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Winter Storm Warning Tonight-Tuesday

Good morning bloggers,

The blog continues to have major traffic issues with so many people coming into the site. We are still working on this problem and I will do everything I can possibly do to get this fixed.  Thank you for your patience.

The National Weather Service has us in a Winter Storm Warning that will kick in tonight.  A major winter storm is developing and it will affect parts of our viewing area in a big way. This storm still has a few tricks up it’s sleeve and we are still sorting out the details.  We are expecting wide-spread 4″ to 12″ totals, but we are closer to the northern edge of this storm.

  • This storm is going to start a bit later and it will likely be dry all day
  • The first bands of precipitation, that may initially be rain or rain/snow mixed will be moving in between 6 PM and 10 PM tonight from the south

Our winter forecast:

  • Our winter forecast for snowfall:  14 inches
  • Snowfall so far this winter:  14 inches
  • If this storm misses us I would be exactly right for the winter
  • If this storm hits us, thenI won’t be exactly right for the snowfall forecast

This is a powerful and very unusual storm system.

I will go over the details in an updated blog entry by 8:15 AM.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony is on 41 Action News now with live updates.

Gary

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135 comments to Winter Storm Warning Tonight-Tuesday

  • icedoggkc

    So possible of northland just getting 4″ now?

  • mamaof3girls

    Hoping I see the 12+ this time. Our girls have LOVED every minute of the snow. Even though I was commuting for work I enjoyed it also. Great job with the last storm and good luck with this one!!
    Monica
    Pleasanton, KS

  • scottinamsterdam

    I find it intriguing that the “futurescan” radar does not match the snowfall prediction. During futurescan, KC is in the heavy pink area a lot more than where I live (an hour south), yet I am supposed to get a lot more snow?

  • Byron

    Hate to be a Debbie downer but it sure seems like the radar shows this dorm setting up significantly further south than last time. So much so that the core of heavy precip will bypass greater KC completely.

    The precip shield should be large and I’m sure will get a fair amount of snow but nothing like the rates we experienced last Thursday morning. Combined with the apparently high possibility this doesn’t even start as a 100% snow event and I’m thinking the reduction to a 4″ low end means that’s the safer end to bet on right now than the 12″ side.

    Please somebody tell me I am totally wrong :(

  • WeatherFreak87

    Its taking an even more southerly route than expected

  • rkcal

    Since this is what happened in the last storm, wholly expected. Will not be a big deal for KC this time.

  • spaceotter

    It’s still looking like a big deal. Don’t let your guard down.

    448 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
    AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY…

    A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM
    THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY.

    * TIMING…SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
    EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
    IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
    TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 6 TO 10 INCHES
    ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WARNING AREA… ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL AREAS
    OF AROUND 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

    * IMPACTS…STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH…COMBINED WITH
    MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL…WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT
    CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
    SNOWPACKED ROADS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

  • scottinamsterdam

    One thing odd with this storm is with all the snowcover on the ground, would expect fog to be breaking out ahead of the moist air, but maybe the NE winds are keeping that away.

  • yewtrees

    The temperature this morning remains warmer than forecasted. It is currently 32 degree in the downtown area.

  • weatherkcmo

    So we’re going from a 11-15″ prediction to a 4-12″ prediction. This smells like poof.

  • WeatherFreak87

    You never want to be in the bullseye 24-36 hours out. It almost always shifts one way or the other.

  • Twistersis

    Well good morning, Blog. You must have recovered from your “bug”! We missed you yesterday – hundreds of us. With this storm being pushed to later I recall many similar situations where it was diminished. Reading that the track has gone further to the south, I guess we’ll see. At least we’ll have several week’s supply of shovels, bread, milk and eggs.

  • tushchaser1

    The entire snow scenario has a classic “poof” appearance. The low is drifting further south, snowfall amounts for the KC Metro are being diminished from 16-20 inches to 6-10 inches and now to 4-10 inches. Further, the initial timing of the “storm” has slowed considerably, as it was supposed to arrive on Sunday into Monday, then Monday morning into Monday afternoon, and now Monday night into Tuesday.

    This is no doubt a tough forecast, however, in all appearances, don’t be surprised if the forecast changes over the course of the day and if we wake up tomorrow with little to no snow, while areas to the south are getting the storm originally scheduled for us.

    Further, be prepared for people to state: “It looks like the low is drifting further north.” The possibility of the low moving north is low.

