Winter Storm Warning…Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening bloggers,

The second massive snowstorm in 5 days is 24 hours away from starting.  All models are in agreement that the main upper low will take a perfect track for our viewing area to get nailed.

There are differences between this storm and the last one.

1. The temperature at the onset of the snow will be in the 30s, instead of 20°.  If the snow starts light to moderate, then roads may initially be wet.

2.  It will be a wet snow and cling to everything.  So, we have to watch power lines closely as the winds will be 20-40 mph.

So, now here are the details of timing and how much will fall.

WINTER STORM WARNING…The drought stricken winter wheat areas are in a Blizzard Warning.  That is good news.

Blog3

WINTER STORM TIMING

 

SNOWSTORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION

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Will have another update 9-10 PM.

Have a great night!

Jeff Penner

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  1. I was hoping kc would be in the 15-20 range. Is it more likely that we will get 8 inches or 15 inches?

  2. Someone explain this to me, at the store, milk and bread were low but they had a highly unusual shelf EMPTY of MARSHMALLOWS?? Why would that be?

    • C’mon…put some thought behind that. When it is cold, what do you drink? Hot chocolate. What do you put in said drink? Marshmallows.

      • LOL I have been thru a top of trips to the grocery store and NEVER seen the amount gone today. it struck me as very unusual. and funny

  3. Snowbird – I bet people are roasting marshmallows in the fireplace with their kids to keep them entertained while snowed in.

  4. Pretty much in the 15-20″!!! Can’t wait! Gary are you still thinking we could see thunder snow again?

    • Remember, between now and Monday night that 15-20 can easily shift a little. We could end up with it in KC.

  5. Roads will initially be wet but anything that falls on existing snowpack will stick due to the enhancement of the snowpack. Evaporative cooling will further cool the column. Yes temperatures may initally be warm but I guess that doesn’t matter. The only thing I’m really worried about now is the southward trend and less QPF trend. If it keeps trending the way it has trended the last 24 hours, by the 00z runs we could be looking at 0.8″ in the metro with a max of 1.25″ south of KC – oddly enough, that would still be ~8-12″ – so KSHB has this one covered pretty well.

  6. If it shifts a county north, we’re in the 15-20″ range. If it shifts a county south, KC is still in the 8-15″ range. :)

    BTW, the server errors are starting to get pretty bad again.

  7. So, it looks like Gary’s latest blog on 2020 says only 6-10 inches in KC, with close to a foot south. But on here it says 8-12. Then, Accuweather has 12-24 and Weather Channel has 12-18 for us. Which is more current of Gary’s for KC? Is it 6-10 or 8-12? And are the TWC and Accuweather wrong? Gary just an hour ago had the 12-24 line really really close to KC, now has he moved it south? I’m so confused, potentially disappointed with lowering the predictions? Someone help the Heat Miser sort thru this.

  8. Damn, they have lowered it. NWS now says 7-10 inches between I70 and I35, before it was 10-13 inches. That freakin’ sucks.

    • I’m not losing confidence yet. We still have two factors in play: 1) Tomorrow’s models may increase snow totals, and 2) Models aren’t 100% accurate! Nature will do what she wishes… no reason to doubt Lawrence will get less than 12″. Just have to wait and see.

    • The worst thing is when they lower their totals, but don’t acknowledge that they’ve done so. You know, don’t skip a beat and act like it was always that way. That is very weasley. If you f*** up and get your estimates wrong, man up and acknowledge that (that’s directed at you NWS). Now, while 7-10 inches is still alot…it’s a different animal than a foot plus. Mabye it will change again for the better…we’ll see.

      • Where do you see that at. I just checked local forecast, still the same, and their forecast diss and nothing has changed.

  9. Petition for retraining of IT and New media personnel. No way we should be having this many problems on the blog.

    Just frustrating.

  10. I’m not losing confidence yet. We still have two factors in play: 1) Tomorrow’s models may increase snow totals, and 2) Models aren’t 100% accurate! Nature will do what she wishes… no reason to doubt Lawrence will get less than 12″. Just have to wait and see.

  11. This storm is a different animal from Thursday’s storm. Thursday was a full warm air advection event. Those are easier to predict from a coverage standpoint because they cover a larger area in advance of the low pressure. Tomorrow’s/Tuesday’s storm is mostly a deformation zone or “back side” snow event and those are notoriously difficult to pin down their exact track. It is the biggest reason so many Kansas City snow predictions go bust. Most snow events in KC are back side snow events and so if the storm shifts its track only 50 or 100 miles you can go from 6-10 inches of snow or more to, in some instances, none. If this storm shifts south by 50 miles, KC will only get 3-6 inches at most. If it shifts 50 miles north, KC is in the heart of the heaviest snow band. It’s always best not to get your hopes up too high for snow here. Be prepared for the worst, but keep expectations low if you’re a snow lover until it becomes a nowcasting situation and you’re sure you will get slammed.

    • Exactly! I am hearing some grumblings in other outlets that there is a chance it slips south and lowers out totals some. 50-100 miles could make a difference.

