Good morning bloggers,
Heavy Rain and thunderstorms have spread into the area this morning! We have live updates on 41 Action News all morning long!
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Kansas City metro area northward tonight! A strong cold front is moving through our viewing area this morning with record breaking high temperatures ahead of this front! The record high temperature was shattered by nine degrees Monday, and then we set another record high for today just after midnight. It was 68° early this morning which breaks the old record by five degrees set in 1919 when it was 63°. Yesterday’s high was the second warmest January temperature ever recorded in Kansas City:
Warmest January temperatures in Kansas City’s recorded history:
- 75° on January 24th, 1950
- 74° yesterday
- 73° on January 23rd, 1967
This is really a fascinating week of weather that we are currently experiencing in Kansas City. Right now, as I am writing this, a line of thunderstorms has formed along a strong cold front that is in the city. Record high temperatures have already been reached, and we are in a Winter Weather Advisory tonight. WOW!
Here is today’s Forecast Time-Line:
- 7 to 9 AM: A strong cold front moves through ending the record breaking high temperatures. It will quickly drop 20 degrees
- 8 AM-Noon: Rain spreads in from the south, with the heaviest rain south and east of Kansas City
- Noon-midnight: Temperatures drop with snow developing north and west of Kansas City
- Midnight-7 AM: Snow spreads in from the west with the heaviest snow north of Kansas City. Our snowfall forecast map is posted below
This storm and this part of the overall weather pattern is directly related to what happened 51 days, and 105 days ago when severe thunderstorms erupted over Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and other southern states, and it is likely going ot happen again today. Click on Weather 2020 and watch the video and go to some links I posted in the Weather 2020 blog. It is just fascinating.
The latest data continues to indicate a good chance of snow tonight. Here is the map we showed on 41 Action News, and it will likely come close to verifying. There could be heavy snow in spots and the brighter purple and pinks show this heavier snow:
The above forecast map is from our in house computer model showing a band of snow arriving by early Wednesday morning. And, below is one snowfall forecast map, that I showed at 10 PM last night. It still looks about right, but it will likely be adjusted a bit today:
Here is the forecast for later tonight. What a weather pattern! And, we are getting beneficial rainfall in some spots this morning:
The cold front is slicing through our viewing area at 8 AM with a large area of rain and thunderstorms near and north of the front. We need this rain so badly. The Tornado Watch was issued a bit too far to the north, so we really have no risk of severe weather near Kansas City. Southern Missouri into Arkansas has the risk today. Here is the 8 AM surface map:
Have a great day! We are in the storm now. We will update the blog later this afternoon. Let us know what you are experiencing.
Gary
“http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0065.html”
A tornado has a higher chance than accumulating snow does for Today.
ok
Really a tornado has a better chance than snow in January. I’m just curious on how we go from snow after midnight to 70% chance of snow Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.
Record high increases to 68 at 12:53! Awesome storm passed right over us in Independence. CTG lightning, heavy rain, very small but intense hail and near severe winds. We have a new puppy, her first thunderstorm….we found out that she is a weatherdog, barked at every rumble of thunder!
Apparent low temperature of 59 at Lee’s Summit yesterday which probably was the warmest minimum temp ever in January. Won’t go down in the record books as the front justed eased through KCI and MKC, dropped KCI to 47 (or maybe 46).
“http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_36HR.gif”
6z NAM snow map shows 1-2″ along I-70 higher amounts further north
“http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”
My logical and educated guess is that the cold front is somewhere between St. Joseph and Kansas City at this hour. This is a very, very complicated forecast! I will be VERY impressed if u nail this forecast Gary. What amounts are we talking as far as rain goes throughout the day? What amounts are we talking as far as snowfall amounts go late tonight and early Wed morning? I’ll give ya till 9am to make those 2 predictions.
Winter Weather Advisory just posted for Platte County…
I live in Cass county we are not under a warning as of yet.
Does it seem like this one is going to be north of I 70?
Another stupid question, with as warm as its been over the past few days won’t it be hard to get much to stick to the roads, how much will it take to stick?
It likely will be a problem at first, but it depends on if we go into the heavy snow band. If we go into it, and the temperatures drop below 32 degrees, then the ground would freeze very fast. So, the bigger question will continue to be, where will that heavy snow band track?