    I love snow, but my confidence of this storm is lacking…as the “storm has some tricks up its sleeve.”

  • WeatherFreak87

    And to think someone in here last night posted his “model”was showing 24-42″for the metro. LOL!!

  • rkcal

    Exactly. Almost everyone was ignoring the warm temps yesterday, and this storm was initially pegged to be a southern storm. This never had the “feel” of a storm meant for KC

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_36HR.gif”

    the latest NAM has 14-18″ for the metro, what am I Missing Gary??

  • scottinamsterdam

    They say this will start 5 or 6 today..but looking at radar, looks like it could start raining (an hour south of KC) by 2

  • PILOT MISER

    I think the storm is more in the 8-13 inch range. Those saying little to no snow really are not gripping the extent if this system. Yes it tracks south but NOT that far south. The point of the left hook north is important as to the total accumulation. The delay until evening when temps are lower is beneficial for more snow. The rain at the onset will eat into te massive forecast totals. But still it is going to be a good storm for this area.

  • Polardog

    So I guess this is going to be another over hyped storm. I have lived in KC long enough to know that if they forecast 12″ expect 1.2″.

  • Twistersis

    And I guess, for me at least, we’ll have beneficial moisture. That’s the bottom line for our drought-stricken area.

  • smiley10

    If all we wake up to tomorrow morning is 4 inches, there are going to be a lot of people irritated with local weather forecasters.

  • Jenn

    POOF! French toast party at Gary’s??

  • weatherkcmo

    Really covering their bases here. 4-12″? Oh man.

  • Craig

    Look, this is ging to be a big deal and it definitely is NOT Cool to come on here and post disinformation when so many regular people will be visiting today.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    533 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

    A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
    SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A
    WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND
    SOUTH OF LINE FROM ST. JOSEPH TO BETHANY MISSOURI…AND HIGHER
    AMOUNTS…POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE FROM
    THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA TO MACON MISSOURI AND AREAS TO THE
    WEST SOUTHWEST. THE GREATEST RATE OF SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
    THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

    THE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
    WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING
    SNOW…FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITY DURING THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF
    FALLING SNOW AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

  • Polardog

    I love snow, but I am glad this one is going poof. I have to get out and take care of my father-inlaw. I don’t want to have to shovel two drives.

  • lvksguy

    Forecasts are all over the place on this. The band is so narrow a slight change in direction makes a major difference. Interesting to watch unfold – glad I’m not trying to forecast it. Good luck Gary!

  • rkcal

    I agree people have to be aware. But the overall trends are downgrading this storm for KC metro. All the signs were there; people were just hyped up by the last storm. There’s no way around it. Sure, be alert, but tamper expectations.

  • weatherkcmo

    Now the blog is having more problems.

  • HeatMiser

    North of KC only 4 inches, but KC and Lawrence still expecting 8-12 inches…no change there. Big storm still coming dudes.

  • HeatMiser

    Everyone’s still saying about a foot of snow for KC with near blizzard to blizzard like conditions, so everyone don’t get your panties in a wad. That is a major deal for KC and very unusual. Everything will get shut down.

    • Twistersis

      I’ve read/heard different opinions; many talking about the storm’s impact diminishing because of a southern track. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see what Mother Nature will give us!

  • u10girls

    Honestly if the meteorologists are wrong everyone will be relieved. This storm can continue to go further south. I am ready for spring and the heat. Get rid of this stuff. Or keep the temperatures over 32 so it is all rain and it will melt the snow we already have. ***POOF POOF POOF*****

  • TSC

    Not everyone will be relieved…some people love this stuff.

  • HeatMiser

    Forecasters: ‘Crippling’ storm bearing down

    This “historic” storm will be bad for KC. Everyone urged to stay off roads beginning tonight.

  • HeatMiser

    Northland has always been on the edge of this thing guys, catch up. NE KS and NW Missouri to get slammed with blizzard tonight…get preparted.

  • Perky

    “If the storm misses us…”???? How random is that?

  • snowlover71

    I am so confused. I will be very disappointed and pissed if this does not materialize. If they have this wrong then weather people need to not GUESS and wait until they know. I don’t know what to believe. Other than Gary saying 4-12 inches everyone else is saying we are getting a lot! What is it and when will we know for sure, once it happens

  • rkcal

    Hedging the bet. Sure, it will be “crippling” for some area, probably southern Missouri or Oklahoma. Remember how the last storm was going to “slam” St. Joseph? Well, it’s somebody else’s turn.

