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The Same Things Just Keep Happening

Good morning bloggers,

The drought ended over most of the western half of Kansas this summer down to Amarillo. This is pretty amazing when you think how dry it was out there as we moved into the late spring months.  Thunderstorm complexes tracked repeatedly over that region, and somehow the drought expanded and worsened farther east near Kansas City.  It has been one of the more frustrating weather patterns to describe. The good news:  A new pattern will set up in less than two weeks.

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The risk of severe weather today will be shifting over the northeastern USA:

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Today’s Weather Video:

The European Model, that had KC in the heavy rain, has also shifted away.  Maybe something different will happen Sunday night into Monday, but we have been through this every single time from our winter storms, to our spring storms, and now through our summer storms. There have been so many chances.

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Have a great day!

Gary

Thunderstorms Tonight?

Good morning bloggers,

There is a weak front that is not very well defined tracking southeast across the plains this morning. There is a much stronger summer cold front forecast to develop and approach the area later this weekend.  These two systems have my attention today, so let’s discuss these set ups.  The severe weather risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center has been pushed farther south.

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There is no well defined front. This is the first problem with forecasting any areas where severe thunderstorms will form.  And, this has been a consistent “problem” for storm chasers in our region all year long in this cycling pattern.  The 6 PM map is platted below. Where is the front?  I will be trying to find it later today on 41 Action News during our 4, 5, and 6 PM newscasts. By the 6:30 Pm newscast a few thunderstorms may begin forming near the frontal zone.

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The front is still ill defined at 10 PM, but the HRRR shows thunderstorm development near KC and south of KC by late evening:

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The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season.  I plotted this 7 AM Monday forecast map from the latest GFS model below.  A surface cyclone is forecast to develop over Missouri by Monday. As this moves by, a pretty nice north to northwest wind will develop by Monday evening, and this will push drier air our way and allow morning lows to possibly drop deeper into the 50s.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday as this system moves by.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. We are less than two months away from having a new LRC to discuss. I can’t wait!  Have a great day.

Gary

More Hits Than Misses This Time

Good morning bloggers,

A swirling upper level summer storm system has moved by and weakened this morning. This system helped produce rather wide spread rainfall amounts in the 0.10″ to 2.50″ range near KC, with a bulls eye of close to 7″ as estimated on the radar network shown below:

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Now, look closely.  The areas with no colors shaded in are the areas that likely had not even 0.01″ of rain.   Yes, there were still some areas that got missed again.  I ended up with 0.93″ of rain for the entire total from three different bands of rain and thunderstorms.  The next good chance is showing up Thursday night:

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The weather pattern is a summer version of this years LRC.  The cycling pattern continues, the one that set up last fall, and it will continue through the end of September before the new pattern will be welcome by most of us with an open heart in October.  The map above shows the 500 mb forecast, around 18,000 feet above us, valid Thursday night.  There is another disturbance heading southeast over the central plains extending northeast into the Great Lakes region.  This disturbance will track overhead Thursday night and it will produce thunderstorms, and once again they will be hit and miss.

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Let’s see how this sets up in the next two days.  We are still underneath the cold pool aloft from the upper level storm that tracked over the plains yesterday. There may be enough instability for a few showers and thunderstorms today.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

The Same Pattern For Around 50 More Days

Good morning bloggers,

The same pattern continues. A few of the bloggers wondered yesterday about the LRC and, unfortunately, I must inform everyone that we are in the same pattern and in the seventh LRC cycle. There will be a beginning of the eighth and final cycle of this years pattern, and then we will say goodbye to what I would consider the worst pattern in this long stretch of bad patterns for the Kansas City region.  This pattern produced a whopping 7 inches of snow this winter in around a dozen snowfalls, for an average of around 1/2″ per snowfall which is beyond ridiculous.  This pattern produced a drought that expanded over KC, and then got wiped out over parts of Kansas while we experienced it worsening, even as of today.  The good news:  A new and unique pattern, one that has never happened before (which is what unique means), will set up in early October. Oh, it will evolve slowly in the next six to seven weeks, but this horrible pattern that we have been in will continue until the new pattern takes over.  I call it a horrible pattern for many reasons. For me, the biggest reason is that, as your meteorologist in KC, I have the tough task of explaining over and over again why things are missing us. I would much rather, at least once in a while, have the much more exciting explanation of why things are actually happening. Even in October when we did get some heavier rain, that rain missed many areas in our viewing area.  I will welcome the end of this pattern. There is hope for next winter as there are signs of a weak to moderate El Niño developing.  But, remember El Niño and La Niña are just one influence on the much bigger picture, the LRC.  Now, just be patient as we get through these next few weeks.

