of precipitation with this first storm, and they both may miss Kansas City. A cold high pressure area at the surface will be tracking across southern Canada and a cold early spring air mass will spread southeast.

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Storm #2 is more fascinating. This next surface forecast shows a surface low over northwest Oklahoma on Friday evening. Can you see the two little circles in the isobars near the Missouri/Arkansas border? I am still trying to figure out if that feature is real or not, but if it is it likely shows where the strongest thunderstorms will form, and this could leave Kansas City high and dry again. This set up will likely look quite different as we get a few days closer, so let’s not over analyze at the moment.

Welcome to spring! Spring began early this morning and the battle between winter and spring will continue for a few more weeks. Spring is quite obviously beginning to win these battles! Have a great day and watch 41 Action News tonight as we look into these next few storm systems.

Gary

Several Rain Chances

Good Sunday,

Well, we need the rain, and the first of several rain chances this week is occurring today.  The rain today is a symbol of the kind of rain we will be seeing this week with coverage and amounts a concern.

SUNDAY 7 AM WEATHER TRACK RADAR: You can see the few downpours.  Hopefully your yard or farm experiences one of these downpours.  Amounts will be a trace-.10″, but it is better than nothing, I guess.  This rain activity is along the leading edge of a surge of warm air.  The very warm air will make it only so far east.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This is not an easy forecast as you can see the showers around here this morning will be located across eastern Missouri where some cities will see temperatures in the 40s.  At the same time it will be dry, windy and hot in western Kansas with highs around 90°.  The state line is the dividing line between 80s and 50s, 60s and 70s.  We are going for a high at KCI of 80°, but it could easily be in the low 70s as the 80° line stops to the west, or it could be 83° at KCI if the 80° line moves further east.  It is a game of inches and a tough forecast.  But, it will be a nice day one way or the other, just a bit windy.

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MONDAY (THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING):  Spring begins at 5:29 AM and it will be a very nice day with a partly cloudy sky, light wind and highs in the 70s.  A cold front to the north will make the first full day of Spring feel like winter.

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TUESDAY (TEMPERATURES): This is going to be a cloudy, windy and colder day with temperatures stuck in the 40s to near 50° as the 80s shift south.  What about rain?  See the next map.

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TUESDAY (PRECIPITATION): There will be a few rain showers with, yes a few snowflakes possible in southern Iowa.  Now, once again rainfall amounts will be paltry, a trace-.20″.

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RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 7TH: It has really dried out as we march to being 8″ below average rainfall.  So, we need several widespread rainfall events as we head into Spring.

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RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS:  So, we have the rain chances today, Tuesday and Thursday-Friday.  This is the total rainfall forecast for all of these events.  This is not going to cut it.  Hopefully, before the month ends we can manage a decent rain event.  There are a series of systems to track, but one has to step out of character to bring the beneficial rain.

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Have a great week.

Jeff

In Search of Rain

Good Saturday,

It was a beautiful sunrise with the cirrus and altocumulus clouds.

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We are in for a nice end of winter day with a mostly sunny sky and highs in the low 60s.  The forecast for Sunday becomes tricky as a warm front approaches.  Highs will range from near 90° in western Kansas to 40s in eastern Missouri.  We are in between, and going for a high in the 70s, but 50s will not be too far east, so any slower on the warm front then our high will be in the 60s.  There may be a few showers and thunderstorms later tonight and early Sunday, but the coverage will be rather low.  We need a widespread rain event and there are a series of storm systems to track the next two weeks, but we have concerns that they will not bring significant widespread rainfall.  Hopefully, one of the storm systems will step out of character.

Click on the video below for a detailed look at the weather.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff

The Great Kansas City Snow Drought

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

While New York City is about to get hit again this weekend with up to 5 inches of snow, Kansas City has had less than 5″ of snow the entire winter. The weather pattern is cycling as described by the LRC. In our winter forecast, made four months ago, we discussed one of the main features that would influence the pattern: The Ridge (Called a long term long-wave ridge). You can see it here from our winter forecast. On the second map you can see how it likely was the main reason why snowfall totals have been so low:

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If you are under this ridge, then there is not only a concern for a dry spring, but for a growing drought and a very hot summer ahead of us.
The snowfall totals under the ridge are way below average at all of these locations
Storm systems have been deflected and weakened by this big ridge and the cities north of the ridge have had most of the snow as the storm systems would go up and over, or break up as they moved through this huge feature
Sometimes these ridges are weak and hard to see. This years ridge has been quite obvious. Weather2020 began the discussion of its influences in November and the impacts continue as spring is approaching
Seasonal Snowfall:

  • Kansas City: 4.9″ (Average is 17.8″ by now)
  • Wichita, KS: 2.0″ (Average is 13.6″ by now)
  • Oklahoma City: 2.1″ (Average is 7.2″)
  • Omaha, NE: 11.4″ (Average is 23.5″)
  • Des Moines, IA: 13.3″ (Average is 31.5″)
  • St. Louis, MO: 3.1″ (Average is 16.5″)
  • Dodge City, KS: 5.0″ (Average 17.5″)
  • Denver, CO: 21.1″ (Average 32.3″)
  • Bismarck, ND: 71.1″ (Average 41.2″)
  • Joplin, MO: 2.5″ (Average is 16.5″)
  • Green Bay, WI: 51.5″ (Average is 46.0″)

Look at “the ridge” forming once again in the next two days:

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Now, compare this forecast map above valid Saturday to exactly 118 days ago (59 day cycle times 2):

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What do you think of this comparison? The incredible cycling weather pattern is consistent and this has happened while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has changed phases from a growing weak La Niña to neutral conditions.

This ridge will lead to an 85% chance that there will be below to way below average rainfall and a growing drought, and it will also lead to that same 85% chance of a major heat wave this summer.

So, what is next? As discussed in yesterdays video, there will be three to four storm systems between now and April 1st that will track through the ridge. One or two of these may become strong, but the ridge will still affect these systems. Take a look at the latest European Model rainfall totals for the plains during the next ten days from Eurowx.com:

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The storm systems are also showing up on this model, but something went “wrong” with each system and they would move by dry in the KS/OK vicinity, but produce north and southeast of our area. Last year we would find the wettest models and they would sometimes verify. Until we see any of these systems produce, we have to lean in the drier direction.

Have a great Thursday and you can always join the Weather2020.com blog and get involved in our conversation about this cycling pattern and what it means for our spring and summer.

Gary

Snow and Major Warm Up

Good Tuesday,

The snow band we have been talking about arrived this morning and will exit early this afternoon.  The most accumulation is from Olathe to Overland Park south and west.  The rest of the city will see a dusting.  Most surfaces are wet, but decks, bridges and overpasses will be slick as temperatures are in the 20s.  The March sun angle is helping with the rest of the paved surfaces.  If there is any moisture left over after sunset, black ice on all surfaces could be an issue as lows drop back to the low 20s tonight..

Here is the accumulation forecast, mainly on grassy surfaces.

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A huge warm up is around the corner as the 60s return by Thursday!

Click on the video below for a more in depth look at this March Weather Madness.

Jeff