It looks like I’m not under the advisory in Cass county, so I might be clear till I get closer to work tonight I’m guessing.
Once again, a warning or advisory is issued for the local area and I’m not in it. There seems to be an anti-snow force field over my house in SW Topeka. It’s comical how often I’m on the outside looking in…
Thunderstorms developing…
Good bit of rain falling in Platte City
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.
LOCATION, NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
TIMING, SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 9 PM THIS EVENING, AND WILL TAPER OFF AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
Thunder and lightening and wind shift to Northwest, bit if a chill in air. .
Since I have no windows nearby my desk, I decided to go outside for a quick stroll. Very humid and lightning off in the not so far distance. Really hope to get some rain and or snow out of this.
The storm chasers are out today, there are some strong storms forming in Oklahoma with chasers about. http://www.tornadoalleylive.com/subindex/weather/maps
Raining at 108th and N Oak wind is shifted to NW and temp has dropped 11 degrees in last 15 minutes. Some nice lightning hard to believe it could be snowing by midnight.
Tornado Watch Issued South of Metro:
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
TORNADO WATCH 6 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-101-
105-109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-217-225-292100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0006.130129T1325Z-130129T2100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE HENRY
HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE VERNON WEBSTER
$$
Woke up 63 degrees. Took shower and 30 min later it was 47. Are we getting cooler faster than forecasted ?
.25 inch here in Independence from that thunderstorm that rolled through at 1:30. Really feels tropical outside.
Wow, the forecast sure changes quickly.
Gary, Can you explain where this came from? Does this mean we are finally going to see a wetter pattern? How does this fit in the LRC?
This is a storm that has now occurred three times. We did get some rain in October from this part of the pattern, and we had showers on the back side of the storm in December. I would like to have other storm systems like this one, but it will likely continue to be a struggle. Let’s enjoy this one while we have it.
Thanks, It seems that each of these storms as produced more moisture each time. Let’s hope the next has even more moisture.
*has produced
Tornado watch in the middle of winter. WOW! I cannot imagine what the spring will bring us, 50-55 days from today.
if the pattern holds true, we’re probably in for a wild ride in the area… but kc metro maybe not so much? crazy weather for sure…
The 12z NAM is even more favorable for snow, especially for me in Platte City. Seems heaviest snowfall is north of the metro but the band appears to be wider on this run of the NAM.
Severe thundertsorm warning for Bates and Henry countiesin MO.
Wow! It is really coming down hard here in Lee’s Summit. Most of it will run off though, which is sad. This needs to be more of a slow, soaking rain to be useful. But hard is better than zilch. At least it’s cleaning the roads well!
Has anybody heard the tornado wirens yet? Since it hasn’t been tested for a while, I wondered it is working.
*sirens
Yewtrees,
The sirens are tested once a month. As someone else said, generally on the first Wends. of the month.
Saturday could also bring 6 early weeks of Severe Weather Season if he doesn’t see his shadow.
The sirens in the Northland are tested on the first Wednesday each month even during winter. I have heard ours tested because I telecommute on Wednesdays and hear that at 11am. So I know they still run the test in that area and would assume in others as well.
Legend has it that there’s an odd, sort of grumbling sound that accompanies hard deposits of a clear substance from the clouds. Someone once told me it was called “thunder.” I swore I heard something like that this morning on my way to work.
I urge those with too much excitement, whether it’s the tornado chasers or the snow freaks, to put on their Depends.
This is an anomaly. Winter watch bordering a tornado watch. Very rare, especially for January. Would be nice to get an inch of rain. Ground will be warm when the snow falls. Not much will stick, if any, in the metro.
Nice thunderstorm here in Clinton. Pea size hail and gust to 38mph. Between last nights storm around 2am and so far today, I have .6 of rain.
Here comes negativity , right on cue. So what if it is anomaly, it’s weather and better than the last weeks of dry boring.
Probably kind of rare to have tornado watches and winter weather advisories issued adjacent to each other. Strange weather, but loving the thunder and the rain.
A pretty good soaking appears to be on the way…this sure wasn’t what I (or anyone, it appears) expected today.
