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The LRC Produces For The Fifth Time

Good morning bloggers,

What we experienced last night was pretty fascinating to watch unfold.  I was on the air at 6 PM explaining what would happen, and then it followed what I expected to develop.  On the air I explained, “the cold front will pass through Kansas City, and then it will interact with a storm aloft moving our way from the southwest. Thunderstorms will develop and then expand north forming into a complex of rain and thunderstorms.  The rain may extend to just north of I-70 with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible farther south”.  It is exactly what happened. How did I know?  The LRC!

Midnight Radar (November 18, 2019):

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Look at the little cure of thunderstorms and rain south of Wichita, KS.  That is the little upper level low that ended up perfectly placed to create this wide band of heavy rain and thunderstorms. And, this looked strikingly similar to the snow pattern on January 12th, and November 25th.  As Gary England said 10 years ago, “Lezak, I see it, It’s The Same But Different”.

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The dip in the upper flow last night at 1 AM shown on the Cycle 5 map is directly related to the upper level disturbance that created the conditions for the blizzard in November, the January 12th snowstorm, and all previous cycles of this years pattern.

So, what is next?  Remember Michael?  Major Hurricane Michael?  In October Michael moved inland and produced a few tornadoes across the deep south into the southeast coastal region around Savannah, GA.  This part of the pattern has produced tornadoes and severe weather in each LRC Cycle near eastern Georgia and the southeast.  Here is a look at the forecast for 1 PM tomorrow:

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And, this is no coincidence!  Take a look at the risks the next two days, with Savannah right smack down the middle of the risk tomorrow. Let’s see what happens:

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For Kansas City, this storm is not done yet.  A disturbance will be intensifying right overhead later this afternoon and evening. There is a chance of a few convective showers, maybe even a thunderstorm later today.  I have the day off, so I will be keeping track of all of this with you.

Saturday is our Severe Weather Day at the Nebraska Furniture Mart. We hope to see you out there around 11 AM. We will be there from 11 AM to 1 PM. Meet our Weather Team, Storm Tracker, and Sunny The Weather Dog!

Have a great day!

Gary

KC Is On The Edge Of This Storm

Good morning bloggers,

There is a large risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the plains, and Kansas City is on the northern edge of this risk.  An upper level storm is forecast to be over western Texas by late this afternoon.  This map below shows the flow aloft around 18,000 feet above us. Look at the closed circle near Lubbock, TX:

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The closed circle is showing where the upper level storm is located. If that would bodily come out into the plains, then a very heavy and wide spread rain event would happen near Kansas City.  The models, however are not holding this system together, and it is predicted to stretch out and this may limit the extent of the area of rain and thunderstorms, and even more likely limit the northern extension of the area of rain. This northern edge of the storm is likely going to be near Kansas City, which makes our weather forecast difficult today.

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I plotted the map below:

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The position of this surface front will be one of the most important factors for where the rain will fall tonight.  If that front is a bit faster, then Kansas City will be left high and dry tonight as the thunderstorms will be developing near the front and growing as they gradually shift south and east.  If the front is a bit farther north than this position, the KC could have 3″ of rain.  3″ of rain is likely near where the front is located at 8:30 PM. This will be the most important parameter of this storm that we will be monitoring closely. When I am on at 5 and 6 PM tonight we should be able to narrow down where the heavy rain will hit, and where it will miss.

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The NAM model last night had this prediction, which did have KC in the thunderstorms, with the northern edge rather close.  There is a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially when the thunderstorms first form. Large hail is possible in that first two hours of development, and then it will transition to a heavy rain event near that front. Farther south the risk is a bit higher.

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This is a three day severe weather risk storm, as you can see the risks shifting east over the next two days:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

Today:  Periods of clouds with a high near 78°.  South winds 10-25 mph.  The chance of rain is zero before 4 PM, and then there is an increasing chance of evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely south of I-70 between 5 PM and 10 PM with some severe weather possible.  The chance is lower north of I-70.  1/2″ to 3″ of rain are possible.

Have a great day!

Gary

A Moisture Tongue

Good morning bloggers,

Moisture is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico and it is forming into what meteorologists named “the moisture tongue” many years ago.  The dew points can appear to be in the shape of a tongue, as you can imagine below:

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This is the forecast dew point profile valid tomorrow morning, and then the map below shows how the dewpoints increase with 70°+ dewpoints forecast to surge to near the Red River Valley alone the Texas/Oklahoma border by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This map below shows the surface forecast and I plotted the fronts on there.  Thunderstorms are most likely going to be generated near and just east of these frontal boundaries.

