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Winter Storm Warning…UPDATE 9:30 AM

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

Well, here we go again as for the third time this season we are in a Winter Storm Warning.  Here is the timeline as of this moment.

  • NOW to 2 PM: Mostly dry with temperatures warming to near 40
  • 2PM to 7 PM: Rain and snow increasing changing to all snow.  Temperatures falling to 33 with wet roads.
  • 7 PM to & AM tonight/early Sunday: Snow, heavy at times with temperatures falling to the mid 20s.  Roads become slick and hazardous.  Total snowfall accumulation: 6″-12″ (heaviest south)  Roads will see 3″-6″ as not all snow will stick and there will be some settling.
  • 7 AM to Noon Sunday: Snow tapers to flurries with temperatures drifting to near 30.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast.  There is a slight southward shift.

2

Here is the snowfall forecast for the roads.

1

The new NAM just came in and we are not changing anything.  The worst of the storm will occur 12-10 AM late tonight and early Sunday, when the main storm moves by and temperatures drop to the 20s.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Penner

 

 

 

 

 

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173 comments to Winter Storm Warning…UPDATE 9:30 AM

  • krislauram

    Thank you for keeping us informed! Hopefully, this will be winter’s last hoorah!

  • dudelove

    Looks like Olathe is just north of the higher amounts now. Hopefully the high today will be lower like the last few days. Going to do deep knee bends to warm up for the shoveling!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/us/sipa_us_f39.gif”
    latest from NCEP WPC and SPC
    SREF derived models

    shows 12-15″ for the metro!

  • Twistersis

    And hopefully that 3-6″ on the road will respond to plowing and treatment, and this won’t be the nightmare so many are anticipating!

  • I follow blog often but rarely comment. How about we keep it to weather not insults. Can’t wait for Snow. My guess for WOF area is 8″ by 4pm Sunday.

  • yewtrees

    Issued by NWS this morning:

    “The heaviest snowfall will occur very
    late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upper level system
    tracks across central/southern Missouri. Snowfall totals are
    expected to be on the order 6 to 9 inches CWA wide with the
    exception of extreme northwest Missouri where totals will be
    slightly less in the 4 to 6 inches range.”

  • Skylar

    SREF plumes have increased over night. Range of 5-20″ with the tightest clustering between 8-17″ with a mean of 12″ now.

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=10&mLAT=38.96128080248055&mLON=-94.5212904296875&mTYP=roadmap”

    The ones with that best match current conditions produce more realistic numbers, of course.

    “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=MKC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=10&mLAT=38.96128080248055&mLON=-94.5212904296875&mTYP=roadmap”

  • farmingnolkes

    Will get less then half the amounts just soon it stay all rain

  • sagebrush

    Thanks for the timeline, Jeff! I’ll have my wife start her pre-shoveling stretching around 4 pm.

  • kellyinkc

    so will there be thunder snow this time? I did not read that in the update.

  • craigmac

    Skylar – You need to give a class on how to read the spc.noaa model you posted. It reminds me geometry.

  • PILOT MISER

    Sticking with 5-8 inches accumulation. About 3-4 inches will fall as either rain or melt on contact. It’s not going to get cold until around 10pm to stick to roads

  • lvksguy

    Oh come on! It’s almost April for Pete’s sake… Make it stop Gary, make it stop!!

  • Kcchamps

    I am going to say 10-12″ for most of the metro with a bullseye of more than 12″ a little further south near Lee’s Summit down through harrisonville

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Im going with the metro getting 8-12 inches for most of us. And Paola to Harrisonville to Marshall getting 11-14”

  • Skylar

    The biggest thing to watch right now is temperatures. At least where I’m at, it must have fallen back below freezing last night because the remaining snow has stopped melting. If our temperatures rise at the same rate they did yesterday, the high will only be 35-36, which is about the warmest it gets through northern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Also, the main wind direction right now across the region is from the NE, where temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s. 40 degrees seems a bit optimistic IMO.

    • PILOT MISER

      Yep. Temps have been my biggest concern and I believe the greatest factor. Last night hovered around 32-33 degrees all night in north of city. I live near KCI.

      It is going to be interesting to watch rise or fall of temps as storm waves initially arrive and the as it sets up overhead.

  • weatherkcmo

    It’s 35 right now.

