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WINTER STORM WARNING!

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the entire viewing area!  Significant amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will occur across all areas on Thursday.  I will go over the difference between sleet and freezing rain below.

Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Thickening clouds & staying dry.  East to northeast winds 5-15 mph. Wind chills near zero this morning.  High: 28°
  • 6 PM-Midnight:  Staying dry with easterly winds 10-20 mph.  Temperatures between 24° and 28°
  • Midnight-6 AM:  Snow and sleet spreading across the area reaching Kansas City by sometime between 3 and 6 AM.  Low:  23°
  • Thursday:  Significant amounts of snow and sleet. Some freezing rain is also possible for areas farther south.  High:  28°
  • Thursday Evening Rush Hour:  Snow tapering off to flurries or freezing drizzle, but likely continuing into the late evening hours with some minor additional accumulation possible.  Temperatures between 28° and 30°

Total accumulations in the Kansas City metro area are expected to range from 5 to 10 inches. Thunderstorms are likely with this system, and these thunderstorms will even be likely in the all snow areas.  The snowfall and sleet rates from the thunderstorms will likely be significantly enhanced and lead to some locally higher amounts.  Snowfall rates could reach 3″ per hour in the heavier areas of precipitation from the expected thunderstorms. So, there may be a few spots that get near or over one foot of snow.

Here is our snow/sleet forecast map:

114

Weather Discussion:

A strong storm system is near Los Angeles, CA this morning.  The track of this storm is very important and will help decide which areas have all snow, a mixture of sleet and snow, all sleet, or possibly some freezing rain.  Here is the satellite picture taken at 6 AM this morning:

1

If you are located along and northwest of the main upper level storm track the precipitation will likely be in the form of snow for the duration of Thursday’s storm which will allow for higher snowfall accumulations.  Southeast of the path of the main upper level storm will likely see at least a brief changeover to sleet and this will cut into some of the accumulations. The exact track of the upper level storm, now near Los Angeles, is still a bit uncertain. It does look like the track of this system will come very close to Kansas City.  With the storm just now beginning to turn our way the exact track is still uncertain.

2

The above map shows the forecast track of the upper level storm from the 06z (Midnight) GFS model run.  Look how close it comes to Kansas City. It will likely go either just north or just south of this track. South of the track of the upper level storm a thin layer of above freezing temperatures above the ground will be forced into the storm and this is why there will be some significant and heavy sleet southeast of the track. Farther south there is still a chance of some freezing rain.  let’s go over the differences:

Definitions:

  • Sleet: Ice pellets or frozen rain. It is already in the form of ice and will not collect on power lines. It will accumulate on the ground more like snow. It is really more like very small hailstones. Sleet is a frozen raindrop.
  • Freezing Rain:  This is really just rain, but temperatures are below freezing near the ground. The liquid rain drops freeze on contact with surfaces and can accumulate to create major problems.  This water freezes on powerlines and all other surfaces creating  power outages and very slick driveways, roads, sidewalks, and other surfaces

Fortunately we are not expecting much freezing rain from this storm. We are expecting most of the precipitation to be in the form of snow and sleet. There may still be an area farther south that ends up with some freezing rain and this will likely be south of an Oak Grove, MO to Pleasanton, KS line. We will be monitoring these precipitation types closely.

We will update the blog later this afternoon or evening.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading  the Action Weather Blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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322 comments to WINTER STORM WARNING!

  • Freeze Miser

    Bring it on!

  • Kcchamps

    Gary,

    are you going to up your snowfall forecast??

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_51HR.gif”

    latest GFS snow map show 10-12″ for the metro

  • davidmcg

    Welcome to the party KC, they put us out here in McLouth under a warning yesterday afternoon. 10″+ is what they are giving us. Couple that with the winds and out here in farm country that gives us 4 foot + snowdrifts. 4X4 doesn’t help much when you run into one of those.

  • Kole Christian

    I’m ready to see the last few model runs, I hope we get a foot, so unlikely though. Going to be a good storm though.

  • kellyinkc

    About time for the warning. Gary, is the in house model still showing that epic 15 inches of snow? :)
    At work they were asking how many hotel rooms they would need to put us up in.

  • Kcchamps

    Channel 4 minus 1 is showing 12-15″ for the metro

  • Kcchamps

    Brett said he thinks the 7-10″ and 9-12″ totals may need to be shifted further South and east a little and up the current forecast projections.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Brett thinks the snow won’t end until around Friday morning…how come Gary says it will be tapering off around Thursday rush hour?

      The map Brett just showed also had a much higher chance of sleet way farther north than the 540 mbar line currently indicates.

      I think north of I70 will be a mostly snow event and totals will be up to that foot mark in some areas. Also my prediction for Platte City is 10-12 inches of snow.

      • I didn’t say it will be ending, it will just begin to taper off. There will likely be more light snow/freezing drizzle through the evening to early Friday morning. I will add in that statement to clarify.

  • plowboy87

    That channel 4 minis 1 has 20 inches for kc is that we’ll over doing it?

    • HeatMiser

      I don’t think they even know if it will be that much, that’s just what one of the in-house comptuter models is showing.

  • jayhawkX

    It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas… 2009!

  • Kcchamps

    TWC local on the 8s is saying 8-12″ for where I live in Independence,Mo

  • Sweet! Can’t wait for the moisture to hit! I’m also impressed this morning the trolls must be sleeping. I read this blog just about everyday. I don’t post very often but I have to say that it’s funny how certain people in here post the most meaningless crap. Also the banter, nerves, and post count increase in direct proportion to the approaching storms intensity.

    BTW Gary I think the big snows we had 2 and 3 years ago crashed the blog and comments went to a 300 county.

    Keep up the good work Gary and the team. You guys take criticism so well and I think your forecasts are great. I like the amateurs on here too and I think they give plenty of nice data as well.

