Quantcast

Winter Blast & Winter Weather Special Tonight!

Good morning bloggers,

Winter Forecast Just Issued:  Winter Forecast 2013-2014

How appropriate!  “Weathering Winter” our 30 minute special airs tonight at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News, and then at 10 PM tonight we will have our winter forecast.  And while these two special reports are on the air a cold blast will be arriving. A winter blast!  Rain is moving in this morning, and then tonight it will be cold enough for a mix or change over to sleet. So, we are expecting some sleet and rain tonight and it will be very light.  At this time we are expecting any organized areas of precipitation to weaken as the cold air takes over.  Here is a look at the colder air that is heading our way:

1

At almost 6 AM bands of light to moderate rain were increasing and moving in from the southwest.  The colder air is surging south just north of the Oklahoma/Kansas border near Wichita and still northwest of St. Joseph, MO at 5:33 AM.  The cold front will move through this afternoon and our temperatures will begin dropping.

Weather Time-line:

  • This morning: Cloudy with rain likely.  Winds will gradually shift to the north. High:  50°
  • This afternoon:  A strong cold front will move through with temperatures dropping down into the middle 30s by evening
  • Tonight:  Light rain mixing with or changing to sleet. This will be a light precipitation event. We still have to see how fast the temperatures drop.  Low:  26°
  • Friday:  Some very light snow or flurries, very cold, and windy. No accumulation expected.  Temperatures warming to near freezing.

After the cold front moves through cold advection will be strong. This means that the cold blast will create sinking air in the atmosphere which will reduce any chance of any significant precipitation after it becomes cold enough to cause any problems.  In other situations, a storm system aloft could counteract the effect of the cold advection, but we do not have a strong storm or disturbance moving our way to do this counter action.  A storm is getting stuck way down over the southwestern part of the country. Little disturbances can still help produce bands of precipitation and this is more likely to happen over southern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma later tonight and Friday.

We are waiting on the new data that will be arriving at around 8 AM. I will update the blog around 8:15 AM. Kalee Dionne is on with live updates right now.

Update:

As we discussed, the cold air is going to blast in and dominate. This will cause sinking air and a cut-off to any significant precipitation tonight. We are not forecasting any icing or accumulation and the moisture on the roads should dry off quickly when the north winds blow in the drier air.  We will keep monitoring this closely and if anything changes we will let you know.

Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.  We will have an updated blog later today, including posting an in-depth discussion of the winter weather forecast.  Have a great day!

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

71 comments to Winter Blast & Winter Weather Special Tonight!

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm I wonder why we wont see more in the way of ice? I guess I always have the mindset then when cold air is forced under warm moist air, ice(freezing rain) must be present somewhere… is it that we are already to warm or does the ground have to be much cooler?

    • Drought Miser,

      The cold air advection may be so strong this evening that it will dominate and create enough sinking air to really cut into the amount of precipitation that will fall. There will likely be a location where the balance is evened out and some icing will develop, but this is most likely over southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. We will discuss this within the blog as well when that new data comes out. And, as John said, this is more likely going to be some sleet, instead of freezing rain, and again rather light amounts.

      • Drought Miser

        Thanks Gary and Fred that makes sense about needing a shallow layer of cold air at the surface for freezing rain and thick layer for sleet… I wish it would always be plain snow you get better traction on plain snow!!

      • Drought Miser

        Much to my dismay I think some icing is occurring around the metro…
        …this mornings radar clearly depicted a nice cold punch undercutting warm moist air, I being a good intern thought it at least needed a mention since sleet and ice are very far apart in drive ability …

  • JohnNCWX

    This freezing layer is relatively deep. For freezing rain you need a shallow layer of cold air with an inversion of warm air above in the midlevels. I personally believe that while there will be sleet at the onset that there will ultimately be snow as the predominate winter type over the next ~24 hours…but with light qpf not much snow this time around. But…

    Looks like winter is going to get real you guys around the start of December! Exciting period moving forward in a little more than a week with a dominate mid conus trough setting up. Can anyone say four corners low(s)?

  • Freeze Miser

    Don’t worry, winter friends….snow, sleet, and ice are on the way. Let’s enjoy every moment of this wonderful winter!

    Where is my hot headed little brother?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, the data you showed last night with the snow, did it change?or still look same what’s the % of that happening? Thanks for the time

    • ChiefsFan,

      That was one solution, and I strongly suggested that this was an “outlier”, in other words unlikely. And, the trend in the models is for that solution to NOT verify. We are still watching this closely, but any chance of more than snow flurries on Friday morning is low.

  • Greenstein

    Looks like the bulk of the rain will slide to the south and east of the metro. Almost looks like a dry patch out west is trying to take over.