This storm system is quite similar to the one that tracked northeast from Kansas into Nebraska in late June.  That storm produced a few heavy thunderstorms, and this one is producing some heavy rain and thunderstorms.

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The storm in the east has produced wide spread torrential rainfall as they have had some significant flooding once again. This storm, that will be moving over the Iowa/Nebraska border later today, as you can see above, will create some unstable conditions this afternoon and evening.  Some of the latest higher resolution short range models have a few heavy thunderstorms forming near KC this afternoon.  So, there is hope that we will add to the very low rainfall totals that have added up thus far. One thing about this years LRC that is so frustrating; the fact that we have no lack of chances of rain and snow. It is just another fact that the weakest parts of these systems tend to affect our area.

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This picture above shows my rain gauge as of 7:30 AM. About .25″ of that fell in yesterday afternoons thunderstorm. The evening activity was spotty, and only affected a small percentage of our viewing area. This mornings rains were heavier way up north. Let’s see what happens later today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  One band of rain moving north, and this will rotate around the main storm. A second and third round of showers and thunderstorms will be likely later in the day and tonight.  These other two rounds will still be hit and miss.  High: near 80°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Click on the blog over at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation as we share in this weather experience.  Have a great day!

Gary

0.42″ In Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

I am back in KC and the weather pattern continues to be the same one that set up last October.  Some subtle differences may begin to show up, however, as the new LRC is just 8 weeks away from beginning.  The jet stream has reached its weakest average strength and farthest north position, and it will begin strengthening as fall approaches.  Unfortunately, we are still in the same pattern that set up last October, and the same things continue to happen over and over again.  I titled the blog 0.42″ in two weeks, because that is how much rain was in my rain gauge after two weeks away.  Hawaii was fantastic, relaxing, and fun. And, Hurricane Hector passed by south of the islands and the surf was up.

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Take a look at these surfers navigating the higher surf, one of them in the air as I snapped this picture.  We experienced many rainbows too.

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Now, back to our weather. Take a look at the rainfall total from the latest HRRR that just came out. This is the rainfall total ending at 10 AM Tuesday:

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There is an upper level storm approaching. And, you can see it in the swirl of forecast rainfall totals over Kansas, west of KC.  But, look at the low totals near KC.  Are we really going to try to have to explain how many areas got missed again? There is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms later today, and I am hoping this latest HRRR forecast model is just wrong.

Have a great day. Let me get back into the swing of things, and we will look deeper into this pattern tonight on 41 Action News, and in the blogs this week.  I am relaxed, ready to get back to work, and hopefully not be frustrated by this pattern. We need more rain, but it won’t be shocking if it misses many areas once again.

Gary

Showers of Meteors and Rain

Good Sunday bloggers,

Tonight is the peak of the Perseid Meteor shower and we should have good viewing as the sky will be clear. However, smoke could be an issue. Here are the details on the meteor shower.

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Now, here are the details on the showers of rain, based on the new data. The good  news is that all of the computer models still suggest a decent widespread rain event from Maryville to Marshall, MO west to Pleasanton and Emporia, KS. Could this still go wrong? Oh yea. It won’t be 100% until we see the white’s of it’s eyes!

SUNDAY: Today will be hazy, hot and humid as we still have plenty of smoke in the sky. It will be a great day to head to the pool and the best day of the week for the pool. This is good news because that means rain and clouds are in the forecast.

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TONIGHT: The weather looks good for meteor viewing, but smoke may be an issue.

