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Your Winter Forecast Thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

While a major storm hits the northeast coast of the United States, this time with a winter component to it, and a strong trough digs into the western states, I have a request for you this morning. We continue to be in a dry weather pattern.  What do you think will happen this winter?

  1. How much snow do you think will fall?
  2. Will we have above or below average precipitation?
  3. Will temperatures be below, above, or near average?
  4. Add in your thoughts on what you think will happen during the winter months?

I will be writing up a story for our website as we prepare for our winter forecast that will come out on November 19th.  And, I will go over the details of this weather pattern later this afternoon.

Have a great day and thank you for participating.  Apparently, The Weather Channel is calling this storm Winter Storm Athena, or something like that.  We have named our winter storm systems the past few years, of course last year we didn’t because there weren’t any. What do you think of what TWC is doing?

Check out what is going on late this afternoon!

Gary

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40 comments to Your Winter Forecast Thoughts

  • trailrider

    Gary,
    Why doesn’t the blog link show up on the weather page? Tried fire fox and explorer.

    As far as winter: Still in a drought, above average temps, but we will see one major snow event though.

  • davidmcg

    Winter? We’ll definitely have one, we always do. Precip – below average, the drought will continue. Temps – slightly above. For some the temps will appear to be much above and to others temps will appear to be much below. But I think the temp fluctuations will be extreme. A system will move out into the plains and ahead temps will climb for a couple of days, as the system passes it will cool for a few days and moderate/stabilize just ahead of the next system. The real weather factor this year, at least NW of KC/north of Topeka for us out here will be the wind, again. In the city you don’t notice the wind the way we do here in farm land, it will rip your hide off and many times a south wind is worse than a northerly wind out here. Another threat for us out here is the freezing over ponds. Ponds are so low, many will completely freeze over. The summer drought of 2012 will be remembered, now the winter drought of 2012/13 will be remembered.

  • f00dl3

    1 – Snowfall – 6 to 10 inches in the metro
    2 – Precipitation – Below average.
    3 – Temperatures – Below average.

    4 – Many clipper type systems and persistant high pressure has been commonplace this fall – which is also the reason for our lack of precip. Higher pressure tends to be tied in with colder temperatures during the winter, combined with very low soil moisture – should equal several significant cold spells. Most of our precipitation will be from fast moving systems, mostly from clippers.

  • dogsinkc

    Why does everyone keep thinking that temps will be above average for the winter? From what I’ve seen they were below for October, are now, and will be (except the next three days).

  • Farmgirl

    Brett had mentioned TWC naming storms a few weeks ago and several comments were made regarding the naming convention. Might want to go and revisit that particular blog post.

    Here is my guess at this winter’s forecast: Below average precip- 10 inches or less of snow, 1 ice storm. Below Avg. temps with wild temp swings.

  • frigate

    I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to know precip will be below average this season…the question is how far below average? I think we will have more snow events (no snow storms) then last year…most will be in the .5 – 1.5 inch range so not expecting more than 12 inches of snow total. I think temps will be much below average, thus very few rain events beacuse there won’t be much moisture to work with, however because of this, I think we may have several freezing drizzle situations this year.

  • KCDebi

    Cold, dry and boring :(

  • mukustink

    1. I believe we will have under 10 inches of snow this year.

    2. Drought continues below average precip.

    3. Temps will be near average this year.

    4. I don’t see much happening this season. I beleive it will be another boring winter here. I think we will see one ice event just because we haven’t had one in some time. Have a great day.

  • Fred Souder

    I am not as convinced as most of you that the LRC is a great predictive tool for regional climate, or that weather trends don’t change. Just like with stocks and mutual funds, past performance is not a predictor of future trends, at least in my experience. So, for my prediction, rather than look at weather trends, I am going to look at weather prediction trends. Lezac and team did a reasonable job of predicting winter weather 2 and 3 years ago, but not good last year. 66%. Same stats for Almanac and Weatherbell, who also missed last year significantly.
    On the other hand NOAA only got 1/3 years predicted reasonably for our region, for 33%. Now, the MET office in brittain managed to miss the last 5 years entirely, 4 years which they missed both precip and temp completely. Since Met office is saying that central US will be slighly warmer and drier than normal, and they are wrong 100% of the time with temp and 80% of the time with precip, I am going to go with much colder than average and normal precip.

  • Fred Souder

    The TWC naming storms thingy is a gimmick to drum up viewer interest.
    I’ll be interested to see your forecast for the winter. Ice, in particular.

  • Is’nt “looking into the future” just another form of sorcery??? Why do we play games of witch craft??? Is it because we ,as a human race, fear the unknown??? There is no scientific proof of any “reasonable” forecasting,beyond 10-12 days out(I may be even stretching that many days)…Maybe people should just ‘stick with what they know,and STOP trying to perform tasks that they are not capable of performing’…If sorcery is just for entertainment,it’s fine w/ me, but if your serious about “looking into the future”, I recommend a Palm Reader… Signed, Kevin..President of KFC(Kevins Forecasting Center). Have a good 1 … :)

    • Fred Souder

      President K,
      What you are saying cannot possibly be true. I have irrefutable logic on my side: Our government spends $8,000,000,000 plus some loose change each year on climate modelling and predictions. They would never do anything that is a waste of money. Therefore, you must be wrong.