  • 1buckeye

    Gary. A large contigent of Blue Springs fans will be making their way to Eureka Mo for the High school football semi’s. Can you tell me what the weather will be like Friday afternoon and night from here to Eureka?

    Thanks

  • Jeff

    So the weather team still doesn’t know what is going to happen tonight for sure, but tonight everyone should tune in so Gary can tell you what it is going to happen the rest of the winter. Oh yeah, and you should watch the 6:30 special that will be the teaser for when they actually give you their guess a 10:00. And…they will use a lot of code words like unique and complex and complicated so that when their guess is wrong (again) they can remind you how “complex” this year was. Check out last year’s winter weather forecast, tell me if it sounds like what actually happened. If you tune in, you are a fool.

    I still think this station is the best, but I wish they had a little integrity. Being s sellout for rating is not becoming for someone you trust to deliver accuracy.

    • jjcoolman

      u hit the nail on the head!

    • snowmiser

      Agree. I like the weather team…but every time theirs a snow storm we get 7 model scenarios so gary is never wrong since all possibilities are covered. There could be a riot on the plaza at the opening of the 6pm newscast but WHO CARES.. but first lets go to Gary on the weather…okay back to actual breaking news…The star of KSHB is Gary and thats why we love him…without him the station is 4th rated which they tend to be…the blonde anchor chick is trying to help out the ratings but she won’t last here long. Gotta love the news culture…

  • ChiefsFan

    Thanks Gary, I do remember last night you mentioned that computer model was just one solution, and that model is a bit aggressive usually on precip. Thanks for you time

  • f00dl3

    Wow 41, Kaylee is a joke. Seriously. She shows a graphic with temperatures at 49 at 6 & 7 AM and a HUGE drop to 48 at 8 and 9 AM. On her forecast she says temperatures will take a big drop.

    Are you KIDDING me?

    • barkevious

      Someone in the video department hates her. The screen grab on the web makes her look silly again today.

    • StormyWX

      For one, her name isn’t “Kaylee,” it’s Kalee.

      Two, you’re letting a line on a weather graphic showing a temperature drop bother you THAT much?

  • frigate

    In regard to Kaylee, I think all the area TV weather people tend to over exaggerate conditions, I’ve seen one particular one on another station on weekends that continually does that type of thing. I really enjoy watching Kaylee, as she has so much personality and enthusiasm for the weather. Speaking of which…these recent precip events and again looks like with this one seem to be disorganized and skirting around KC, which makes me think that this winter will be on the below average precip side.

  • Theo

    Thanks ChiefsFan for the return of your incessant questions about snow. Is it going to snow Gary? Are you sure Gary? Are you really sure Gary? Are you really really sure Gary? Do you think your forecast will change Gary? Do you think this storm could move 400 miles South and still hit us Gary? Are you still saying no snow Gary?

    My winter prediction is that ChiefsFan will ask about snow 733 times before March 1, 2014.

  • Supercell

    October/November are historically the nation’s 2nd tornado season. From NWS on “This Day in History”:

    On Nov. 21 1992, a 3-day tornado outbreak began when 30 tornadoes struck extreme Southeast Texas, parts of Louisiana, and Southern Mississippi. Two tornadoes were violent F4s. The first was a 1 mile wide monstrosity that went on a 30 mile long rampage from the east side of Houston northeast to about 20 miles north of Dayton Texas. Its remarkable there were no fatalities, but 16 were injured and around $250 million damage resulted. The second F4, the deadliest of the outbreak, raced a 128 mile marathon through Central Mississippi from around 20 miles south of Jackson northeast to around 20 miles west of Starkville. Reaching one half mile wide, this vicious vortex killed 12, injured 122, and caused up to $50 million damage. Hardest hit was Brandon, about 15 miles east of Jackson, where there were 10 fatalities, 98 injuries, and around $25 million. The outbreak continued throughout the night as it spread east across Dixie. && In 1985, Hurricane Kate made landfall on the coast of the Florida Panhandle in the evening near Mexico Beach Florida. Gusts around 100 mph were reported at Cape San Blas Florida. Kate had been the latest known hurricane to hit the U.S. so far north

  • mukustink

    The Blues are playing the Bruins in Boston at 6 so I won’t catch the “special” at 6:30. I think we will have average snowfall with slightly below average temps 3 degree below average with a 3 degree warranty.

    Mowermike where are your predictions? You have been absent since you said the Chargers would beat the Broncos. It’s ok to be wrong so come on back Gary misses you!!

    • The0

      The blues playing the bruins is as arbitrary a reason for missing the special as you washing your clothes at that time caused u crapped your pants, which is probably what happens a lot. More narcissistic drivel from your pie hole.