  12. What is the timing of this storm? My team here at the NCC gets off at 11PM each night. We’re trying to determin with management if were looking at doubles tomorrow because of the midshift night being able to come in at 11PM. NCC is located in OPKS.

    • The heaviest snow will be Monday night and Tuesday morning, though there could be some lighter precipitation starting during the day tomorrow.

    • Well it’s KC and things usually go wrong here, so some will assume this will too.

      THE 12Z NAM MODEL WAS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
      AND DID NOT LIFT THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST UNTIL IT REACHED THE MS
      RIVER ACROSS EASTERN AR…THEN HAD IT TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO
      CENTRAL IL. IF THE MODELS START TO TREND TOWARDS THE 12Z NAM
      SOLUTION THEN THE HEAVIER SNOW FALL WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
      AND SOUTH OF I-35. HOWEVER…THE RUN TO RUN
      CONSISTENCY WITH THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN VERY POOR WITH THE TRACK OF
      THE UPPER LOW. THIS IS WHY I`M FAVORING THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS
      SOLUTIONS.

  13. Nothing has changed. Stop trolling. Post link to show the lowered snowfall totals… Jeff just posted this blog a little over an hour ago.

  14. Looking at radar (in New Mexico and Texas panhandle) and satellite it looks as though the ULL may be slightly north of the 18z NAm forecast position for 7 PM. Also looked north compared to 23z RAP.

    Will be interesting to see how 00z models look. Could the storm be tracking slightly further north?

    Just saying…your mileage may vary…

  15. It’s still a ways away…it could still go north or south..just have to watch and see what happens.

  16. Big Jeff,

    Man to man, I respect you, but you’re way off on this forecast.

    As I said on the other post, I was just on the Ham Radio with some likeminded folks, real meat-eaters, not the type of croc-wearing sissy men you see hanging out at coffee shops. I’m not allow to tell you too much about these people; let me just say that some of them are “company men.” Anyway, unlike you many of you here intentionally kept in the dark, my associates have access to the supercomputer at Exeter, Devon which predicted Hurricane Sandy before all the jimmy-rigged, half-ass “computers” many forecasters use even knew what was coming. At this point in time, I’m not allowed to give you too much information. I promised to keep my mouth shut. But let me just say this is going to be a doozy. My current D21 fractal readings show 24 – 42 inches of snow over the greater KC area, which may be why FEMA was just notified about possible impending problems. No reason to get too alarmed, but I’d make sure you’re stocked up on essentials, as none of us knows for certain what Mother Nature will bring. As for me, this might be one of my last comments here for a while, as I’m heading to my secret-location bunker, which only has Ham radio access. But don’t be worried, it’s stockpiled with food, ammo, 50 packs of smokes, (choice) magazines, distilled rain/snow water and gain alcohol, and infra-red surveillance equipment. Good luck!

  17. I just read the part about not updating the blog until tomorrow. -.- So one blog isn’t working and we have to wait until tomorrow for an update on the other. -.- Crap all around.

  18. The blog is a joke. IT guys Lezak will have your heads. I don’t understand how this is allowed to happen at a major news organization. What’s wrong did the rabbit ears break?

    • Calm down man, the blog service issues are a pain, but you are over reacting about a blog. Stop being one of the biggest negative nancys on it.

    • I actually have to agree with this. This is a major newscast’s website…. It should not be having these problems.

  19. I wonder how Scripps feels about Gary directing people to his weather 2020 blog instead of 41 action news homepage? Oh I forgot none can see the 41 weather blog LOL.

  20. i am on the kshb northwest 8 inch line most of the time that would be great. the lowis frther north lookin at radar i expct a coldr monday and a couple inchws of snow. look at radar in NW KS an SW NE.

    • maps have been showing heavier amounts in that area all day long. That didn’t change what was forecasted for our area.

  21. Remember when we all thought the electronic world was going to come crashing down at Y2K? The blogs must not be able to go past the astronomical hits they’ve been getting!

  22. I can’t get on the weather 2020 site either, guess nobody has money to install proper hardware/softeare

  23. I see that nobody has posted about the new NAM (probably because of the server issues). Basically that instant weather maps page showed 10-14″, but raw qpf output would indicate something closer to 10-18″ with isolated places up to 2 feet just outside of the metro if it were to be all snow like it indicates. KC itself gets 1.5″ of moisture, so 14-16″ on this run, slightly higher as you head south.

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif”

  24. Shows slightly more moisture than the last run with a slight shift north and a slight shift east. All those slightl differences show us getting slightly more snow on this run. :) 10-15″ with 12-14″ in KC on this run.

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=00&image=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif”

    • Jeff was screaming about the snow apocalypse and ran off the set.

      But in all reality… 11 to 15 in the metro area and 15 to 20 in the South. Lesser amounts in the north and toward the Ozarks.

  25. Have not been able to log in for hours, so have no clue what is going on, I am more of a lurker than poster here, but enjoy the different insights on what might happen, what is the latest prediction?

  26. He also hinted/mentioned that if it moves north the 15-20 would also move north. NWS has also upped my totals in the last hour in the Hourly Weather forecast.

