Our Spring Forecast Comes Out Monday Night at 10 PM on 41 Action News!
Good Thursday morning bloggers,
The data continues to be all over the place on next week’s storm and we will continue the tracking of this storm below. But, first a cold front is moving through this morning. As of 7 AM it is still northwest of Kansas City and it is a very nice and pleasant start to what is going to end up being a rather windy day. The front was still just to our northwest when I snapped this picture of Breezy and Stormy. Stormy appears to be looking back at the sunrise:
A cold front is rapidly approaching us this morning and you will be able to know that it went through when the wind shifts to the northwest and increases substantially to over 30 mph with gusts possibly as high as 45 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect today. The pressure is down to a very, very low 29.21″ at 7 AM as a deep low pressure area is tracking across the region:
7 AM KCI Observation:
- 49 degrees
- Wind; Southeast 16 mph
- Pressure: 29.21″
On Monday night we opened the discussion about a fantasy snowstorm that was beginning to be predicted by the computer models. Every model run has a different solution and they have already varied from the big snowstorm to almost nothing, back to some snow, ice, or just a cold rain, then off into severe thunderstorm potential with highs near 60 degrees on last night’s data. And, the 06z GFS model (Midnight model run) went back to a winter solution. I will post the 12z model run and my interpretation of what it shows at around 10:30 AM this morning. This is not a forecast by our weather team and I am just having a little fun in the blog as we track this possible storm in the next six days. Model predictions from the GFS model:
- 7 Days out…….29 degrees and 1 foot of snow
- 6 Days out…….49 degrees with rain
- 5 Days out…….50s to near 60 Monday with a cold front & rain showers. Cold air moves in with a few snow showers or flurries and a temperature drop into the 20s Wednesday. A disorganized storm on this model run!
- 4 Days out…….coming tomorrow morning!
Good Morning Gary! Just wanted to drop in and say that I like the day by day model runs being posted. It shows how much they vary day by day!
Thanks!
Brian,
Thanks! As we get a bit closer to the storm it is still varying quite a bit. We should star to narrow down on a potential solution soon. And, good luck to the Jayhawks on Saturday!
Rock Chalk!
What a gorgeous morning. That’s all I have to say today.
Is that you throwing in the towel on next week? lol Looking at the models, this will be a tough forecast for Gary and team!
i am about to head off to class, but just wanted to say what a glorious day here in lawrence on the campus of ku. i am loveing it so far but not very intrigedabout the winds picking up as the front passes through later on today.
have a great day everyone.
weatherman brad
this morning i heard robins singing at the crack of dawn and i have a whole row of crocus blooming, dafodils coming up, feels like spring! But a ‘real’ snowstorm next week would be fun too..
let ti snow so it well give you snow lovers one last thrill you deserve that considering the winter we have experienced.
Well looks like the models are transitioning to spring….finally moving back to thunderstorm days…not that we had much of a winter.
And brad please use a spell check. I do updates from my phone too, so I’m ow you can take the extra seconds to fix the mistakes. Also this week, us Jayhawks, need to make ourselves look much better than Missouri fans.
My view of KU fans drastically changed after they threw a chair us. I’m sorry you’re only good a basketball. It must be scary that we are as good as you in that sport this year. But even if Missouri loses Saturday and you all think that means your better we’ll keep in mind that we still will have the better overall record.
Mizzou: 0 bcs bowl wins… ku:1…you guys are mediocre at football…so don’t start that argument.
You may end up with a better regular season record, but c’mon, didn’t you get bored playing that cupcake schedule? And in the end, it’s all about championships. You guys did well…my friends dad is a tshirt designer and he can design a shirt with your ‘miracle season’ on it.
Everyone knows that year we deserved that bcs bowl instead of you. And if we’re mediocre at football you guys should move down to division 2. And your basketball team played duke, whoop die do. We still have the better record.
I notice you failed to address my fan response also. Glad to see realize that they have to try hard to be even close to how great MU fans are.
Ok…have you seen your fans? No mom Tom posts on your message boards is a classic example of how despicable your fans are. Oh and I do not recall a chair incident.
In regards to the scheduling…we played Kentucky, duke Georgetown, Ohio State…went 2-2 against them. Davidson was the only “bad” loss. Look at your SOS number to ours as well as the rpi. Oh and it took a last minute miracle/collapse on our part for you to win at home.
Last point…when you can continuously sell out and have every seat full for every game in at least one sport, then come talk to me about which program is better. And yes our football program is terrible, but I’d rather have one supreme program than a bunch of mediocre programs.
Kole –
If your a true fan – and trying to portray yourself as being a good fan, then for heavens sake quit running your mouth. Yes MU has a good basketball team this year. Yes MU had a better football team than KU this year(and many years for that matter – but KU does have that BCS win). Yes MU beat KU a couple of weeks ago. But in all fairness, MU just got beatdown by K-State (at Walmart Arena) for the second time this season. Here it is 2 days later and MU fans are already spewing non-sense out of their mouth. The fact is MU fans – Until your teams actually win something that counts (ie: BCS, Final Four, National Championship, Big 12 Title) your going to continue to get disrespected.