Took the words right out of my mouth Jerry
This is welcome. If we can receive over 3/4 inches of rain/melted snow out of this storm at KCI we can break the streak of consecutive months with below average precipitation. 0.15 inches there so far today.
Jerry,
Yes it may have not been forecast well, but the models yesterday did indicate the rain shield setting up further NW then first thought. This will be great followed by some snow cover tonight should that materialize.
We’re actually in a good set-up this morning, warm moist air riding up over the boundary into the now cooler air. Great news!!
I was singing and smiling the whole way to work today. Rain and thunderstorms?!! A good night’s sleep only to be awakened by occasional thunder! Amazing! And now a winter weather advisory??? This reminds me very much of the December 19-20 event, but I detect more ran as the downpours have been very consistent. Any chance we will see more than a dusting? I say YES! Good day in Olathe!!!! (Can you tell I am happy!?)
Couldn’t agree more Jerry. 4 – 5 days ago, had an 10% for precipitation and 2 days ago up to a whopping 30% and yesterday morning 40% and suddenly 12 hours out 90%. Not difficult to b the “most accurate” with this kind of forecasting. I love the rain, and glad to see it! Wish u all a wonderful day! Enjoy the moisture! Joe Joe u up for coffee this week?
.18 of rain so far from today’s passing rain showers. In platte city. Rain coming down slow and steady. Soil is really cold and dry still about an inch below surface. Going to need alot more of this good liquid.
Looks good for the metro to get over an inch. That should keep you off the practice tee Davey! Mike should get a super hero cape with “Model Boy” on it! Maybe pilot boy too!
Theo, I would wear it!!
I posted this last Tuesday:
“Today is Tuesday, the GFS(6z run) is predicting rain for Sat. night into Sunday, let’s see how it ends up. It also has been predicting a storm for the week of Jan. 28th for better then 10 days now. Specifically Jan. 29th-30th. Let’s see how that pans out”
Yes, the model has wobbled back and forth on where the heaviest rain was going to set-up. Mainly stressing SE of here(which will still likely be the heaviest amounts when all said and done)until yesterday when the models showed the NW axis of precipitation coming further NW.
Not perfect, but forecast that far out will never be perfect. The idea was that there was a potential and it warranted revising as the storm came closer. Sure enough, the GFS forecast more then 7 days ago has verified. Amounts will always be adjusted, that is something that will never ever ever ever be perfect from that far out. Fortunately, we are in the right spot today. Wonderful news.
This Heavy Rain could turn into Ice with Flooding going on.
Nice steady moderate rain in south OP. Just had a long rumbling and then boom of thunder that shook the house. Sweet!
Hi Gary,
Long time poster and reader until I moved down to Paducah, Ky area. I know we have a risk of severe weather down here but in this mornings discussion they stated that the trough (according to the NAM) is expected to gain a negative tilt and the low closes off…what does that mean? All they said is it “isn’t good for the home team”. I know I’m not in your area anymore but could you or someone explain that to me? Thanks!
The upper low is going to become quite strong, hence more rotation (vorticity) in the atmosphere, hence higher risk for tornadoes in the warm sector of the storm.
Current tornado risk forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.
“http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif”
Yep…I saw that. I’m now in a moderate risk…for storms after sunset. GReat…
Up to .38″ in Greenwood MO. Currently thunder and light rain.
This wonderful rain, is sure a pleasant surprise…I had prepared myself for another dissapointing precip event. Glad the models were off on this one. Gary, anxious to hear what happened that KC got in on the precip.
Latest gfs has more snow for us
Is my rain guage correct?? Over 2 inches today and its still raining!!
Pleasanton, KS
When was this HEAVY rain ever in the forecast ???
it wasn’t..but who’s gonna complain? lol
If this dumps 6″ on us I’m calling this the January WTF.
Kumke, looks like you’re prediction is gonna be wrong. Better luck next time bud
I’m glad the forecast was off. This rain was forecasted to be east and we are benefiting that it didn’t go east. Great to see a decent rain for a change. Just a small dent in the drought situation but hopefully this will be the start of more beneficial moisture! Hvae a great day bloggers and bloggeretts.