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MONDAY MORNING: It will be dry and mild in our area as rain and thunderstorms occur across much of Oklahoma and Texas.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: A lead wave may break off from the main system and track north. Rain may make it to KC 12-2 PM. It will be in the 70s where it is raining and near 90° where it is not raining. This first wave may not make it much farther north than shown below. Yes, missing northern Missouri. But, since the main system is yet to arrive, and this is not a one shot deal, there will be more rain and thunderstorms making a run at our parched area Monday night and Tuesday.

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TUESDAY: This looks like the day where all locations get some decent rain and thunderstorms as the system tracks west to east across our region. Highs will be 75°-85°, depending on rain.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY: We are a day later and the data is pretty consistent. This is good news, but we still, as I said above, need to see the white’s of its eyes! Can you imagine this type of a rainfall event? It has been a very long time.

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Here is a wider view of the rainfall forecast. It extends south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

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Take a look at the rainfall forecast above. Now take a look at the most recent drought monitor. The rain will be falling over some really dry areas. This is great news! Now, let’s hope it all pans out.

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Have a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Hazy Sky and Increasing Rain Chances

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are following two main weather events today. The first is the haze in the sky and the second is the chance of rain early next week.

The haze is smoke from the wildfires in California combined with smoke from fires in western Canada.

Here is a visible satellite image from 7 PM Friday. The fuzzy items are clearly smoke in the sky. You can see the monsoon thunderstorms embedded in the smoke.

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Here is a look at the satellite from 7 PM Friday in the middle of the USA. You can see the smoke, rather thick, from northwest Kansas to Minnesota. Minneapolis had air quality warnings.

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How is that smoke from western North America getting to the middle of the USA? The image below shows the explanation. It is the upper level flow. An anticyclone, also called and upper level high or “heat wave creating machine”, is located over the northern Rockies. The flow around the high is clockwise. So, the smoke tracks from the western USA, north to western Canada where it combines with more smoke from the wildfires in western Canada. The smoke then turns east into central Canada then south into the northern USA. The flow keeps the smoke drifting south into Kansas and Missouri. This flow will persist all weekend.

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Where is the smoke Saturday morning? It was located from northern Kansas to northern Missouri, northward into Canada. It does not look as thick, since the satellite is not picking it up as well due to the sun not being high enough in the sky. It is drifting south about 10-20 miles per hour and will arrive in KC by afternoon. It will likely be around all weekend, so this evening the sunset may have an interesting reddish hue.

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Now lets turn our attention to the chance of rain. The main jet stream is flowing well to the north across Canada, but does dip south over the eastern USA. The systems that brought our scattered downpours Thursday and Friday drifted south and are combining to form an upper low over Texas.

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The upper low will become more defined Sunday as it drifts northwest. There will be northward drifting areas of rain and thunderstorms across southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

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The upper low on Monday is forecast to be in Kansas, by all models. This would likely bring a larger area of rain and thunderstorms to eastern Kansas and western Missouri Monday into Tuesday.

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This is the rainfall forecast for today through Tuesday. The rain in our area does not start until Monday, but my goodness, this is a sight for sore eyes.

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When we zoom in you can see mostly consistent rainfall totals from Maryville, MO to Pleasanton, KS, east to Sedalia, MO and west to Emporia, KS.

We have had rainfall events where all locations get rain this season. But, some get 0.01″, 0.50″, 2.00″-4.00″ and everything in between. Also, the heavier amounts are in the minority. This is different, where all locations receive at least 0.40″-0.50″.

If this pans out, it will not end the drought, it will not even dent the drought, but is is a step in the right direction. It would need to be followed by more events. There actually are more chances next week, but let’s just get this first one under our belt.  This is still a slam dunk. As we know it is 36-48 hours away. So, we will check in Sunday and hope the data remains consistent.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

Better Rain Chances Next Week…We Shall See

Good Friday bloggers,

We had a few thunderstorms on Thursday and we will have a few around today, especially south of I-70. The weekend weather will be bad for the drought, but good for the pool. As we go through the weekend we will be tracking a system forming in the southern Plains. This system will head north next week and attempt to bring us some rain.

Here is the weekend forecast. Now let’s see what potential we have for rain next week.

