Quantcast

How good are long range predictions?

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

Many long range forecasts for this fall and winter have come out, and if you know me, then you likely know how I feel about any long range prediction that is made that includes dates past the first week of October. The new pattern sets up in early October, so there  is no way anyone knows what that new pattern will produce.  Yes, we know there is a strengthening El Niño and it will influence this winters pattern around the globe. But,  the new weather pattern according to the LRC does not set up until sometime between October 1st and November 10th. I saw one forecast today that was so ridiculous, with maps, and an explanation of the early and late fall pattern that will happen. I say no way!  I am sure a lot of you say we can’t do what we have been doing accurately over the past decade with the LRC. The proof is in our forecasts and we have been really good during the past two plus years with our seasonal forecasts and with more specific forecasts such as the Super Bowl forecast from the past two years and so many other forecasts. The 12 week forecasts can be seen every day on the 1Weather app and on our Weather2020 site. The 1Weather app is for android users only right now, but the IOS version will come out in the first quarter of next year.

While I am writing this the Royals were leading 9 to nothing, and Lorenzo Cain now has a 10 game hitting streak:

1

Now, before you start to wonder how accurate our weather predictions have been in the past few years, think about other long range forecasts. Have you heard of Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA projections.  This forecast system predicted that the Kansas City Royals would be 72-90. Here is the link to the preseason forecasts:  Team Forecasts

If you look at the 30 team projections, this system that is respected for some reason, is likely going to be correct on 4 out of the 15 American League teams, and 6 out of the 15 in the national league. That is an long range forecasting accuracy of 33%. What would be considered a good long range prediction? 50%, 60%, 70%?  Our forecasts at -Weather2020.com are coming in accurate in the 60 to 80 percent range.  We are forecasting the weather from 1 day to over 200 days into the future and getting them right. We are able to do this because of our knowledge of the LRC. The Pecota ratings must not have been paying close attention to what happened since the all star game of 2014. The Royals have been the best team in baseball ever since.

Our weather pattern is still the same one from last fall. We are just a few weeks away from the new pattern setting up. By later in October we will be able to begin forecasting accurately at the level we are used to once again. For now, we are in the short grey area in early October where we have just a short period of time where our accuracy goes down just a bit.

Look at what they put out before the season began:

4. The Royals project to be the saddest story of 2015

“From one game away from a championship to 90 losses. And you know that pennant gave Dayton Moore about 12 years of leeway, too. If this is accurate, the hearts that were only just mended will be torn apart again.  The good news: The defense projects to be the best in baseball. Six of the nine regulars are projected to be two wins over replacement or better. Omar Infante bounces back in a big way. Alex Gordon is still great.”

Wrong forecast! Really bad! Can you imagine if we made such a bad forecast. Okay, once in a while we do, but right now we are on quite a roll!

So, what is going to happen this fall, next winter and spring? Hang on, we will know a lot more soon. El Niño is becoming quite strong:

6

The weather will be calm into the Labor Day Weekend, but by around Monday we are expecting and forecasting a chance of thunderstorms. We will be able to time those out for you soon.

4

We will discuss these changes on 41 Action News. Have a great day!

Gary

September averages & could there be a brief shower soon?

Good late evening or early morning bloggers,

We hope you have had a great summer. We have finally moved into September and what was about to be a rather wet summer ended up drying out in spots, especially the northern part of the city.  KCI Airport ended up with 15.31″ of rain from June 1st to August 31st. Most of this rain fell in June and July. Less than one inch of rain fell at KCI in August. The south side of the KC metro area has had over 4 inches of rain in spots just in the last ten days. So, the drier spot was up north.

3

What is supposed to happen in September? September is actually one of the wetter months, on average, of the year

September Averages:

  • Average Rainfall: 4.64″ (2.25″ last year and 4.84″ two years ago)
  • Average High September 1st: 85°
  • Average High September 30th:  73°
  • Average Low September 1st:  65°
  • Average Low September 30th:  51°

There are some indications of a wetter pattern returning during the next two weeks, but for now it’s a bit of a struggle.

1

On this first map above, the latest Powercast shows one isolated shower or thunderstorm near Topeka early in the morning.  I saw some clouds building up today, so I won’t be shocked if a few isolated showers form early on Wednesday. There is a little pocket of moisture moving across.