    Any chance we could get a UP or DOWN buttons for posts so we can start showing some folks on here that what they say is being read and can get a little feedback from the rest of us that don’t post regularly? It probably won’t help matters too much but those up/down buttons should cut down the need for others responding to them which adds yet more clutter and unneeded posts.

  • bigmac64055

    KCCHAMPS im right here with you in independence….if we get little or no sleet….we will get a foot and very possibly a little more!

  • Bananny

    I honestly hope the schools take a cautionary approach and just keep students home tomorrow (no I am not a teacher nor do I have kids in school)

    • HeatMiser

      That was a silly thing to say, of course they will. They have done so for a lot less than this. Catch up!

  • EagleBeak

    UP or DOWN arrows don’t work. They just add another dimension to the trolling. (arrow wars) It also adds posts ABOUT arrows.

    Just look at kansas.com and the weblog there. It is a distraction from discussion of whatever the blogs normal content is.

    Best response to a troll is hit the ignore button. Do not feed.

  • Dobber

    Biblical snowfall

  • Anyone concerned with the 18z GFS showing the 540 up by Platte city? I think the cold will be set up good, but can see why sleet keeps getting mentioned. Next week is looking fairly active. We might actually be sick of snow by March. lol Gary, I think your forecast is verifying nicely, for end of Feb. Nice work!

    • Scott,

      This is why there will likely be sleet! If the vort max passes to our northwest we will have a very good chance of sleet cutting into the totals. This is why we are forecasting 5 to 10 inches of accumulation. If it doesn’t change to sleet the amounts would be higher.

  • yewtrees

    Looking at the radar, the snow is currently inching its way toward Topeka and will get to KC before midnight. Ready or not, here it comes!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      According to Brett that moisture you are seeing wont make it to KC area but will be sucked back into the actual storm which is still in lower Cali and Arizona. The storm won’t get here until Thursday morning.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    It’s too bad all that moisture to he south won’t make it up here for a pre snow before the snow. That is some serious moisture maybe the NAM wasn’t lying about moisture totals

  • numbers

    Already starting to snow here in Salina. Supposed to get more than a foot of snow tonight.

  • JayhawkGirl

    Gary…. I manage a dental practice in Leawood. Would you recommend the proactive approach? Should we reschedule now, or wait to see if things actually materialize? I trust you, but have a boss to convince. :-)

  • sedsinkc

    New NAM 12z run rolling in…up to hour 27, storm looks weaker on this run than on the 00z run which is the last one I looked at last night. Slows precip onset down a little more, now starts in KC after 6 a.m. but before 9 a.m. tomorrow.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Yep looking like up to 10 inches still though.

    • sedsinkc

      New NAM looks similar to last night’s in that it gives KC a period of 3 or 4 hours of sleet or sleet/snow mix at the height of the storm around mid-day into the early afternoon. St. Jo remains in the all snow zone.

    • sedsinkc

      Track of ULL and vort max on this NAM run is slightly more to the NW of KC than last night’s run. Thus the real potential for a sleet changeover in KC. Total liquid precip in KC thru midnight tomorrow night still around 1 inch. 12z GFS will start loading in about an hour.

  • frigate

    As a non lover of snow and cold…at least there is only a month until Spring so will try to grin and bear whats coming. Gary,I’m excited and anxious to see your Spring forcast next week!!

    • MikeT1

      i’m with you frigate. hating this. hate to shovel it, drive in it, deal with it in general. love the moisture, not this kind. of course, better than freezing rain too. it’s winter in the midwest, what are ya gonna do?

  • R-Dub

    Dewpoint in Olathe right now is 4, with a NE wind feeding in more dry air. It’s gonna take a while for the precip to get here.

  • Sheryl3

    What will the wind be like with this storm?

  • mwnavyvet

    is it supposed to snow?

  • mban112

    Will there be a point today, model-wise, when the sleet possibility for KC might be less likely? I want as much snow as possible, but this sleet possibility makes me nervous that it’ll be way less than I’d like.

    • R-Dub

      Not really. Even if they suddenly shifted like that, it wouldn’t be trustworthy. We’re at the point where watching what’s happening is better than watching models.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Hey another channel is live with the crews preparing for storm…lol. So it begins. MoDOT is moving salt around.

  • mudnyri

    My kids are so excited about the snow. I just hope it does not all go poof, like so many times in the past. I have already seen salt trucks out laying down salt.

  • mudnyri

    The dew point from my weather station has gone up from 35% to 53% since 5am.

  • TWC says 18-24 for me. NWS says around 18. Just started snowing here at 8am.

  • R-Dub

    I’m still thinking 4-6″ of snow and 1/2-1″ of sleet for downtown OP.

    • kcpurpledog

      I think I’m leaning your way R-Dub. I’ve seen these intense storms kind of “peter out” after dumping so much in central and western ks, and up in to western NE. It’s not going to go poof, but robbed of the abundant moisture due to slowing down before it gets here could really make it lose its punch.

      • R-Dub

        That’s still a good amount of moisture…up to 0.5″ liquid equivalent for both snow and sleet so 0.75″-1″ total. Sleet only goes 2:1 so it really cuts down snow totals. It would also be more snow than we had all of last winter.

        So I’m not exactly expecting it to peter out. It just won’t be a super efficient snow maker for southern parts of the metro.

  • fire508

    I would not worry to much about the 540 line. It appears that it will only be north of KC for a short period of time. Which means that it might not be deep enough for a complete sleet transition. Also with it being this close the RAP will come more into play. Plus one need to take in account ALL the models when it gets this close.

  • f00dl3

    If you look at the NAM Hi Res from the NCEP – kind of suggests that during the heaviest precip it will be all sleet. A period of light snow followed by intense convective sleet then tapering off to light snow or freezing drizzle with little accumulation – maybe an inch or two of snow on top of an inch or two of sleet.

