Good morning bloggers,
A storm, in Mexico, will begin turning our way Wednesday. It is caught below the main jet stream, but it will get kicked out and right over Kansas City Thursday, but it is forecast to struggle to produce rain in our area.Watch 41 Action News for the updated forecast today and tonight! Let’s take a look at this system.
The jet stream is about to amplify and dive south into the western United States. When this begins happening on Wednesday the upper low in Mexico will get kicked out and it is forecast to move right over Kansas City on Thursday evening. How we are in the wrong spot for a nice beneficial rainfall from this system is very difficult to explain, but the models are insisting on low rainfall totals as you can see on these next two maps. The 12z, latest model run, NAM model came out with over a half inch in our area, which seems more realistic. But, here are two lower solutions from last night.
The two overnight models from the 06z (midnight) model run had a big problem in forecasting any significant rainfall in our area. This first map on the left is the GFS model showing tremendous amounts of rain from the storm that is now in Mexico. But, these high rainfall totals extend from Texas and Louisiana north into southeastern Missouri leaving our viewing area with rather low rainfall totals despite the track of the storm right overhead Thursday evening.
This second map is the NAM forecast model also showing the tremendous rainfall totlas of 5+ inches to our south, but by the time the storm gets up here it just isn’t forecast to produce that much, despite the good track. You can click on either of these maps for a larger view.
This storm, that we will be tracking the next few days, is still dropping south/stalling over Mexico. So, we will continue to get more rainfall forecasts from the models and we will have our rainfall forecast on 41 Action News.
After this system moves by the flow aloft will amplify big time, but there are no other significant storm systems showing up. We have to monitor this closely as it will be turning very cold. According to the LRC, the more active and stormier part of our weather pattern, that would impact Kansas City more significantly, is due in between January 25th and February 20th. We are forecasting at least two more snow events during that stretch, and possibly a third and fourth one. The coldest air of the season is also likely during that almost one month long stretch, but then spring will approach as we move into March.
- A storm will affect us Thursday with rain, but amounts will vary from 0.10″ to hopefully 1.00″
- A cold blast is going to arrive this weekend and last into next week. We will be monitoring the pattern closely, but there isn’t a big storm showing up for our area at this time
- It will likely warm up to near 60 degrees Friday ahead of this next cold outbreak
- Temperatures will warm up again later in the month ahead of the expected stormier stretch from the end of January through around February 20th
Have a great Tuesday! We will have an in-depth weather forecast on 41 Action News. Let us know if you have any questions.