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Winter Storm & Tornado Risk On The Last Day Of November

Good morning bloggers,

There is a winter storm forming today and it has a strong spring component to the system.  In today’s blog we will look at today’s set up and also look ahead to one week from now.  Let’s begin with the watches and warnings around the nation this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-11-30 at 7.39.17 AM

There are winter storm warnings over parts of Nebraska and South Dakota; Dense Fog Advisories in the gray; and wind advisories over southwest Texas and New Mexico.  A major storm is developing today and this storm is caught is a blocked up pattern.  There is a tornado risk as well.  Here is the Severe Weather Tornado Outlook from the SPC:

day1probotlk_1300_torn

The target area is located over far southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas and adjacent areas of Texas and Louisiana.  High levels of low level fuel in the form of high dew points is surging into this region this morning, and as this storm develops today, at the surface and aloft, severe thunderstorms are expected to form in this region.

Dew Points:

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2Take a look at todays 6 PM surface forecast.  I didn’t plot this map so you can see how it looks without any plotted surface boundaries.  A strong low pressure systems is going to form over the southwestern plains today near the western Oklahoma Panhandle.  Can you see the kinks in the isobars (the lines of equal pressure), the black lines?  The kinks form a surface boundary, and this one is a warm front. There are other features as well.  And, you can see the south Gulf of Mexico flow from deep down into the tropics where the high dew points are being pulled from.  This set up will help begin forming the heavy areas of snow, and the potential severe weather later today down south. It will also produce a chance of thunderstorms here in Kansas City.

Okay, here is the plotted surface map:

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This is really a rather fascinating and unique surface set up.  Kansas City will be north of the warm front, and there will still be a surge of higher dew points northward and it will lead to a chance of thunderstorms tonight:

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The dotted lines show the convective activity predicted. We may see some lightning and hear some thunder in KC tonight.  And, we will potentially see some snowflakes by the end of the weekend as well.  What a couple of months we have just had!

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That is a lot of snow just northwest of Omaha and Des Moines.  And, then we have this to track in about a week. This is the FV3-GFS model that came out overnight. This model and all of the other models are all over the place on this end of next week storm system.  Some models take it way south, and others take it farther north. There is no consistency at the moment.

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy with a chance of rain by evening.  High: 45°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely.  The chance of rain is 100%.  Temperatures rising a few degrees more, possibly up into the lower 50s.
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with morning showers likely, then a west wind shift.
  • Sunday-Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers, and a minor accumulation of snow possible mainly north of KC.  Windy and turning colder.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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