  • mtngirl

    I’ve never posted on here before but always read everyone’s comments. I have a serious question for everyone and I’d like your advice. My husband is leaving for Lousiana around 6 this evening. Would he be better off driving south through MO/AR or through OK/TX? He will be driving all night and we need the route with the best weather mainly in terms of ice. Thanks.

  • TEXAS-MIKE

    AFPILOT what are you thinking for us in Platte city? All snow or a mix!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Mainly all snow with a short period of sleet mixed with snow possible during heaviest portions. But we are in the cold air and the 540 line throughout. 10-11 inches of snow with no sleet 8-10 if we have a period of sleet.

  • R-Dub

    It’s going to be interesting. Hard to trust the models too much on these fine-scale questions like where and when the snow/sleet line sets up.

  • kstatewildcats44

    Latest NWS accumulation probability map has increased to an 80-90% chance the Topeka will see 12″+. Whoa.

  • kcpurpledog

    Does anyone remember (maybe other than the 2 big storms of 2009 and 2011) where such a large area of the country is under WS Warnings and forecasting 6-10 inches (some are up higher than that, but the entire area I’m referring to is in a 6-10)? Does it make sense that in the center of the country the Gulf of Mexico stays open that long of a period to give everyone that much snow?

    • stjoeattorney

      not in a very long time has this part of the US had a large storm 300 miles wide.

      • kcpurpledog

        St. Joe, I think this thing is 500 miles wide. Denver is now in on it (more just east of Denver, but they are getting some from the system). That is amazing to me if this actually happens and that wide of an area from the last counties in SW KS and SE C0 all the way up diagonally to Western NE and east to SE S Dakota and Central MN all get 6+ inches of snow. I don’t know if I have ever seen that before.

    • nofluer

      From my relatively ignorant background, taking a stab at it… When I look at weather systems, I pay special attention to the jet stream, because I believe (rightly or wrongly) that it is the main carrier of moisture to our area – or preventer. Presently the JS loops through the SW US and in W Texas seems to diverge into two tracks, the one along the Southern storm track that Gary showed a few days ago along the southern tier of States then NNE along the Atlantic coast, and the other track NNE through NW Texas and right up to SE NE/SW IA, and then tracks easterly, which is essentially the track I’d expect for this storm.

      Since ordinarily the Jet Stream is high up in Canada this time of year, this would seem to be a possible game changer for this storm – funneling the Northern Equitorial Zone Westerly Trade winds moisture from the Gulf (shoved into the Western Gulf pocket) Northwards instead of along the Southern track – as per usual and as per earlier this year. (Think back along this fall and winter when the storms just drenched the Gulf coast then made a curvy track right along the Eastern Seaboard.)

      While I was spooking around global maps this AM, I also noted that we have a new active La Nina that became active early this year… whatever that means.

      Summary – we have a 300 mile front because there’s nothing out there to hem it in and a whoooole lotta wet stuff moving quickly across the land.

  • sedsinkc

    Hope this link works. It shows the farthest north extent of sleet (orange) during the upcoming storm from latest NAM run. The sleet/snow line runs E-W right thru the heart of KC. This is forecast at 1 pm tomorrow. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=031″

  • f00dl3

    The 540 line at +33 hours on the high res NAM is straight through the center of the city, but at +33 hours the simulated radar view shows the bulk of the precip east of the metro and us in the subsidance / dry slot.

    You have to remember that those views are for the 3 hours leading to when you look at the 1000-500 charts, the simulated radar view shows the projected precip placement at the time.

    It’s possible that even after that 540 line moves through anything in that area of subsidance would be freezing drizzle.

  • stjoeattorney

    If someone in the area (within 50 miles of St. Joseph) does not receive in excess of the foot of snow the Kansas City’s are 6+ inches of snow this will be the biggest bust ever. All local broadcast media, all area National Weather Service offices are within a couple of inches on this event.

    I am much happier note, the party will be in full force and effect in 24 hours.

  • Dwight

    The radar shows snow already just a few counties south of the metro and heading north this morning. I know this is NOT the main storm but could it provide an early snowfall and up our total? It really seems we will have snow in the 435 loop by 6pm or earlier tonight.

  • WeatherNerd

    12Z GFS not as encouraging. However it is about time to turn to the radar and RAP. Either way this thing turns out it will be fun to track.

  • TEXAS-MIKE

    radar shows it creeping closer and closer unless thats not hitting the ground or virga

    • Unstay_Bill

      Good site for determining ground truth of radar. “http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/”

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    What if the snow on radar doesn’t start receding? It is still creeping closer and closer… Could it hit places like Paola, Osawatomie, etc, but not reach the city before receding back to the storm?

  • melafinatu

    Gary, got to give you credit where credit is due. In your winter forecast(which you can google) you called for the New England area as one of the “hotspots” for winter weather. Hmm, I seem to remember a few snowstorms in Boston recently of historic preportions. Then, you said that even though we are not in one of the “hotspots”, there would be a few times where the “hotspot” would target us.

    I was a skeptic of the LRC, now i’m a believer.

  • sedsinkc

    Ugh. New GFS has the storm semi-splitting around the KC region, only .5 to .75 liquid here. This map is particularly disturbing for local snow lovers. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=036″

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      GFS is not as accurate close in. Regardless it is disturbing as it dropped snow totals by 4-5 inches from NAM.

      Time to start looking at radar and NAM/ RAP. GFS has run it’s course I think

      • sedsinkc

        Too early to look at RAP. Radar is giving people false hope. Those echoes visible on local radar will not get here today. Both models now take the ULL and main vort max a little NW of Kansas City, which puts us in prime position to be at the apex of the dry slot when it sweeps in, meaning our precip gets cut off sooner than areas east and west of here.