  • weatherkcmo

    Fine, KCI is 34 now.

  • HeatMiser

    Behold The Perfect Storm!!!! Gaze upon it’s beauty and be amazed! Thank you Old Man Winter, we are not worthy!

  • HeatMiser

    35 in Lawrence.

  • HeatMiser

    Ah, about time for new data – Jeff said he will update us between 9-9:20

  • Skylar

    FWIW the new NAM is about the same as the 06z for us but goes crazy just to our east.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030″

    • HeatMiser

      Hmmm…that one only show 7-8 inches for us.

      • Skylar

        Which is slightly better than the 06z on those maps. And as champs said, models aren’t very helpful at this point. GFS was giving us 3-5″ Thursday morning through Friday afternoon, and that obviously didn’t happen. I was just posting it since things were a little quiet.

  • Kcchamps

    with the storm less than 12hours away, the GFS and NAM wont be much help at this point

  • R-Dub

    RAP showing it much heavier just south and east of kc, at least for the first wave. Then a heavier band approaching kc but outside the model’s short time frame. 13z RAP.

  • dlphg9

    NAM has been consistently showing KC with 7 or 8 inches of snow for the last several runs. I bet KC only gets 3-6 inches

  • dlphg9

    GFS has shown less than that for several model runs

  • HeatMiser

    Ah, so it has gone down. Well, models are wrong and change all the time I’ve noticed…so it seems that at this point the meteorologists should be able to take over and fly the prediction plane since we are so close to the storm now.

    • PILOT MISER

      Jeff has been on all morning and has laid out timeframe by timeframe hat the storm is going to do

      For those not watching or can’t. Here is a synopsis:
      Now until 2 pm. Dry temps climb to around 40
      2-7 pm first wave (warm wave) arrives with rain snow line near the metro but rain quickly turns to snow. Temps too warm for road accumulation. Around 33 degrees
      9-11 heavy snow with a short 2 hour break as deformation band then arrives around 1 am.
      1-6 am Sunday. Heavy snow ,temps 20s, windy. This is the coldest part of the storm.

      Forecast accumulations have stayed the same as above Map.

  • HeatMiser

    I hope Gary chimes in this morning with his thoughts. Hey Jeff, it’s after 9:20. Do you have that blog update coming?

  • dlphg9

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″ Heaviest

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″ 2nd heaviest

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032306&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    so 2 of the last 7 have shown 10-12 inches

    • Skylar

      Those are based on algorithms which can over or underestimate actual snowfall. Generally the models have been forecasting around 1″ of qpf, give or take or or two tenths. Low end you assume .8″ with about .25″ going to rain and melt. Even after that, rapidly increasing snow ratios would give us about 5-7″ still. High end would be over 1.25″ with only little” going to rain and melt, followed by increasing ratios, which would produce 12-15″ of snow. For KC, it’ll probably be somewhere in the middle. If you assume 1″ of qpf with about .1″ going to rain and melt, that would be about 9″. What really matters is how warm it is when precipitation starts. If we start out as or quickly change over to snow, the higher end will be much more likely.

  • Bloggers,

    The NAM continues to paint a very snowy picture. We will be going into an intensifying comma head after 10 PM tonight through 10 AM tomorrow morning. This is a very long time to be in the comma head/deformation zone. And, snowfall totals will likely reach a foot or more in areas near and just southeast of the KC metro area. Snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour will be possible and thunderstorms with snow are likely again.

    It’s already developing this morning to our southwest. Let’s see how high the temperatures get. Jeff will be finishing the blog soon.

    Gary

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    Is it possible that this storm affects Chicago enough to where the Royals game might be cancelled opening day?

  • whitelightning

    I Doubt it affects game since its a week from monday. April 1st i believe?

  • blue8091

    @sagebrush….hahaha :)

    Hopefully this is the last hoorah for the “s” word. The end of next week looks to be into the 50s. Checking out the LRC and April looks to be bringing us rain – maybe 1x a week 1st 3 weeks – let’s hope the temps stay warm.