  • f00dl3

    4-12″ is the biggest cover your astrisk forecast ever. Give or take 4 inches, Gary is basically saying the metro could get no snow to about a foot and a half.

    • kcjc777

      It’s better than “An inch to a lot more”

    • WeatherNerd

      But isn’t that what the latest data is supporting? The north side of the city is on the edge of 4 or less and the south side a foot or more. How is there another way to forecast for the city?

  • scottinamsterdam

    Hard to trust the forcast when it looks on radar like rain should be here between 12 and 2…yet they say 6.

    Last week, we had 8 but was supposed to get 2 to 5. Doesn’t bother me they are wrong..just bothers me that in watching RADAR, you could see we were getting pounded south of KC – yet there was no mention…they can’t look at what’s right in front of them and make a commitment without having to confirm it with their computer projections.

  • weather

    This should not cme as a shock. The models were all trending to a more southernly track. Will we get snow yes. Will it be historic NO.

  • Troll Miser

    Northland people – stop crying on the blog. You received all of the minimal amounts of rain we received this summer so I don’t want to hear it. Just let me enjoy my 10″+ in Olathe. Thank you.

    • lvksguy

      This northlander isn’t crying. I’d go outside and blow in a southward direction if I thought it would help.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    You guys need to just chill. Gary is awaiting new data just wait until gary updates. Your doing a fantastic job Gary!

  • weatherkcmo

    All the mets covering their butts now. Im telling you, this wreaks of POOF. It doesn’t really effect me but there are people out there that plan their week around these forecasts.

  • Dwight

    Gary, sometimes your descriptions infuriate me. You say a widespread 4-12 then you say we are on the “northern” edge of the storm. What do you mean by “we”? Are you talking about your studio? KCI? or what? Don’t you realize that your viewing area stretches for at least a hundred miles? I’m in Cass county. What “we” get will most likely be quite different than what you get on the Plaza or at KCI.
    It would be better if you continued to only issue forecasts for the region broken down as you have in your previous snow total maps (with the south getting more) than to make broad statements that “WE” are on the northern edge of the storm. Also, your forecast today seems totally different than the maps you posted yesterday yet you did that with NO explanation. Is the storm tracking further south? Will rain eat into the totals? Is it because of a quickened storm? And, you were so sure yesterday about totals. How can you be so sure today? Last week’s storm shifted the day of the storm pushing southern totals above 12 inches when they were forecast the day before as 2-6. Where’s the “We” in that?

    • scottinamsterdam

      I totally agree with you Dwight. The guy they have on in the morning on tv infuriates me. Sort of like he can’t look at the radar and see rain is on the way within 4 hrs, yet he still says late tonight!

  • Troll Miser

    Wow. The 12z NAM is showing some serious snowfall for south side of KC and its only through the 30h so far

    • Twistersis

      Hey TMiser, do we know what south side of KC means? How far south?

      • Troll Miser

        “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=034″

    • kcjc777

      There is a really steep drop off running right north of the city, so extreme that Southern Platte and Clay Counties (aka, the Northland) could get close to a foot while the northern most point of those same counties could get nothing.

  • scottinamsterdam

    Kind of odd…according to radar, rain is approaching from south – but at 6am our temperature was 33, but at 8am we have dropped to 31.

  • u10girls

    Right on lvksguy. I am down here in very south KC and I will also go outside and blow it further south. Get it out of here. Bring on the heat!!!!

  • whitelightning

    This is going to be a BIG deal! Travel will be almost impossible tomorrow, Peoples lives will be at risk. What else are you people looking for? There has to be more important things in your life than wishing for the worse possible storm and being angry at mets if it don’t pan out. Not Gary or anyone else has the magic to control storm track or precip amounts. Just my perspective.

  • weatherjoy

    This is a “cutoff low weatherman’s woe”. This means the storm is prone to shift without much warning and does not follow a easily forecast track. Plus the gradient of totals is sharp. So this could result in an area receiving a forecast of 12 inches and then receiving a dusting. Also the KC metro area is huge so 4 to 12 inches could be entirely accurate. The uncertainty is due to the storm. Not because Gary sucks. He has been tentative this entire lead up because of this. And that is to his credit!!