    • R-Dub

      Run the map out to 48 hours and it looks a lot better for the region…but the minimum snow total is a bullseye on KC. Ha!

  • is it ok to say it’s “poofing” now? :) lol

  • brucer8774

    Poofed is better. Dryslot will nail us. Another one bites the dust

    WWBD???

  • weatherkcmo

    The poofing begins. Once again we’ll get dry sloted while everyone else gets 6″+.

  • mban112

    I so hope this doesn’t poof out. That woudl truly suck. I’m so, so sick of that happening in KC. Come on snow. Come ONNNNNNNN!

  • Greenstein

    As stated yesterday, Admiral Dryslot reporting for duty – let’s get started!!!

  • mwnavyvet

    gary, what is happening with this storm? looks like recent models have changed from what was expected.

  • tushchaser1

    One weather model does not mean the storm will go “poof.” Seriously, even the NWS is surprised by the consistent nature of the weather models for this storm. If anything, you could consider the GFS an outlier.

    • anshad

      Absolutely! The GFS is like a pair of binoculars. Once the storm gets close, it is no longer accurate, and can start to blur/misrepresent data.

      We are a few hours away from just watching the Radar and using RAP.

      Calm Down Everyone, Everything is going to be fine. :)

  • HeatMiser

    OMG….SOMEONE JUST SAID THE “P” WORD…GRRRR!!!!

  • I would say “poofed” is more pass tense.. we are in the process of Poofing. Wish we could get an update, but don’t expect one until this afternoon.. by then we will all have deflated feelings of hope.

  • RickMckc

    @seds, that map is a snow depth map … this one is a total snowfall.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060″

  • HeatMiser

    lol…all these naysayers….it cracks me up. It’s coming dudes, and we are going to get a lot of snow. Get over it.

  • brucer8774

    So true dapcook!

  • tushchaser1

    I believe that several years ago, someone (who no longer visits the blog on a regular basis) termed the phrase “modelitis.” Perhaps a number of people have been infected with this dreaded diseases and are now losing hope.

    Watching the models all day will only provide a sense of upcoming dread or euphoria. It isn’t healthy and even GL is prone to infection.

    Stay the course.

  • Heat Wave

    Come on Tonganoxie split. Let’s push this storm up and out of the KC area.

  • MikeL

    Maybe we should issue a Poof Watch based on 12z GFS/NAM? ….lol :)

  • brucer8774

    Bring us some sanity Tush!! So true about modelitis…

  • tushchaser1

    If you recall, yesterday included one model run that showed a reduction in overall precipitation. The “p” word was introduced at that time. Subsequent runs of the same model demonstrated that it had previously understated the amount of moisture. The other models continued to be consistent regarding both the track and precipitation possible with the event.

    As weather lovers, it is natural to rise and fall with one run, but you must remember, there are multiple models, some of which have had a better handle on the storm for a longer period of time.

    Stay the course.

  • But you have to agree that we’ve been cheated out of good weather more times than not. It’s not just arbitrary that people easily lack any faith in the forecast.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Brett just said storm is on same track. Stay the course people. Don’t believe the naysayers or slotters. There will be a period of snow forecast where we will see 2.5 in of snow an hour falling.

    Those radar snow bands you are seeing are false and will fall apart prior to reaching the KC metro area. We will see our snow event tomorrow morning around 5-7 am.

    • kcpurpledog

      I’m going to say we will see some very light snow today. I believe there is some actual precip hitting the ground from Manhattan to Topeka and a little south of Topeka. A long way off yes, but I think a bit will make it through.

      • R-Dub

        Dewpoint is 4 right now…this virga may help saturate the atmosphere for later, but we’re not getting measurable precip out of it.

        • kcpurpledog

          Agreed. Just some light flakes that may cozy up to each other in the curbs. Enought to say I saw snow is what I meant.

  • tushchaser1

    dapcook–yes, I agree, as we have often been on the “losing” end of snow or any other interesting weather. I also agree that a weather forecast is never 100% right. However, I will continue to believe the overwhelming consensus of the models showing a storm here and the snowfall it will bring.

    But, if we do miss, the ride has been fun and our lives (however disappointed we are about the weather) will go on and we will look forward to another day of excitement. Such is life with people who like the weather…lots of highs and lows.

  • heavysnow

    Snowing hard in Wichita already

  • I agree with you tush, I will not blast Gary and other people if this ends up being poofinated (love the variances of this word). With today’s technology and ability to share information. We all have the ability to look at the same data that Gary uses to come up with his forecast. As I tell my children all the time when something bad happens “It is what it is and there is nothing you can do about it.”

  • kettle corn

    Love this blog!

  • numbers

    Already accumulating in Salina. Slippery conditions.

    • MikeL

      Thanks for the report numbers!

      Here in SW Topeka nothing yet but the cloud base is lowering…still pretty dry at the surface…dewpoint 5F.

  • Kole Christian

    I am still thinking 6 inches for Parkville.

  • kettle corn

    Could it arrive earlier then anticipated?

  • HeatMiser

    a lot of the snow you see in Kansas on the radar is evaporating before it hits the ground. We won’t get snow until after midnight. The storm itself is still way back in southern california…cool your jets.

    • mwnavyvet

      i am new to the blog and some of the combative language here isn’t necessarily warranted – i’m assuming some people have plans that may or may not be impacted by this pending storm so there is a general angst on what is going to happen. grandma always told me you can win more friends with honey than you can with vinegar!

    • SnowComando

      Central Kansas

      “http://511.ksdot.org/CameraImage.aspx?DeviceID=213506420&Img=cam213506420.jpg”

  • cws9

    Still too dry here in KC metro area.

