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Will This Next Storm Struggle To Produce Rain?

Good morning bloggers,

A storm, in Mexico, will begin turning our way Wednesday. It is caught below the main jet stream, but it will get kicked out and right over Kansas City Thursday, but it is forecast to struggle to produce rain in our area.Watch 41 Action News for the updated forecast today and tonight!  Let’s take a look at this system.

The jet stream is about to amplify and dive south into the western United States. When this begins happening on Wednesday the upper low in Mexico will get kicked out and it is forecast to move right over Kansas City on Thursday evening.  How we are in the wrong spot for a nice beneficial rainfall from this system is very difficult to explain, but the models are insisting on low rainfall totals as you can see on these next two maps.  The 12z, latest model run, NAM model came out with over a half inch in our area, which seems more realistic. But, here are two lower solutions from last night.

The two overnight models from the 06z (midnight) model run had a big problem in forecasting any significant rainfall in our area.  This first map on the left is the GFS model showing tremendous amounts of rain from the storm that is now in Mexico. But, these high rainfall totals extend from Texas and Louisiana north into southeastern Missouri leaving our viewing area with rather low rainfall totals despite the track of the storm right overhead Thursday evening.

This second map is the NAM forecast model also showing the tremendous rainfall totlas of 5+ inches to our south, but by the time the storm gets up here it just isn’t forecast to produce that much, despite the good track.  You can click on either of these maps for a larger view.

This storm, that we will be tracking the next few days, is still dropping south/stalling over Mexico.  So, we will continue to get more rainfall forecasts from the models and we will have our rainfall forecast on 41 Action News.

After this system moves by the flow aloft will amplify big time, but there are no other significant storm systems showing up.  We have to monitor this closely as it will be turning very cold. According to the LRC, the more active and stormier part of our weather pattern, that would impact Kansas City more significantly, is due in between January 25th and February 20th.  We are forecasting at least two more snow events during that stretch, and possibly a third and fourth one.  The coldest air of the season is also likely during that almost one month long stretch, but then spring will approach as we move into March.

  • A storm will affect us Thursday with rain, but amounts will vary from 0.10″ to hopefully 1.00″
  • A cold blast is going to arrive this weekend and last into next week. We will be monitoring the pattern closely, but there isn’t a big storm showing up for our area at this time
  • It will likely warm up to near 60 degrees Friday ahead of this next cold outbreak
  • Temperatures will warm up again later in the month ahead of the expected stormier stretch from the end of January through around February 20th

Have a great Tuesday!  We will have an in-depth weather forecast on 41 Action News. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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26 comments to Will This Next Storm Struggle To Produce Rain?

  • Dobber

    Tough to break a drought. Must stay positive about it!

  • davidmcg

    NWS Topeka is sharing those same beliefs as you Gary. They are forecasting only 0.21″ for us here in Jefferson County KS for the event. That will amount to watering down the dusty gravel roads for one day maybe. We’ll just have to wait until mid to late February when the last 3 weeks of weather we just had come rolling back through and see what happens.

  • Hockeynut69

    Another bummer of a storm that produces very little for us. When driving over the Mighty MO yesterday it looked dreadfully low. Not good at all. Happy Birthday Elvis! He would have been 78 today!

  • frigate

    Ok…Gary…I went back and looked at my CocoRahs Grain Valley, MO precip records back into the beginning of Oct, which is the time period that the LRC is setting up, to see what pattern I saw. Here’s what I had. Oct 14th 1.20, Nov 12th 1.52, Dec 15th .57 and Dec 20th .54..combined making 1.21. So, seems around every 30 days, we’ve been getting our biggest precip events. If that pattern would hold true…this Thursday Jan 10th, would be close to that pattern if a big storm. Anyway, curious to see what you think about that and hoping for that inch for all of us!!!

    • Jeff,

      It is that part of the cycling pattern. And, we have some potential to get that inch of rain from this storm. But, the model output has been quite low for our area as you can see on the two maps I posted. Hopefully it produces much more than these two models are showing. Let’s see how it sets up tomorrow night.

  • R-Dub

    This is the driest time of the year, so it makes sense that a feature that produced decent rain in Oct would produce paltry amounts in January.

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary—What is the snow chance looking like for the weekend?

  • Not looking very impressive for Thursday rain… I might see some out East in Blue Springs, if the GFS is right… Showing snow chance Sunday night, but with the way this pattern’s been, I sure wouldn’t be counting on it!

  • mowx1

    I believe there’ll be a moisture thief, the convection south of this area will suck up a lot.

  • supersubby

    What an awesome sight seeing 2 great days of weather bloggin’ without all the rude comments. Awesome job KSHB and you Gary for taking control of situation and making this the top blog is has been known for. I am back now and I hope some of the great bloggers that were once on here and I had a blast learning and chatting with will do the same.

  • Emaw

    Gary, I remember last winter you put out a similar long range forecast for around the the same timeframe and it didn’t materialize. I think I even remember an “arctic air watch” being issued, that didn’t happen. What do you see that’s so different this year from last? We’ve had a little bit of snow, yes, and it hasn’t been quite as warm (closer to average) but it seems pretty similar to me so far, DRY!

  • Theo

    2 things:

    1. All systems that have to “panhandle hook” must deal with drier conditions than we have here, just to get here. By the time they get through all of that dry air, their ain’t much left here. This will continue all of 2013. Drought is far from over and will get worse.

    2. “cold blasts” will not produce the arctic air that some people think is coming. With no snow on the ground, temps won’t go below zero, and with all of the bare ground, even a winter sun will warm us up each day. No refrigerator effect.

  • kellyinkc

    Is this the so called cold wave people are talking about?
    “http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/brutal-cold-waves-could-reach-us/3586088#.UOlfINddvnw.facebook”

    • No, they were talking about this next week. And, it isn’t that strong. I am talking about next month, and my confidence level is still just moderate. It is still likely weeks away.

  • goodlifegardens

    Garden City/Creighton 9:30 at night, traditionally the coldest week of the year, and I have 46 degrees. Has the last year been weird or what?

  • Dobber

    4 more snows left this winter ! Count on it!

  • mattmaisch

    New GFS shows a nice snow in KC late in the weekend into Monday. Something to watch for the next few days.

  • KUweatherman

    Jan 13, 2012 : “Arctic Air Watch Somewhat Cancelled”

    http://weatherblog.kshb.com/arctic-air-watch-somewhat-cancelled/

  • Emaw

    Gary, on Jan. 18 of last year you wrote, “the LRC supports bigger and stronger winter storms in the next four weeks”. Is that not similar?