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed this risk out for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and you can see how it fits the pattern I plotted above.

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From the SPC:

A moist air mass will already be in place across the region beneath
   a well-developed EML. Resultant capping should preclude thunderstorm
   development across the region until the afternoon when the
   combination of daytime heating, large-scale ascent, boundary-layer
   mixing and surface convergence act to overcome the convective
   inhibition. Narrowing down the best location for initial development
   is difficult given the prevalence of surface boundaries. Initiation
   is also possible within the open warm sector. Once convective
   initiation occurs, quick and strong updraft development is
   anticipated, with the potential for very large hail (i.e. greater
   than 2" in diameter). Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected
   into the evening as large-scale ascent strengthens and the entire
   system shifts eastward. 

   Primary severe threat is large hail. A tornado threat exists, but
   weakness in the flow between 850 and 700 mb (resulting from the
   preceding shortwave trough and overall positive tilt of the upper
   trough) cast some doubt towards the robustness of low-level
   mesocyclone organization. Damaging wind gusts are also likely,
   particularly later in the period as a convective line organizes
   along the front.

This storm fits the “blizzard part of the LRC” perfectly. And, it is right on schedule and predicted to arrive this week.  This storm is also directly related to the beginning of this years pattern in October; the january 12th nearly one foot snowstorm in KC (11 inches fell in Olathe).  This storm has produced significant precipitation in all four previous cycles.  The fifth LRC cycle begins Wednesday night into Thursday.

Let’s see how this sets up.  I have the rest of the day off, after my radio hit on Sports Radio 810 WHB in a few minutes.  Have a great day, and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Looking Into The Mid-Week Storm

Good morning bloggers

Severe weather season is now underway and we just had an active two days. Take a look at the severe weather reports from Saturday and Sunday:

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There were 33 tornado reports Saturday and then 2 yesterday with mostly wind damage reports on Sunday.  Another storm is approaching and there will be surge of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico:

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60°+ dew points are going to surge into eastern and central Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. The main surface storm is more likely going to form over western Oklahoma with a dry line moving out over southwestern Oklahoma. This will lead to a higher severe weather risk south of KC.  For Kansas City, thunderstorms are likely in this set up with a slight risk of severe weather, and again the main risk will more likely be farther south.  Let’s see how the models trend today. Here is the look from the SPC:

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From The SPC:  As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
   ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
   with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
   development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.  

   Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
   the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
   eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
   eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
   strengthening upper system.

   With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
   advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
   the area by afternoon.  As such, developing storms will likely
   become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
   large hail likely to be the primary severe risk.  Greatest risk for
   the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
   the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
   layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico. 
   Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out.  Convection will continue overnight --
   spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
   should gradually diminish overnight.

Expect a big warm up the next two days.  We will narrow in on these risks later today into Tuesday,  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Snow In Central Missouri & Severe Weather Risks This week

Good morning bloggers,

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This is how the day started here at 41 Action News.  It was snowing from Columbia, MO south to the Lake of the Ozarks. This band of snow has now zipped off to the northeast, and this storm will produce another day of severe weather:

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After this system moves off the east coast, our attention will shift west to the plains as you can see above.  There is a risk of severe weather showing up and we will be monitoring the data closely.  Where will the “triple point” be located. The triple point is where the low pressure center is, and it ties in a dry line, cold front, and warm front into one point, the center of the low.  Storm chasers will be targeting this region later Wednesday afternoon.

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As this risk moves by, there will be an intensifying storm aloft, and it may produce wrap around rain, a cold rain on Thursday.  It has been drying out a bit near KC, so this rain will be welcome.

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I hope everyone has a great Sunday.  I am on the air right now, filling in for Jeff this weekend.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  This mid-week storm is directly related to the blizzard back in November, the snowstorm back in January, and the snowstorm in early March, and also the very wet early October storm. We are about to begin LRC Cycle 5.  Join in the conversation over on Weather2020.com.

Gary

Severe Weather Risk In Louisiana Today

Good morning bloggers,

I am in this morning, and I will be here again on Sunday as Jeff Penner gets the weekend off.  Today is a rather significant weather day and we will look at the risk of severe thunderstorms over the deep south.  And, then we will look into next weeks severe weather risk out over the plains.

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The moderate risk area covers far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi.  From the Storm Prediction Center:  0-3 km storm-relative helicities are forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range supporting strong tornadoes with the more dominant supercells near the axis of the low-level jet.  A potential for long-track tornadoes will be possible and a regional outbreak of tornadoes could occur across parts of the moderate risk area.

