Good Saturday bloggers,
Friday was about as good as it gets around here in June. Today will be a nice day, but there will be much more wind and an increase in humidity this afternoon. There is also a weak disturbance racing by as well. This will bring clouds and perhaps a brief rain shower 11 AM to 2 PM, but most locations will be dry or see a 5 minute shower.
Here is Live ESP from 740 AM: You can see a thin band of showers east of Manhattan, KS.
The main thunderstorm show for today will occur in Nebraska to northwest Kansas where there is a moderate risk of severe weather. Large hail, damaging winds, torrential rain and a few tornadoes will be likely.
Here is the severe threats for today. The moderate risk does clip northwest Missouri and also we are in a slight severe risk, but our threat will be after 1-2 AM tonight as what forms to our north and west moves in. Any late night thunderstorms will be in a weakening phase as they approach.
SEVERE RISK SATURDAY MAP:
The first thunderstorms will form along a cold front in Nebraska between 4 PM and 9 PM.
4 PM SATURDAY:
9 PM SATURDAY: You can see the significant line of thunderstorms in Nebraska. If you have outdoor evening plans here in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, it will be dry, windy and warm.
The thunderstorms will form south then head east towards our area late tonight. The strongest activity will move across Iowa, we will have a decent shot at thunderstorms, but in a weakening phase. We will still see some heavy downpours, some marginally severe hail and perhaps some 30-60 mph wind gusts.
830 AM SUNDAY: We are in thunderstorms, but they are decreasing.
The next forecast issue is will there be new thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening? The front associated with the thunderstorms will move through Sunday, stall to our south, head back north and washout. If it holds together, there could be new scattered thunderstorms, a few strong between 4 PM Sunday and 5 AM Monday. The front will be moving back north and falling apart.
Here is 10 PM Sunday. A few thunderstorms are around, mostly southeast of KC.
Here is the timing of the rain for Father’s day. The best chance is during the morning and we will have to watch for redevelopment of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Have a great weekend!