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T-Storm Chances, Less Widespread

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Potential Stormy Few Days

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Tonight through Friday have the potential to be rather active as we have a cold front slowly moving southeast, deep monsoon moisture moving across the region from the southwest USA, and the usual summertime rich Gulf of Mexico moisture all over the place. There are also numerous disturbances tracking southwest to northeast in the monsoon flow.  So, you add all of these features up and we are in for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Also, with the upper level flow parallel to the front, there will be a zone of very heavy rain and flash flooding potential.  Yes, this can still happen in the driest areas as you can get 2″-3″ hourly rainfall rates.  So, we have a Flash Flood Watch in effect and a slight risk of severe weather.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT: Technically, the watch is in effect for tonight, but there may be another heavy rainfall event Thursday night as the front may stall, so this may be extended.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEVERE WEATHER RISK: We are in a slight risk of severe weather as a few of the thunderstorms may produce wind gusts over 55 mph along with hail quarter sized or higher.  The main threat tonight is really flash flooding in the zone that sees the heaviest rain.

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UPDATED RAINFALL FORECAST:  This is from the 12Z Wednesday NAM.  Until we see how this evolves, take the specific numbers with a grain of salt.  We know there is going to be a 50-100 mile wide zone of very heavy rainfall tonight.  We just do not know where it will be centered until we see how this sets up.  Areas south of the river still need rain, so lets hope the areas that need the rain the most receive a nice big drink.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Thunderstorm Chances Increasing

Good evening,

We have had a few downpours around this afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance moves by.  Is this it for the night? Or will we see more thunderstorms?  The chance is about 30% as we have picked out two possible areas for new development.

WEATHER TRACK RADAR (3:55 PM): A few downpours formed, especially from Downtown to east along I-70.  These are not severe, but do produce some very heavy rain and a a few flashes of lightning.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: There are two areas to monitor for possible thunderstorm development this evening.  One, is an outflow boundary in eastern Nebraska that came from a cluster of thunderstorms now in northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota.  If thunderstorms form on this boundary, they could move southeast and affect northern Missouri tonight.  There is a second area in southwest/central Kansas where there is a surface trough and lots of heat.  Around 430 PM thunderstorms began to form in central Kansas.  We will watch these as they could affect our area after 10 PM.  So, we will be watching both areas closely tonight as the models are in conflict as to how this is going to evolve, if anything.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY: Our best chance of widespread heavy rain arrives Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as a cold front moves slowly south.  The flow over the front will be from southwest to northeast with embedded disturbances, parallel to the front.  This is the set up for training echoes and a zone of  very heavy rain.  The question is where will the zone set up? This is the data from the Tuesday 18z NAM.  It has the zone on I-70, bringing the KC area some much needed rain.  The location for the zone of heavy rain is not set in stone, but we will know more as we see how it sets up Wednesday.

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Have a great night.

Jeff

Winter Forecasts Now Are Ridiculous & Tropical Moisture Will Be Heading Our Way

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

Tropical Storm Kay is weakening over the Pacific Ocean west of Baja Califronia and moisture flowing across Mexico will be pulled northeast towards KC in the next 24 to 48 hours.

KayYou can see Kay right here moving west with the forecast of it to fall apart.  Moisture has been pulled into Mexico around this system. This is not unusual and quite often this moisture will track into the southwestern United States. This is going to happen, but with the weather pattern currently cycling according to the LRC the moisture will likely be diverted east out into the plains states. This will lead to an increasing chance of rain and possible thunderstorms on Tuesday, and then by Wednesday a cold front will approach and interact with this moisture as well. It is really a complex set-up and we will know more in the next 24 hours as to how it will be setting up.

Here is a look at our Powercast valid Tuesday afternoon, and a second one valid Wednesday evening:

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The front on Wednesday will be interesting as it will be interacting with light southwest flow aloft and the thunderstorms are most likely north of the front. This could place Kansas City in a favorable spot on Wednesday night for rain and thunderstorms. But, this is really a unique pattern, so I don’t have a lot of confidence on this yet. We are still going with a 70% chance for Wednesday night.

