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Winter Storm Warning Tonight-Sunday morning

Good evening bloggers,

The first snowflakes have already started falling and radar echoes are increasing steadily as I am writing this at 4 PM.  Snow is likely tonight through Sunday morning and significant accumulations will occur in many areas.  Predicting the exact amount of any precipitation is always one of the most difficult aspects of weather forecasting.  If we had to predict the exact amount of rain every time we would not be very successful. We know it is going to snow tonight, but exactly how much will accumulate is quite difficult.  Right now we are convinced that between .50″ to 1.25 inches liquid equivalent precipitation will fall by Sunday morning.  The amount of snowfall accumulation will depend on the temperatures and on the strength and track of the storm system.

Weather Timeline:

  • Now – 10 PM:  Bands of snow will move in from the southwest with accumulations mostly on grassy surfaces.
  • 10 PM – 6 AM:  Heavy snow at times with thunderstorms possible.  Accumulation rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour may develop early in the morning, possibly heavier if thunderstorms form in the bands.
  • 6 AM-10 AM: Snow, heavy at times will begin to taper off.  Total accumulations  in the KC metro area of 5 to 10 inches are expected.  Our first forecast of 5 to 12 inches from three days ago may end up being the best forecast for this storm.  Roads will likely have 2-4 inches accumulate as temperatures drop to 28 degrees by morning causing slick and hazardous driving conditions.
  • 10 AM-1 PM: Snow will taper off to flurries with blowing and drifting of some of the snow

Weather Discussion:

The storm system will be intensifying as it moves across Oklahoma and into Missouri early Sunday.  How fast it intensifies and how strong it becomes will  help decide how much snow will fall. But, we are in it. This storm is targeting the same areas that had the most in the last storm, around Warrensburg to Sedalia.  This first map shows the rising motion and 700 mb flow at 4 AM:

2

And,  look at what happens by 7 AM as the storm strengthens:

4

The rising motion becomes very strong as it passes by us early in the morning. This is why we picked out the area southeast of Kansas City yesterday, and it is still looking like it tonight.  Snowfall rates of 2 inches/hour will likely develop and last a few hours in the strengthening storm early tomorrow morning.  Here  is a look at simulated radar at 4  AM, which is quite impressive:

5

The storm is coming in bloggers. Let’s share this experience in a positive way.  We will update the blog later this evening. Jeff Penner is on at 5 and 6 PM on 41 Action News.  What a weather pattern we have been in for the past 31 days. Let us know what you are experiencing.

Gary

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350 comments to Winter Storm Warning Tonight-Sunday morning

  • Kole Christian

    Light snow now at I-435 and HWY 45 just north of Parkville mixed in w/ snow pellets, sleet and rain.

  • Skylar

    Heavy snow with huge snowflakes in Lawrence! Pavement is starting to have a few patches of slush.

  • whitelightning

    Thanks

  • HeatMiser

    Sounds like we could still get a butt load of snow!

  • HeatMiser

    I guess I’d better be thinkin’ about gettin’ to the store.

  • Skylar

    K-10 towards KC starting to become snow conceded with visibility about 200 feet.

  • HeatMiser

    Skylar, which part of Lawrence are you in? I’m off of 15th street between Iowa and Kasold.

  • MotherNature

    It’s rwally coming down now in Lawrence–big fat flakes.

  • sedsinkc

    Predicting 5 inches here in KC North.

  • whitelightning

    35 and all snow now in south kcks

  • weatherkcmo

    So you still don’t know how strong the storm is or will be?

  • Skylar

    Sorry, snow covered. Compete coating on all surfaces now, the car thermometer says 33 degrees. I recommend staying off the highway.

  • HeatMiser

    Pretty fat flakes..snowing pretty heavy in Lawrence…grass is rapidly becoming covered – I’d say 70 percent white now.

  • Skylar

    Heat, I was near 6th street but we’re heading back to KC now. It’s getting bad rapidly out here.

  • k10k7

    In NW Olathe, temp has dropped 5 degrees to 32° in the last hour or so. The surprising thing is that my grass has almost disappeared and the roads are slushed up to covered at this point….

  • whitelightning

    So what happened to the rain first then snow forecast? NWS is still calling for rain first…

  • Skylar

    Really bad accident in the west bound lane with tons if traffic behind it. Seriously people, don’t go driving once it starts.

    • HeatMiser

      Really, because in Gary’s updated blog above he said mostly just sticking to the grass until 10:00 tonight?

    • snowsux

      If you can’t drive in these weather conditions, you probably shouldn’t have a driver’s license. I can’t wait to see how many cars have run off the road and been abandoned by the side of highways and in the middle of medians. It’s amazing to me how Kansas Citians freak out with snow…it’s like every time we get snow, it’s the first time it’s ever happened here! LOL

  • stl78

    41 n nothin just n of 435 n ne cookingham

  • NoBeachHere

    Light flurries and drizzle in Liberty

  • angvic00

    I’ve been following the blog for the past couple of days now and I thought the snow was not suppose to stick to the streets this early and start out as rain?
    I guess we’re in for some major accumulations .
    Temperatures dropped from 38 to 33 here in NW Olathe within the past hour and snowing steadily. The trees are coated now and so very pretty!

  • Jim

    Yep, it started as snow in Lee’s Summit. It’s coming down pretty good.