Your*
As of 1025, temps dropped from a high of 68.1 at 2:35am to a current temp of 45.0 with steady rainfall at a rate of 0.23in/hr. Rain started just after 0800 right about the time the temp started drastically dropping. So far today have rainfall total of 0.86in, bringing the precip total for the year so far to 1.26 inches.
I’m loving the frequent lighting and thunder. No doubt we’ll get over an inch of rain for this storm… the question is… how much snow???
http://www.raytownweather.com
Gary, what is the new data showing for snow tonight here in the metro kc?
AFPILOTWXJUNKIE
1 wk, 3 days ago
“I’m actually seeing chance of rain on 28th and snow on 29-30. Of course long way out but would be nice to get both forms of precip.”
As mike said this was originally in the models for a while. It seemed to be fickle as to te extent of the precip, but it stayed on the playing field for a good while. Nice to see a model that far out finally come through for us.
A much appreciated .23″ of liquid sunshine so far in this part of Lawrence.
We’ve also gone from a high of 69 degrees at 1:15AM to now sitting at what is so far the low of the day of 42.
Steady fetch of rain all the way to Oklahoma City. May rain in the metro past 2pm. Should be a fantastic soaking.
No tornado reports yet.
I’m just curious on the snow tonight
RUC shows us in heavy snow – excess of 1″/hr – for several hours tonight, if I’m reading it right. Not just north of I-70 – entire metro area looks to be in the bulls eye now. Admitted, I generally don’t trust the RUC that much, but none of the computer models have really had any sort of handle on this storm system. I think a safe estimate is anywhere from a dusting to 5 inches.
So currently, the RAP, NAM, and GFS all have KC getting a substantial snowfall late tonight/tomorrow morning. 2 more NAM and GFS runs and a bunch more RAP runs to go before the event. Maybe the models now think this storm is going to be strong enough soon enough to wrap the abundant moisture available into its developing deformation zone or comma head before it passes us.
f00dl3,
I see what your saying on the RUC concerns. Remember the Jan 11th snow that fell to our SE, earlier that day the RUC showed potential heavy snow here. It wasn’t that far off, but it certainly missed most of the metro. It will be close tonight.
Am I reading the most recent model data correctly, that both the NAM and GFS are now giving us the potential of at least 2 to 4 inches of snow in KC? Is the 12z one of the “off hour” model runs that should be looked at more critically?
On and off moderate rain in Greenwood. Up to .66″
What a great 24 hours if I can get snow and beneficial rain both!!!
Wow, that was quite some clap of thunder for January that just occurred here in KC North. Sounded like a bomb went off.
NAM gives 2-5″ for KC metro, GFS gives 3-6″ for KC metro, RUC/RAP if I’m reading it right looks to give 3-6″ for KC metro. This is getting interesting! Expect 1″ to melt on contact – but that’s still 1-4″ of snowfall!
If the 18z NAM and GFS runs still show this, then maybe I’ll bite and get on board with it, lol. It’s exciting to see for snow lovers if it shows consistency on the next model run.
Tornado warning East of Nevada. Radar indicated.
I can see the Grass and part of Sidewalk on 101st in Overland Park with P. of Water and when gets below 32 could Freeze up.
Yea sedsinkc heard it too
The temperature sure fell faster than forecasted. Noway we get that 60 degree mark forecast lol. I have been sitting pretty steady at 41 degrees since about 9 o’clock. I’m wondering if this means snow may fall earlier than the 11 pm start time.
A question for our plow guys? With the rain still coming down and washing away any spread that may be put down before transition to snow tonight, are you expecting poor driving conditions in the morning?
I’m pretty skeptical about snow…the rain shifted north and west to get us…then we’re expecting the snow to shift south and east to get us too? Doesn’t seem to fit.
It’s a function of the upper trough deepening more and sooner than the models earlier thought it would. This caused more over-running of the cold front than the models predicted a couple of days ago. I too am still skeptical about the snowfall potential, but if the next model runs still show it this strongly I might “take the bait” and believe it.
Anyone have any rainfall totals for Olathe?
I am pleasantly surprised with the heavy rain and thunderstorms. The storm aloft is still deepening, strengthening. It dug in harder and is now swinging our way. We needed this bad. Now….we get to forecast some snow. Rainfall amounts anyone?