  • ChiefsFan

    Sedsinkc— Where are you located

  • kettle corn

    My jets have to get hot! How can I cook Kettle Corn if not? Making some Roasted Vanilla Bean to hang out with during the storm!

  • R-Dub

    One of those Tom Petty days, you know, the wai-ait-ing is the hard-est part….

    • tushchaser1

      Nice reference. Not too worried about the weather models today, how about you?

      • R-Dub

        I’m not really worried either way, just interested. I’m good either way; my life would be easier with less but a big snow is always interesting.

        I do think it’s possible the low moves enough NW that we miss out on a huge storm…it’ll still be more than we’ve had since 2011.

  • I noticed that the leading edge of the snow is as close as Garnett. Does this mean we’ll be getting snow earlier than thought? All my friends in Wichita are saying on FB that it’s snowing earlier there than they were told it would start!

    Also, what’s the projections for weather the first weekend in March? I have to take my son via car to Seattle so he can have a transplant up there, and I need to figure out what route will be the safest.

    • mwnavyvet

      i believe the consensus is that this moisture will be pulled in to the main system as it moves closer and recede as the day progresses – i would definitely love to see some snow before the main event though! i hope that you are able to travel without any issues in march and though i don’t know you will say a prayer for your son.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      There may be light flurries in metro area but this is only a minor disturbance out on front of the actual low and the storm that will bring us our snow tomorrow. Yes places west of emporia will receive some snow but not the real start of the main storm.

      Possible bad weather on march 1-3. LRC says we will be okay until about March 15.

      • Oh dear… we have to leave no later than the 2nd to make it up there for his first pre-transplant appointments. :/ Guess I’ll have to be checking close to make sure we avoid any storms as much as we can!

  • When the Vort Max tracks to the west of you, it normally means you get right into the dry slot. The GFS is suggesting this. Guys this is something we must be concerned with.

  • kcweatherGEEK

    It looks like this thing is pooping out?

  • tushchaser1

    Stay the course.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX’

    latest NAM snow map shows 8-12″ for the metro

  • Suzq

    I am new to commenting on the blog, but I follow it frequently. I am a believer in the LRC. I do wonder though if there is enuf data to see longer range trends. My daughter was born Feb 10,1978 and the next day we had 21″ of snow. As she grew up, we found that every 3-4 years she had a snowy birthday. I jst wonder if the cycles form in the fall, could those cycles form similarly every few(or more)
    years too?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif

    latest GFS shows 8-10″ for the metro

  • f00dl3

    We are really banking for a 3-4 hour window of heavy snow to produce 8-12″ of snowfall for our area. That means the snowfall would have to be coming down at 2-3″ / hour rates for 4 hours to meet this expectation. I think this is a bit much? Once this intense band moves out, we will be dry slotted with the subsidance behind the potential convective snow band.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    zoomed in look at the new GFS snow map

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, how’s looking…same?

  • OlatheMatt

    He has been crying sour grapes for a day or so lol

  • HeatMiser

    how’s it looking I meant

  • HeatMiser

    LoL…he’s trying to bring down our buzz.

  • supersubby

    I agree Jacob Honeycutt on your post. When the vort max tracks west of you, the dreaded dry slot begins to be a player. Gfs hints at this!

  • tushchaser1

    I understand you are concerned with the dry slot, you have mentioned it a number of times both today and yesterday. I also understand you are bullish on snow totals and the overall snow event. Your opinion is definitely warranted and welcomed.

    However, as you look at the overall snowfall rates and you look at the model ensemble over the 48 hour period, I believe you over estimating the potential of the dry slot in lowering our snow fall rates.

    My other concern is that you seem to be shouting from the rooftops about a dry slot when others (including every met in Kansas City and those located in P Hill) have not mentioned it.

    How are you making your assumptions?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Brent just on air continues with same forecast if snow sleet possible mix same forecast totals. The low is in southern AZ and will begin to push out today.

    Will have a much better track of the low then.

    Foodie must be always displeased. A foodie always is.

  • f00dl3

    I’m just trying to be realistic here. Seen too many of these types of systems have one problem or another – especially with that 540 line so in question. Historically, convection transports warm air aloft down to the surface. If this happened, it would create or further enhance an warm H7-8 layer. As the models show it now, I read it as snow, changing to sleet in convection, back to a period of snow flurries on the back edge as cold air aloft on the back side of the low sinks squeezing out remaining moisture.

    The problem arises when you consider the fact looking at simulated radar outputs that the most intense simulated echos would be 30 miles of Kansas City before the 540 line even hits I-35. This would mean that that warm H7-H8 layer would be present through all the heavy precipitation, and we would be stuck with flurries on the backside.

    • fire508

      But how “deep” is the layer and how warm it is will also be a BIG determining factor.

    • HeatMiser

      Flood, most models show it will be mostly snow in KC. Further south, more sleet. Is what your saying possible, sure anything is possible. But the prevailing wisdom is we will get mostly snow. Lets move on shall we?

  • OlatheMatt

    Weather team, asseemmmblleeeee

  • tushchaser1

    Your response is appreciated. I am of the opinion that with this storm and with most storms where the 540 line is so in play, we will need to wait and see. I am not going to change my opinion that we are going to get snow, and I am not going to freak out about one model run.

    Therefore, I am staying the course.

  • Kcchamps

    it is still 18degrees where I live in Independece, it is 5 or 6 degees colder right now than forecast. I don’t know if it means anything, just throwin it out there

    • jgbrazil

      Champs, I think this is important. Since early on Gary has said that cooler temps is going to be a key factor in the snow. It’s still only 20 degrees out in southern joco.

    • SnowComando

      Here,s what it means…..Southern Kansas.
      “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/plaza004.jpg?2/20/2013%2011:39:47%20AM”
      If link works this time.