2

Can you believe how active the tropical Pacific Ocean is right now? Three hurricanes, although Ignacio is weakening into a tropical storm.  Kilo may become one of the longest lasting tropical storms as it formed a dozen days ago on August 20th.

8

 

Have a great day. Let’s see how all of this sets up in the next few days.

Gary

Looking back at our summer forecast!

Good evening bloggers,

As we move into September, let’s look back on how we did in our summer forecast.  Our winter and spring forecasts were quite accurate, and it appears we have continued our hot streak of predicting the weather long range using the LRC. This past winter we forecasted 17 inches of snow and 14 inches fell. We continued to explain how we would continue to not quite be in the right spot.  How did we do this summer? Let’s begin with where we were off a bit. We forecasted two possible heat waves, and there wasn’t one. A heat wave is defined to be three consecutive days of 95 degrees or hotter. And, the hottest temperature was 96° on July 14th.  We never had three consecutive days that hot.  But, the rest of the summer forecast was almost perfect. We made a forecast of 16 inches of rain between June 1st and August 31st. KCI Airport ended up with 15.31″ of rain, above average for the summer. We also forecasted near average temperatures, and we ended up just barely below average this summer at 0.8° below average.  Here are the stats:

2

What is going to happen this fall, next winter?  There have been many forecasts that have already come out, but we believe they are based on just about nothing. Complete guesses!  We are still in the same pattern that set up last fall. The new pattern is just now beginning to evolve, but it will not click in until October and November.

5

It hit 90 degrees today, and we are forecasting right around 90 degrees for the next few days. There is a slim chance that a thunderstorm could form between now and Sunday, but nothing major is showing up until right around Labor Day. Have a great Monday night, early Tuesday and  we will update the blog by Tuesday evening.
Gary

 

Morning Fog and Look into Labor Day

 

 

 

Good Sunday morning bloggers,

We are having a foggy start to your Sunday.  In some locations the clouds are just off the ground and visibility is 1-2 miles or more.  In other areas the clouds are on the ground and visibility is under 1 mile or zero.

VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING: As of 7 AM the lowest visibility was south of I-70 with many spots at 1/2 mile or less.  This fog will head northwest before it lifts after 10 am.

9

NOON SUNDAY:  The fog will lift into a low overcast with perhaps a misty shower east of KC.  Temperatures will be in the low 70s.

3

 

5 PM SUNDAY: The clouds will break up into cumulus clouds.  There is a 5% chance a few of those clouds build into a shower.  The best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be along and south of I-44.  Highs today will reach 80°-85°.  If the fog and low clouds hang around longer then upper 70s will be the highs.

4

 

8 AM MONDAY: Tonight the low clouds and fog will reform.  However, it will probably not be as thick or widespread as this morning as lows drop to the 60s.

5

 

Now lets take a look at the weather pattern for the next 7 days.  This will take us through Labor day weekend.

MONDAY: The jet stream will be retreated well north into Canada leaving the eastern 3/4 of the USA in a mostly calm and warm weather pattern.  There will be heavy showers and thunderstorms in the southeast USA as the remnants of Erika and a system linger.  A trough will be found in the Pacific northwest and this is where it will be cool and unsettled.

6

 

WEDNESDAY:  There is not much movement in the upper level pattern.  The Pacific northwest trough moves east slowly, but still most of the eastern 3/4 of the USA remains in a calm and warm weather pattern, including KC.

7

 

SUNDAY: The trough edges far enough east to bring thunderstorms to the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest.  This trough will continue to slide east as a cold front heads south.  So, either Sunday or Labor day or both will have chances of thunderstorms in our area.  We will see if the system can slow by 1-2 days.  If that happens, then we will squeeze out a mostly dry Labor day weekend.  We will update this through the week.

8

 

Have a great day and week ahead.

Jeff

It Looks Like Rain

Good Saturday bloggers,

The system that brought us the heavy downpours that last 2 days is off to the east.  In it’s wake are low clouds.  These clouds will be hard to get rid of this weekend, but we should see some breaks later this afternoon and evening.  Now, it surely looks like rain, but 99.9% of this weekend will be dry.  There will be some mist and a 10% chance of a shower later today and later Sunday.

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING: A low overcast has moved in and we may see a few breaks later today and evening.  Some mist is possible.

7

 

SATURDAY NOON: You can see the area of clouds from the Great Lakes to eastern Kansas.  A few showers are possible, mostly east.