Quick question… Is all this rain going to take alot of the moisture away for snow tonight?
Already getting reports of possible tornado damage in Missouri. It is going to be a long day/night for residents of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley region, esp. for January.
1.08 so far in Blue Springs.
Just looked at some photos posted by my alma mater of the 8 inches of snow they got on campus last night. Leaves me wishing that all of this rain would change to snow so we could enjoy some real winter here. Oh how I miss those snowy Minnesota days! Any chance now that the storm obviously has shifted out way that we could get much more than a dusting of snow?
0.75 inches of rain in KC North just S of Gladstone, still light to moderate rain falling.
Gary 1.2 inches of rain is my total so far in Platte City. Rain has let up now to just a mist.
The storm is deepening and this is not a rain/snow line issue as the upper level low is going to kick a new batch of precipitation out. The rainfall this morning has no impact on snow totals from the upper level low tonight.
Where is the chatter about ice accumulation?
Thanks f00dl3, I thought that would be a possibility too. Hopefully it pans out. In my opinion it’s hard for models to predict how much snow will fall. It all depends on where the heavy snow bands sets up and how long it lasts. We could be surprised tonight, or we could be disappointed. Either way we are getting some nice rainfall totals right now!
G-man: I have exactly 1″ here in W Lenexa.
Looks like you’re going to need to update your snowfall map!!
Survived this first go round. Happy to know the sirens are working this year. Osceola had heavy rain, good wind and lot of pea size hail. Hearing from authorities that some farms and power lines just south of here got hit. Either straight line or tornado. Had good rotation just east of Eldo before it moved into our county. Now they are warning that there is another storm about an hour away and could be just as bad.
Incredible how dynamic these storms can be. Record high of 76 degrees downtown thanks to warm air advection in the warm sector, to 67 degrees at Midnight down here in Lenexa with a storm moving through that if it would have been March would have for sure been a tornadic LP supercell. Then a near 20 degree temperature drop in 15 minutes with a cold front around 8 AM, to a steady rainfall, to the chance of accumulations of snow at 25-27 degrees the very next morning. Insane.
“http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”
GFS showing about 4 inches for us, I’m not buying in yet.
Well .08 in of rain just to our southeast by 15-20 miles looks like some will receive 2+ inches of rain.
temp has dropped to 37 degrees dewpoint 34 so when/if the snow comes it will be all snow.
record high of 73 yesterday and 68 this am. but 2 inches down there is frost in the ground, that with 37 already will make us ready for snow and at an earlier start or it will all shift sooutheast.
well here is gfs “http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_30HR.gif” and like I believe it 8-10 here 6-8 metro yeah right….
Over an inch of rain here in Nevada, MO. Still raining. Just a few limbs down. Looks like the storms got more severe just east of us.
I am predicting 4 inches for platte city. 2-3 inches metro. The NAM and RAP have significant snowfall band will pass directly over our area. More snow in St Joe. I say 6 inches up there.
Okay so there is my snow map
Temp is 43 dew point 43 in PC. Highest I have seen dew point in a long time. Love the moisture we are getting. Now time for the temp to come on down and hit that cold line.
Dew points across the region were near 60 just yesterday.
Temp is starting to fall down to 39 right now. Can feel the snow approaching. Lol
Latest RUC gives 4.787″ of snowfall if I’m reading it right:
13/06 0.01 @ 540 (08.5:1) 0.085″
13/07 0.03 @ 539 (10.0:1) 0.300″
13/08 0.07 @ 536 (10.0:1) 0.700″
13/09 0.11 @ 535 (10.2:1) 1.122″
13/10 0.13 @ 533 (11.0:1) 1.430″
13/11 0.10 @ 530 (11.5:1) 1.150″
4.787″
fOOdl3: what website do you use for your RUC output?
AFPILOT where in PC are you ?
Problaley have 4-6 inches in metro kc
NWS Des Moines is upgrading parts of the WWA to a WSW – including the south-eastern 2/3rds – for 4-6″ of snowfall.
