Potential severe weather today (Saturday)

1:45p UPDATE
The SPC is talking about issuing a watch for our area. Via their latest mesoscale discussion, it would include KC *if* the issuing the watch. Right now, they say they are at a 60% chance of issuing. Remember: it’s the Storm Prediction Center that issues watches (not the local NWS, even though they do consult with the SPC on geographic coverage). Local TV does not have this authority. So, I will continue to monitor and update as needed.

Previous blog from 11am

I guess I’ll give the ol’ blog here an update…. feel free to share the info.

Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for portions of our coverage area today.
SPC

At this time, that does NOT include Kansas City. However, a new update is expected around noon this afternoon and they may adjust their “Slight Risk” area. As always, don’t be fooled by the term “slight”. While the overall chances are low for severe weather, there may be one or two storms that get a little nasty this afternoon.

Here’s the current setup.
On the visible satellite image, you can see a fair amount of sunshine over the KC area. Meanwhile, to our North there’s an active area of thunderstorms.
Visible Satellite as of 10:15am

Those storms show up better on the radar. Currently, there is an active thunderstorm warning for the West side of this small line (as you can see from the yellow box). This is moving to the East/Southeast.

Radar as of 10:40a

Radar as of 10:40a

Looking over the forecast guidance… it’s struggling. The latest NAM doesn’t really latch on to what’s going on now, so it gives a ho-hum outlook for later.

NAM model showing radar for 10am

NAM model showing radar for 10am

 

NAM model - simulated radar for 3p

NAM model – simulated radar for 3p

So, personally, I think the NAM is out to lunch today and can’t be trusted much. On the other hand, here is what the RPM is doing.

RPM model - Simulated radar at 10am

RPM model – Simulated radar at 10am

It is picking up on the activity in Southern Nebraska, but has it a bit too far South.
Looking ahead, however, this is what it tries to develop later this afternoon:

RPM model - Simulated radar at 3pm

RPM model – Simulated radar at 3pm

This would indicate some strong storms on either side of Kansas City. Mainly Cameron/Chillicothe to the East and then Topeka/Lawrence to our West. Again, this is just model guidance not concrete truth. It may also have a Southern bias, given how it started out putting things a bit too far South.

For those wondering about the HRRR output, it seems that model is having some processing issues on certain websites. However, the great folks over at WeatherBell are able to process a backup to the HRRR and this is what it looks like for 3p today:

Via weatherbell.com. Worth checking out

Via weatherbell.com. Worth checking out

They have a great selection of model output at WeatherBell. This high resolution image is proof. Worth checking out their offerings.
The HRRR is along the same lines as the RPM, so that’s boosting confidence a little bit that we’ll get a couple bigger storms later today.

WHAT’S THE RISK?
Right now, strong winds (over 55mph) and some larger hail (golfball size) would be the primary concerns with the storms that are able to grow and develop. This does NOT mean that every single storm will produce these kinds of winds/hail. Tornado threat isn’t sky-high, but it’s also not nil. There is a small chance of a tornado or two. Here again, not every storm will produce one. It’s possible we don’t see a single tornado in our area today. But I want you prepared in case one develops and you need to take cover.

As of this blog update, we have no active watches or warnings in our area. I will try to update the blog (toward the top) if this changes. Currently, I am writing from home. I will be going into the station later and tracking whatever develops on radar. We are scheduled for 5p, 6p, and 10p newscasts today. However, we are always at the mercy of NBC sports programming on the weekends and our newscasts may be delayed if something runs long. Stick with us. If something major develops on radar, we will break into programming as needed.

This is NOT shaping up to be a major severe weather day. I want you to know that. No reason to panic or become frightened. Yes, there is a chance we see some thunderstorms this afternoon. And in that chance there is a chance some of them become strong to severe. If/when they do, we’ll be the station giving you the latest information and telling you what you should do. We will not be the ones scaring the pants off of you. That’s not my approach to severe weather. Plan and prepare, not doom and gloom.

I’ll keep you updated.
-JD

Last Weekend of Summer

Good Morning Bloggers!

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Some dense fog in spots again this morning, but that will begin to burn off late this morning.  The clouds will slowly begin to break up this afternoon and we will see some sun through the clouds.

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The warm front is on the move through the area right now and will lift north this afternoon. This will put all of us in the warm sector and we will warm up quickly this afternoon.  High temperatures will be 15-20 degrees warmer than yesterday with high temperatures into the lower 80s.

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Looking forward we will have a cold front sink south into the viewing area on Saturday afternoon.  This will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and early evening for our viewing area.  This doesn’t mean that the day is ruined and you can’t be outside, but just keep an eye on radar around 2 pm and into the evening.

Have a great day!

Another update coming later

Stubborn Low Clouds and a look ahead

Good evening bloggers,

We are currently looking over the changing weather pattern. How will it impact the weekend? A warm front will move through and temperatures will jump into the 80s on Friday!!! But, not today. Look at these stubborn clouds:

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Kansas City was the epicenter of this cloud deck today. There is a slight chance of a few thunderstorms the next few days, and we will time it out for you on 41 Action News.  The pattern is changing, and the new LRC is about to set up. I am so ready for something new!!!!

Gary

Low Cloud Problem

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We had some nice thunderstorm activity this morning, mostly from Kansas City to Springfield.  Some heavy rain occurred in Johnson county Kansas.

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This was due to a developing warm front to our southwest.  Now, we have some drizzle and a band of low clouds situated north and east of the front.  These clouds will be hard to get rid of today as the warm front sits.  Temperatures right now are in the mid to upper 60s.  If we are to reach the mid to upper 70s, the sun will have to come out.  Also, tonight the warm front slips south and west so, if the low clouds break, they will fill back in tonight.  These low clouds will be hard to get rid of on Thursday as the warm front will be still sitting to the south and west.  Friday, the warm front surges north and all locations will jump to highs in the 80s.

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What about thunderstorms?  It is looking like the best chance tonight will be from Concordia to Emporia to Chanute, KS as the front sags south.  Our area could still see drizzle and perhaps a stray thunderstorm north and east of  the main area.

So, our main forecast issue the next 2 days is whether these low clouds clear or not, a low cloud problem.

Have a great day.

Jeff

Tough Rain Forecast The Next Few Days

Good evening bloggers,

The new data will be coming in soon, and we will have on update on 41 Action News at 10 PM, and then beginning at 4:30 AM Wednesday.  A warm front will be developing and, now that summer is coming to an end, this front may act less like a summer front, and more like a fall version. This will potentially help develop a warm advection zone, where thunderstorms may be generated the next two days, and then this weekend we will have to watch the remnants of Odile closely.

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This is one of our Powercasts that actually had 11 inches of rain on the south side of the city Wednesday night. But, the other versions of this same model, with different starting conditions, initial conditions, had a lot less.

Have a great Tuesday night, and we will get you updated as this pattern sets up.

Gary