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Winter Storm next week and Acorn check

Good morning,

     There is a storm showing up for next week!   So, we could end 2012 with the beginning of a snowstorm and start 2013 with the end of a snowstorm.  In other words, it could start snowing New Year’s Eve and stop snowing New Year’s Day.

    Thats if the current model trends continue.  Last night’s GFS had a storm taking aim on our region.  Below is the 500mb chart or the winds aloft at about 20-thousand feet off the surface of the earth.   Many times, these upper air disturbances can spin up a surface low pressure areas.  This looks like it could happen next week.  At any rate, notice the “L” on the map that is where the upper storm is Monday night, New Year’s Eve.

   At this point the storm may be under going a bit of a transition as it goes by Kansas City.  Still, it would have enough time to bring some moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  This means we could see  a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow Monday afternoon.   As the storm moves east of Kansas City, colder air rapidly spills in behind it.  That could be the set up for a rapid changeover to snow that could last most of  New Year’s Eve.

   Check out the map below.  Its valid at midnight January 1st.  At this point an impressive surface low has formed northeast Arkansas and Kansas City is in the comma head of the storm.

        

   That is an impressive area of snow across central Kansas into Kansas City.  We might need our snow shovels for this one but its still 4 days away and there is a lot of time for things to change.  So lets sit back and see how the next couple of model runs evolve.

   Okay, as you may or may not know, I’ve been having fun the last couple of years with this theory that one item in nature can be used as a predictor of the upcoming Winter, namely Acorns and what squirrels do with them.  For instance, If squirrels bury a lot of acorns then a snowstorm that requires a shovel is on the way!

   Lets see how the Acorn theory is stacking up so far this year,  

(Acorn theory )-More snow than last year.——————–So far, so good

                                  Snowfall total of 16 inches of snow.——- So far, so good. 

                                  One 5 inch snowstorm ————————Next week???

                                  Our first inch of snow December 1st.—– Oops, it was Dec 20th.

                                  Below average precipitation…………………So far, so good. 

                                  4 or 5 cold stretches……………………         In one right now.

 I hope you all have a great weekend!  I’ll be playing the media soccer game at halftime of the Missouri Comets match Saturday night.  Comet games are fun and the action never stops.  Last night, I went to see Mannheim Steamroller, so I am working on 3 and a half hours of sleep so if you see any spelling errors that is why.  Mannheim puts on a great show and a great holiday tradition.  They are playing again tonight at the Music Hall.  I give it two thumbs up.  

Brett

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67 comments to Winter Storm next week and Acorn check

  • Cacti51

    I’m Dreaming of a WHITE NEW YEAR just like the one I used to know….:)

  • ChiefsFan

    Thanks for the update Brett, keep us updated on the storm for next week

  • MikeL

    The 00z GFS had 8″ of snow at my location (SW Topeka). The 06z run only had 2″. The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away. :neutral:

    • Skylar

      As Brett said, “That is an impressive area of snow across central Kansas into Kansas City. We might need our snow shovels for this one but its still 4 days away and there is a lot of time for things to change. So lets sit back and see how the next couple of model runs evolve.” Don’t give up yet! :)

  • teamster83

    I would like to see this happening. I really dont put much faith into models cause we have been let down so many times before. I really hope it does though.

  • mattmaisch

    Well, the 12Z NAM seems to be joining the party as well. Although that model only goes out to 84 hours, it is indicating accumulating snow prior to that point within the area. Looking pretty good at this moment.

    Matt

  • mattmaisch

    Keep in mind, this is only out to 84 hours. There is still more of the storm that is projected to pass through the area after this point..

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″

    Matt

  • mukustink

    Brett borrowed my models and they were still out of gas. I forgot to tell him they needed fuel and oil :(.

  • mattmaisch

    Kevin,

    I’m pretty sure he’s looking at a lot more models than just the ECMWF and the GFS. He can reference the GEM and several in house models, just to name a few. That said, the trend does seem to be a good one for KC snow at this point.

    Matt

  • lsx347

    “the other station” is also thinking there could be a 4″ snow

  • Skylar

    Looks like there needs to be some moderating in here…

  • mattmaisch

    12Z GFS Map. Still looking good.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108″

  • Adam Penney

    12z GFS still hits the metro with a 5-10 inch snow storm,

  • hobart

    Let’s warm it up and turn it all into rain. I’ve seen enough snow for this year. Nasty stuff.

  • farmingnolkes

    The maps look good just hope they stay on track 6 to12 would work very nice

  • nerd in lansing

    http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif 8-10in for leavenworth county on this map. how do you tell if the map you post isnt outdated?

  • udndcs

    Screw the snow. My flight last Thursday because of the stupid stuff, forcing me to drive fifteen hours for Christmas. I have a return flight scheduled for New Year’s Day. I hope to not be renting another car next Tuesday.

  • melafinatu

    It’s spitting little snowflakes, barely at KCI

  • farmingnolkes

    I know the snow is a big pain in the butt. But the moister is needed very bad so be glad it we are getting it if we go year two of the drought across the heartland it will get very scary in the stores.