  • luvsno

    Gary !
    What happened to the rain !!??? The snow started 4 hrs earlier than you and Jeff have been saying since last night ! Does this mean the totals will be more (because the rain was supposed to cut into the totals)…or does this mean the storm has sped up…meaning it goes by faster so less snow. Will the comma head still be intense between midnight and sunrise?
    Here in N Olathe the ground is covered in about 30 min..and roads are also starting to get white.

    • The rain didn’t happen! Even at 40 degrees it started snowing. The warm layer of air was only close to the ground. It really is amazing, but fits this year’s pattern. A week or so ago it was snowing at 45 degrees outside.

  • HeatMiser

    Temp at Lawrence Airport is 34.

  • rkcal

    Snowing moderate/heavy in western Shawnee. Seems to be starting in earnest a bit early, and temps cooling earlier. This may be the big one! Hold on tight!

  • hippygoth

    Snows already sticking to the neighbourhood streets in Lenexa, and it’s coming down pretty hard.

    I’m looking out from my apartment, can’t see how well the main streets are holding out.

    H.

  • kiddosandpups

    I am in Shawnee, and I have heavy snow coming down here! The flakes are medium in size, but it is so thick, visibility us hampered. Like HeatMiser, I see about 70% snow coverage. I am still showing 41* outside, though. I am thinking that is wrong, but maybe not. If we have to have snow this close to April, we might as well make it a doozy!

    While I am ready for spring, I will admit, the snow is very pretty and fun for the kids and the husky!

  • It’s beginning to look alot like Christmas..in Olathe :)

  • sedsinkc

    Mix of snow and graupel beginning in KC North.

  • I’d say about 1/2″ already in Olathe!! “It’s the Most Wonderful kinda of Weather!…” So LET IT SNOW!!! LET IT SNOW!!!! YAH!!!!!!!

  • JJ

    36 & snowing lightly now in H’Ville.

  • Drought Miser

    Wow its pouring snow here in Merriam Ks!!!

  • donovan1972

    All snow independence I-70 & Noland Rd

  • salukiman

    Snowing like crazy in Cleveland, MO. Ground is already covered.

  • whitelightning

    heavy snow now in kck ground almost all covered but streets wet.

  • Cacti51

    Still snowing moderately in Olathe at 127th & Ridgeview. Everything is covered. Side streets are becoming slushy in spots.

  • whitelightning

    gonna have to up snow totals if this keeps up.

  • Drought Miser

    Started as Gropal(spell check) then all heavy snow!

    • col_mustard

      Ditto in Shawnee. (spell check says graupel – a German word that I didn’t know until 20 minutes ago…)

  • happyrock

    Small flakes starting in Gladstone.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Dry and 45 here.

  • Drought Miser

    Y is it snowing at 40 degrees? so awesome 1912 repeat!!!

  • R-Dub

    Melting almost as fast as accumulating on my sidewalk, so we have a slushee forming. Still 34 and roads wet with a few pockets of slush.

  • cjmitch

    Looks like it’s snowing packing peanuts now near dtown op.

  • luvsno

    Gary…again, do you think it will be less or more than expected since there was no rain preceding the snow.

    • animallover

      Dude you were kinda snippy with your comment to Gary earlier…just saying…be nice to everyone.

  • PILOT MISER

    Snow rain mix in Platte City now. It was all snow then about a 2 min pause with nothing and then it came down hard and strong as sleet and snow then mostly rain with a little snow mixed in…temps have dropped 4 degrees since that little pause

  • windyinmarshallmo

    strong winds picking up.

  • rkcal

    Looks like I’m gonna need a bigger shovel.

  • R-Dub

    IMO rain or snow, doesn’t matter that much. Temps are still as expected so we are losing a lot of potential accumulation. Not really piling up much even though the big fat flakes are falling.

  • stjoeattorney

    4;30 LITE SNOW 39 EAST WIND KILLING US UP HERE

  • juniorfan32

    Moderate to heavy snow in Baldwin City, KS. Ground covered, even streets. Pretty slick out there, so take it slow!

  • StormyWX

    Driving home and I steadily watched the temperature rise to 40 from 38 and then steadily drop down to 34 from 40.

  • JJ

    Snowing much harder now in H’Ville. It’s cold, brrrr!

  • HeatMiser

    It’s now snowing as hard as I’ve seen it so far with this storm in Lawrence – nice fat flakes!!!!

    • Drought Miser

      Here to Brother Keep us updated we have almost .75inch here on my railing! still snowing heavy! I-35 ShawneeMission Pkwy

  • snowdayz

    Light snow and 34 degrees in NW Independence. Bring it on….the last gasps of winter have begun!

  • HeatMiser

    Snowmagedon!!!! The Perfect Storm!!!! At least 8-10 inches in Lawrence…I can FFFeeeeellll it!!!! It will happen as the Heat Miser has spoken.

  • randomthoughts

    Been snowing for the past 1.5 hrs in Baldwin City, Currently snowing moderately with around 1.5 inches on the ground and covering roads. 33 degrees.

  • dudelove

    Temp at JoCo executive airport is now 34 and it’s snowing like crazy.

  • Skylar

    I’m kind of surprised that the highway was worse than the main roads, which are just wet other than a patch of slush here and there by JCCC.

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, is there any thunder snow yet? I swear I keep hearing distant rumbling in Lawrence, but not convinced what it is…mabye it’s large trucks.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    43 and light rain now.

  • Cacti51

    So there is already a 1/2″ of snow on my deck, accumulations much quicker that originally expected! I will totally take it.