  • sedsinkc

    I’m beginning my back stretching exercises now…it gets harder every year to shovel these big storms and a snow blower is not in my budget. It’s almost April I’m done with wanting snow. Time for warmth and greenery and outdoor exercise. Still hoping for a meteorological miracle that intensifies the storm farther to our east and we only get 2 to 4 inches. Sorry HM. ;)

    • sedsinkc

      What makes shoveling such a drag here is that I literally have to shovel the street in front of my house because the plowing is so unreliable here. I always have the nicest road to drive on in the neighborhood, although one other neighbor sometimes uses his snowblower to clear the street in front of his house. He was a snowbird in South Texas for the first two storms this winter but he’s back. I’m sure he wishes he wasn’t.

  • StormyWX

    How funny. I’m so used to these high snowfall amount storms now that I’m really not seeing 8″ as a big deal anymore. Talk to me again when you’re forecasting at least a foot. :P

  • dudelove

    Thank goodness I went against the wife’s judgement and bought snow shovels after the last storm (since you couldn’t find one at all then). Of course I didn’t imagine I would actually be using them so soon. But BRING IT ON!

  • Skylar

    The GFS really did terribly the morning of Thursday’s storm, but here is. Bubble of 6-14″ across the Ozarks, well to the south. Take it with a grain of salt.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013032312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036″

  • sedsinkc

    I’m coating the snow shovels with PAM to hopefully keep the wet snow from sticking.

  • McCabe58

    Thanks for the update Gary and pilot. I appreciate it. Looks like I might get in town just before the fun starts!! Stuck in Branson on the strip now though, so many people here!

    • The GFS takes the vort max and storm farther south, and is consistent with it’s last run. Let’s watch radar and satellite and see where this thing is heading. Either way it is going to snow significantly. If the GFS is right the KC metro area will get a few inches less than if the NAM is correct. Let’s not have modelitis and just watch and experience this storm as it comes together tonight. I am on my way to get a good 30 minutes of cardio and just get away for a while.

      Gary (using Jeff’s account)

  • Kole Christian

    Should be a great storm!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Reports of Sleet/Snow in Emporia.. And the Wichita Metro area is having some light to heavy snow..

  • stjoeattorney

    looking at radar and satelite movie i see radar echos in nebraska, waynw missouri and north central kansas, north of stjoe now, farther north than it should be. the ULL is out on colorado wyoming border and moving easet. will the ULL move from nwkansas to sekanasas cutting the state in half the is what the ULL is to do, but i have never seen it……..

  • Emaw

    This baby looks like she’s getting all stretched out ,3-6 here, more south.

  • HeatMiser

    No way, Gary said 6-12.

  • Emaw

    HeatMiser getting nervous? ;-)

  • Joseph Tay

    Probably be a bust

  • whitelightning

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    1136 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

    …SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
    SUNDAY…

    .A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
    THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
    SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH A BROAD SWATH OF 6 TO
    9 INCHES…WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
    HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
    STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    It’s 40 degrees here. Don’t see how we are going to get much snow from this storm.

    • heavysnow

      Dynamic Cooling

    • HeatMiser

      Well, Weather 101, but okay. Well noob, when the temps cool below freezing we get what is called snow. Snow is what you get when rain wall into air that is below freezing. It is white and sometimes fluffy. It may be 40 now, but see noob, sometimes, especially at night, the temperature can change…YES, that’s right…it will not stay constantly at 40 degrees. This will allow the temp to fall to…wait for it…a colder temperature. In fact, it will fall below freezing and THUS, you get snow.

  • Emaw

    Look at the giant dry slot in southwest Kansas.

  • cyclemom2013

    ADVICE PLEASE- I am in Ft. Worth- Heading home tomorrow. Will take I-35 through OK City and Wichita. What would be a good time to leave Sunday?

  • NoBeachHere

    Ok, I had to post this. Think about what we are about to get versus the day these spring breakers are about to enjoy. I used to live there and it was always funy to watch the northern schools on spring break come down casper white and get burnt with a little to much partying.

    “http://www.regencytowers.net/live-beachcam/”

    • Drought Miser

      I like those beach’s you can walk better on that sand then one’s in So cal sand to soft out there!

  • Drought Miser

    By tomorrow night we will need yardsticks to measure this storm!!

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    My cousin has a wedding at 4pm today… doesn’t sound good…

    • HeatMiser

      It’s not supposed to turn to snow until after 7:00 tonight. So as long as it’s over by then should be okay.

