Good morning bloggers,
Winter Forecast Just Issued: Winter Forecast 2013-2014
How appropriate! “Weathering Winter” our 30 minute special airs tonight at 6:30 PM on 41 Action News, and then at 10 PM tonight we will have our winter forecast. And while these two special reports are on the air a cold blast will be arriving. A winter blast! Rain is moving in this morning, and then tonight it will be cold enough for a mix or change over to sleet. So, we are expecting some sleet and rain tonight and it will be very light. At this time we are expecting any organized areas of precipitation to weaken as the cold air takes over. Here is a look at the colder air that is heading our way:
At almost 6 AM bands of light to moderate rain were increasing and moving in from the southwest. The colder air is surging south just north of the Oklahoma/Kansas border near Wichita and still northwest of St. Joseph, MO at 5:33 AM. The cold front will move through this afternoon and our temperatures will begin dropping.
- This morning: Cloudy with rain likely. Winds will gradually shift to the north. High: 50°
- This afternoon: A strong cold front will move through with temperatures dropping down into the middle 30s by evening
- Tonight: Light rain mixing with or changing to sleet. This will be a light precipitation event. We still have to see how fast the temperatures drop. Low: 26°
- Friday: Some very light snow or flurries, very cold, and windy. No accumulation expected. Temperatures warming to near freezing.
After the cold front moves through cold advection will be strong. This means that the cold blast will create sinking air in the atmosphere which will reduce any chance of any significant precipitation after it becomes cold enough to cause any problems. In other situations, a storm system aloft could counteract the effect of the cold advection, but we do not have a strong storm or disturbance moving our way to do this counter action. A storm is getting stuck way down over the southwestern part of the country. Little disturbances can still help produce bands of precipitation and this is more likely to happen over southern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma later tonight and Friday.
We are waiting on the new data that will be arriving at around 8 AM. I will update the blog around 8:15 AM. Kalee Dionne is on with live updates right now.
As we discussed, the cold air is going to blast in and dominate. This will cause sinking air and a cut-off to any significant precipitation tonight. We are not forecasting any icing or accumulation and the moisture on the roads should dry off quickly when the north winds blow in the drier air. We will keep monitoring this closely and if anything changes we will let you know.
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will have an updated blog later today, including posting an in-depth discussion of the winter weather forecast. Have a great day!