Good evening bloggers,
The first snowflakes have already started falling and radar echoes are increasing steadily as I am writing this at 4 PM. Snow is likely tonight through Sunday morning and significant accumulations will occur in many areas. Predicting the exact amount of any precipitation is always one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting. If we had to predict the exact amount of rain every time we would not be very successful. We know it is going to snow tonight, but exactly how much will accumulate is quite difficult. Right now we are convinced that between .50″ to 1.25 inches liquid equivalent precipitation will fall by Sunday morning. The amount of snowfall accumulation will depend on the temperatures and on the strength and track of the storm system.
- Now – 10 PM: Bands of snow will move in from the southwest with accumulations mostly on grassy surfaces.
- 10 PM – 6 AM: Heavy snow at times with thunderstorms possible. Accumulation rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may develop early in the morning, possibly heavier if thunderstorms form in the bands.
- 6 AM-10 AM: Snow, heavy at times will begin to taper off. Total accumulations in the KC metro area of 5 to 10 inches are expected. Our first forecast of 5 to 12 inches from three days ago may end up being the best forecast for this storm. Roads will likely have 2-4 inches accumulate as temperatures drop to 28 degrees by morning causing slick and hazardous driving conditions.
- 10 AM-1 PM: Snow will taper off to flurries with blowing and drifting of some of the snow
The storm system will be intensifying as it moves across Oklahoma and into Missouri early Sunday. How fast it intensifies and how strong it becomes will help decide how much snow will fall. But, we are in it. This storm is targeting the same areas that had the most in the last storm, around Warrensburg to Sedalia. This first map shows the rising motion and 700 mb flow at 4 AM:
And, look at what happens by 7 AM as the storm strengthens:
The rising motion becomes very strong as it passes by us early in the morning. This is why we picked out the area southeast of Kansas City yesterday, and it is still looking like it tonight. Snowfall rates of 2 inches/hour will likely develop and last a few hours in the strengthening storm early tomorrow morning. Here is a look at simulated radar at 4 AM, which is quite impressive:
The storm is coming in bloggers. Let’s share this experience in a positive way. We will update the blog later this evening. Jeff Penner is on at 5 and 6 PM on 41 Action News. What a weather pattern we have been in for the past 31 days. Let us know what you are experiencing.