  • NoBeachHere

    Yeah Drought Miser. Sugar White soft sand. Great leg and calf workout jogging on those beaches.

  • Drought Miser

    SPC has all of metro in better then 50percent chance of snowfall rates over an inch an hour tonight around 11pm and a bullseye just SE of Raytown of 70percent chance!

  • Cacti51

    When was the last time a huge snow storm was predicted this late in the season? Just think many students (college mostly) are only 6 weeks from summer vacation and here we are talking about a ft. of snow, granted the weather will change considerably in 6 weeks but still, looking forward to winters grand finale!!

  • Drought Miser

    1912 we had 20+ today and tonight the LRC finally panned out knew we come to agreement at some point!

  • HeatMiser

    BEHOLD, The Perfect Storm!!!!! WOO HOO! Bring it on!

  • Drought Miser

    Last night in Colorado “http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10200216629169693″

    wait to the end to see what our roads may look like tonight cars in ditch!

  • Drought Miser

    Gary said new blog at 100pm snowfall totals said to increase but sadly a bit to the east :(

    hurry Storm get your act together and Dump on us we need the Moisture!!!!

    • HeatMiser

      So he didn’t say the whole storm was shifting east, sounds like hes saying he will up the totals east of us and leave ours the same.

    • Coach KC

      NWS Pleasant Hill also mentioned on their Facebook page that their bullseye has shifted south to SE Kansas and SW/South Central Missouri….so, who knows?!?!

  • HeatMiser

    Er, that video wasn’t very impressive.

  • PILOT MISER

    36 degrees right now. I think we will only see 38 as our high up here in north side of town.

  • HeatMiser

    It’s been 37 in Lawrence for quite a while now.

    Hmmm…Pilot Miser, Drought Miser…long lost relatives?

  • Drought Miser

    Looks like snow Echoes in Wichita !! Bring it on!! Were on the cold side of the strom all rain to the east YAHOOOOO

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    The precipitation around the Wichita area is increasing.. with some heavy snow or sleet or heavy rain

  • MikeL

    The undeniable trend in the models this morning is the heaviest snow potential is shifting to the south and east of the area. The models do this all the time where they shift the heaviest snow track right before the event. It’s almost not even worth looking at them until 24 hours out or less. So we might all get 4-6 inches or a bit more but it’s only because somewhere else is getting 12+.

    Footnotes: 1. I didn’t use the *P* word. 2. Yes, I’ll have some cheese to go with this wine. 3. Sure, call a whaaambulance. ;)

  • rred95

    Agree mikel .. so much for the perfect track of storm. not a good trend if you want snow.

  • craigmac

    The snow amounts hinges ALL on temps. If it gets colder faster, we all could get 6″+. This storm has a bunch of moisture and it is not small. The funny thing is that we are complaining about it only snowing 3″. Who remembers the last time there was a storm on Palm Sunday? I have seen snow, but not measurable precipitation that closes businesses and churches. This one is going to do that.

  • Skylar

    Stop worrying and stop looking at models people. :) The radar is all you need. If it goes south then it goes south, it’s not the end if the world if we’re not getting the bullseye for the third storm in a row. Besides, the GFS did a terrible job at this time range. Thursday morning it had us getting 3-5″, which wasn’t even close.

  • Still only 36 here in Olathe; seems really doubtful we will make it to our predicted high 40 today. Looking at radar echos sure seems like it could start snowing here sooner, as the atmosphere gets more saturated, and with the temperature not getting as high as predicted might really impact our snowfall totals….Maybe???

  • RickMckc

    It’s odd to see such a wide deviation between the GFS and NAM in terms of the storm center, etc, this close to the event. However, I checked the model diagnostics discussion and saw this interesting comment from the WPC (used to be HPC) about the 12z GFS … “THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE LOCAL PROBLEMS WITH CORPUS CHRISTI…TX AS IT IS ABOUT 6 DEGREES TO WARM AT 850-MB AND NOT NEARLY DRY ENOUGH IN THE 850-700-MB LAYER.”

    Might explain why the GFS is pulling the storm so much further south than the NAM. It “sees” energy where there is none.