      • mukustink

        It really sounds like you need to call an escort service as you seem to be backed up by your constant dribble on here. Yea I’m going to miss a NHL game to listen to a bunch of nonsense and propaganda from a last place news team. I know that you hang on every word and that’s ok. How was mom’s meatloaf tonight? Did she burp you after your nursing? Remember Gary loves you we don’t.

  • mukustink

    Gary great job on the forecast yesterday! It was spot on with the rain and thunderstorms! You get a 100% A++ on the forecast.

  • mattmaisch

    The most intriguing thing the models show today, is the fact that the 12Z NAM is indicating upwards of a foot of snow on Sunday in portions of southern Oklahoma between OKC and Dallas. That would really be something for them, especially this early in the season!

  • Justin

    What does the fox say?

  • yewtrees

    Nice winter forecast write-up, Gary. But, honestly, your winter forecast for 2013-14 based on LRC predicts very similar outlook to other winter forecasts without using LRC, i.e. NOAA. I personally don’t see any unique differences between yours and others.

  • StormyWX

    Will you guys be putting up the special at 6:30pm online? I won’t be able to watch it, so it would be really nice if that could happen.

  • f00dl3

    Latest RAP at the end of the period shows a significant wave of energy breaking off from the 4 corners low and causing warm air advection snow to overspread west central Kansas – further north than previous runs – and a healthy batch at that. Still keeps the main low out west, but if that’s the start of a trend this low could become a winter storm for us FRI/SAT/SUN?

  • stjoeattorney

    36 here now and a batch of precip heading this way dewpoint 33 TOP radar puts STJOE on the south edge, unless it is growing or sagging south then watchout up here.

  • mukustink

    How the hell do you land at the wrong airport? Beginners maybe lol?

    • stjoeattorney

      i laughed so hard when i heard that i almost crapped my pants.

    • Henley

      It takes a number of factors but if both sets of runways are in near alignment, it’s not that difficult for it to happen.

    • f00dl3

      They sent Mulder and Scully down to investigate. The official report states that the pilot spotted a UFO. The crew reported a bright flash, time loss, and were disoriented. Alien abduction is nothing to make fun of!

      Seriously though, that is a big oops.

  • jjcoolman

    sunday’s low is 33 now instead of the teens as forecasted by gary.if he cant give it right,how can we trust his long-range winter forecast

  • f00dl3

    jjcoolman – that’s that bug they will never fix. It will auto-correct it’s self when they update the forecast.

  • Theo

    Winter Forecast from Weather 2020.com:

    Kansas City’s Winter Forecast:
    Near to above average temperatures.
    Above average rain and near to above average snowfall: 22″ of snow.
    Three small icing events, and a 60% chance of a moderate to strong ice storm over the KC viewing area.
    No chance of a drought next spring, in fact we are concerned for some flooding.
    Two major Arctic outbreaks.

  • Theo

    If the maps that are posted on the 2020 website are truly the positions of the long-term longwaves, we are going to get hammered. The strengthening jet stream will push those features SE and put the KC Metro in the line for several snow events, some of which could be whoppers. Also, the positive AO will not have that much effect, because these storms will be capable of producing their own cold air.

    I am going with 47 inches of snow by May 1.

  • mgsports

    http://www.weather.com/video/news-41/top-stories—today-780/watch-out-midwest-41349 shows the Icy in Kc area

    SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY ICE OR SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

  • luvsno

    Yep……go to “www.weather2020.com”. Detailed maps and all.
    The 2013-2014 winter forecast is right there. So no need to worry if you can’t catch it tonight on 41.

    Near to above average temperatures Above average rain and near to above average snowfall: 22″ of snow Three small icing events, and a 60% chance of a moderate to strong ice storm over the KC viewing area No chance of a drought next spring, in fact we are concerned for some flooding Two major Arctic outbreaks

  • Hillsdale_Bruce

    I’m predicting above average demand for pacifiers for many commenters this winter.

  • johnnysoko

    Is it just me or is Gary the drama king of KC weather?

    Winterforecast who cares it will do what it will do no matter what. It’s mothernature and if she’s mad we won’t be glad.

    Mr. Bruce nice avatar! Great picture you have there of the kids.

  • Alex Pickman

    31 degrees up here in St. Joe, with a steady, moderate rain. Everything is coated in a thick glaze of ice. Roads are fine though. Be careful out there tonight. I already hit a slick spot near MWSU on a bridge. This freezing rain has not let up yet. Winter Weather Advisory is definitely warranted here.

  • Kole Christian

    1/4 of an inch of sleet so far in Maryville.

  • Jrock

    No sleet here in easton/leavenworth. It’s all moderate freezing rain. All of the trees and surfaces are iced up.