One year from now is the total eclipse of the sun that will be tracking right over Kansas City for a very rare event:

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Using the LRC, by January we will be able to make an accurate prediction for the weather on this date.  How do the astronomers know that there will be an eclipse of the sun? Because of cycles.  The weather pattern is also cycling, and we have made tremendous strides in forecasting using a breakthrough technology known as the LRC, it was named by you, the KSHB bloggers 15 years ago. But, we have to wait until the new pattern sets up this fall.

Speaking of the pattern setting up……maybe you are beginning to see winter forecasts coming out. How can they possibly issue one before the new pattern evolves this fall. Here is what we wrote today:

Why Winter Forecasts Are Not Accurate When Issued Before November

By The Weather2020 meteorology team

Many different weather outlets release their winter forecasts in August and September, before the official beginning of fall. Perhaps this has to do with the fact that these outlets want to release their forecasts before NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center does so during the month of October.

To make a winter forecast this far in advance, one cannot use the LRC, as the weather pattern in August and September is still the same one that set up last October, and will morph into a completely different pattern by next fall.  Thus, one must use other, far less reliable forecast tools, of which there are three main ones that are not reliable when issued before the new pattern sets up after October 1st, according to the LRC. The other tools are 1) Using the forecast Niño indices and comparing them to average El Niño/La Niña temp/precipitation patterns, 2) Examining current and forecast Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) throughout the Pacific Ocean and comparing the SSTs to precious years to find the best analog “matches”, and 3) Analyzing 4-7 month temperature/precipitation forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCM) and/or Climate Models.

Weather2020 uses the LRC, what we feel is the best long range forecasting tool available in the field of meteorology today for forecasts from 1 day to 300 days into the future. These other three tools provide little, if any, benefit when trying to make a long range forecast.

Let’s take a brief look at El Nino and La Nina. Last year (2015-16) we had a strong El Nino in place. However, southern California ended up yet another dry winter with around 60% of their average rainfall. Most sources, including the Climate Prediction Center, had forecast a wet winter in southern California primarily because of the strong El Nino that was forecast. This is just one example of why we cannot make forecasts primarily based on El Nino/La Nina.

Snowfall and temperature forecasts based on the El Niño/La Niña indexes are unreliable. For example, both 2002-03 and 2009-10 were Moderate El Nino years. In 2002-03, Kansas City had 50% of its normal snowfall, while in 2009-10, it had over 200% of its normal snowfall. So, two very good analog matches in terms of El Nino, but very different in terms of the actual weather experienced.

These are just a couple of examples of why we believe that the forecaster must wait until at least late October/early November when we have somewhat of a decent handle on the LRC to make an accurate winter forecast. Not to mention that in August, we do not even know exactly how strong El Nino/La Nina will even be in January and February, so that adds to the uncertainty of making an already very shaky forecast.

Finally, let’s touch a bit on winter forecasts made using GCM/Climate model forecasts. These models have the capability of making forecasts several months out. This is likely an even worse option than relying on Sea Surface Temperature analogs, as it is widely known that the GFS (a model that meteorologists use daily to make the 7 day forecasts we all see) 11-16 day forecasts are “fantasy.” Much like the GFS, long range GCM/Climate Models are full of errors when forecasts are trying to be made 4 to 8 months in advance. So, this technique is essentially useless when making a forecast several months out, and therefore any winter forecast we see in late summer/early fall whether from El Nino or analog comparisons or Climate Models, has essentially no practical use.

In conclusion: You may see many different winter forecasts that will be non-specific, fun to look at, but likely inaccurate. When Weather2020 issues the winter forecast in November it will be more specific, accurate, and reliable as we use a breakthrough technology known as the LRC.