  • Drought Miser

    Snowflakes as big as quarters! Snownami!

  • Jim

    It’s still only wet on the roads but beginning to accumulate on grass, cars and roofs.

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah temps still above freezing and it started earlier than forecasted.

  • JJ

    WOW, we are gonna get a lot of snow. It’s coming down so fast now…ground is getting covered. If it keeps this pace up we will get that 12.

  • RickMckc

    Huge mountain-snow type flakes at I-29&64th. Looks like the soccer match in Denver last night!

  • Current Lawrence statistics, well at my station anyway….
    32.9 Temp with a 31 Dewpoint. Winds are from the NE and are under 10 MPH.

    Our residential streets are starting to turn white

  • Kole Christian

    Nice fat flakes here just north of Parkville.

  • Drought Miser

    more temp reports please! 38 here in Merriam

  • HeatMiser

    Yup, in Central Lawrence very first signs of snow sticking to the roads…center line and edges of street starting to turn white.

  • snowdayz

    Size of flakes and snowfall rate is picking up!

  • col_mustard

    We started with graupel here in Shawnee. Quickly shifted to big, fluffy snowflakes. The graupel was just weird…

  • HeatMiser

    33 in Lawrence

  • HeatMiser

    Oh yeah…streets have a thin film of slush now…looks very slick.

  • kiwifruit

    snow is coming down in bursts here in Gladstone, MO. Got some nice fat flakes falling now, nothing accumulating yet though as it is about 39 and it hasn’t fallen hard enough for long enough…

  • donovan1972

    Still just light snow I-70 & Noland nothing sticking yet :(

  • jayhawkX

    32 in Gardner and it’s definitely sticking to the streets.

    What will be the change in snowfall totals since it’s apparently beginning as snow? Any?

  • PSinSH

    Accumulating on driveways& side streets in Spring Hill. Moderate to heavy snow, 34 degrees.

  • TheSnowMiser

    Snow has intensified to 1-2″ per hour now in SLS near 150 & Pryor. Massive dense snowflakes rapidly falling if in a hurry to get somewhere.

  • backwoods4ever

    NWS just expanded Winter Storm Warning south into Laclede County. 5 to 7 inches expecte with locally higher amounts possible with wind gusts to 35 mph. I am 30 mi, south of Camdenton on I-44. So it is shifting south a bit. We had 5.5″ on Thursday.

  • Drought Miser

    I think the GFS adjusted high snow totals to the East cause of heavy precip there but temps will warm with that heavy precip so east of town will be Rainy waiting for temps to drop as ours have already!

  • someweatherdude

    32.5 degrees in the O.P. near 151st and U.S. 69. Snow sticking to our stone patio.

    Good to see you at the gym today, Gary.

  • wozers heavy snow..fat fat fluffy flakes i would say heavy snow in SE Olathe now. Probably an inch on the ground..starting to stick on untreated pavement/streets

  • Cacti51

    my observations matches lillis heavy snow falling, fat flakes and just measured 1″

  • Drought Miser

    Gary,

    You nailed it great job!!!
    Have a Drink or two tonight and Relax your contract is safe with us for a few more years!! The Perfect Storm!!!!

  • PILOT MISER

    All snow in Platte City now. No accumulation yet

  • Hail No

    I’m declaring a French Toast emergency! Everyone get your bread, milk and toilet paper!!!

  • PILOT MISER

    We are going lose about 1-2 inches due to temperatures up here in the north. While it is a moderate snow falling no accumulations on any surfaces.

  • Kole Christian

    If it keeps snowing like this till ten tomorrow we’ll have over a foot. I’d expect that there will be a lull though.

  • ixj

    Starting to stick to the roads in Olathe around 151st-

  • JJ

    34 and ground completely covered.

  • snowsux

    They probably better cancel all of the school districts for next week…this is probably the worst storm we will ever see!

  • PaolaWeatherNewbie

    Snow has pretty much covered the grass, not enough to bury it completely yet, but it is getting harder to tell there is green/brown blades present in the yard. I’d say about three-quarters of an inch so far. Just looking at it though, I didn’t go and officially measure it yet.

    Pavement is still just wet, but my dirt road is snow covered and slick.

  • Kole Christian

    Slush on the streets now, 10+ inches???

  • TheSnowMiser

    Radar echoes are only showing pockets of heavy snow. It went from very heavy snow to barely snowing within minutes here in South LS. The heart of the storm is still a few hours away.

  • MikeL

    SW Topeka temp down to 32.7 and continues to slowly fall even when the snow lets up a bit. Snow has been sticking to everything except pavement. It has been all snow this afternoon – no rain or sleet.

  • weatherkcmo

    Temp now down to 34 in KC south.

  • LOL NWS has finally conceded that there is heavy snow and 32 in Olathe but their forecasat still says RAIN till after 1 am, when it changes to ALL snow? HAHA

  • Eswar

    Just measured about 1.5 inches on grass in southeast Olathe.

  • kiwifruit

    Starting to stick to the grass and roofs in Gladstone now. It’s coming down steadily.

  • Skylar

    Haha the NWS is definitely in denial about the forecast:

    “As we promised, here is your Saturday afternoon update on the winter storm that is already beginning to impact parts of the region. A rain, sleet, and snow mixture will continue to overspread the area through the evening hours. This wintry mixture will finally turn over to snow late tonight, with moderate to occasionally heavy snow taking over after 4am Sunday. This snow will continue through much of Sunday.”