      • SnowComando

        I-135 North of McPherson, Ks

        “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/cam213506420.jpg?2/20/2013%2011:47:39%20AM”

        Snow is reaching the ground!

    • heavysnow

      Not only is it colder, the ULL is further south than the models were showing yesterday

  • the fact is as Gary and the NWS has said this is an unusual storm and set up (NWS stil even says they are still uncertain about the EXACT track of the storm) so who knows what is going to happen. Just part of the fun and excitment. Im most happy my dentists office called and ‘offered’ to reschedule my icky dental procedure tomorrow.But I am hoping for some good thundersnow/sleet tomorrow!

  • weather

    All this snow will remind me of the 80’s!

  • kcpurpledog

    Wichita is reporting Heavy Snow and the traffic cameras there show very low visibility at times. They appear to have pretty good accumulations already down there. They were definitely not expecting that this early today.

    • SnowComando

      Wichita? Looks like this…..
      “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/plaza042.jpg?2/20/2013%2011:44:47%20AM”

      • jgbrazil

        Interesting pics, thanks for posting. I have to say though…still haven’t seen anything at my location?

        • SnowComando

          Location please?

          Hays, Ks. getting hammered right now!
          “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/cam307016020.jpg?2/20/2013%2011:58:26%20AM”

  • Henley

    This will be a 3″-6″ snow here in the metro….sorry

  • weather

    Everyone take a deep breath. Take a couple shots fo your favorite liquor and relax. It’s all on course. It has slowed sme again so wouldn’t expect here until 8am on Thursday.

    Everyone is so excited. Oh the madness that will ensue if for some strange reason *poof* raises it head lol.

  • HeatMiser

    OMG…he said the “P” word. GRRRRR

  • weather

    All I know is snow blower is ready! Firewood loaded up at both fireplaces check. Gloves hat and heavy coat ready check. Beer and liquor check! Bread eggs and milk check! Steaks for the grill ready chck! Have I forgottten anything?

  • SnowComando

    OK, I’ll take full blame for this up-coming snow event…3 weeks ago I buried my snow blade in the back yard! Guess I better start digging!

  • Kole Christian

    We need this storm

  • Sky Tracker is doing an awesome job with breaking news. Very interesting police chase

  • supersubby

    This is exactly why weather is so fascinating! So many possibilities that are all in play until it actually happens. I love to explore all that could happen and what influences that causes it. I am not a professional meteorologist but an avid weather follower. Other forecasters may have over used “dry slot” all day yesterday, but i just finally had time to sit down and study the set up for tomorrow. As I read the blog and seen the models, I agreed with Jacob about the vort max. We all are not pro’s here, or we would be writing the blog. Gary’s job today is a tough one. Winter weather is an extremely call to make.
    This is why they are only forecasts and not fortune tellers. A difference of 50 miles might as well be 5000 as just a small variance of system can mean so much. Everyone take care tomorrow as we all will be impacted some how.

    • kcpurpledog

      Yet so many people don’t seem to understand that small track changes and where certain characteristics form can be slightly off from a forecaster and make a huge difference. Remember, they are forecasting for an area, not just where you live. Given the traits of this storm, it looks likely that some people may get 12 inches and some 5, or maybe less, all in the viewing area.

  • mattmaisch

    The GEM (Canadian) Model continues to hammer us with snow. Notice the map I am posting shows the entire metro area with between 25-40 millimeters of snow. That breaks down to 2.5-4.0 centimeters, or 10-16 inches of snow. This model has been extremely bullish with this storm all along, and has never really budged.

    “http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=120&lang=en&map=na”

  • Kole Christian

    I’d like that 16 inches to verify!

  • Hockeynut69

    That was an entertaining lunch watching police chase on tv. 2 police chases in over a week!

  • whitelightning

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    1137 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

    …UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION…

    .DISCUSSION…

    Just a quick heads up that the models have continued their previous
    trends of the past 2 days of slowing down the arrival of the
    significant snow to after 12z Thursday. Will probably see very light
    snow after 09z Thursday over the western CWA but the heavy snow will
    be delayed. This will have a trickle down effect from sw to ne.
    Will also need to be concerned with thunder and its effects on
    snow/sleet rates and total snow amounts. Thunder=higher snow/sleet
    rates and accumulations.

  • SnowComando

    Russell KS under fire NOW!!!!!!!
    “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/cam307018420.jpg?2/20/2013%2012:23:19%20PM”

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, another KC news channel is now saying storm delayed. We will wake up to no snow in the morning, but it’s still coming. By noon it should be snowing heavily. He said those of us who are more intellectually challenged will look outside, think it missed us, and go to work. He said this is a really bad idea. Do you agree with this storm getting delayed thing?

  • heavysnow

    Its funny that the only model that really shows more Sleet and Freezing Rain for me in the St Louis suburbs is the NAM…but the NWS says I will get like 1.7 inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain….most of the other models show 2 to 4 inches of snow/sleet and snow band keeps getting closer…temps are colder than what was predicted though

  • Almost 5 inches in Hays already. Check out my website. I have a live cam!

  • heavysnow

    The local forecasters in the St Louis market are terrible

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Bone Brain, your live cam is pointed to the sky so you can’t see the snow on the ground. Completely and totally useless that way. Turn camera down some so we can see snow on ground instead of clouds in sky.

  • HeatMiser

    We haven’t heard an update from Gary in about five hours…I wonder where he is…

  • smiley10

    A co-worker just said forecasters have pushed back the arrival of the storm to around 7 a.m. Is this true? If so, will this affect our snow totals? I was counting on just working from home tomorrow, but if the roads aren’t bad yet in the morning, I’ll expected to go in, then have to try to slip out early before the traffic snarls up.

  • so if the storm is delayed and there is nothing on the ground 6 am..will the schools cancel or not? Im a sub for the local school district..bet if they dont cancel i will have my pickin’s of jobs lol.