    Now lets be patient. This could shift further south or easily shift north and even at the last minute..

  • sojoxowx

    You guys crack me up… did you see the last NAM it has a foot over the whole city.. and 8 to 10 north of kci . possibly more .. i have no idea why Gary and kshb keep teasing and being so vague.. im a loyal fan but this “im still writing” or “ill finish this at 815″ when it don’t get done till 1, is getting pretty old pretty fast ..

  • kcjc777

    NAM looks to be about done, lots of snow this run, especially Metro and Southward. Check out the sharp cutoff in totals just north of the City though. Parkville looks to be in the colors for over a foot while northern Platte County is in the 1-3in range.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042″

  • networkguy

    What about liberty? How much for us?

  • jrann

    Weather channel is still predicting 12-18 for southern part of metro with a high of 38 today.

  • scott4KU

    Whoa, 12z NAM blew up. As much as 2ft just south of Metro.

  • f00dl3

    And if that thing wobbles 15 miles further north – this city is gonna be completely shut down Tuesday. Depending on how the plows keep up with the storm, it may well be shut down with a foot of snow.

  • kstatewildcats44

    NWS in Topeka is at it again… After reducing Topeka’s projected totals during the day yesterday from 10-15 inches all the way down to 3-7, they have now upped totals to 4-8 and then 5-9 plus an additional 1-3 Tuesday in subsequent updates. They are looking at something that is increasing their forecast totals for Topeka.

  • lvksguy

    @ whitelightning I couldn’t agree more. Sure 4-5 inches is good, let the kids play and enjoy the beauty. But nothing good comes from 20″ of snow, people get stuck on the road and at home, emergency services can’t respond, businesses lose money, people have heart attacks shoveling. I Don’t get why anyone would want that. Seems borderline sadistic to me.

  • blue8091

    Wow, I can’t believe all of the negativity out here this morning. Darned if you say this and darned if you say that and you are all expecting perfection forecasting which is impossible, especially in terms of “what will fall at my house exactly” kinda questions. I am sure the server not only serves this blog, but the kshb website and quite possibly the new Weather 2020 site and we are giving it quite the work out. Let’s not forget this blog is a courtesy for weather lovers to learn more and it’s not a necessity and the team does for us quite well, which is why it’s crashing right now off and on. We have a LARGE viewing area in both KS and MO – a lot of ground to cover especially when snow amounts will vary. Chill out!

    • Troll Miser

      Couldn’t have said it any better. I don’t know where this entitlement to frequent updates comes from. As if Gary and his team have unlimited amounts of time while trying to track a storm like this, to update the blog frequently to satisfy a few demanding people. Thank you Gary and the 41 action weather team for all you do and the extra time you put into this blog.

  • DaleGribble

    Folks,

    I’ll tell you straight up: Most of these readings are way off because of the unusual nature of this storm. My reliable resources are telling me 24 – 42 inches of snow for the Greater KC area, and that’s what I’m going by.

    I was at the store this morning and I heard some girly man whining about the storm. I got in his face and said, “Be a man, for once. You want the ladies to respect you? A few years back when we had Christmas Eve blizzard, you think I was whining like a sissy? No, Sir! Shirt off and Ruger 10/22 in hand, I went outside and faced that storm head on.” He bowed his head in shame because he knew I was right. I even got the sense that his girlfriend wanted to leave him for me.

    I don’t know what you all have planned for this morning but it might be wise to pick off a few squirrels for extra meat. You can skin’em, put’em in burlap sack, bury them in the snow, and they’ll keep for weeks that way. I already cut one up for some squirrel pot pie, and will keep the others on hand for extra eatin.

    Bundle up, folks, and make sure you have all the essentials. Extra smokes are always good to have because, even if you don’t smoke, in an emergency situation they can be bartered.

    Your friend,

    Dale

  • someweatherdude

    Lurker here for awhile, and fairly new to the KC metro. Came from Chicago, where I got to participate in the 20-incher we got in February 2011 — the Snowpocalypse. The model forecasts leading up to that storm have been pretty similar to those leading up to this storm. Fairly consistent with the amounts, but wobbling on the exact placement. Even 6 hours out from the beginning of a storm, things can change, and even the NAM isn’t going to predict with 100% accuracy exactly where the bullseye will be. As of 7:30 am last Thursday everything was still saying heaviest amounts from KC north, and then Johnson County ended up getting just as much or more. That said, the current bullseye is over Johnson County, KS and Jackson County, MO — probably 75% of the KC Metro population? Here’s the 12z NAM snow map.

    http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif

  • smiley10

    Dale, how do you recommend we all cook our squirrels? Frying, roasting, baking?