1

 

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: The low clouds will try to break up after 3-4 PM, especially west.  A shower or two is not out of the question, especially east.

2

 

SUNDAY MORNING:  The clouds will try break this evening, but they will fill back in by Sunday morning.  You can see a ton of clouds, but not one green blip.  So, Sunday morning will start like this morning.  It will look like rain, but at most a few mist droplets will occur.

3

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: The low clouds will break up and a shower or two is possible, especially across southern Missouri.

4

 

HIGHS SATURDAY: We will be in the 70s due to the clouds and light north winds behind the system we had the last two days.

5

 

HIGHS SUNDAY:  Highs will likely reach the low 80s as we will see more sun.

6

 

So, overall, this weekend will be decent, just not much sun and not great for the pool.  However, Monday into Labor Day weekend looks mostly dry with highs 85°-90° and lows 65°-70°.  The weather will allow you to head to the pool for the last unofficial week of summer.  So, perhaps head to the pool after school!

Have a great weekend.

Jeff

Strange weather day!

Good evening bloggers,

Do you remember the day when snow fell in a band from north to south right over the KC metro area, I believe it was February 19th?  Today reminds me of that day as north to south bands of thunderstorms developed. Here is the first one that formed early this morning and by 9:11 AM it was producing torrential downpours from downtown KC to Overland Park, KS, and southwest to western Linn County.

4

Just three hours later a new band developed and literally formed right over the stadium complex. This rain came down heavily and the Royals game was delayed around 90 minutes.  Here is that radar from 1:30 PM:

5

And, here are the rainfall amounts from around the area:

6

Today’s weather was really a strange set-up with north flow aloft east of a weakening ridge aloft.  What happens next is going to be quite interesting as well.  The monsoon disturbance that came out of Mexico, tracked across Arizona, turned east across Wyoming, and now is turning southeast towards KC, will bring us a chance of thunderstorms again Friday into Friday night. A piece of this storm may break off and stall over Missouri and this could impact the weekend forecast.

1The main jet stream is going through a gradual transition as fall approaches.  There is a trough moving our way, and I show it in the dashed black line.  This is the 500 mb level, around 18,000 feet up above us. We use this level to track storm systems. This trough is going to be interesting to track on Friday into Saturday. The latest models have trended towards the southern extension of this system to break off and possibly drift across Missouri. This would impact the weekend, and it is something I will be trying to describe on the air tonight at 10 PM.

2You can see this pattern in transition on this next map on the right. The first map on the left was from 7 AM Friday, and this second map is valid later Saturday.  The main jet stream is forecast to intensify over the Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast. The heights are rising over much of the United States. As this pattern changes from hour to hour, it is messing with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast of Tropical Storm Erika.  Where will that storm go, and what will happen to the piece that may or may not break off over Missouri this weekend. If it separates, then we will have a chance of thunderstorms continuing into the weekend.

Have a great evening!  How about those Kansas City Royals!

Gary

Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are enjoying yet another very nice summer day with highs in the low 80s along with low humidity.  We have been talking about and tracking a storm system since Monday.  Right now it is over Utah as it comes north from the southwest summer monsoon.  This storm will turn east and be in western Nebraska by Wednesday morning.  It will move into Iowa by Friday morning.  It appears most of the rain will occur across Nebraska and Iowa.

WEDNESDAY SATELLITE:  The storm is over western Utah and will be turning east tonight.

1

THURSDAY MORNING: There will likely be an area of thunderstorms to the west and northwest of KC during the morning.  This will be caused by warm/moist air trying to return north.  The showers and thunderstorms will have a hard time moving east into KC as the air will be more stable further east.  We will have to nowcast the progress of the rain tomorrow morning.  The area of rain will likely fall apart by noon, leading to a partly cloudy and dry Thursday afternoon.

2

 

FRIDAY MORNING: There will likely be new thunderstorms across Iowa, southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri as the storm system approaches.  Again, these will have a hard time moving southeast as the main storm tracks north.  This will be another nowcast situation.

3

 

FRIDAY EVENING: The best chance of rain for areas from KC south and east may occur Friday evening and night as a weak cold front/trough come south.  After the chance of rain Friday night, it looks dry for 5-7 days as a ridge builds in.  So, actually it would be nice to see some rain.

