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Winter Storm Watch: Saturday Night-Sunday Morning

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the KC metro area. This is for Saturday night into Sunday morning.  I am not as bullish on snowfall totals as there is still concern for the northern edge of this system being a bit too close for comfort. I am still expecting the potential and likely 2″ to 5″ snowfall accumulation over the KC metro area. The only way it will go over the 4 or 5 inches is if the main disturbance tracks closer to KC and is a bit more organized than most of the models are showing.

Winter Watch

The Winter Storm Watch extends from parts of western Kansas east across the KC metro area and into central Missouri east to western Illinois.  We have had a few I-70 snowstorms this winter and this looks like another one. Kansas City may very well be closer to the northern edge of the storm, and this is one of my concerns. How close will this northern edge be?  Will it be on the Iowa border, or will it be near Cameron, MO?  The closer this northern edge is locate, the lower the amounts are possible, and if it is indeed near the Iowa border, than some of the higher amounts are possible.

Snow ForecastThis is the snowfall forecast I am going with at the moment.  This part of the LRC, the cycling weather pattern, has produced in all previous cycles. In cycle 1, this part of the pattern produced the drought busting and drought ending 10 inches of rain. In cycle 2, KC had the blizzard where we went from rain and above nearly 60 degrees in the early morning hours of November 25th, to a blizzard by 1 PM, flash freezing, and horrible driving conditions. In LRC cycle 3, it was the tailgating experience at Arrowhead for the Colts-Chiefs game where the Chiefs finally won a game at Arrowhead, and 6″ of snow fell during the three hour tailgating experience due to the upper low forming and taking a perfect track to produce that heavy band. It was a narrow heavy band that happened to hit the south metro to Arrowhead Stadium.  And, now we are at day 1 of Cycle 4 of this years pattern.  There is only one blemish on our weather forecast record, as I see it this season. I thought it would warm up into the 60s ahead of this system, and instead we completed February rather cold, and that warm up will be delayed.  Other than that, we have predicted each one of these storms accurately, picking out the features that would impact KC. There is another feature to find as we approach Saturday night. Where will the main system track? If it is a bit more organized and farther north, the amounts would be increased. And, if it is just a bit farther south, that northern edge will be too close for comfort, for us snow enthusiasts.

Sunny The Weather Dog is hoping for higher snowfall totals.  Here is our forecast for a couple locations, north of I-70, and south of I-70:

North KC Snowfall

Olathe Snowfall

If you break this down, I am forecasting 2-3 inches over the north KC metro area, and 3-5 inches over the south metro area.  If I see any evidence of more or less, then we will update this forecast.  It may seem that I am being a bit conservative, and I am just not on the higher snowfall amount bandwagon at this moment. Those snowfall probabilities are where I am at right now.  So, I am predicting around 3″ north to 4″ south. Remember, Kansas City had gone almost five years without having 3″ in one storm before November 25th. This would be the fourth one, and three of them almost exactly on cycle, November 25th, January 12th, and this weekend.  Yes, this storm was predicted 100 days ago to happen around the first couple days of March.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:  Winter Storm Watch Saturday Night-Sunday

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with light winds.  A great day for a walk with your dog.  High: 40°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with a wind shift to the north to northeast around 10 mph.  Low: 20°
  • Saturday:  Mostly cloudy with a northeast breeze around 10 mph.  High:  31°
  • Saturday night:  A 100% chance of snow, possibly heavy at times, especially south. Increasing north winds 10-25 mph.  Low:  13°
  • Sunday:  A 100% chance of snow, tapering off to flurries. Total accumulations of 2″ to 5″ likely.  Some blowing and drifting of the fluffier snow is possible with north winds gusting to 25 mph.
  • Monday morning:   Frigid.  Clearing sky with a low of -3°

Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.  Let’s monitor the latest data and have a great conversation on the Weather2020 blog.  Here is the link:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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