    Just a thought. :)

  • Coach KC

    According to the Weather Channel, the winter storms we have or will be impacted by this year were named Q, Rocky and now, Virgil. Somewhere in there is a joke involving James Bond or Star Trek or Bullwinkle or Sylvester Stallone or Jim Cantore, but I can’t figure it out…any help on that one?

  • Mildcatz

    This is the wording from NWS out of Springfield MO

    “PLEASE NOTE THAT CHANGES IN THE PREDICTED TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION
    RATE OF THE STORM ARE STILL LIKELY WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF A MORE
    SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS MAY WARRANT CHANGES IN THE COUNTY COVERAGE
    OF THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY.”

  • HeatMiser

    Gary, there is some blog disagreement as to whether this storm is suddenly and magically shifting SE of us, or the models showing that are indeed disfunctional it and it’s heading for us still. I think now would be an opportune time for do clue us in with your promised “around 1:00″ update. A few hrs ago you said will be in intensifying comma head for many many hours and get lots of heavy snow…has that changed or no?

  • R-Dub

    40 on my thermometer, 39 downtown, 37 KCI. Forecast highs seem to be on track, actually warmer to the north and east; kirksville and Chillicothe in the low 40s.

  • sedsinkc

    NAM has center of ULL passing near Wichita later today, GFS has it near OKC and GEM somewhere in between. Let’s see where the ULL center actually is when it gets to the longitude of OKC/ICT and then we’ll know which model has a better handle on the track.

  • dudelove

    Olathe is only 36. Come on cold air!

  • Emaw

    37 at joco exec. 38 at my house in north Olathe .

  • sedsinkc

    Local snow lovers want the NAM to have the correct storm track. GFS track would take the heaviest snow farther S of KC and KC would only get a few inches, less than 6 probably 3 or 4.

  • HeatMizer

    poofffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff :0

  • sedsinkc

    It is going to rain for awhile before it snows. May briefly start as mix, but with us being in the warm air advection regime for several hours any sleet at the start will turn to rain once the air column saturates.

    • Thatonekid2

      There is no warm air advection with this storm. The winds are not out of the south and all levels are cold enough to produce snow. The freezing level is at about 2000 feet with dynamic cooling i wouldnt be surprised to see all snow after about an hour or so. There is no sleet involved at all

      • R-Dub

        But the air is actually warmer to the northeast….which is where the surface winds are coming from.

        • Thatonekid2

          True. But the clouds the the northeast arent as thick. Therefore they are warming up and we arent. And besides its the surface temp. It can snow at 40 with conditions like these.

      • sedsinkc

        Yes. There is. Basic meteorology. Winds aloft are from the southwest, transporting warmer air in aloft. Temperatures aloft are warmer than they are at the surface There is always WAA on the east side of extratropical low pressure systems. You can see the warmer air aloft (red line) on this 6 a.m. sounding from Topeka above 800 millibars. Also notice the wind barbs at that warmer air level compared to the colder air near the surface. “http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13032312_OBS/”

        • Thatonekid2

          I see but this is a weak surface low. Therefore its not going to have a lot of waa. The soundings from the bufkit for the nam and gfs both support that waa isnt going to be a big issue above say 2,500 ft.

      • sedsinkc

        You will have to click on the map on the star for Topeka to get their sounding. The link takes you to the default sounding, which is from Norman, OK.

        • Thatonekid2

          All good points. But in reality the air is dry at 800 mb, not taking into account wet bulbing at that level. Snow has been reported south and west of here already and that shows the level cools to or below freezing. Bufkit does not show that level going above 32 at EAX at anytime. The comment was more in relation to surface or near surface temps. The surface layer isn’t deep enough to turn precip to rain and the “warmer” air advecting in from the east is drier, thus allowing more wet bulbing to occur.

  • weatherkcmo

    Has anyone else’s temperature dropped?

  • PILOT MISER

    Temps just dropped 2 degrees

  • yewtrees

    Here is the hourly weather forecast for KCMO

    “http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.30000&lon=-94.73&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical”

  • joweatherisso....

    Models have come into better agreement regarding the
    track of this storm, it has it’s sites on the metro. The big unknown is the temperatures this afternoon and evening possibly holding down snow totals.
    It looks like 6.5″ to 8.75″ in south KC.

    Everybody go get your bread and milk!!!!