    • kiwifruit

      And the Weather Channel is even worse. According their website, it is raining in my area… I believe the white stuff that I can see falling out my window is actually called snow!

  • snowsux

    I suppose I’ll head out for a nice drive in a couple of hours, and will definitely drive at or above the speed I normally drive at, and hit my breaks excessively. Whenever I do skid, I’ll be sure to swerve my steering wheel wildly.

  • Emaw

    34 in north Olathe light to moderate snow right now grass covered, a little slushy accumulation on the street in front of my house.

  • cjmitch

    Just drove to gas station, roads still fine @ 83rd & Sante Fe. (in Op)

  • yea someone knock on NWS’s service door! Wake up dudes!!

    • SnowComando

      NWS has this posted: “With temperatures so warm, even though we`re
      starting to see some light snow get down to the surface,
      accumulations will be minor or nothing at all, especially on roads.”

      Guys you have way to much tint on your windows!

  • R-Dub

    Trace accumulation now one all surfaces, maybe 0.5-1″ on lawn furniture and less on everything else.

  • cjmitch

    Yeah, I think it’s time to switch over to looking out window and checking radar every now and then.

  • Skylar

    Here’s the picture of the conditions when we are on K-10, after about an hour ago. It’s probably worse now.

    “http://i.imgur.com/8vGP4k7.png”

  • cjmitch

    I just measured 1″ on patio railing.

  • juniorfan32

    Seems like the totals got lowered but we already have a good inch and it is already snow covered on the roads. Hmmmm….

  • PILOT MISER

    Heavy snowfall. Temps 34. Not sticking to any surfaces yet. Platte City.

    If we get into te 20s tonight we are going to have a layer if ice underneath. It’s going I be bad tomorrow morning.

  • HeatMiser

    Heavy snow in Lawrence….all of road is white now.

  • Often looking out the window can enhance your forecast for the present.

  • kiwifruit

    I just went outside and made a snowball. The snow is so wet that I was literally able to squeeze water (a lot too!) out of the snowball.

  • bob osoborne

    What really irks me is all the people who read this to mean the roads were safe til close to 7pm and not only did the forecasted rain never materialize, the snow started earlier and is accumulating according to the reports above. How the ehck do you expect people to prepare when a major storm that has been forecasted for days, and has people watching for timelines, screws up the time so badly?

    Save your Gary was spot on. I can read and so can anyone else looking for a timelime for accumulation and it wasn’t 3pm.

    • rkcal

      Dude, the roads are fine right now. Breathe deeply; let the anger go.

      • Skylar

        The only areas without snow are high traffic roads. Everything else is already covered.

      • bob osoborne

        I’m entitiled to anger, frustration, whatever you want to call it. Certain open businesses were making calls as to whether to prepare for overnight employees sleeping at work based on whether roads would be safe for 12 hour shift workers. This isn’t just a mini marshmalloe fluffball storm, this is soemthing that’s going to impact the area. People have been asking about the rain/snow mix and the timelines for the last coupla days. Decisions are made on what we’re told and when it’s HOURS off, well then, there’s people’s safety at stake. So chill out yourself and let’s let the forecasters try to justify it, when people are coming home from weekend trips thinking they’re safe to get back and finding out the snow hit early.

    • Skylar

      You’re right. It’s also not just Gary.

      “Now – 10 PM: Bands of snow will move in from the southwest with accumulations mostly on grassy surfaces.”

      “Rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 28. North northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.”

      “Even though it’s snowing now [4pm], it will stick mostly to grassy surfaces for a couple of more hours before the pavement goes to slushy then snow-covered with temperatures near 32 degrees..”

    • HeatMiser

      I think “irks” is the wrong word. That implies the weather people were neglegent in their forecasting. Weather forecasting isn’t an exact science and they can’t always be right. If you want to be “irked”, I guess be irked at the atmosphere or Mother Nature or something. LoL

  • HeatMiser

    They were off no doubt. medium size road in front of my house completely snow covered now.

  • PILOT MISER

    Wow. That was so amazing to watch. We went from 34 to 32 degrees in a matter of minutes. Small flakes just making everything wet to huge intense downpour if fluffy flakes and instant accumulations in grassy surfaces and cars.

    Love this stuff. Weather is so amazing.

  • FlyenHigh

    South OP snow covered roads at least 1/2 inch deep.

  • FlyenHigh

    I agree weather is fascinating this is the complete opposite of the previous storm where snow was expected early but we got rain!! Love this!

  • blue8091

    It did get cold enough for all snow! This is good…no ice! Heavy to moderate snow here in S OP. Starting to stick on parts of driveway with close to an inch on deck railing.

  • Kole Christian

    Ground is white

  • Eswar

    2 inches of snow in past 2 hours on grassy surfaces in SE Olathe.

  • RickMckc

    Looks to me like there is a back edge to this first wave. Anyone else see it? My guess is some moderate/heavy snow for a couple hours, a break (with melting) and then resuming later this evening.

    • HeatMiser

      Yup, I see it.

    • RickMckc

      Interesting change to the forecast from NWS for my area (I-29 & 64th):

      “Snow before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight”

      • Skylar

        At least they’re finally looking outside. Whoever wrote in “Rain until 11pm…” while heavy snow was moving in needs to be fired. You can see the deformation band beginning to merge with the area of precip we’re in right now, but I agree. It does look like we may see a break for a little while.