  • Speaking of the TWC… Thier reality shows,”freaks me out”… Ice Pilots, Lifeguard!, but the one that blows my mind ,,Ice Hunters…. Ice Hunters would be MUCH funner, if they could get Honey Boo Boo to shoot the ice burgs…They could call the show,”BOO BOO Burgs”…Now that I would watch. :)

  • thomasmidwest

    I say we have 16 to 20 inches of snow. Average precip, and average temps. Something gotta give sooner or later

  • mowermike

    Just because it’s been dry, doesn’t mean it will remain dry. It has to change someday.(i’m not saying that it will get wet) Last fall many were calling for a dry winter based off the dry fall, well, that wasn’t even close as last winter was our wettest period in the last 16 months.(compared to average for any given period)

    I think the southern storm track will be in play at times this winter giving us some decent chances of some dynamic storms.

    I think air mass changes will be frequent(much like the one coming up this weekend, 70’s to 30’s in less then 24 hours)If the AO continues negative trends, some of the cold spells could last many days if snow were to be on the ground)

    A few good clippers that drop quick accumulating snows
    A few WAA events that drop some accumulating snow

    Likely some more common winter storms (for KC standards) this year, the ones that start out with rain and are followed by a mix and then as 1-3 inch snow.

    All in all:

    21.6 inches of snow
    above average precip.
    near normal temps
    2 icing events(1 moderate)
    Highest temp 68
    Lowest temp -9

    Some drought improvement for our area by spring.(for those of you that like to twist up inaccurate claims, I’M NOT PREDICTING AN END TO THE DROUGHT, JUST SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 6 MONTHS)

    • Theo

      Good disclaimer. You and Gary said several times the drought was over last summer.

      How much is SOME improvement? That’s really going out on a limb.

      • mowermike

        Just saying better then the last several months.

        To be exact, average to above for the next 6 months(by the start of Spring) That would be improvemnet over the last 6 months.

  • sedsinkc

    1. Below avg. snowfall, 8-12″ total, most from clipper systems
    2. Below avg. precipitation, 60-75% of normal
    3. Below avg. temperatures, -2 to -4 degrees below avg.
    4. Forecast based on continuation of prevailing long wave patterns this fall and assumes the AO will go negative at times this winter.
    Wildcard is we could get a few lows over the entire winter that dig into the southwest US. If these lows take favorable tracks, could cause more snow or ice here. If lows track to our south, we get mostly missed.

    • sedsinkc

      Should have said, if Southwest lows track well to our south, like over Texas or southern Oklahoma, we get mostly missed. We need them to track slightly south of us, like over NE Oklahoma/SE Kansas and SW Missouri, to get optimal snowfall here.

  • Yikes…Looking at the last couple of runs of the EC, A snow storm(?) is possible over the TX/OK panhandle/SW.KS. area Fri.the 16th…This is a deep cut-off low w/ a negative tilt,and 850mb.temps.,at,or about freezing,…It should be interesting to see what the next EC run will look like…It will up load at 12:56pm….The GFS is not on board w/ this solution yet…the GFS is more open w/ it, and does not have the same,cold core,dynamics…

  • StormyWX

    1. I’ll go with 10-12″. I still believe that we will have below average snowfall for this winter, but CERTAINLY, MUCH higher than last year for sure! It’s almost impossible not to.

    2. Below average, although I think it’s possible we might catch up in the precipitation totals just a little bit, however not much, so the drought will continue sadly.

    3. Slightly above to average. It’ll be another warm one I feel, as evident by what we’ve already had so far this month and other meteorological predictions. However I do strongly believe we’ll have some (meaning at least one or two) really cold periods or snaps (meaning just a few days).

    4. It’ll be sort of boring again, but I do believe that there will be some surprises in store for us, so we should never count anything out. After all, we live in Kansas and Missouri which is part of the heart of this nation. The most interesting, violent and surprising weather in the whole world can occur here. We’ve seen it happen before in the past too where it’ll be 70 one day, 50 the next, then 30 and snowing the day after that, followed by 50 degrees then two days of temperatures below 20 degrees for a high. Now while that maybe is a tad bit dramatic, stuff similar to it really isn’t at all impossible in my opinion.

    No ice storms. Period. The end. There on that one.
    No really big snow storms here, but I do think it’s possible we’ll come across one nice big one.
    An occasional cold stretch or two, with one I feel being really intense.

  • Kole Christian

    18 inches of snow
    Below average temperatures
    Average precipitation

  • McCabe58

    18-24 inches of the white stuff! At least one icing event. Below average temperatures. Normal to a little above average precip, of course the drought will continue because we are so far behind. BUT I think we finally start to make a turn for the better.

    P.s. did that “storm” that possibly could have given us a passing snow shower on the backside this weekend go poof?

    • Kole Christian

      Storm should still happen, don’t know if we’ll get snow or not though. It will be cold enough, just a matter of timing

  • thomasmidwest

    Latest gfs has over an inch of rain here lets Hope it pans out this time

  • stl78

    19 inches. 2 moderate snows of 4 + will make up a majority. A few clippers ( 1-3) will make up the rest. Ice will b a possibility. Temps will b below avg and precip about avg.

  • Theo

    17.5 inches of snow. One snow event over 5″.
    Average precip.
    A 1/4 to 1/2 inch ice event (one only) in the 5-county metro area.
    Coldest morning: -7.
    Coldest high: 12.
    Continued drought throughout 2013.
    Continued economic misery through 2016.
    Total U.S. debt north of 23 trillion by 2017.

  • The EC is looking more like last winters cycle,cut-off lows…

  • stl78

    Trip was great tush….thx! Rain held off till the last hr or so and by then no one cared!

  • storm00

    $$$ is good, what a joke