We have a discussion going on in the Weather2020 blog if you would like to join. The new LRC begins in seven weeks.

Gary

The rain is gone, the mild air is here

A pretty impressive 24 hour period across the area! Some decent rain for many (not all) and then a shot of milder air spilling into the region today. Did you know some parts of Nebraska and Kansas dipped into the 40s this morning??

In the video we go over the rain amounts and look ahead to the next chance of rain.

When you wake up Sunday morning, it may be a little on the crisp side for some! We’re talking morning lows in the 50s. Don’t worry, it should warm nicely through the day.
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As far as this evening goes, it should be a great night for outdoor sports events. No rain-outs expected at all!
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Sporting KC plays at 9pm tonight, and it may get cool for some by the end of the match.
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I have a feeling the rowdy ones will really be loving this kind of weather.

Details on the next rain chance is in the video. Hope you have a nice weekend, our Olympics coverage will wrap up tomorrow night. So until then, we remain on a slightly altered TV schedule. See you at 5, 6, & 11p tonight.
GO ROYALS & GO SPORTING KC!!
-JD

Great Weekend Weather

Good weekend,

Well the wait is over as we had our first widespread rain since July 13th as many locations received .50″ to 1.00″.  This was caused by a cold front that is now delivering some great weather.  The humidity will be down all weekend along with abundant sunshine.

SATURDAY: We will see more sun this afternoon as northwest winds of 10-20 mph bring in drier air.  The highs will be in the upper 70s.

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY: The air conditioners will get a break as lows drop to the 50s, winds will be 5-10 mph from the west and northwest.  Sunday looks sunny with highs around 80° along with low humidity as high pressure is in control.

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We will not have to wait 5-6 weeks for our next widespread rain.  It looks like moisture and disturbances from the southwest USA will move in Tuesday.  This will be our next good rain chance.  If this does not pan out, there are more chances Wednesday into Thursday as we see a new cold front and more disturbances from the southwest.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Friday night severe threat

As risk of severe weather in the area tonight. It has been awhile since we’ve had to tackle thunderstorms. Here is the latest outlook from the SPC as of 3pm:
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Activity has already begun to fester across central Kansas this afternoon. It will continue to develop and move to the East through the evening.
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As of 3:15p, a severe thunderstorm watch is already in place for parts of Kansas
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I would not be surprised to see an extension to the South and East later on this evening as the line pushes that direction.

The biggest threat for our viewing area will be strong wind gusts (over 50mph) and the potential for flash flooding in some areas. This would be associated with the strongest thunderstorms. In general, many will experience heavy rain and a good amount of thunder and lightning, but the strongest of storms will bring the threat of the high wind, small hail, and flash flooding. The chance of large hail (over 1″) and tornadoes appears to be low. That does not mean zero, it just means the odds are low.
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So to sum most of that up, this is what to expect tonight:
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As for timing, based on the latest guidance, this is a rough idea of when the initial line of storms will move through. It’s that initial line that should have the most “bite” to it. That said, this does not appear to be a huge severe weather event.
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Latest guidance on how much rain we may see shows that not everyone will get a good drink.
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As I always say, use a map like this with caution. This is based on one run, of one forecast model. All it takes is a single storm to linger of an area for an extra 15 minutes and the rainfall amount will change drastically.

Lingering light rain activity can be expected through very early Saturday morning. The system will quickly depart the area, taking the bigger rain and storms with it. Our weekend is looking great, after a cloudy start on Saturday.
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The dew points are going to drop dramatically, so do not expect it to be humid outside. Saturday will wind up being a little breezy, but that looks to be about the worst of it.

Those heading to the K tonight (or out for high school football) should keep eyes on the radar and have a way to get alerts when they are issued. The longer your event goes beyond 9pm in KC, the higher of a chance for rain you will have.
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If you are attending an event on the Kansas side, that timeframe would be a little sooner. Here again, be prepared and ready. This is snapshot from one of our computer forecast models at 9pm tonight:
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To the takeaway from this: if you live on the Kansas side, it will be rocking and rolling sooner than the Missouri side. And as the system slides to the East, it will begin to lose a little of its punch. Which is why the Kansas side as the higher risk for severe weather than the bulk of the Missouri side.