Gary, Believe it or not its still raining here in Chillicothe at 12:30 What a welcome site this rain is, right now I have 1.20 in the rain guage. Sure hope we get the snow on top of this rain. Mother nature is being very nice to us today. Just hope these systems keep coming. TR
1.20 is not a drought buster but for Jan. it is good I received almost nothing. 10-12 more like it and you will be back in the land of green hay.
DES MOINS HAS ISSURD WATCHES NOT WARNINGS
RETRACT THAT THEY WENT TO WARNINGS 4-6 ISOLATED HIGHER AMNTS.
miller90, radar image looked like it really ramped up just east of you. Springfield tv was showing strong rotation outside of Eldo Springs. Osceola has a rap of never sounding the sirens. They sure did this time. Right now have another storm blowing thru. Thunder is so loud shaking everything not tied down. Go to admit, I missed hearing that.
Reason it’s raining so much more than was forecasted yesterday: I washed my car yesterday.
I hear ya. I had my car detailed yesterday inside/out.
Thanks to both of you! You should wash/detail your cars more often! lol
A handful of people were preparing for disappointment with today’s rainfall, but it delivered above our expectations. Now lets hope tonight’s snow delivers above our expectations as well.
AFPILOT where in Platte City are you ?
Just curious, im by Seven Bridges and I hope we had an inch their.
Glad to have some fellow Platte City bloggers on here. I live off running horse
I am off running horse as well…we got a good rain. Nice and steady for a few hours. We are back to just cold and damp air right now.
Though the rains were good today, we still didn’t fully absorb all of it.(most of the rain was steady and not all at once) Still a frost line below say 2″ or so.(especially clay and platte counties) Lots of standing water and runoff. Still a good soaking, but we did lose some to runoff.
A few bloggers had mentioned that they encountered wet soils yesterday, that wasn’t due to recent rainfall or irrigation practices, it was the frost line melting in the soil.(i too witnessed that while taking advantage of the warm day to walk some properties of mine) The warm-up was timed well, otherwise we may have lost a lot of the moisture today from runoff.
Currently sitting at .98 inches at my office in Northtown. 1.2 miles north of Downtown.
cool nice to meet you melafinatu, hope we get dumped on tonight!!!
Rain total now .84 inches here in KC North just S of Gladstone.
Parts of town now are above average for total precip. for Dec. and Jan.(meteorological)(includes melted down snow)I’m currently .39 inches above average here at my office. I’ll have to see how much I got at the house in Liberty later today to see if that will take me above there also.
Remember, this isn’t saying much, we average the least amount of precip. in Dec. and Jan. compared to all other months. I believe Olathe and Lee Summit are in excess of 1″ in surplus for Dec. and Jan.
Yup. That sharp NW to SE precip gradient is still in effect, as it has mostly been for awhile now. KCI has only had about .4 inches of rain today and remains below average for January.
1″ of rain so far in Cleveland Mo and still raining.
any updates on modelitis yet???????
Snow now forming west of Garden City, KS
18z NAM rolling in – though it may be more nowcasting at this point as snow is already forming.
Yeah what are the models saying, more snow for metro kc
Rainfall beginning to wrap up in southern Overland Park. 1.11″ at 151st and Antioch.
Latest NAM not quite as good but still shows snow.
NAM was more negative this output. I am not sure why it changed still has snow but not as much as previous run…the RAP HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLING. SO THE TWO MODELS DON’T EXACTLY LINE UP ON AMOUNTS JUST THAT IT WILL SNOW…
Sorry for all caps…
New NAM not as impressive on the snow.
Looks like the NAM is trying to give us about a 1 to 2 inch event in town, potentially. Let’s see what the GFS says.
The new NAM takes longer to develope the band of heavier snow, giving us lower totals, but otherwise it isn’t too different then 12z.
Seds, still has us in a 6 hour snow band. That would be good additional moisture. It still showing 2-3 inches. 18z is off run, not that it matters.
Like Food said, its nowcasting time.
Yes, and snow out around DDC is growing in coverage and intensity.
Liberty or Smithville could end up the snow winner in the metro from this one.
Do the amounts for leavenworth still stand as 5-6in?
What’s everyone thinking for amounts for metro kc? What time is is gonna start here?
My rain gauge has 2.90 and its still raining. Crazy amount that we are all enjoying down here.
