A Very Cold Start To November & A Chance Of Saturday Night Snow

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service Tweeted this out yesterday, “There have only been 3 times in KC’s 131-year history that we have had 3 measurable snow events by the 12th of November.  1898, 1992 and 2018!”.   How much snow fell in the other two winters before now?  I just checked and 38.8″ fell in the 1898-1899 winter, and 34.4″ of snow fell in the 1992-1993 winter season.  In looking and remembering the winter season of 1992-1993, my first year in KC, there was one very big storm around November 25th that year and it looked like it was going to produce a record breaking snow in KC, and it didn’t quite do it here as we were left with just an inch or so. It did produce a big snow over southwest Kansas, however.  Let’s be on the lookout for a chance of a late November storm this year.  The St. Louis area has already had a 5 to 10 inch snowfall.  For Kansas City we have gone almost five years since we even had 3″ in one storm.  This streak will end this year.

This weekend:

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Some of the models have a strip of snow forming near KC Saturday evening.  There will be a band of thick moisture moving across our area tomorrow evening into Sunday morning. There is some weak rising motion forecast to develop and this may be strong enough to produce a thin band of snow.  If it is a bit stronger, then 1″ to 2″ could accumulate in this small area.  If it is just a bit weaker on the lifting, then it will just be a band of thick clouds. We have had a history of these already this season, so I lean slightly in the direction of there being a band of snow developing and making it to KC.  I had a 30% chance on my weathercast last night, and I will wait on today’s data before upping the chance a bit, or taking it out.

A Very Cold Start To November:

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As you can see above, we are now 11.8° below average during the first half of November.  We are predicting a colder winter season ahead. Now let’s see if we will break that streak of no 3″ snowstorms before Christmas.  Here is the winter forecast temperature anomalies:

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Have a great day. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great weekend. We will be monitoring any snow development closely on Saturday.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog!

Gary

Winter Forecast 2018-2019

Good morning bloggers,

Our winter forecast will be presented on 41 Action News (KSHB.COM) tonight at 10 PM.  Here is the link to our story that was just posted online:  Winter Weather Forecast On KSHB.com  And, here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Join the weather conversation at Weather2020.com

Here are a couple of graphics from our winter forecast that airs tonight:

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This weekends weather:

An upper level disturbance will be developing and heading out over the plains from the northern Rocky Mountains this weekend.  There is a chance of a band of accumulating snow late Saturday night and Sunday morning.  A couple of the models have been consistent with this small snowfall accumulation event over the weekend, while others have just a few clouds.  Here is the European Model snowfall prediction from last night, ending Sunday morning:

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The pattern continues to set up according to the LRC. This type of system has happened a few times already.  Will we get another dusting to 2 inch snow event and add onto our 2″ early season total? We will discuss more tomorrow. Today, let’s discuss the winter forecast. Do you think we will have less than 10″ for the fourth year in a row, or will it reach 26″ as is my prediction for the season.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Snow Is In The Forecast Again!

Good morning bloggers,

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The winter forecast will be coming out on Thursday night.  We have already made a few conclusions, and then there is still a lot more we will learn in the coming weeks.  Let’s continue our discussion later in the week.  In the mean time look at what is forecast to happen later tonight:

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An upper low is forming due south of Kansas City right now, and it is beginning to produce a winter storm. St. Louis is the target tonight. This storm is missing KC, and who is sad that it seems we are missing this storm. We actually already got hit by the lead wave of this system. Tonights storm is what was hanging back, reorganizing, and now ejecting out and speeding up, heading into the northeastern United States.  This is a good sign for winter, that perhaps we won’t be saying that KC is in the wrong spot again for the fifth year in a row.  There are some models that show snow on Saturday night into Sunday morning, while some models barely show anything but a cold blast.  I lean towards the snowier solutions at this moment,  and last night on the air I went up to a 50% chance of some snow from this system.  The European model and Canadian model show a 1 to 2 inch band.   The GFS models were showing something similar, and this is what I posted below. The latest model runs overnight backed off on this snow prediction, so let’s see how this trends today.

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In the past nine winters Kansas City has had anywhere from 3.9″ of snow to as much as 44″. There were really four big winters and five very small winters when it comes to snowfall as you can see below.  We will discuss much more later this week after we issue our winter forecast Thursday night at 10 PM.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog by clicking here and join in the conversation:  Weather2020 Blog

Have a great Wednesday!  The winter forecast special is being taped today, so we will be quite busy.  The winter forecast special will air on the 27th, while the winter forecast will come out tomorrow.

Gary

Winter Forecast In Two Days

Good morning bloggers,

The Snowflake Contest ended at 10:33 AM on the Plaza.  Our weather team measured the one inch, and than another half inch fell in the next hour as a band of snow was nearly stationary right over Kansas City.  This puts the Plaza up to 1.8″ this season already, while a few spots south of KC are over 5″ for the season thus far.  KCI Airport had 0.5″, and the total now for the season is 2.0″ as our official number.  What a great beginning to the season as it has already snowed on five different days, and four of them came in the previous five days (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday). Wow!  Not a bad start. Our winter forecast will be airing on 41 Action News Thursday night at 10 PM.

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There is actually a chance of another small snowfall with this developing pattern. Right now, a very positively tilted storm is forming south of KC, and on the upper right map you can see it organize into a strong upper level storm that may bring some snow to eastern Missouri early Thursday.  There are many other developments in this pattern that we are monitoring closely as well and on Saturday evening a system may be able to produce this below:

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A quick blog today.  Yesterday about wiped me out. I had no sleep. I was up monitoring for the very disturbance that brought us our snowfall yesterday.  I had anticipated that it would happen, and I was up looking for the feature that I thought could bring us yesterdays snow. It wasn’t until around 4 AM when I finally saw the system spin out of southern KS and it produced. I was pleased with the results, and it was a fun weather day.

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It will be sunny today. Have a great Tuesday and we will look ahead tonight on 41 Action News.

Gary

A Snowy Morning In Kansas City

Good morning bloggers,

I was up all night monitoring this interesting development, and the snow has finally made it all the way up to I-70 and it is still expanding a bit farther north.  This time, temperatures are below freezing and it will stick to just about everything.  The road temperatures were just below 32 degrees, so this may cause some slick driving conditions for the morning rush hour.

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I drew in the likely northern edge for accumulations.  Areas to the south will likely approach 2″ of snow, while the KC metro will range from a dusting to 2″ of snow possible.  This will be a quick blog this morning until we get through the morning hours.  Watch 41 Action News for more, and check my Facebook and Twitter feeds for quick updates, or in the blog comments at Weather2020.com.

And, then look at the radar an hour and fifteen minutes later, at 7:15 AM:

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The snow was increasing early this morning in response to a wave of energy breaking off of the developing storm system.  The storm is shearing out and the snow will fall apart this afternoon.  This means we will get around six more hours of snow first.  The snowflake contest may end this morning.

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Have a great start to Monday and provide yourself with some extra time this morning for travel.  Our winter forecast will be issued Thursday night on 41 Action News.

Gary