      • HeatMiser

        I have to say, and I never rip the WNW, is actually moronic.

  • lsmowatcher

    Lees Summit roads just wet, barely anything on the grass. Minor traction issue starting from a stop sign on an incline, but everything else was fine.

  • dudelove

    South Olathe down to 32 and moderate snow still. Measured 1 to 1 1/2 in patio. Roads are very slushy and on side roads becoming covered by the snow.

  • terryhedglin

    Large flakes with no accumulation in Holden.

  • Kole Christian

    Some good slush on the roads now. Temps. Don’t seem to be a problem.

    Kcchamps,

    Temps didn’t have to be 5 degrees cooler, it’s snowing anyways!

  • cjmitch

    Anybody else having problems loading news?

  • cjmitch

    Lol, I meant nws

  • Hunter

    I hope we get really intense thunder snow tonight, so I can watch the night sky light up. By the way, it’s been snowing steadily in Blue Springs at I-70 and Woods Chapel Rd. for the past hour now. Absolutely no sticking whatsoever.

  • Lilydale

    Indi has also dropped in temp the last hour from 38 to 34 and snow is sticking on the deck and sidewalk. Grass is almost covered. HeatMiser, put some heat under those JayHawks tomorrow to run ole Roy out of town!

  • Kole Christian

    1 inch on the deck. 1/2 inch on the ground.

  • wsbgweather

    Still just raining here north of the ‘Burg. Temp is around 35. It’s been raining for almost an hour, occasional snowflakes mixed in but primarily rain.

  • Weatherwatcher

    Hey Gary, staff, and fellow bloggers,

    Here in Lee’s Summit, (just off of Todd-George Road) the roads are wet and in just a few places the snow is lightly covering the grassy areas. Sometimes, large flakes fall, other times, small flakes are falling. The snow varies from time to time.

  • whitelightning

    so does the NWS think this is going to change to rain before it goes to all snow?? that’s how i am reading it. anyone else think this is odd?

    • RickMckc

      If this thing is coming in waves it makes sense. The first wave is knocking the temp down to produce the slushy accumulations. Then, a break with a slight rise in temps (and rain/snow) before the main system and the drop in temps caused by being in the right spot wrt the center of the low.

      Just a guess.

  • kcw0lf

    Starting to stick in Raytown on a KC emergency snow route that has been pretreated. Snowing good. Wet pavement is turning to slush. Going to get slick. Be careful out there!

  • sounds odd to me whitelightning. With temps colder does that mean freezing rain??

    • whitelightning

      I wouldn’t think freezing rain, the ground isn’t cold enough to freeze on contact, i would think more in line with it changing to sleet. but who knows.

    • HeatMiser

      Catch up lillis, nobody has said a single word about us getting freezing rain. OH YEAH, you kept harping about freezing drizzle the other night. Hmmmmm…ice fetish?

      • RickMckc

        Personal foul on the Heat Miser for unnecessary snark. Snow accumulation reduction in your neighborhood of 3″.

  • MikeL

    Topeka NWS radar shows the precip is breaking up quite bit over NE KS. Not a lot going on in SC and SE KS at this time. Could be heading for a lull in the action.

  • kellyinkc

    well, the drive home from the Lake was non eventful. Hit rain at Collins, MO the snow in Clinton, huge flakes. Then we ran out of it until Lone Jack. Roads were just wet. In Raytown now temps are 32
    and heavy snow. ground is white.

  • Casebier

    I live between McLouth and Tonganoxie, temperature just dropped to 32.9.

  • R-Dub

    The change to rain would be due to loss of ice crystals in certain layers of the atmosphere I believe. I think I remember reading there was some chance of this during the storm.

  • cjmitch

    So if the deformation band is merging w/what is going thru now, where is our comma head at? Is this it?

  • donovan1972

    I-70 & Noland 1/2″ on grass, roof & cars. Streets and side walks mostly slush still good traction.

  • HeatMiser

    32 in Lawrence. Roads are slick for sure, but okay to travel if you take it slow.

  • rred95

    so does that imply the gfs is correct or the nam from eariler today?

  • kellyinkc

    if you are out driving in the snow please turn on your headlights! Unreal how many cars I saw with no lights on.

  • cjmitch

    Thanks Gary,I thought if the deformation band was the one to come thru next, this storm would be a helluva lot shorter.

  • weatherkcmo

    Yeah Jeff lowered the snowfall totals to 5-10 inches.

  • Emaw

    Still questions with round 2 . . .

  • rred95

    so if we get 4 inches from the comma head after midnight (im north of river)then they might not even need to send plow trucks out.

  • pjjayhawk

    K-10 from Lawrence was already kinda nasty; slush made driving hard. Saw a moderately bad wreck – closed WB traffic near Evening Star Rd for a while.

  • KUweatherman

    Posted this on the wrong blog:

    Yeaaaa, we’ve already got roughly two inches of snow here in northwest Olathe. If these are just ‘bands’ then I can’t wait to see what the heavy stuff drops later…

    • snowdayhope

      I am also northwest Olathe, just south of K-10, and it has been snowing pretty moderately for almost 3 hours. Everything in my neighborhood is covered including the street. I agree with the roughly 2 inches. Is it just me or has this part of Olathe been in a particularly hot spot for snow this year? We have been in the heavy side for accumulations all season!

  • HeatMiser

    First wave was just a taste! Heat Miser ready for real storm. Bring it on!!!!

