Good morning bloggers,
It may look cloudy and cold outside, but we have a warmer tropical air mass that has been transported northward into Kansas City overnight and into early this morning. Temperatures warmed up to 66 degrees before sunrise. This low level humid air has been the fuel for a few very heavy to strong thunderstorms already this morning. One of them has been tracking over the driest area across northern Missouri.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity today. This first map shows the slight risk area which does include Kansas City. So far the only marginally severe thunderstorm was tracking into Livingston county just west of Chillicothe between 7 and 8 AM and this is just out of the slight risk area. We are expecting new thunderstorm development this morning and there may be a few very heavy thunderstorms that become strong to marginally severe. These should be developing in a band just west of Kansas City and then they will be tracking eastward. Let’s see where these develop, but as I am writing this a band of showers and thunderstorms was increasing across central Kansas and south into Oklahoma.
Warm & humid air surged in from the south overnight and this is now the fuel for the thunderstorms. Take a look at that surface map, above. We are only about half way through this three day storm that has already produced some nice rainfall totals. Here are the rainfall totals from Tuesday:
Conditions will become favorable for thunderstorm development between now and noon as a disturbance rotates around the main storm system. And, then later tonight the main storm system will move into Kansas and combine with an advancing cold front to bring wide spread rain with a few very heavy thunderstorms into Thursday morning. This disturbance will pass through in time for it to dry out for the Trick or Treating tomorrow evening. It will be close but the rain should clear the viewing area by 6 PM tomorrow. Here is the additional rainfall forecast between now and noon tomorrow:
The final rainfall totals may approach or exceed four inches in spots with everyone in the viewing area likely getting at least an inch of rain…..
The storm approaching on Thursday morning, the main storm, is strong and becoming negatively tilted as it approaches us during the morning tomorrow. This means there will likely be tremendous lifting, rising motion, to create very heavy rain and thunderstorms. That will be the finale! We have thunderstorms heading our way this morning and they will arrive before noon.
Have a great day and we will write up a new blog entry this evening.