    • Grambo624

      Colleges are already cancelling classes and I am sure school districts would probably do the same. Last time we were under a Winter Storm Warning, they began cancelling in the afternoon/evening 12 hours before the storm arrived. I am a teacher and I can’t imagine districts being dumb enough to send the kids to school tomorrow.

  • hk2111

    Gary is probably worked out and is resting since he will probably be up all night :)

  • Radar says yes but my eyes say no.

  • hk2111

    working out not worked

  • networkguy

    NWS just upped their snow predictions to 5-9in KC Metro.

  • The cam is on the roof of my house.

    • HeatMiser

      LoL…well are you can see are the clouds, not the ground or even stuff in the background to see the falling snow against.

  • mgsports

    Theirs a former Met Ladie from KC in St. Louis. All the Mets here will all be up all night. Heavy Sleet means more Ice some Schools will wait intill last minute to annouce.

  • erock89

    When do the next NAM and GFS models come out? Im hoping we dont get any sleet so our snow totals are upped! What do you guys think will happen based on the past 3 days of models?

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      It will snow. Some areas will get mix of snow and sleet. It will snow all day Thursday into Friday early morning. That’s what the models have said past three days.

    • fire508

      Nam about an hour. GFS 2

    • mwnavyvet

      i don’t think those models will be as useful will they? isn’t there a shorter-term model we should be paying attention to now?

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        The RAP is the short term 18 hr model currently only goes until around 6 am local time. But it shows heavy snowfall at that time central KS with KC as its bullseye. We will see

  • Hockeynut69

    5 closings already for tomorrow

  • Time Laspe from today. You can view it via Windows Media Player.

    http://www.hayskansasweather.com/videolastday.wmv

  • kettle corn

    Dear Storm, You cant get here quick enough for me. Please hurry! Love, Kettle Corn

  • whitelightning

    This is for south KCKs…

    Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. East wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
    Thursday Snow before 9am, then snow and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. High near 27. Breezy, with a east wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
    Thursday Night Snow likely, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 17. East wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    They are Slowly Raising totals here.

  • weather

    Is there a snow storm coming? I’ve heard somethig about it I think.

    • mwnavyvet

      lol! i posted something similar earlier in the day. it seems like we could possibly get an inch or so out of this :)

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    So high temp so far is 19 degrees in Platte City. Staying alot colder than forecast so far. This is good

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=018″

    Have ever seen anything so pretty? Such vibrant colors and deep texture. A modern day work of art. Wait have I been drinking already? Never too early #snowparty

  • erock89

    Does anyone have a good link to check the RAP models?

    • anshad

      RAP Only Goes Out 18 Hours… So It wont do much good for the metro just yet.

      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/”– This is the link to ALL models.

      Enjoy :)

  • mwnavyvet

    i dare to say that bourbon almost always tastes better when snow is on the ground!

  • HeatMiser

    It’s after 2:00 pm on the day before a major snowstorm hits and no Gary for like 7 hours. An update would be real nice.

  • f00dl3

    24 degrees in Lenexa/Overland Park

  • weatherkcmo

    Still only 21 degrees out. Seven degrees cooler than the expected temperature.

  • McCabe58

    Is all this verga going to help a lot to saturate the atmosphere and raise the dew points?

  • ChiefsFan

    I image Gary will give update soon, I image he will up totals again for metro kc

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=035″

    latest NAM!

  • thomasmidwest

    Latest nam blast us with snow 10 to 14 inches

  • Kcchamps

    temp in Independence is still 20*

  • McCabe58

    TWC said this is a storm that you only see once every 15 years for our area

  • MikeL

    Very light snow here in SW Topeka…atmosphere is moistening…

  • thomasmidwest

    This run keeps the sleet south of I 70 “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=PTYPE&hour=025″

  • TEXAS-MIKE

    wow hope that verifies

  • thomasmidwest

    This run keeps the sleet south of I 70 “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=PTYPE&hour=025″

  • SnowComando

    Slush cover roads just South of this location in Emporia.

    “http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/RWIS/plaza127.jpg?2/20/2013%202:14:12%20PM”

  • weatherkcmo

    Local on the 8s now says 8-12 tomorrow and 1-3 tomorrow night.

  • allietag

    I have heard about Thunder Snow with Lightning bringing 2 inches of snow in an hour… any truth to this?

  • weatherkcmo

    Yes that is very possible.

  • NCSUguy77

    What are the chances of hail or graupel with the thundersnow tomorrow?

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Spreaders are out in Platte City.

  • rtpep

    About one inch of snow on the ground here in Salina, Kansas. Only flurries currenlty.

  • Almost 6 in Hays. Alot more to come!

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, what is your latest snowfall forecast for Lawrence?

  • melafinatu

    Starting to put sand down on roads in Platte city

  • f00dl3

    24 still. If we stay 24-28 the entire event snow ratios could be up to 14:1 – 1.1″ of moisture would turn into 10-16″ of snow north of I-70, 5-9″ of snow/sleet mix south of I-70.

  • McCabe58

    Hate is going to get pounded! 18-24″

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_36HR.gif”

    latest NAM snow map

  • weather

    I hope everyone has their wills in order with snowmagedan upon us. What will we do? Oh my! Oh my!

  • McCabe58

    One for the record books folks!

  • weather

    Let’s not get crazy just yet.

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      It’s always time to get crazy…life is too short to not get crazy. Live it up man!! Snowmegatronic may just gobble us up…

  • AllDay

    hayswx, stop with the fake reports. Hays KS only has a dusting of snow. No where near 6 inches.

  • McCabe58

    That nam has backed off some on the totals in Jackson and cass county.. more sleet here?..