    • Drought Miser

      Yes I believe today’s first post of the morning mentioned ice(freezing rain) which you get when warm moist air overides cold air. I think we have just that

  • Blizzard365

    Gary, I’m a bonehead and forgot to DVR the special. Will it be airing again? Will it perhaps be available online? I really wanted to see it.

    • Kcchamps

      I missed it also!! :( It would be cool if you could post it online Gary

      • Terri

        YES YES YES! I want to see the winter forecast also!

        Weather forecasts have improved tremendously the last 20-30 years, and I very much enjoy listening to the winter forecasts!

  • Dwight

    Gary, I just watched your winter forecast and it is similar to last year. Except last year you got it all wrong. Last year we had record snowfall yet you forecast below average snow–10-20 inches. You did not forecast any snow falls at more than 5 inches, you forecast an ice storm that did not happen
    How can we be certain this year’s forecast is any accurate?
    Here is your 2012-13 Forecast as copied and pasted from your blog:
    Kansas City Region Winter Forecast Specifics
    Temperatures will be near to above average from December through March
    Precipitation will be below average. Kansas City averages around 6 1/2 inches of melted down precipitation (rain and melted down snow).
    Expect below average snowfall (Kansas City averages around 20 inches of snow per winter season)
    We are forecasting one 5″ snowstorm, one 3″ snowstorm, and a few smaller events
    We are forecasting one ice storm, most likely a weak to moderate one
    Our forecast total snowfall for the region will be between 10 and 20 inches
    The snowfall forecast for Kansas City is 14″ which is more the three times as much snow as last winter

    • mukustink

      The majic 8 ball was out of calibration last year. It went out for repairs and now it’s been recalibrated. This year should be much more accurate.

    • Yes, good points. But, if you could look at the bigger picture you would think otherwise. I predicted most, if not all of the snowstorms. I did not think they would all be historic events and 10 to 12 inch snowfalls. They all happened, but ended up larger than I expected. So the forecast was actually much more accurate than you would think. I don’t expect you to see this angle, but it is my opinion, and obviously what I believe. The late season snowfalls were predicted weeks in advance. I just underestimated the amount of each one. Kansas City goes years without 6 inch snowfalls, last year was the exception.

      I have told my weather teams for the past 22 years that the amount of snow forecast is not important, but yet, it is what we will be judged upon. Each individual storm always has a big range of potential.

      Gary

      • Jerry

        With all due respect, “I have told my weather teams for the past 22 years that the amount of snow forecast is not important” is an absurd statement to make. Absolutely absurd.

        I know quantitative snowfall forecasts are tough – we all recognize that – but that doesn’t mean they are not important! Last February, amounts were important.

        If you really believed they were not, I don’t understand why you put out a seasonal forecast with a snowfall amount.

        • Jerry,

          The point is, that our snow forecast for an exact amount isn’t that important. When a 4 inch snowstorm happens in KC, we usually forecast 1 to 4, or 2 to 5 inches. Add five of those events into a season, then our forecast should be 10 to 25 inches of snow for that season. If the storms max out, then 25 inches could fall. If the storm produces the minimum each time then perhaps 10 inches falls for the season. Can you see my point? So, this is why I say picking an exact number, one number for the season isn’t the end all of a winter forecast. There are other parameters, like my prediction for above average rain and snow.

  • mukustink

    Gary what happened to that “growing” area of precip headed for KC? Did you not look at radar in motion? It clearly showed that it WASN’T making it’s way to KC metro. Please stop the hype you lose credibility when you do that.

  • Jerry

    Based on current road condition reports, you may want a revision of the forecast above…

    “This will cause sinking air and a cut-off to any significant precipitation tonight. We are not forecasting any icing or accumulation and the moisture on the roads should dry off quickly when the north winds blow in the drier air. We will keep monitoring this closely and if anything changes we will let you know.”

    • Jerry,

      I stand by everything we said! Do you really expect PERFECTION! The dry air did take over. The precipitation did end. The icing was minimal! Jerry, put yourself into my shoes every once in a while. The forecast that we made was accurate! There isn’t one echo on radar. The cold air took over, as predicted by our team.

      Gary

      • Jerry

        I’m not seeking perfection, simply honesty when reflecting on a forecast. If you’d simply own your forecasts — warts and all — you’d get a lot less grief here.

        When you forecast black and white like “We are not forecasting any icing or accumulation” and then reports from throughout the region are reporting glazing on bridges, sidewalks, trees, windows, etc… and you still fail to at least recognize such reports, you do yourself a disservice…people will fail to trust you.

  • Pete Capone

    Thought you got this one right. Hope it lasts. We will have over 30″ of snow in the metro this season.

    If it can get this cold with no snow and a positive AO, I think we will have no problem getting cold air this winter.

  • f00dl3

    Does anyone know why the RAP shows us getting radar returns well into Saturday but no precipitation accumulation?