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Winter is Not Over Yet!

Good Wednesday,

The week started with tornadoes and all forms of severe weather and it will end with a blast of cold and chance of snow.  This is called March Weather Madness!  So, lets go through the next few days.

TODAY: The ground is still dry as we have another day of sun, wind, low humidity and temperatures around 70°.  So, we remain in a high fire danger.  This week more people have died from wildfires than tornadoes, ponder that for a few minutes. It is a miracle there were no deaths Monday night as we had a nighttime, fast moving severe weather event with 80-90 mph winds and tornadoes.

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THURSDAY: This will be another mostly nice day as highs reach to around 70°.  There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening that could produce large hail.  It looks like they will affect locations 50-100 miles south of I-70 or even further south, near I-44.  A strong cold front is approaching from the north.

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FRIDAY: This will be a dry day as colder air comes pouring in from the north.  Our highs will be in the 40s as the sun will still be mostly out.  Arctic air is lurking in the northern Plains.

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SATURDAY: Ok, here we go.  A storm system will be tracking quickly from northwest to southeast as the cold air is in place.  Our computer data is beginning to come together on solutions where we will see snow in the region.  The amounts are a question.  There will also be a rain-sleet-snow line and where that sets up will be critical in determining who sees the most snow.  The storm strength is also a factor.

The map below is for the morning Saturday.  You can see we could have snow in St. Joseph, sleet in KC and rain in Olathe.   This is far from set in stone.

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SATURDAY MIDDAY-AFTERNOON:  On this solution you can see that the rain-sleet-snow lines shift south.  This is going to be an interesting day.  You may wonder if the snow will stick to the roads.  If the snow comes down hard enough and it occurs early in the morning, it most certainly will as air temperatures in the snow and sleet areas will be mainly in the 20s.  If the temperatures drop to the low 20s, it could stick to roads anytime of the day despite the March sun angle and previous warmer days.  How much snow could fall?  This storm has potential to bring more than 2-3″ in some small bands.  If the sky clears Saturday night, then lows Sunday morning in locations that saw snow could drop to 5°-15°!

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Have a great rest of your week and bring the boots, coats and gloves back out.

Jeff

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