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FRIDAY: Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. A few thunderstorms will form along and south of I-70 after 1-2 PM. This data has them west of Warrensburg to west of Clinton. They could form just about anywhere, but mostly south of I-70. Temperatures will drop to the 70s if you get under one of these downpours. If you have outdoor plans this evening, such as the Royals-Cardinals game, the weather looks very good with temperatures dropping from the 80s to 70s as any thunderstorms drift south and away.

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SATURDAY: It will be a nice summer day with sunshine, light winds and highs around 90°. It is a great day to head to the pool.

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SUNDAY: It will be dry with lows 65°-70°, highs around 90° along with high clouds around here. Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, will be occurring across southern Oklahoma and Texas as a storm system forms down there. This storm system is due in part to the system that dropped south over us on Thursday. Also, a few thunderstorms may form in the afternoon across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

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MONDAY: The storm system will head north and a nice area of rain and thunderstorms will likely affect most of Kansas and Oklahoma. Before we get even remotely excited that this will bring widespread rain to our drought stricken areas, keep in mind these areas below have seen decent rain this summer. Then, as the rain tracks into eastern Kansas and western Missouri it becomes scattered or falls apart. The rain will most likely become scattered as it moves in later Monday into Tuesday. Could it be a widespread event? Sure. Have we asked this question before? Sure. Have we had a widespread event during the spring and summer? NO. We will watch this one over the weekend and see how the data trends, but we know the most likely scenario.

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After the system exits we will go into northwest flow, which means more chances of thunderstorms. LOL.

Have a great weekend and let’s hope this next rain chance steps out of the box.

Jeff Penner

Hurricane Hector, The Mahomes Era Begins, Tailgating T-Storms?

Good afternoon bloggers,

First of all I am still in Hawaii. This was my first two week vacation in 33 years; in other words, the first two week vacation since I started my career. Yes, I am relaxed, and ready to come back to KC tomorrow. But, first Hurricane Hector is almost due south of me, take a look:

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Hector iis influencing Hawaii with high surf, as I am watching surfers deal with 10 to 12 foot waves.  And, we are now in the circulation of the storm and there has been an influence that I notice strongly, but I am not sure if anyone else around me is noticing. The clouds are so different today, with some interesting showers forming.  I am loving it.

Okay, let’s look at early next week before I get to today.  Look at the European Model solution for late Tuesday:

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The white areas next to the red show 1 to 2 inches of rain from a slow moving upper low that will spin by.  The Euro also showed NOTHING for today. Take a look at the 3:30 PM radar:

 

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These thunderstorms were moving south, so this likely means it will be dry for tailgating, but I am not there, so I am not able to look outside, so let me know.  Rule #1 of forecasting is always look outside, because you never know.

I will be back at work Monday. There has been a lot going on and I should come back refreshed and ready to go, until my next vacation in a week……….just kidding.

Have a great evening. Let me know how Mahomes looks in this first preseason game as our new leader. Thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020.com site to join in the conversation.

Garyy

Weird System to Watch

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather forecast through Monday is not too difficult. Partly to mostly sunny, highs around 90, lows 65-70 with one slight chance of rain. The one chance is Friday as a weak cold front drifts south.

The forecast for next Tuesday-Thursday is a bit more interesting as we will track two features. The first one is a weird system forming in the southwest Plains and the second is a cold front with a system coming in from the northwest.

Today we had a very weak disturbance drift south and it generated some very small, pulsing downpours in eastern Kansas. They are drifting south and may last until 10 PM. These may be the world’s smallest thunderstorms.

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The next chance for a few thunderstorms is on Friday as a weak cold front drifts south. I may have been generous in calling this a cold front.  It is more likely a surface trough as there is really no temperature change behind this alleged front.

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The feature that has a chance to bring us our next chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is a weird upper low forming in the southwest Plains over the weekend. This data is from the 18Z NAM, and as I am writing this blog, the 18Z GFS is showing this feature develop over the weekend. Next Tuesday-Thursday we will see this low head northeast bringing an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. If it wanted to, it could be a widespread rain event. But, we know better. The only way we go for a widespread event is if we see evidence of it forming the day of the chance of rain. This is still the same ridiculous weather pattern.

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Have a great night and we will see how the new data trends with this next, weird system.

Jeff Penner