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The hatched area means there is at least a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of your location.  This system is tracking far to the south, and this will have an impact on our forecast.  Here was the surface map as we were about to start our newscast this morning:

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Again, since this storm is tracking so far to the south, I have taken out any chance of rain in the KC metro area, and as you can see the best chance is really just out of our viewing area. It may clip Pleasanton, KS to Sedalia, MO tonight or early Sunday.  This means the weather will be great today and tomorrow farther north and west!

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If this storm would have tracked a bit farther north, we would have had that pretty good chance of snow.  Since it is tracking farther south, the chance of snow still exists, but it is a bit lower over eastern Missouri.  Farther west, we will just have some fantastic weather, and it will warm up next week.  Below, you can see the new data coming showing a strong storm system developing around Wednesday night.  This will trigger the beginning of LRC Cycle 5.  We will be tracking this storm over the next few days, as it has the potential to produce significant severe and winter weather over the plains:

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Have a great start to the weekend.  And thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

Kansas City Is On The Edge Of The Weekend Storm

Good morning bloggers,

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While Kansas City has gone from the 80s to a freeze, and another storm is approaching, other city’s like Denver, CO has gone from 80° to 10″ of snow.  This weather pattern is fascinating, and we are about to begin the fifth LRC cycle.  In my video I say cycle 6, and then catch myself as I think out loud and it is the end of cycle 4 and the beginning of cycle 5 of this fascinating weather pattern:

Today’s Video:

Video Weather Blog April 11 from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

As discussed in the video, KC is on the edge of this next storm, and the beginning of cycle 5 happens near the end of next week. Have a great day!

Gary

Wind Advisory & A Weekend Storm

Good morning bloggers,

A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Kansas City area today.  The Blizzard Warning continues up north as a major snowstorm is in progress this morning. Winter is still battling with spring, and it is winning the battle up north today. Farther south, spring has seemingly taken over, and we are paying close attention to the storm that is on the heals of this one.  Let’s discuss in today’s blog, beginning with the surface map from 10 PM last night:

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It was 76 degrees at 10 PM last night in KC and 80 degrees in Tulsa, OK.  At the same time, it was 19 degrees and snowing in Denver Colorado, where it was near 80 degrees the day before. Wow!  A cold front was blowing through the KC metro area as I was writing this at 7:30 AM, and the wind will shift to the southwest and west-southwest. The colder air is moving in from the southwest this morning:

7:30 AM Temperatures:

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It was 38 degrees in Wichita, KS and that air was surging our way.  Look at that temperature range.

The next storm system has a few questions yet to be answered.  There is a northern extension of the storm, and will there be snow mixed with the rain, or could it change to all snow?  These are the two main questions. Some of the models track this storm south of KC and some of them track it right into KC.  These next two maps are from the European Model from yesterday:

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Look at the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield in the comma head of this weekend storm.  The pink is heavy snow.  If the temperatures are above freezing, then there will be no accumulation of snow.  And, the track of this storm is still highly suspect, even though I lean in this solution above of that northern edge making it to north of KC. In the five previous LRC Cycles, this storm hit Kansas City a couple of times, and it tracked farther south in other cycles.  The pattern has been most in line with the last cycle, in February, and the storm came farther north and affected KC then, so I favor this farther north solution of the storm.  So, let’s see how the models trend this morning.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds this morning and becoming quite windy. The temperatures will fall into the 40s. And, then the clouds will clear allowing for a rise to near 50 degrees or into the lower 50s. The wind will shift to the west-southwest and gust to nearly 50 mph during the afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect.
  • Tonight:  Periods of clouds and windy.  The temperatures will drop to 33°
  • Friday:  Mostly sunny and windy.  West winds gusting to 35 mph.  High:  52°
  • Saturday:  Becoming cloudy. The clouds may move in fast enough to prevent a freeze. The clouds will act like a blanket.  If the storm goes farther south, a freeze is more likely.  Low:  35°
  • Saturday Night – Sunday:  Cloudy with rain likely from I-70 south and a chance of rain farther north.  The rain may mix with or change to snow.  It will then become sunny Sunday afternoon.  Low: 34° High:  49°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the blog on Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.  Here is the link to click on:  Weekend Storm

Gary

Fire, Water and Ice..Two Big Storm Systems

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are tracking two storm system the next 5 days. The first one is the biggest and it is really impressive. This storm will bring high winds, a blizzard and severe weather to the Rockies, plains and Midwest. The second storm is not exactly small and will bring rain and snow from the southern Plains to Midwest this weekend.