    • Kcchamps

      I would shift the 10-12 and 12-14″ 25to30miles further south because think it should be colder than the models are saying

    • WxCursed

      The NWS discussion this morning mentioned the NAM as having a more northern track compared to the GFS/European/Canadian/SREF models. If the NAM track is right, southern parts of the KC metro may have snow totals reduced by sleet (think 5-7″). If the track is further south, as the other models indicate, then more of the metro would see higher accumulations (7-10″).

  • Kcchamps

    MAKE A NEW BLOG Gary, the site keeps crashing

  • numbers

    We definitely have more than an inch in Salina.

  • Rick

    Darn this is an exciting potential record breaking snow event and I can not wait. Now with that said I hope everyone drives safely so that no one is injured during the event. Be extra careful if you are out in this system.

    I am now waxing my sled blades and washing my snow suit.

  • McCabe58

    I agree champs, messing up for me too.. Gary just make a new blog, doesn’t even have to have info lol just put NEW BLOG

  • weather

    I’m surprised they have not told people to stay off of the roads once the event starts. I mean this is going to be crippling. Total mayhem will ensue. What should we do fearless leader?

  • wxtime

    ^^what did you expect?

  • This thread is almost 300 comments.. is that the “official” record ???

  • RickMckc

    Fun blog today – everyone is so well-behaved.

    – Rick (the Queen of Civility)

  • nerd in lansing

    Lansing high school has been cancelled for thursday…official lion alert text

  • mban112

    I have been glued to this blog all day. I’ve wasted my life.

  • skylark

    Fort Leavenworth closed Thursday except for emergency essential personnel.

  • weather

    All schools will be cancelled by morning. Kids start stretching and get those shovels ready! The city is depending on you to dig us out!

  • McCabe58

    Btw allday, that isn’t a fake report out of hays.. TWC was on the phone with a man earlier and they already have several inches out there

  • fire508

    I believe the GFS (as it has been all year) is officially out of the race.

  • Kole Christian

    I do believe the unofficial record is 356 set back in ’11 just before the February blizzard.

  • fire508

    RAP will be more accurate now.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Dew point rose 9 degrees as disturbance passes over. Good stuff. This is all priming the pump for tomorrow.

    Speaking of priming the pump. A nice cold glass of beverage sounds good

  • hushpook

    Lest we forget….we are in a drought. I hope it snows a foot. We need the moisture. But schools cancelling before the first flake falls? Weather is never a sure thing.

  • newenglander

    Gary just said latest model data has low end solution of 5 to 6 inches

  • bethhatessnow

    Is the time table that Gary posted earlier still accurate for the beginning of the storm? I could swear I saw a salt truck laying down salt in Liberty. Is the storm going to be here soon?

    • kcjc777

      My understanding is that the storm has slowed a bit and the snow will start a bit later.

      As far as the salt trucks go, they’re probably pre-treating. Barry Road, at least near Zona Rosa, and some other roads around here, got pre-treated yesterday afternoon.

  • l lohr

    IS ANYONE CONCERNED about the system churning its way into the dry air (in the Chihuahuan Desert) down in TX panhandle & Mexico? Any reason for concern? There’s a chunk of air down there with around 10F dew points. Sorry if it’s a dumb question. I want this snow so bad that I feel like a nervous parent during the birth of a child!

  • JPeculiar

    Can’t wait for a “New Data” update !!!! This storm sure has generated a lot of interest..me included

  • snowlover

    Would everyone please put WHERE you live when you post any info during this storm..esp when you post snow totals? It really helps to know what’s going on WHERE in the area during a big storm. I wish our counties would just automatically be listed next to our names. I know a lot of you already know where others live because you’re regulars on here, but some like me visit here mainly when there are big storms coming, so we don’t know the bloggers well. I LOVE this blog when the weather get interesting like this during storms of any kind! Thanks to all!

  • kcpurpledog

    I would say the only thing that concerns me now is that I have seen these storms like this get so “wrapped up” that they can push so much energy way out in front and a lot of snow goes north of us and when the main system comes thru we get snow but we miss out on all the forcing dynamics of the event typical of the beginning of the storm.

    • l lohr

      good observation. there’s a bit of a lull in the upper jet too–out west of washington state–which you’d think could loosen the storm up a bit just before it gets here.

  • zimbokc

    300 comments for the second time this week!

  • stjoeattorney

    23 dewpint 7

  • Theo

    New NWS video weather briefing. 7 minutes long. Boring. Snowfall totals at 3 minute mark. Nothing new otherwise.

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/briefing/”

  • Skylar

    From TOP: “SNOWFALL RATES OF
    1-2 INCHES PER HOUR BEGINNING AROUND 12 UTC SEEM LIKELY. MAIN CHANGE
    THIS CYCLE IS THE IMPRESSIVE UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT ALONG AND JUST
    NORTH OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM LAYER JUST NORTH OF THE DRY SLOT.
    THIS AREA IS MOSTLY EAST OF I-35…BUT RESULTING HEAVY SNOWBAND
    COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS I-70. GIVEN AMOUNT OF
    INSTABILITY…THUNDERSNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE. IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES OF
    3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOTED IN MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CENTERED
    AROUND 15-18 UTC THURSDAY. “

  • mgsports

    Storm Con for KC area 8 out of 10. Could be in top 10 on List for KC area.

  • McCabe58

    24 here in pleasant hill, few point of 11

  • Kole Christian

    The previous record before yesterday’s blog was 314 set on January 30th, 2011. The current record which was set yesterday is 344.

  • Kole Christian

    I live in Platte county NW of Parkville just outside the I-435 loop.

  • sedsinkc

    fwiw, Tom Skilling out of Chicago recently tweeted his RPM model snowfall forecast totals which included 11.8 inches for Kansas City.

  • Major Dryslot

    I have re-grouped and I am coming to park right over KC!.

  • Kole Christian

    new blog