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Windy Today, Thunderstorms Father’s Day

Good Saturday bloggers,

Friday was about as good as it gets around here in June.  Today will be a nice day, but there will be much more wind and an increase in humidity this afternoon.  There is also a weak disturbance racing by as well.  This will bring clouds and perhaps a brief rain shower 11 AM to 2 PM, but most locations will be dry or see a 5 minute shower.

Here is Live ESP from 740 AM:  You can see a thin band of showers east of Manhattan, KS.

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The main thunderstorm show for today will occur in Nebraska to northwest Kansas where there is a moderate risk of severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, torrential rain and a few tornadoes will be likely.

Here is the severe threats for today.  The moderate risk does clip northwest Missouri and also we are in a slight severe risk, but our threat will be after 1-2 AM tonight as what forms to our north and west moves in.  Any late night thunderstorms will be in a weakening phase as they approach.

SEVERE RISK SATURDAY MAP:

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The first thunderstorms will form along a cold front in Nebraska between 4 PM and 9 PM.

4 PM SATURDAY:

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9 PM SATURDAY: You can see the significant line of thunderstorms in Nebraska.  If you have outdoor evening plans here in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, it will be dry, windy and warm.

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The thunderstorms will form south then head east towards our area late tonight.  The strongest activity will move across Iowa, we will have a decent shot at thunderstorms, but in a weakening phase.   We will still see some heavy downpours, some marginally severe hail and perhaps some 30-60 mph wind gusts.

830 AM SUNDAY: We are in thunderstorms, but they are decreasing.

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The next forecast issue is will there be new thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening?  The front associated with the thunderstorms will move through Sunday, stall to our south, head back north and washout.  If it holds together, there could be new scattered thunderstorms, a few strong between 4 PM Sunday and 5 AM Monday.  The front will be moving back north and falling apart.

Here is 10 PM Sunday.  A few thunderstorms are around, mostly southeast of KC.

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Here is the timing of the rain for Father’s day.  The best chance is during the morning and we will have to watch for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.

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Have a great weekend!

Jeff

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7 comments to Windy Today, Thunderstorms Father’s Day

  • AW

    SPC says that 3,163,524 are at a risk of significant severe weather…

    June 24th-27th could be a repeat of April 27th-28th. As indicated by the farmers almanac…

    Leavenworth has got 5.90 inches of rain this June, and our average is 5.92. This rainfall should bring us right where we need to be.

  • Drought Miser

    Thanks for the write up Jeff not looking forward to the prolonged heat and humidity but I guess it had to get here sooner or later.
    I have been noticing a lot of chatter about an El Nino setting up so I anticipate a rather warm and wetter pattern setting up from the metro south all points north should dry out rather significantly hopefully this is not the case for us. …

    • Dobber

      If you stop anticipating and start relying on the law of averages….. It will help your anxiety. This time next year….. It will almost be summer to.

      • j-ox

        Dr (Lucy) dobber, how much did the law of averages help us in ’12 & ’13? Your psychiatric help is worth $0.05. Tell those who care where to send a check…knowing full well the stamp and envelope are worth more.
        Don’t make me a troll by posting a response, PLEASE.
        :-)

  • AW

    60% chance of a watch being set up in Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado.

  • Emaw

    That cluster of storms out near Goodland has MCS written all over it for us by early morning.