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Winter Forecast Preliminary Thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

Last night we discussed our preliminary thoughts on the winter forecast.  We are seeing some different directions this winter will go, and our full winter forecast comes out a week from Monday with our “Wonders of Winter” special a::30 November 27th.

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There is a La Niña developing. In the past week the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures dropped significantly down -1.1°C  below average in the critical 3.4 region. This is a rather important index to monitor.  I did an analysis of all of the past 100 years or so of records and in moderately strong La Niña influenced winters the average snowfall is much higher than when La Niña remains weak.  We will learn more in this next week on these water temperatures.

This Weeks Weather

Many of you continue to look at the medium range models every few hours.  These come out every 6 to 12 hours, depending on the model. Remember, “The Panic Period” (read the blog from a few days ago).  The classic panic period happens from mid to late November.  In my experience in finding the cycling pattern each fall, I have found that this time of the year is the hardest as we still have not seen the rest of the first LRC cycle.  So, let’s just concentrate on these next three days for now.

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This map above shows the temperature forecast valid at 3 PM Friday from the NAM model. Some models have it warmer over eastern Kansas, but the trend in recent weeks is for there to be a lot of low clouds. This NAM model shows temperatures in the 50s near KC, while the GFS has temperatures near 70 degrees. It is forecast to reach the lower 80s near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.  Cold air is building over Canada.  This warm surge comes ahead of a storm system that will intensify as it heads into the northeastern United States by Saturday morning.

Have a great day and thank you for participating and sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go over to Weather2020.com and join the blog there for free as we continue our great weather discussion.

Gary

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