We will spend most of the blog on the first storm.

There are a myriad of watches and warnings issued for this storm.  They range from Blizzard to Fire Weather warnings.  Our area is in a Wind Advisory as we may see gusts 40-45 mph today and Thursday.

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There is a threat of severe weather tonight from northern Kansas to southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa. These thunderstorms will be mostly in the colder air and could produce very large hail. If any thunderstorms form in the warmer air then a tornado could be produced.  It will be hard for tornadoes as there is a lack of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture.

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The severe weather threat shifts to the eastern Midwest Thursday as deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture meets a fast moving cold front. This will be more of a line with strong winds the main threat.

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Now, how does this crazy storm affect our area?

WEDNESDAY: A deep surface low will be located in eastern Colorado with a warm front, cold front and dry line emanating from it. This creates a triple point where severe weather outbreaks are born. A severe weather outbreak will not be born this time as there is a lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Now, some severe weather is likely as the set up is quite good. See above. We will be windy with high clouds and highs around 80°. Temperatures will range from 90° in Dallas to the 20s and 30s in western Nebraska. A blizzard will be increasing from Colorado to South Dakota.

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THURSDAY: The surface low will track to western Iowa as the blizzard pounds the northern Plains. We will see a mix of sun and clouds as winds gust to 40-45 mph from the west and southwest behind the cold front. The day will start with temperatures in the 60s, falling to the 50s during the afternoon and then 40s after sunset. Thunderstorms will form near the Mississippi river during the afternoon.

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FRIDAY: The storm will be moving quickly towards the Great Lakes. We will see decreasing clouds and wind with increasing sunshine.  We do have a chance for a light freeze Friday, but clouds and wind will help to keep temperatures up. Also, our hard freeze threat is dropping for Saturday as the first storm is moving away quickly, taking the very cold air with it. Also, new clouds will be racing in Saturday as the second storm moves in to the Plains. Snowfall totals may be as high as 20″ to 30″ across South Dakota and northern Minnesota.

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SATURDAY: It will become mostly cloudy and this may prevent a freeze Saturday morning. There will be a large area of rain across the southern United States with snow in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. This storm will be lifting northeast Saturday night and Sunday. There are some models that bring a cold rain (some mixed snow) in to our region, while others keep it south. We will keep watching this one.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Jeff Penner

Powerful Storm Begins Forming

Good morning bloggers,

A powerful storm will emerge out over the plains by later tonight into Wednesday and then intensify into another one of those “bomb cyclones”.  As this system deepens, heavy snow will begin forming over the northern plains, and blizzard conditions are likely. Here are the watches, warnings, and advisories issued this morning:

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The surface pressure at the center of this major storm is forecast to drop to 975 mb which is equivalent to 28.79″.  This year’s LRC already produced one of the strongest surface lows ever recorded in a similar location of Kansas a few weeks ago, and here we are again as this pattern is producing another one.  In the last cycle, a storm similar to this one around 47 days ago produced a major snowstorm as well.  We were in the middle of our snow forecasting contest at this time in the last cycle.  Las Vegas, NV had snow and this time they have a High Wind Warning.  For KC, this time it means wind as well and very little chance of any rain or snow at all from this storm as to tracks a bit farther north.  36″ of snow may fall near the Missouri River upstream and it is being monitored closely, as the snow melt will be significant once again right into the Missouri River.

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There will be some severe weather risks from this system. It will be lacking low level moisture on Wednesday, and then there will be a bit better conditions for severe thunderstorms on Thursday off to the east.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. Another great day with southeast winds 5-15 mph. High:  75°
  • Wednesday:  Periods of clouds, warm, and windy. South winds increasing to 30 mph or stronger. High:  80°
  • Thursday: Turning colder with the winds shifting to the west, and then northwest gusting to 50 mph.  Temperatures dropping into the 40s later in the day.
  • Friday-Saturday: A freeze is likely both mornings, with Saturday having some settling of the air near the ground with frost possible.  Temperatures will drop into the 20s during the mornings.

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As you can see above, this is a pretty strong freeze that is forecast to develop Saturday morning.  A freeze is possible Friday morning too, and that will be with some wind, so it won’t allow for settling of the cold air near the ground.  By Saturday morning, there is a better chance of some freeze damage.

There is another storm on the heals of this one and the models are all over the place on the track of the rain and snow. We will discuss this next storm in the next few days.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to read the comments and join in the conversation.

Gary