  • Troll Miser

    Latest GFS not agreeing with the NAM with snowfall amounts being as high but shows a much wider area of the metro getting some decent accumulations. Interesting.

    • Sv7Fooster

      Seeing that, after these last two models I think there is going to be a VERY sharp contrast between the north and south sides of town in terms of total snowfall.

      • Troll Miser

        Very much agree with you here. I’m leaning towards the NAM’s prediction being the more likely of the two, but that’s slightly skewed by my hope for lots of snow in JOCO. The snowfall levels across northern OK and southern KS from the 6z to 12z GFS is interesting to look at

  • weather

    no update. folks this could be a bust. a little wobble south and we are missed. stay tuned as this will be a thriller

    • Craig

      This is most likely NOT a bust. Yes, a wobble will matter. It could also wobble north.
      Regardless, THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS are nearly identical. The NAM has the KC metro at 12-20″ and the GFS is 10-14″. More importantly, the tracks are almost the same, with the GFS a tad farther south. On the flip side, where the NAM cut off the snow at St Joe, the GFS takes 6″ all the way up to Nebraska City.

      There is no POOF. Please ignore people that come on this site to say that as the are simply trolling for attention. Anyone reading this must prepare for a major sonwstorm/blizzard.

      In regards to Gary and an update…Please keep in mind how extremely rare a 12″+ snowstorm is for KC, from a climatological perspective. Maybe one every 5-7 years. And we just had one last week! So, cuts the mets some slack for not sticking their heads out. I’d be cautious, too. That said, we are just 6 hours away from the start of the event and the models are in agreement.

  • TSC

    Does anyone have a link to the new GFS?

    • Troll Miser

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048″

      NAM:

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048″

  • fire508

    Everyone needs to calm down. For the last several days the 12z NAM has always shifted south then 18z shifted it north.

  • Perky

    Whitelightning & lvksguy–you do know that no matter how much some of us may WANT snow, that desire does not influence the track or intensity of the storm, right? It does no good to get angry or snarky with people who love snow. We don’t cause it to snow, nor can we keep it from snowing by wanting it less. Weather is not determined by majority rule.

  • whitelightning

    OK Perky. Thanks for your input. :)

  • Gary, Mix 93 just quoted you as saying on of the models is going south with only 3 inches at KCI, say it ain’t so!!!

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Gary has an update on the blog.

  • sticks435

    Weather Channel says 8 up north and 14 down south, talking about how narrow the gap is for where gets what amounts.

  • rkguitarist5

    The models also did this with the last storm. Showed the heaviest snow was going north of the metro. Where did it go? South

  • someweatherdude

    12z GFS snow map isn’t up yet, but this one is still showing 12-17 inches for all of the metro, with higher amounts being south of the river. Not really that much different than the NAM in the grand scale of things.

    http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=nc&model=gfs&run=12&fhr=19&field=acctype

    • someweatherdude

      Except much less of a sharp cutoff to the north — which might be expected from a lower-resolution model.

  • sticks435

    Latest Pleasant Hill Forecast. Basically splits KC in half through downtown, southwest to northeast. Anything above 6-10, below 10-12, with a small area of 12+ in Johnson County MO and I think Cass county?

  • sticks435

    Latest Pleasant Hill Forecast. Basically splits KC in half through downtown, southwest to northeast. Anything above 6-10, below 10-12, with a small area of 12+ in Johnson County MO and I think Cass county?

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • Sv7Fooster

    This is such a steep gradient…

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • Metro

    A simple google search yielded many answers for the “How to Fix the Error Establishing a Database Connection in WordPress”.

    “http://www.wpbeginner.com/wp-tutorials/how-to-fix-the-error-establishing-a-database-connection-in-wordpress/”

    Might be a good start.

  • R-Dub

    GFS not incredibly useful this close to the storm. If you look at the RAP it seems much less aggressive with the northern extent of the snow than the NAM is.

  • McCabe58

    R-Dub, would you mind posting the link?

