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Winter Storm Update

Good Sunday afternoon bloggers,

The new 18z GFS is in and has a colder solution, so we would see more snow and sleet.  The 18Z NAM was warmer and was looking like snow to start then sleet an freezing rain.  If the upper low tracks farther south we could see a major snowstorm.  If it tracks from western Kansas to eastern Nebraska, warmer air will be pulled farther north and freezing rain/sleet would be the main precipitation type.  The cold air should get in deep enough to eliminate the chance of plain rain.

This is an unuusal storm due to its widespread warm air advection potential.

We will have a quick update when the new data comes out tonight, but Gary will have a much more detailed look Monday morning.

Have a great night!

Jeff Penner

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92 comments to Winter Storm Update

  • McCabe58

    When’s the new data out? 8?

  • HeatMiser

    Just remember the great Joe Bastardi predicts major snowstorm for our area.

  • Skylar

    Thanks for the update! EAX’s forecast discussion was confusing because they started by saying the models had trended south, but areas along south of I-70 would transition to all rain by Thursday afternoon.

    McCabe- 8:30 is the NAM and 9:30 is the GFS

  • Emaw

    Bastardi’s the man!

  • Henley

    Face it, nobody has a clue what’s going to happen…it will change a hundred times

  • weatherman brad

    post the link to joes website, I want to find this out for myself.

    brad

    • Skylar

      I think they’re being sarcastic. Joe Bastardi isn’t that great of a met and focus over 90% of his attention on the east coast cities.

  • OlatheMatt

    Maybe if we can convince Gary to take another vacay we will really get a storm! LLTI! I think I wont start taking the forecasts as gospel until Monday evening/night. It looks like even with any variance in direction we are still in for something significant.

    You snow pushers have got to be excited!

  • plowboy87

    Very excited!

  • f00dl3

    And the hype builds…

    • OlatheMatt

      Well you know how it goes. If they dont say what all the possibilities are, and take a pessimistic approach…and then it hits big….everyone will be asking why and blaming others. Bunch of crybabies you know.

      I think we are past the hype stage, and now in an understanding of something big, but not sure just what form of precipitation will be the majority of this system.

  • RickMckc

    Not only is the 18z GFS colder and whiter (>1″ liquid), every run of the GFS in past 24 hours or so has been going that direction. Yesterday it was showing 500MB thicknesses maxing at 545 during the storm (= ice) and today’s 18z maxes at 540 (=snow).

    Link here:
    “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kmci”

    Looks like a fun week of tracking ahead. Snow lovers will be posting a lot – please be nice to us!

  • 160.5WB

    Loving the humor.

    I want the snow, will take the moisture.

  • f00dl3

    Will be interesting to see if the GFS continues this trend all the way until 00z TUE runs.

  • erock89

    Does this storm fit into the LRC? If so can someone explain? Thanks!

  • dpollard

    Heat miser- reverse psychology is my new approach…I am so obsessed with snow it affects my sleep and health so this is therapeutic for me! Part of my recovery process.

  • ChiefsFan

    So it look pretty definite, snow or ice storm is gonna happen, just of a matter of how much

  • ive remembered too many times in these type of scenarios when the precip type varied depending on what part of the viewing area you were in. I have some serious dental work scheduled for Thursday tho, think im gonna reschedule lol. Good excuse to…

  • dpollard

    Heat miser- I was to the point where I saves snow in baggies and stored it in my freezer years ago and built a snowman on 4th of July one year….freaked the post man out since it was by the mailbox. Once shoveled a dusting from a parking lot to make my yard have about a 6″ base and it lasted about 4 days even after warm days! It took about 4 hours of shoveling but at least had snow to look at long after everyone else’s had left! I have been known to sit outside in a lawn chair dressed warm, listening to classical music while a blizzard rains down on me!

    • HeatMiser

      LOL!!!! At least I am not the only weather freak around here.

      We will get close to an entire winter’s average snowfall in this one storm dudes…according to his Holyship Joe Bastardi!

  • ChiefsFan

    It’s gonna happen, no miss this time folks

  • stjoeattorney

    HERE YOU GO 18Z gfs, “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_114HR.gif”

    200 miles wide of 10-16+ OMAHA TO KCMO 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE RIVER NOW.

  • Emaw

    You think Obama will send federal aid to help us dig out?

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      He is too busy playing golf with his buddies, and his wife and children taking a 100,000 dollar vacation othe mountains.

      All while America goes broke.

    • Hockeynut69

      He’s too busy raising gas prices. $3.69 on the Missouri side now.

      • Jason

        I sure did like what he did to keep the prices below $3 for months on end! Please take these inept political posts to an appropriate board and not on a weather blog. I vote that these (including this one) be removed to set an example, otherwise the next thing you know we’ll be talking about abortion and immigration!

  • mowermike

    Large arctic high will settle over the northern plains early this week…this will help keep us cold enough throughout the storm. Pavement temps should be plenty cold come Wed. night when the storm hits for immediate accumulations.

    All snow folks….

  • weatherfreaker

    Can someone please help me understand how this is different thank many recent KC snow forecasts that tend to go “poof” as they get a day or two out? I am a weather enthusiast, but I don’t have a lot of knowledge like many of you on this blog. I have a lot of respect for those of you who understand the details. Any help with explaining this difference in layman’s terms would be much appreciated. Keep the great discussion and information going! The blog is an excellent source of information for weather enthusiasts!!! This is a fun one to watch!