4

 

RAINFALL FORECAST: This is our latest thinking.  The heaviest rain will likely occur north of I-80, north of the main storm track.  Then, south of I-80 there will be those clusters of thunderstorms, but exact location and how far south are still questions that will have to be dealt with day by day.

5

 

Jeff

Terrific Tuesday, Wonderful Wednesday

Good Tuesday bloggers,

This great summer weather will last through Wednesday, then we track a change.  First lets discuss the great weather.

TUESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  High pressure will continue to dominate as it sits over southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.  Highs will range from the 70s in Iowa to near 90° in western Kansas.  90° is not that hot for western Kansas at the end of August.

1

 

WEDNESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  The nice weather will continue as high pressure remains overhead.  The heat will build across the western Plains with a few readings close to 100°.  Our area will stay in the low 80s.

7

 

ROYALS FIRST PITCH FORECAST:  It will be another near perfect weather night for baseball.  Temperatures will be in the 70s with a 4 mph wind at first pitch.

5

 

WEDNESDAY MORNING:  We are in for another comfortable start with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.  It will be 1-2 degrees warmer than Tuesday.

6

 

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS:  We are tracking a system that will be near Salt Lake City Wednesday evening.  This system is coming out of the southwest summer monsoon.  The data takes this system to Nebraska by Thursday and Iowa by Friday.  Since, this system is up north, most of the rain will occur along and north of I-80.  There will be the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and Missouri Thursday and Friday.  These will be caused by warmer and more humid air returning north (mostly Thursday morning) and a weak cold front heading south from the system.  The KC area will see anywhere from nothing in locations to possibly a .25″ to 1″ in locations.  We will know more in 1-2 days.

3

 

SUMMARY OF THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK:  The best chance is Thursday morning and Friday.  The chance Thursday morning is caused by warm/moist air returning north.

 

4

 

Have a great day.

Jeff

Beautiful Weather

Good Monday bloggers,

The weather is about as good as it gets for this time of year.  Lows are in the 50s, highs are around 80° along with abundant sunshine and a light wind.

LOWS TODAY: The low was 50° in KC, 2 degrees from  a record.  St. Joseph dropped to 46° and Valentine, NE dropped to 39°.

1

MONDAY WEATHER SET UP:  A large surface high pressure is located over Kansas.  This puts us in light west to northwest winds, keeping the humidity low and the sun shining.

2

 

LOWS TUESDAY:  It will be another refreshing morning with lows in the 50s.  A few spots will see lows in the 40s, especially northeast of KC.

3

 

4

TUESDAY WEATHER SET UP:  The high pressure splits into two pieces, still keeping the great weather around.

5

 

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS:  Tomorrow there will be a disturbance, related to the southwest monsoon, over Arizona.  This system will track north to Wyoming by Wednesday then east into Nebraska and Iowa Thursday and Friday.  This will bring our next chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.  The heaviest rain may fall along I-80, but we should see some here.  We will update this in the coming days.

6

 

After this system, next weekend is looking mostly dry, warm and humid.

Have a great week and enjoy this weather!

Jeff

Leave a message, we’ve gone fishin’

Spoke about it in the blog on Friday: the storm chance for Saturday night was low. As it turned out, some didn’t even see a drop. After a little bit of hype from others, it turned out where the atmosphere was capped off and the front simply moved in a way where the storms just could not realize their potential. The geek speak for all of that? It didn’t storm, it wasn’t the doom & gloom some were screaming for. The rain amounts were pretty wimpy:
7

After clouds this morning, we had a great afternoon for the KC Air Show. The Blue Angels were the highlight, for sure. I managed to capture a few shots from our Skyview cameras.
999

9-2

99

All right, I suppose I should talk about the weather: It’ll be nice this week. Thanks for readings, that’s all. ….
Fishing

Okay, fine, more details. There will be a weak ridge in the middle of the atmosphere that will help keep our weather pretty calm.
4

We’ll be just enough in that bubble to keep the sky mostly sunny and the temperatures near 81°, give or take a couple degrees. Even the overnight lows will be quite comfortable, in the 50s. Your electric bills will thank you.

I do not see this really changing until about Friday. A warm front should sweep through and that will bring us a chance for rain and a few t-storms. But hey, that’s still six days away. Let’s enjoy the tranquil weather this week. Should be GREAT for anyone heading out to watch the Royals. I know I’ll be there!
6

Enjoy the week ahead!
-JD