  • melafinatu

    Udndcs:

    Yeah last thurs was a total mess up here at the airport. One of the top 5 worst days in my 14 yrs at SWA

  • mukustink

    George when is your last day on air? Thanks and good luck in sunny Florida. The grey haired ladies will love you :)

  • melafinatu

    MikeL:

    I like that, “GFS giveth and GFS taketh away”. Seems to be the story for KC

  • McCabe58

    I disagree, BRING ON THE SNOW!!! ;)

  • McCabe58

    It also always seems to be the story that storms “go through transitions” as they move by KC. Not sure why this happens, but it seems to happen more often than not

  • melafinatu

    Udndcs:

    If it looks like we will get slammed New Year’s Eve, check with your airline, you may want to change flt to New Year’s Day. If the airline makes the determination that weather will be bad, u can change flt for free

    • udndcs

      Fortunately we were able to keep our return flights from that particular trip. The weird thing was our flight wasn’t until 6:30 PM on Thursday night and the snow had stopped much earlier in the day, but we heard that the airport couldn’t keep the runways from re-freezing, thus no flights allowed. I thought that was strange because this wasn’t the first snowstorm in MCI history. Regarding our flights next week, I think we’ll take a wait and see approach at this point, adjusting accordingly if the situation looks rough.

  • All my great writing has been deleted ????

  • What happened while I was gone … All the post are scrambled ???

  • Emaw

    Is this New Year’s storm for us going to be as big as the one that hit St. Louis on Christmas ? Errrr , never mind.

    • Headdog245

      EMAW, there was never a prediction for heavy snowfall in the St.Louis, a couple models wobbled a bit, but they were never under any advisory or watch. 4-5 days before the storm hit, it was predicted to be in Oklahoma and Arkansas, then up the Ohio Valley. It did just that. They just missed it though.

  • McCabe58

    Look at all the snow haters on here today lol… I hope we get this storm just to shut you all up haha

  • StormyWX

    …anyways…everyone is talking about how we might actually get up to 5″ of snow out of this storm, or at least some minor accumulation of 1 to 2″, yet their Powercast model has the snow barely clipping the city, and the areas that are marked in snow seem to only be getting very, very, VERY light snow.

    So that being said, why do they seem to be playing this storm a lot more safe than the last one?

  • MikeL

    Local snow rule 101:

    “The amount of snow received from any storm is inversely proportional to the amount of snow forecasted by the weather models.”

    Corollaries:

    “1. a trend in the models for more snow results in less to no snow.”

    “2. the local area being targeted by the models for the most snow results in little to no snow.”

    :cool:

  • Skylar

    Light flurries in Overland Park.

  • weatherdonkey

    Um, by the way…you said it’s still four days away. Today is Friday, so Friday to Saturday is one day, Saturday to Sunday is two days, Sunday to Monday (New Years Eve) is three days. Not sure how you got four days, but if you say it will snow most of New Years Eve (Monday). We are clearly talking three days not four.

  • ChiefsFan

    Any update on the new data for next week?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_99HR.gif”

    12z GFS snow map

  • melafinatu

    Light snow falling at KCI

  • melafinatu

    It’s actually accumulating a bit on bag carts and airplanes

  • ChiefsFan

    What’s it showing Kcchamps

  • AllDay

    How is it snowing with nothing on the radar?

  • melafinatu

    In regards to last weeks storm, I think one of the reasons the airport was having problems clearing the runways was the fast transition from rain to snow and falling temps. Snow on top of a layer of ice makes it difficult to remove. Also they can’t use traditional salt, due to corrosion of airplanes. Once FedEx plane slid off taxiway, airlines shut er down.

  • Freeze Miser

    Well, look what happens when I quit paying attention the weather for a couple of days. I was transferring files from my old laptop to my new Mac. I need a good long walk in the woods while the white stuff flies. Bring on the snow!

  • melafinatu

    Also realize that weather early in the day almost always has a domino effect for the whole day, even into the next day for airports/airlines

  • Skylar

    Steady, but very light snow now in Overland Park. NAM also starting to come in.

  • Adam Penney

    Matt,

    Don’t let the trolls get the best of you….lol

  • Emaw

    Wouldn’t it be awesome if we got a nice soaking rain on Monday before the cold air and flurries got here.

    • Headdog245

      EMAW, that would be nice, however, where the ground is open to the cold, we now have a frost line. Any good rains would likely roll rather then saturate. We could bust that frost line a bit on Sunday, but not very likely.

      The moisture we got from the Dec.14th and 19th rains, plus the melting snow, then the cold air, we froze that moisture in the ground. That’s the best way to preserve the moisture in the winter, freeze it baby!!

  • Adam Penney

    18z NAM trending farther north. Still has most of the metro in 3-6 inch snowfall.

  • Adam Penney

    However, remember this only goes out 84 hours. This does not show the total scope of the storm.

  • mattmaisch

    18Z NAM

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084″