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WINTER STORM WATCH

Good morning bloggers,

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued by the NWS, and this includes the KC metro area.  Now, if this is updated to a Winter Storm Warning anywhere in the KC viewing area, it would be the first time in 1,061 days, take a look:

Screen Shot 2018-11-23 at 5.35.36 AM

I calculated the date 1061 days ag0, and it comes out to December 28, 2015.  I just checked and it was 31 degrees on that day with 2.3″ of snow.  I do not believe we have had more than 2.3″ of snow since in one day.  So, the Winter Storm Warning streak continues at this moment, but we are under a Winter Storm Watch for Sunday’s storm.

The models are still all over the place with possible solutions.  Here is one forecast map from last night’s NAM model.  The new model run is faster and about the same, and targeting KC by 9 AM to 2 PM:

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The new NAM model came in with an even stronger solution.  Some models still have KC on the southern edge of this storm, so I will wait on the new data to finish this blog entry.

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This is this mornings NAM model, showing the 500 mb flow and vorticity.   The X is a “vort max” showing the center of the main disturbance.  It is likely good that this is not a full upper low yet, and this provides KC to be in the right spot. If it were a fully developed upper low we would have to worry about the dry slot, and other problems.  This is still SUSPECT however, and we will see if the other models come up with similar solutions on the track of this system.  If this is correct, take a look at what the snow output indicated below:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Cloudy with a few showers this morning.  There may be a few breaks of sunshine later.  Rainfall amounts of 0.01″ to 0.10″ possible.  High:  55°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny with a light southeast breeze later in the day.  High:  60°
  • Sunday:  Rain changing to snow and windy.  Blowing snow is possible in areas that see accumulations.  A dusting to 4″ possible, with higher amounts farther north.  There will be a southern cut off line where no snow or just a few flakes will fall.  This line will be near KC, it could be two or three counties south, or two or three counties north.  Temperatures dropping from the 40s into the 20s.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Click on the blog at Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Last night’s Plaza Lighting went very well.  The Mayor of KC and Tony, this 8 year old kid, flipped the switch perfectly.  I would like to thank everyone who celebrated this holiday tradition with us.  Have a great day!

Gary

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