    • mowermike

      weatherfreaker,

      The go poof solution is still in the game. However, not likely. Arctic high settling south, 4-corners low heading this way and the gulf wide open for business. Just a very good set-up for a winter storm. Still many details to iron out, but, this does have the ingredients to be a big storm for the plains, including KC.

  • mowermike

    I’m just wondering when the model data is going to show almost nothing. Hasn’t it been remarkable how the data has been so consistent in regards to a major winterstorm?

    • stjoeattorney

      I LIKE YOU NEGATIVE VIBES MAN

      • StormyWX

        He might be slightly negative and pessimistic, but he also has a very realistic and good point. Time and again history has proven us that all of the models can change their mind at the last minute and nothing happens at all. That’s also why I’m holding out on what I personally think will happen despite the models seemingly agreeing with each other more and more with each new run…

  • stjoeattorney

    REMINDS ME OF 07-08, 09-10 AND 10-11 AS WELL AS THE EVENTS FROM 72-85….

  • im puzzled why the nws has a high of 38 for a high on thursday..if all precip is going to be frozen

    • mowermike

      lillis,

      We won’t come close to 38 Thursday, maybe several counties south. NWS playing it safe right now, which could very well be right. They have also mentioned the colder model runs and have a concern for more frozen type precip. then rain. Right now, I would say that there’s a 0% chance of plain rain from this storm in our 4-county area surrounding Downtown KC.

  • HeatMiser

    Wrong…he’s the cat’s meow. He calls a lot of stuff earlier than most other meteorologist, i.e. he was calling Sandy way way ahead of the pack as a super storm. Go to the right side of this page and play his 2/16 Summary.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    New NAM coming in…ohhhh the suspense.

  • HeatMiser

    weatherbell . com

  • OlatheMatt

    Has the nws given this thing a name yet

  • HeatMiser

    So what’s the latest models show?

  • mgsports

    I hope the Warm air gets here so it’s Heavy Rain with Thunder and Lighting because it’s time for Spring Storms and no more Snow but Ice maybe.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    NAM once again Bullish on QPF (Whats new). NAM being right is like Ralph wiggum being right about anything.

    • Jacob Honeycutt

      The NAM actually has high accuracy. Plus, the GFS, Euro and Canadian models are pretty close together. This storm will have high amounts of moisture. The NAM has a good chance of being right.

  • translate please weatherman???

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Means the current NAM says there will be lots of moisture. More QPF means higher amounts of moisture.

  • MikeL

    00z NAM = shows sleet storm…not snow…

  • Emaw

    Sleet will eat into snow totals big time, so throw the NAM out it’s wrong. 10-14 count on it!

  • weatherkcmo

    The GFS should be out soon.

  • heavysnow

    I think the entire state of Missouri is due for a major SNOWstorm and the storm will move further south

  • NCSUguy77

    How much wind can we expect for this event? Does it appear to reach close to blizzard criteria? High winds + snow + sleet + freezing rain = crippling set up.

  • f00dl3

    00z GFS is a reality check. Barely 3/4″ of moisture.

  • McCabe58

    A “reality check” lol… Give it a rest.

  • Emaw

    F00dl3, remember the golden rule, if a model doesn’t show heavy snow its wrong. This is going to bE one for the record books.

  • The U of KC

    Hi all. I am new to the blog but have been reading it now for several months and love the information. I just moved here from Florida and have been looking forward to some snow but havent gotten to see much. I have an idea of the models and what they show but I have a few questions. I hear talk about the NAM models and the GFS models and hoe there are on runs and off runs. Whats the difference and when do the new runs come out. Also with this new storm what are the chances that we get anything from it. This whole winter I have seen storms build and head our way but break up right as they get close to us. What makes this one different.I hear talks of up to 10+ inches and other people say we get nothing.

  • MikeL

    00z GFS…not as snow friendly. All precip types still in play. The suspense continues…

  • Weatherman Kumke

    I’m going with a Ice/Sleet storm for I-70 South. with maybe a few inches mixed in. We haven’t had an Major Ice event since 2007 which effected most of Kansas and NW corner of Missouri as it was more snow here.

  • muwxman

    Remember until this system gets sampled by our RAOB (weather balloon) system, there will be some waffling in the models. I will be curious to see if the Hurricane Hunters end up flying in this system while it is over the Pacific. They go out west during the winter months and fly into these systems for research purposes.

    Hopefully everyone takes a break everyday from blogs and models, or you might go insane come Thursday ;)

  • Weatherman Kumke

    GFS was Ice as well. 540 line not south of I-70 until heaviest precip. was well east.

  • Nostradamus

    The Hurricane Hunters have already made multiple flights on this system with dropsondes. So while it has not been fully sampled by the land based weather balloons, it also is not a situation where this system is completely unsampled.

  • ChiefsFan

    It’s going to be a winter storm in kc, just a matter of snow or ice, I think you can pretty much cross out rain, the power cast Jeff showed at 10 there was not any rain in the viewing area, so that’s out

  • McCabe58

    Ice storm in cass county? I think my power lines are underground so I should be good lol

  • OlatheMatt

    I guess we are not allowed to say what our source is but not another station but KS weather outfit has a map based on 18z GFS 120h showing us in 10-15 inches of snow range, and 15-20 further west and northwest…but it not an official forecast.

  • trinlivco

    Bring in on, hope we get 12″ of snow or 2″ of rain. Its still dry around our area. TR

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    Latest GFS snow map

  • Skylar

    This is from EAX’s morning AFD:

    “Looking beyond this forecast time frame, the ECMWF and the GFS are hinting at another strong storm system moving into the Central Plains Monday. This system, for now, looks stronger than the Thursday system so some areas in the Plains could see a one-two punch.”