One more thing – If you think KU fans are bad – Just wait until you UK fans get a hold you…
Can’t believe how different the weather has been this winter 100 miles north of Kansas City in Maryville. We have had 5 snows of 1 inch or more. 3 inch snowfall before Halloween. The rest have been 1 or 2 inches that have melted quickly.
Had rain this morning and calling for rain/snow showers this evening.
Gary. I am just curious about why you are so interested in tracking this particular upcoming storm on a daily basis? It is just like other storms in the past.
Yewtrees,
When I started doing it I thought there was actually a decent chance that we could get a winter storm early next week. So, I decided to have fun with this. That’s the motivation and nothing more. It is just interesting to see. Today alone is fascinating as a significant winter storm is developing right now just north of us. Des Moines will likely have heavy snow this evening. This sort of came out of no where. Let’s see what happens with next week’s storm. When it comes to any chance of snow we have not even come close to being in the right spot this season.
Well said! Gary. As the spring is fastly approaching, we will see many variations among models which always have a tendency during this time of the year to swing back and forth.
I think it’s good to document the day-by-day shifts in the models. Helps people understand what to expect from models this far out.
I have to say, though, that today’s solution sounds awfully familiar for this winter….
Oh my goodness, can the cold front just stay to the north for a while longer? It couldn’t be any more gorgeous outside today!
What I’ve noticed on the GFS is that it regularly seems to spin up a big snowstorm from 8-10 days out. This upcoming Monday “event” was showing up as early as last weekend as a big snow. Currently, the 12z GFS is advertising a 10″ snowfall next Friday (3/2). Will be interesting to see that change as time goes on.
I read somewhere that the models tend to lean to climatology in the longer range forecast periods, i.e. they take the pure physics-based numerical output and modify it to be more climatologically normal. Maybe that’s why we keep seeing these fantasy storms – it’s “normal” for us to have decent snows at this time of year.
Gary, I’m really liking the day by day updates! Probably beause I do NOT want snow and it’s trending toward just rain, so….
Thank for the updates!
Oh, and….GO KU! ROCK CHALK!
I really appreciate seeing the model runs too Gary! So interesting to see how much it changes. I’m hoping for no more snow this winter and an early Spring. What a great day so far today. Thanks for all the work you do to keep this blog updated.
I would like to dump all models into the bottom of the sea. To frustrating if you want snow. Always start with a snow storm then goes poof.
KU-bowl appearances-12
MU-bowl appearances-29
KU-world series-1
MU-world series-6 plus a championship
Lol….
KU 13 final fours…3 titles
KU-MU football…56-54-9 congrats on winning that series. KU with the only BCS bowl.
Basketball 171-95. KU
Congrats on baseball and football.
Hey Gary,
I find it pretty neat seeing the 500 mb comparisons you post in regards to the LRC. I see a system on the GFS around March 8th, and I looked back to Jan 23rd, and they look very similar. Pretty awesome!
Thanks Alex,
We will continue to show them. This season has been a frustrating one as we may be setting the all time lowest snow total in history.
I’m sorry that you are only great at one sport, your basketball is great, but that’s it. Doesn’t make the whole athletic program great as you seem to think it does. Type KU fan slobbering over their basketball program. Usual KU fan only cares about basketball. Cause everything else is terrible.
Seem right proud of that BCS bowl. Even though everyone else in the country thought MU should have been in one. But no, we had the next highest bowl and clobbered the razorbacks 38-7. Not the first time the BCS messed up, your lucky that your one accidental great year you got put in a higher bowl than you should have.
What happened to the segment that had Torry Dunnan on at 5. She was very easy on the eyes
! MU KU both STINK!
I’ve been in So. Cal (San Diego area) for the past week. Guess what? I totally don’t miss snow & cold weather. I’m loving being back home.
These pacific cold fronts are awesome, a wind shift and then temps. back off closer to normal for a day or two before we warm back up again. Next week will be the same deal….. I foresee ample golfing opportunities in March. Emaw
Gary,
NWS is now calling for an inch of snow up here in Maryville tonight. Is it going to happen? Currently 35 and a very strong north wind at 25 to 30 mph with higher gust.
I don’t really care about MU/KU/Chiefs/Royals/sports stuff. I came here to the weather blog for weather related stuff.
What do we think the risks of severe weather Tuesday afternoon are? If this low tracks to our north, ample moisture flow surges into our area – and winds can back at the surface – may have a set up.
Moderate snow at KCI airport
Nice big flakes to, looks like a dusting as of now.
lucky!
1/2 inch of snow in Maryville
Lol. Let’s go for 65 and Thunderstorms.
Taking the latest GFS at face value would lead one to think a classic low top supercell tornado event would be likely.