  • joweatherisso....

    here is the probability map for greater than 8″ of snow from the weather service

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge08_2013032312f024.gif

  • Kole Christian

    Flurries in Liberty.

  • HeatMiser

    Hey Gary, you promised an update about an hour ago. Where are you?

  • joweatherisso....

    here is probability map for greater than 6″ of snow

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge06_2013032312f024.gif

  • HeatMiser

    Oh yeah, it dropped from 37 to 35.9 in Lawrence.

  • HeatMiser

    Oh no, I take it back… hadnt updated. its up a degree to 39.

  • R-Dub

    KCI 39 downtown 40 Olathe (both) 37. So rising to near 40 by 2 pm is dead on.

    When will the winds switch to the NW instead of NE?

  • Mildcatz

    Already dropping the Warnings to Advisories out in Manhattan.

  • joweatherisso....

    A cold wind is coming up I-35

  • McCabe58

    Folks, it’s going to snow. The track of the storm has NOT magically changed in the past couple hours. And the “go get your bread and milk” comment is way over used and pretty lame to be honest.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    sNOW FLAKES!

  • huskerfn95

    34 in Overland Park by Olathe East

  • Skylar

    Starting to get a few small snowflakes in Lawrence, freezing levels must be pretty low if temperatures are near 40.

  • windyinmarshallmo

    42 here looks like we might get up to 46 today.

  • PILOT MISER

    10m temps are below freezing. The air at the surface to about 300 feet is where the warm air layer is.

    It won’t take long with precip falling to cool down.

  • HeatMiser

    Gary promised update almost an hour and a half ago. MIA?

  • Cacti51

    Flurries at 127th & Ridgeview!

  • Lolapaws

    Seeing first flurries in S Overland Park near JCCC! Great job with that timeline, Gary/Jeff!

  • cjmitch

    North central ks downgraded to wwa.

  • cjmitch

    Speaking of jccc, I wonder if the Arlo Guthrie concert will be cancelled tomorrow night..we have a catering that is supposed to go out @ 5:45 for it.

  • Emaw

    Near 119th and Ridgeview 39 with no precip .

  • Skylar

    Snow and graupel picking up a bit and not melting very fast when it hits the ground.

  • MikeL

    Areas west of Topeka have been downgraded to winter weather advisory (as noted by cjmitch above) which seems to reflect the latest thinking of the southeastward adjustment to the storm track. Looks similar to other storms this season that hit KC area south and east and not so much north and west. Hope next year lines up better for I-70 corridor on the Kansas side.

    • HeatMiser

      No they are saying this storm should produce the most snow along and south of I70 corridor…we should be right in the middle of it. Unless, of course, they are suddenly changing that and saying they were totally wrong…but it’s hard to believe they could be that wrong.

  • Eswar

    The latest ECMWF run (12z) has about .5-.6 inches of QPF after 7PM tonight in Kansas City with more south, which is a slight shift to the north from the previous run. It is also interesting to note that ECMWF temperature forecasts for 1 PM are about 5 degrees too warm for the region.

    No precip yet in SE Olathe.

  • HeatMiser

    Light snow in Lawrence, Temp 38

  • MikeL

    SW Topeka was 36.5 just before light to moderate snow began to fall for last 30 minutes and dropped temp to 34.8. Nothing sticking.

  • Skylar

    Now just a steady llight snow in Lawrence. The flakes aren’t that big but it takes them about 15-30 seconds to melt on the pavement.

  • weatherman brad

    gary said on facebook that he would update the blog at 4 pm this afternooneveryoneso just calm down.

    Brad

    • Lolapaws

      You can’t say one thing on the blog and say another thing on Facebook! That’s just un-American! lol

  • Cacti51

    18Z NAM rolling in now…oh the anticipation

  • HeatMiser

    LoL…I guess three hours late is better than never

  • Baseball Mike

    Good afternoon KSHB weather team-It is snowing heavily here in Berryton but I noticed the Topeka NWS has downgraded the winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory to our west. I am guessing we will be downgraded as well. Something must have changed with the storm! Michael/Berryton/Topeka

    • HeatMiser

      How do you deduce we will be dropped just because several counties west it was downgraded….theres no logic in that …go to college dude.

  • Cacti51

    New blog

  • dudelove

    Light snow flurries starting in south Olathe.