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Winter’s Reality Returns Tonight

Good Sunday bloggers,

We have seen some pretty decent weather the last few days, very unlike the end of January.  That all changes later today and tonight as a strong cold front and disturbance head our way from the north and northwest. Now, it will warm up Tuesday and Wednesday before more sustained cold settles in. Also, what about the elusive snow? There are three chances we are now monitoring, tonight, Thursday and February 4th. Yes, February 4th, the four year anniversary of our last 3″ snowstorm.

Let’s go through the changes and snow chances.

Here is the weather timeline through midnight.

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SUNDAY 3 PM: The colder air will be moving in as clouds thicken and north winds increase. Temperatures will range from the 30s north to around 50° south.

1

SUNDAY NIGHT 6 PM TO 1 AM: Temperatures will be dropping as north winds blow 15-25 mph. There will likely be an area of snow tracking from northern to central and eastern Missouri with a dusting to 1″ possible. Sprinkles and flurries will be possible in KC. We will have to watch this for a southwest shift of 50 miles. If this happens, then KC could see minor snow accumulations.  The chance is 20% of that happening.

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MONDAY MORNING: It will be clear and cold with lows in the upper teens to low 20s as the wind decreases. If there is any leftover moisture, then black ice is possible. As it stands now, KC will not see enough moisture for any slick spots. It is going to take more than a trace of rain or snow to create black ice by Monday morning.

3

MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be mostly sunny with a light wind as highs climb to 30°-35°. So, a typical end of January day, just 20-25 degrees colder than it has been recently.

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TUESDAY: The wind will increase from the south and our highs will rise to the 40s. It will be mostly sunny, but clouds to the northwest will increase Tuesday night. We will try to hold off the clouds for the Super Blue Blood Moon. Wednesday will be cloudy, mild and calm with highs around 50°.

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THURSDAY: This is our second chance of snow as colder air heads back south. Right now it looks like this snow will stay across southern Missouri, missing KC. The chance is 20% it forms farther north and we get in on some snow.

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FEBRUARY 4, 2018: The third chance of snow arrives on the four year anniversary of our last 3″ snowstorm. The GFS has had three straight runs of showing a significant snow on this Superbowl Sunday. The ECMWF did not have much. Is this right? Well, the pattern forecast this day does support snow and it totally fits the LRC. Let’s take a look.

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FEBRUARY 4, 2018: GFS FORECAST:

There are three main features to highlight. #1 is a ridge off of the west coast of North America and this forces a system into the Pacific Northwest, feature #2. Feature #3 is a deep trough/vortex that extends from the North Pole to the Midwest. This feature delivers Arctic air south so that feature #2 can run along the south edge of the Arctic air and create snow.

FEB 4, 2018 LABEL

DECEMBER 19, 2017: 47 DAY PRIOR TO FEBRUARY 4TH, 2018: Remember, we are in a 44-51 day cycle, centered on 46-47 days.

This is pretty amazing to us, as you can see features 1,2,3 match up pretty well.  The features were there, but it did not come together for any snow. We did turn much colder a few days later.

DEC 19, 2017 LABEL

NOVEMBER 2, 2017: 94 DAYS BEFORE FEBRUARY 4, 2018: 

Here we go again, features 1, 2 and 3 matched up with where the GFS is forecasting them to be located on February 4th. Again these did not come together to bring snow, but it did turn much colder a few days later.

November 2, 2017 LABEL

So, is the 3″+ snowstorm on the GFS for February 4th to be believed? These three features open the door for the snowstorm as we said above, but we are 0 for 2 in it coming together. So, at this time it is fun to look at it and we know the pattern fits the LRC, but will the specifics line up the third time for snow?  The “third time is a charm”! Right?

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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