  • RickMckc

    Gotta say it really is beautiful outside. Should make the grass nice and green when spring finally does arrive for real.

  • MikeL

    Just talked to someone who just drove to KCI from Topeka to pick up a relative and said the roads and especially bridges were bad and cars had slid off in spots. They may grab a motel and come back later tomorrow.

  • Skylar

    Huge 1-2″ snowflakes right snow, and it looks like a band of heavy snow is trying to sit and intensify right over I-35. If somebody gets stuck under something like this for a few hours, there will be a lot more than a few inches.

  • PILOT MISER

    Sidewalks and roads turning white now in Platte City. No spreaders have been out and the pads went from wet and clear to covered in about 2 minutes. Platte City

  • KUweatherman

    Olathe: “http://i.imgur.com/z8Nitbi.jpg”

  • Kcchamps

    I’m gonna say 10-12″ for most of us, less north of KC. with 12+” just south past Lee’s Summit and Harrisonville

  • mattmaisch

    Here in the southeast part of Blue Springs, it has been snowing for several hours, but we have absolutely nothing that shows even a hint of white. Everything is wet, but no snow sticking to anything.

  • weatherkcmo

    Wow! Huge flakes with about 1 1/2″-2″ already.

  • melafinatu

    snowing heavily in platte city

  • Kcchamps

    already about 1″ here in Independence

  • sedsinkc

    Was just out and about in the Northland and saw roads go from plain wet to white and slushy in about 30 minutes with the heavy snow. Almost an inch on grassy surfaces.

  • lsmowatcher

    Heavy snow in Lees Summit near Longview. Finally covering grass but neighborhood streets still just wet.

  • Well I would say so far the NWS has kinda bombed out..I dont trust what they would have to say now. Seems this storm has a mind of its own. Anything could happen…Two inches of beautiful white snow here in Olathe and it keeps coming. Been enjoying a plethora of colorful birds who found a corn cob left by a squrrel earlier,taking refuge and having a picnic of their own under my picnic table, so pretty in the snow.

  • oh btw..launches a snowbal at heat Miser :)

  • Jim

    In Lee’s Summit near 50 Hiway & Chipman Road it’s big flakes coming down. The road is just wet but grassy areas are largely covered as are cars and rooftops.

  • Suzq

    152 @ N.Oak it’s been sticking for quite a while now. My neighborhood street is covered and slushy. Still coming down very briskly and beautiful. Just stepped out and it’s quiet except for birds chirping. very strange.

  • FlyenHigh

    South OP never got any rain has been snowing for quite some time a good rate. Satellite has been out for over an hour, not happy about that for sure.

    • sedsinkc

      You might need to take a broom and sweep the snow off the dish. We’ve lost satellite during snowstorms before due to snow buildup on the dish.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Looks like a all rain event here 39 and all rain no snow for us this time.

  • HeatMiser

    It stopped snowing. I wonder how long until it starts in earnest again. I guess he said around 10:00 didn’t he?

  • R-Dub

    Trace to 2″ here near downtown OP. Snow is sloughing off some cars and roofs in big clumps. Still 33. Huge flakes.

  • HeatMiser

    inch to an inch and a half in Lawrence on the grass

  • HeatMiser

    Common’ Mother Nature…crank this baby up into a barn burner. Burn Baby Burn!!!!

  • OlatheMatt

    Does anyone else have a problem when you come to the weatherblog its always on mobile mode when you are on a laptop and have to click it back over?

  • windyinmarshallmo

    No way we are getting 6-12 here. Been saying it all day 3-5″.

  • HeatMiser

    For KC that is.

  • rkcal

    Seems to be mostly over now in Western Shawnee. We’ll see if any more develops.

  • erock89

    Can someone explain how much snow we are supposed to get? I don’t have time to look through all of the blog just want/need a quick answer. Is it 5-10 or 6-12 oh ya I live in prairie village.

  • 2soccerboyz

    Temp finally dropped to 32-33 in Blue Springs. Big, pretty flakes. Just starting to accumulate on deck and grass.

  • rkcal

    Say 6-8″ in KC metro area, but looks like it’s going way south.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Okay 8-11 here still don’t see it happening.

  • OlatheMatt

    I understand how difficult this must be to forecast. From what it looks like, I have looked at numerous weather outlets and everyone is different, and seems to change every few hours.

  • donovan1972

    I-70 and Noland still coming down about 1″ so far. Streets still fine. If you look to the north the trees look normal bit if you look to the south they look white :) looks cool

  • erock89

    Why did they lower totals? Is it weakening

    • rkcal

      Going further south and east

    • whitelightning

      This is 7pm update…A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
      OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
      IMPACT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9
      INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO
      KIRKSVILLE…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
      MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
      ROADWAY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES. USE EXTREME
      CAUTION WHEN DRIVING….. i don’t think its weakening.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    Sounds like spring time outside raining and the birds chirping. So weird!

  • craigmac

    rkcal – Just look at all the echos filling in. This is going to be quite a storm. If the temps drop, we are going to see 12″+ in many areas.

    • Kcchamps

      I agree Craig, the radar is looking impressive. It is starting to fill in to the west

    • rkcal

      But where is it going? And will the comma head be over the metro?

      • craigmac

        A good amount of snow is going to fall everywhere. It is ALL about temps. If your area stays around 32, you will get less snow. This is a huge storm. Look at the map!