  27. The forecasts among the locals is pretty consistent. 11-16 in the south metro, 8-12 up north. KSHB is slightly more conservative, but not by much.

  28. I’m Mister White Christmas
    I’m Mister Snow
    I’m Mister Icicle
    I’m Mister Ten Below
    Friends call me Snow Miser
    What ever I touch
    Turns to snow in my clutch
    I’m too much!

    [Chorus:]
    He’s Mister White Christmas
    He’s Mister Snow

    [Snow Miser:]
    That’s right!

    [Chorus:]
    He’s Mister Icicle
    He’s Mister Ten Below

    [Snow Miser:]
    Friends call me Snow Miser,
    What ever I touch

  29. At least it appears we will get one day of school in before this thing hits. I do love the snow, but the amount forecasted along with the fact it will be a heavy and wet snow, I find bothersome. I hope everyone stays safe during this next round of snow and there are no roof collapses.

    In any event, my students are studying weather right now, and we’ve been visiting the Data Streme website to look at the daily weather summaries as well as Gary’s blog. I guess I will have to take them to weather2020.com, however, so we can get local insights as to what is going to happen.
    Thanks, Gary, for providing us with such accurate forecasts. It is an exciting time to be studying the weather, and I know we can always count on you and the LRC to come through!

    • It appears as though the blog is loading properly now…..yea! Now let’s all watch this storm approach our area…..bring it on!

  30. Why does everyone rush out and get milk and bread? Is there some French toast emergency that goes on when it snows?

    • They must like sandwiches and toast and cereal with milk and don’t want to run out when the roads blocked w/snow. Oh yeah, they like french toast too.

  31. I think if I remember right the new NAM comes out at 250am and the new GFS comes out around 330-4am.

      • latest GFS suggests 12-15″ for much of the metro with 8-12″ north of that and higher amouns further south

        here is the latest NAM snow map

        “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

        and here is the lates 10to1 ratio NAM snow map

        “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

        “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

        latest GFS

  32. KCChamps is the one that always links the models lol. I am not exactly sure, but I could give u a good idea maybe. He’ll be up waiting for the new models. Him and I are about the only ones up all night watching the blog lol! I dont choose to be up either, I just work nights at Truman Medical Center. Only for another week or so though because I get to go to days next week! :)

  33. Ah I work swing shift till 11PM, so I’m usually up through the night. Not sure why I need to change my logo but w/e.

  34. ^ I’m always here with you and champs anytime there is a storm coming lol.. Just waiting for champs to come through with another beast at around 2/230! In Gary’s 15-20″ range unless they moved it at the 10pm news.

  35. They were talking about the possibility of thunder snow again with this storm. Does anyone know if they’re still thinking that? I bet you’re still awake Gary, can you give a quick update? :)

  36. I have Jury Duty at 800am… lmao, I gotta get up at 630 so I guess Ill just look at the models in the morning

  37. McCabe, I think they are still talking thundersnow with snowfall rates of 2″+ a hour for several hours Monday night. I think the difference with this one is going to be the wind. I would NOT be surprised if they issue a Blizzard Warning and State of Emergency if things pan out the way they are talking. If u look at weather.com they have the south end of KC receiving 18-24″. I find this hard to believe, but honestly I find it ALL hard to believe I mean we are coming off the heels of a major snowstorm!

  38. I’m gonna be out in it no matter what lol, I’d love to be able to see the sky light up at night with the snow falling hard!

  39. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036″

  40. Liberty looking like 11″ as of now…All its gonna take is a couple miles to make these totals go up or down though…watch it carefully

  41. seems like cass county is going to be hit the worst, especially just to the south east of KC there seems to be an area that could get 18-20″ of snow.

  42. Anyone have any bright ideas on how to measure the new snow on top of the old snow? I’m open for suggestions! :)

    • There’s a crust on top of the old snow caused by the melting. Your measuring stick will go easily through the new snow and will meet resistance when it hits the crust.

  43. Wow. Check out this radar image, unbelievable!! I am in weather heaven right now if this all pans out. :) I love these types of events.

  44. I’m in cass county!! Pleasant hill!! Been seeing that cass is going to get hit pretty hard in the previous model runs as well. I hope this does pan out, love the white stuff! TWC just said it is very likely that we see thunder snow tomorrow night with snowfall rates 2″+ an hour possibly

  45. haha no bright ideas, maybe make an open spot for the new snow or something. Or put some sort of tarp on the old snow before new one falls…And really liberty might even get more, its hard to tell exact amounts, but general rule for name is further to south of city has more chances of snow like OP, Belton, Harrisonville, Leessummmit, etc. There could easily be 12 or 14 inches even in Liberty though…Exact path will be harder to tell until we get closer to the event. Will be interesting to see what Gary has to say.

  46. Geez, people. We’re taking down the NWS’s page now too. Just tried to check the forecast for Olathe and was met, for the first time ever, with a ‘this page cannot be found’ page.

    • Must just be my bookmark. Weather.gov worked and was able to get to the 66061 forecast. Weird.

  47. Just me or does the new GFS show a southern trend…”http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039″…Ive also heard the GFS isnt that accurate though when the storms this close, so IDK.