We will keep you updated on air, and across our various digital platforms (Twitter, Facebook, our website). Stay safe tonight and then enjoy the beautiful weekend ahead.
Hopefully your yard gets the rain it needs and the Royals pick up another “W” tonight!

-JD

A Stormy Friday Night?

Good morning bloggers,

Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Friday morning: An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, but most areas will likely be dry. Temperatures in the 70s
  • Friday afternoon: Again, an isolated and brief shower or thunderstorm is possible with temperatures warming into the lower 90s
  • Friday night: Thunderstorms likely. A 100% chance of thunderstorms with cooler air moving in by Saturday

These long nights with the Olympics on NBC have been hitting my sleep schedule hard.  I hope you have been enjoying the Olympics as it certainly has been exciting.  The closing ceremony is on Sunday night.  Between now and then the weather is going to get a bit exciting.  Take a look at this:

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The red hot Kansas City Royals are hosting the Minnesota Twins on Friday night in the big town.  The latest data is trending right in this direction, on the map you can see above. Those are thunderstorms forecast to be near KCI Airport by 9:30 PM. This timing may be just slow enough to get the game in, and the Friday night football games debuting at the Missouri High Schools.  But, what if it speeds up just a bit. It is something we will be monitoring closely. Here is a map one hour later:

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This one shows the thunderstorms right smack over the K. The games are usually over by this time. We will try to time this out for you on our weathercasts.  There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main severe weather risk type.

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It will likely hit 90 again today as the 90s take the lead over the 80s this summer:

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Have a great start to Friday. I will be blogging on Weather2020 as I do every day.  We are sharing extremely important technology with the LRC on that site and this storm fits perfectly in this years pattern.  It’s just fascinating and we have a lot of things in the works we will be sharing with you this fall.

Gary

A Late Night Thunderstorm?

Good evening,

Today was a typical mid August day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along with abundant sunshine.   There is actually a chance of a few thunderstorms later tonight, but if you are hoping for a great rain on your yard or farm, this is not the weather event for you.

There is a small disturbance in southeast Nebraska that will head into northern Missouri tonight before it falls apart.

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Here is what some of the latest data shows.

1 AM WEDNESDAY: There are scattered showers and thunderstorms in northwest Missouri with a few in eastern Kansas.

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4 AM WEDNESDAY: You can see as this thing moves southeast, the rain is decreasing in coverage.

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7 AM WEDNESDAY:  The rain goes poof!  So, this whole thing is not much to write home about.  Hopefully, you get a nice downpour after midnight.  The rest of tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs around 90°.

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Thursday will be dry with highs around 90° as well.  Then, a cold front moves through later Friday into Saturday.  This will bring the area a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, but there will be holes in the activity.  So, not all areas will get a good rainfall.  Right now, the minimum rainfall may be targeting KC again.

Jeff

In Search Of Rain

Good evening,

Today was a rather rare August day with a thick high overcast and some cumulus clouds as an upper level storm moved by.  This made for a rare August sky, but what is even more odd, is that there was no rain from this system.  The rain is falling hundreds of miles east of the main circulation.  What a weird season.

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MONDAY: This is an interesting scene from KCI.  There is no wind as you can see a near perfect reflection of the trees on the water.  There is also a thick overcast with no rain in sight.  So, when do we have a rain chance?

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RAINFALL CHANCES: There is little to no chance of rain Tuesday-Thursday as highs reach the upper 80s to low and mid 90s.  A cold front approaches Friday, moves through Friday night and exits Saturday.  This is our next decent chance of rain.  It would be nice if all locations could see at least .25″ to 1.00″.

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Have a great week.

Jeff