  • sunshine1219

    1.5-2in on the deck in Wellsville, Ks

  • whitelightning

    Plus…If we get thunder snow the totals will increase in many areas that get it. I don’t think NWS is figuring in those totals.

  • RickMckc

    The main action has always been forecast for 12a-12pm. Even Gary’s map above shows the 4am radar as being the most impressive, plus the NWS weather story show 4am-12pm as being the heaviest.

    So what we have just experienced isn’t a “bust” -it’s a bonus.

  • craigmac

    About 1 mile North of exit 18 off of I-70, where it has been snowing for about 3 hours, but not much to show for it. Sidewalks and roads are still clear at this time. The 3″ – 6″ road forecast looks to be very accurate unless the temps start to drop. 34 degree right now.

  • TheSnowMiser

    It’s going to snow a lot in some areas, and not so much in other areas. There, that pretty much sums it up! =)>

  • cjmitch

    Wow, is everyone watching the radar with baited breath to see what the blob forming near ITC is going to do/which direction its heading?

    • Skylar

      It’s about to merge with everything and form a giant blob of heavy snow :)

    • Henley

      I haven’t looked at a radar image all winter and not planning on doing it tonight.

      • Henley,

        Very smart! Are you enjoying the storm without looking at radar. Seriously, I think that so many of us look at radar instead of looking outside?

        • PILOT MISER

          Been outside enjoying this snow. Not too cold or windy so it isn’t chilling to the bones. Just huge fluffy flakes. Have to just love weather and what it can produce.

          Btw, your timeline and what your and the team said would happen is happening to the exact detail for our area in Platte City…roads are wet and primarily clear, 2 inches of snow on grassy areas, we got some rain and snow mix until temps fell to around 34 then accumulation 2 hours later when it dropped to 32 degrees. So spot on from my viewpoint.

  • Skylar

    The old deformation band or whatever that was across southern Nebraska is merging with our area of snow, plus more snow is beginning to develop across the dry slot in central Kansas. +1 to those saying the 1-2″ we got right now is a bonus, because it really is. Off and on bursts of heavy snow will be what we get until this fills back in later tonight.

    Yesterday everybody was so convinced this would be rain, now it is going to be to our south? A little shift could lower our totals to only 5-7″, but a little bump back northwest would put KC right into the heaviest snow with over a foot across the metro. At this time frame, models do not have the ability to pick up on the tiny changes that would make those little shifts happen. Just watch the radar and see what happens. :)

    • Kcchamps

      good info Skylar! :)

    • Skylar,

      This has been right on schedule the entire time. The precipitation started as snow here due to the cold air that was trapped in from this past week, and this is the only twist to this storm thus far. This is fun, and I hope you are enjoying it.

      Gary

      • Skylar

        That’s what I was saying, because it changed over sooner, we got some a little bit extra snow. :) Wet snow is probably the most enjoyable IMO, so yes this is great for me.

  • Skylar

    I like how ICT posted an update on its AFD to announce “no major updates.”

  • RickMckc

    Check out the precip in the OK/TX panhandle.

    “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php”

    Notice the spin developing as the southern end of the precip is rapidly pushing east and north ahead of the northern end.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    2-3 inches in South Olathe now on the ground

  • Kcchamps

    the storm is looking more north on the satellite imgage! anyone else see this??

    “http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cp/flash-rgb.html”

  • donovan1972

    Stopped snowing in Independence !!!!! Damb it get your self to getter and thunder snow already !!!! 1″ and looks to be melting away :(

  • SilentK

    I just arrived home after driving from Tulsa to eastern KC, up I-49. switched from sleet to snow just south of Rich Hill, but roads were fine. Only saw one vehicle off the road, and traffic was moving steadily at the speed limit. The roads were quite wet, and there were signs of maybe some accumulation on the concrete shoulders, but otherwise it was s mooth sailing. Don’t drive like an idiot, give plenty of room between you and the vehicle in front of you, and at least as of right now, it’s good to go.

  • Bloggers,

    Who is here with me tonight? It is extremely rare when I get a day off (sort of) and a storm is coming in on a Saturday night. I am on the Plaza at the Residence Inn Marriott with Breezy and Stormy. I will post a picture soon of them at the J.C. Nichols fountain. I am coming in to get you updated from 7 to 9 AM during a two hour special show on 41 Action News. The peak of this storm is just a few hours away and Jeff Penner, myself, and our KSHB team will be bringing you the best weather coverage tomorrow morning. New bands of snow are increasing and heading our way. You can see the storm way out to the southwest just beginning to spin way to our southwest. We may not be in the bulls eye, but we are in it! So, who is here with me tonight? And,let’s watch Jeff Penner at 10 PM. He is doing a great job. I watched our competition earlier, and I just won’t say anything. We know, and knew that the main storm is later tonight. I will have an updated blog around 9:15 PM!

    • Crismac

      I will be Gary.I am to be at work at 7 am tomorrow,but with the truck I have to drive I probably won’t be able to make it.It is not worth it to try.

    • weatherman brad

      what are you doing at the Marriott motel Gary, are you staying the night there with your two dogs so you can bring them to work with you in early in the morning on Sunday..

      brad

    • Gary, I looked at one of your competitors web sites earlier, and I was surprised by just how awful it was. The adds were three times the size of the radar image, which if you want to be able to see the radar you have to enlarge it first. Almost no graphics, just clips of their on air personalities giving the forecast. Makes me appreciate just how must better your website and blog are (although I am mystified by the current weather panels describing conditions as light fog instead of snow). Your team was right on with the forecast, although most of us in the viewing area experienced the start of this storm as snow, not rain.