  • McCabe58

    6 hour and no updates… Man this kinda sucks. Especially since the event is supposed to be starting in about 6 hours. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate everything is weather team does to provide us with this blog. I work nights and really just need an update to see if I should just call in today

  • McCabe58

    The weather team does**

  • mattmaisch

    Gary,

    Very concerned about the RAP keeping all moisture well south of the entire area. Nothing, and I mean nothing showing through 5:00 AM. Any input on this would be greatly appreciated. Thanks as always.

    Matt

  • l lohr

    This storm’s composition and axis sure changed since last night. I’m not enough of a wx guy to know why, but the axial tilt is much more traditional looking and less dynamic.

    The last storm had a large area of east to west flow(from the humongous anticyclonic rotation centered off of MA coast) which buffeted the E’ward progression and influenced it to move NE’ward.

    This storm doesn’t have such a strong influence ahead of it so it’s going to exit our area much more easterly…to our south.

    So all of the Mets here are in the let-u-down-easy mode now. They’re probably afraid of the backlash of the more irrational wx fans.

  • PILOT MISER

    Brett is staying the course on TV. High accumulations. Around midnight hours on. I still expect the 8-13 inches to verify based on storm track and moisture available.

  • l lohr

    why is the storm expected to turn northward?

  • PILOT MISER

    Lohr because the low is pushing up against a southerly flow out if lower Texas and LA out of the gulf which will push it northward across Arkansas and into Illinois and Indiana.

  • PILOT MISER

    Could it be? I actually got into the blog and posted without error messages. Say it ain’t so.

  • bob osoborne

    Here’s what cracks me up reading over the posts since this am. People insisted we’d get rain in the metro between 10 and 2 and slammed Gary over not seeing it, so ok where is it?

    Many were insisting the Thursday storm would go poof and hey, it did cripple the city.

    If you want to call in then just do it and don’t expect the weather team to put updates here over trying to figure out what’s happening with the storm and when it gets here.

    Lvksguy, thanks for saying what too many forget. Many of the snow lovers calling for 2 feet of snow are those that have the luxury of a snow day at school or can telecommute. EMS have to respond to every call. If you’re having a heart attack, and it happens alot in cold weather when shoveling, do you really want a 10 minute response time? Because after 4 minutes without oxygen or cardiac circulation you’re not coming back.

  • Hmm…can someone tell me why the shift north? Or is this not the right tool?

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=EAX

    • Craig

      Nope, you’re right. That is this morning’s NAM. And here’s this morning’s GFS:

      “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

  • Craig

    RAP shows just what Brett described at noon. Heavy snow by midnight.

    “http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=RAP&mdl=grads/rap&file=panel2&nplts=13&width=800&height=700″

  • Overbrook

    Light to moderate snow here for the past half hour or so. Started as flurries, slowly picking up in intensity. Not much sticking to the bare ground/pavement though. Visibility about a 1/4 mile or a little more.

  • KUweatherman

    I’ve had a ‘Whatever’ attitude towards the blog issues, but now its really starting to annoy me too. Seems to be the luck of the draw if it works or not… Usually have to hit reload 5-6 times before it will actually load.

  • jayhawkX

    Rain snow mix in Gardner, started as of 15 minutes ago.

  • Theo

    Snowing in Baldwin City too, as of 2:15pm.

  • madnick44

    snowing 147th & Pflumm

  • A cut-off Low and a database error is also a blog and weather enthusiast woe.

  • Craig

    2:30 CST and I’ve got my first flakes in West Lenexa.

  • MikeL

    Light snow now falling in SW Topeka…

  • Overbrook

    Almost quit for a few minutes, now it’s coming down in huge, wet flakes. Visibility 1/4 mile, bare ground and side streets becoming snow covered, main roads wet but snow free.

  • Craig

    Brand new NAM. 12″ NW side of KC. 18″ SE side of KC.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060″

  • Theo

    New blog is up folks.

  • stjoeattorney

    we will see about the new blog but this went poof for me

  • goldenroads

    Moderate/heavy snow in Gardner. Already have a dusting.

  • thundercolt

    Gary is thinking same as me shift the BULLSEYE north west to Shawnee KS and Win baby win !!!!

  • HillJenn1

    I just got home from work and I was just wondering where the new blog moved to?

    Thanks

  • smiley10

    ,where is the new blog some of you are referring to?

  • McCabe58

    It’s at “www.weather2020.com/blog”

  • McCabe58

    Is the blog really not working for anyone? Can we still expect some accumulations tonight?