  • I see what you mean kcchamps!! Looks like in several hours we will be really socked in!

  • rkcal

    We’re here…..but will the storm be?

  • Cacti51

    Gary another great forecast I just need you to make the bullseye go north east for us..lol. Snowing big flakes again in Olathe, 127th & Ridgeview Measured 3″ on my deck

  • erock89

    When is the snow supposed to start back up

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    My Street is now snow covered, with 3 inches in South Olathe

  • kiwifruit

    I’m here. Stopped snowing for a while here in Gladstone but it starting to start back up again (according to the radar and by looking out my window) :)

  • Wthrlvr

    3 1/2 inches here in west Olathe.

  • MikeL

    In SW Topeka…temp at my house has now dropped to 32.0. 1.5 inches of snow on the deck and grass and now the side streets are turning white. Light to moderate snow with the big blob to our north. So it will be interesting to see what happens from here since we could be on the NW edge later…

  • The thunder can only be heard 2-3 miles from the lightning during heavy snow.

  • cjmitch

    Time to go make the no-bakes w/the kidlets. Snowstorm tradition..:-)

  • donovan1972

    Looking at the radar without all the crazy numbers you look at for days ahead of this one you would not have seen it come in till this morning!!!! Gary you and your team are amazing thank you for doing what you do and for being so good at it !!!! All hail the weather King !!!!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Gary, Is there suppose to be more snow developing around the metro.?

  • craigmac

    Wish the temps where I live would lower 1 degree. Over 4 hours of snowfall and only about 1/2 inch on the grass.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    I guess it won’t start snowing here until way later in the morning sometime. Still 39

  • Twistersis

    I’m around 103rd and Metcalf and the streets are just wet. Grassy areas are barely covered with snow.

  • whitelightning

    still snowing hard in kck hasn’t really stopped much. probably close to 3″ already.My guess is it has only just begun!!

  • klt1993

    Think we will get more than 5-10 inches possibly? I love snow!

  • blue8091

    Gary, glad you and the dogs are safe and nearby the station! We have slush in the streets now – really light flakes in S OP! I’ll be tuning into the 10pm news! Really good job on the forecast.

  • craigmac

    Actually went up 1 degree to 34 now.

    • rkcal

      Uncertainty creeps in. Will the temps cooperate?

      • craigmac

        Check my post. I have said that more than once today. It cold enough in Olathe. They have 3″ thus confirming it is ALL about temps. No uncertainty, just reality. Big difference between the two.

  • f00dl3

    3″ in Lenexa KS

  • RickMckc

    Looks to me like the 6″ accumulation line is running thru the middle of the city on the 0z NAM. More to the south, less to the north. That would NOT include what has fallen already today since the forecast period begins at 7pm.

  • blue8091

    or not :( I just lost satellite. Boo Hiss.

  • wsbgweather

    Think it’s finally started to snow a bit here. We had a couple hours of rain so far. All moisture is appreciated! My big hope is that our power stays on this time. Not really looking forward to another couple days with no heat for me & the kids (hubby is away on business again, he missed the last 2 storms as well!). Really REALLY hope we don’t lose power again!

  • Cacti51

    looks like about another 7-8 on the nam

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=032″

  • stjoeattorney

    WET WITH SNOW 32 DEGREES AT PM

  • Emaw

    Snowing pretty good again in north Olathe , but temp. Is definitely holding accumulation in check, probably 2″ on grass with just a coating on street and drive.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Snow is really starting to pick up

  • Drought Miser

    Snowing really bad I-35 southbound towards Olathe cant see highway!!

  • goodlifegardens

    Garden City/Creighton Been snowing since 4:00 and we still just have between 1/4 and 1/2 inch. It’s just like total slush. More water than snow.

  • what time will the temps drop below freezing?

  • Drought Miser

    I feel for ou eastern counties you had bullseye shift sorry maybe next fall who knows you could still get a dusting out there four inches here in Merriam already!!

  • Drought Miser

    32 here in merriam and dropping!!

  • weatherkcmo

    Heavy snow coming down now!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    3.25 inches of snow now.

  • Drought Miser

    wow main Low still centered over Dodge city this is it Folks Epic Storm taking shape throw out your Nams and Gfs we are in for it !!! Heat where art thought brother!!

  • whitelightning

    32.1 in south kck. colder air creeping in.

  • Kcchamps

    33degrees here in Independence with MODERATE SNOW streets covered

  • Drought Miser

    mew blog

  • weatherkcmo

    Wow very heavy snow now near south KC.

  • PSinSH

    Coming down at a good rate here in Spring Hill. 32 degrees.

  • Drought Miser

    new blog

  • sedsinkc

    Light snow and 33 in KC North. About 1.5 inches so far on the raised deck.

  • McCabe58

    Just saw and heard my first thundersnow in pleasant hill!!!!! AWESOME!

  • Dwight

    Lightening and thunder in Pleasant Hill, MO.
    Snow coming down at a pretty good rate.

  • TheSnowMiser

    Only .75″ here in South Lees Summit off Pryor & 150, but it is now pouring down snow as I blog this, followed by cats, dogs, & chickens!

  • sunshine1219

    Still snowing here, south of Gardner.