Monica, Pleasanton, KS
KTOP is sticking with the WW Advisory, did expand it slightly southwestward. 1-3″, 2-5″ in far NE KS.
Right now, I think 1/2 to 1 inch south side to possibly 3 inches at most on north side of the city. Core of the city, 1 to 2 inches.
the ground ought to still be pretty warm from yesterdays warm temperatures so seems alot of snow would melt at first.
I am not sure what the temp really is but I am hovering now just above freezing at 34 degrees according to my thermometer.
Anyone else have a good read on temps right now in our area?
AFPILOT how much rain did we get in PC ?
Measured about 1.5 total. I am not certain until I get home and see for myself, my roommate wears glasses lol….
It seems a little odd that it is after 3:00 and Gary still hasn’t updated this blog…would like to know the latest on the snow forecast.
1.25″ in Cleveland MO still sprinkling boy we needed this!!
I agree Heatmiser, we finally have all kinds of weather to talk about and no updates. Maybe he’s in meetings? I’m anxious to get home and see how much rain fell at my place.
AFPILOT,
I don’t think you received that much up in Platte City. Unless you caught a thunderstorm this morning that dropped a quick .50 inches, you likely are less then the KCI airport(official reporting station) the total there is .47 inches. There was much more to the south and east of you that did hit most of the city. Radar estimates show you on the far NW edge of the rain shield today. Some parts of Jackson and Johnson counties are approaching 1.5 inches.(this is going off of the NWS observation page)
Yea, I am still waiting to see but we did have some boomers that passed our way starting around 6 am…my guess is we are around the 1 inch level based on what fell and the t-storms total were just at 3 that passed over us.
WELL I’m looking at it all, and i am of the opinion that STJOE just may get 4-5 inches baseed upon the models and forcasts issued by TOP, DES, and OMAHA for their areas around their area that iclude STJOE.
“http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EAX&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=yes”
radar estimated amounts from the NWS. The heaviest(which was forecast by the weather models for days) did indeed fall south and east of KC. We still had our fair share city wide.
I still don’t think it’s going to snow much in Johnson County or anywhere south of the river. On the other hand, I sure as @#$% didn’t expect to get 1.04″ of rain today. Wow.
Problem is their nowcasting hasn’t been any better than their forecasting. Modelitis will continue to creep in. Facts beat no facts.
And haters, I just want to remind you:
Ugly starts with “U”
And awesome ends with “ME”.
“Facts beat no facts”
Yep, I know what you mean, I have been posting facts for days and you seem to go missing.
How did all this dry ground and dry atmosphere due to the dry ground produce so much moisture today. Matter of fact, the drought in eastern KS. is worse and they received much more rain on even drier soils. I thought you said no snow or major precip event until after Feb. 5th. You also only predicted .10 inches of rain for today and no snow tonight(yet to be determined)
There just some of the facts! I have many more.
Today’s rain event proves your argument wrong. You win some and lose some.
I’m thinking we got more than .47 in Platte City. I don’t have any official gauge to go by, so I could be wrong. We had some pretty good boomers earlier, between 10-11. A good steady hard rain. All dry for now. At work now, KCI, I’ll keep ya posted on what’s happening at the airport tonight
Gary,
I just looked at your 7-day and you’re showing a 70% chance of snow on Thursday. Error or more snow?
Thanks!
I would say the “hush” from Gary and the team is a good sign
It’s really started fogging up in the last hour here by JoCo Executive, visibility is probably around a half a mile or less in my neighborhood.
One thing to realize is because of the fact we have been so cold and the drought we are in, the moisture is going to have better evaporation than if the soil was completely thawed. Will this add to better snow totals tonight?
G: officially 1.15″ of rain here in W Lenexa
I just saw a tweet that leads me to think some part of northern MO has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Not showing on NWS maps yet.
18Z GFS looks less impressive than its predecessor, just as the 18Z NAM did. Looks further north once again, with smaller totals in and around the KC metro area. Was hoping it would trend the other way.
Matt, it stills show several hours of snow(like 6).
Assuming its all snow, still shows about 2-3 inches. More so north of I-70….nonetheless, more moisture to follow a great day of moisture.
Thing is, I don’t think the model is assuming it’s all snow. There is currently a 10 degree temperature differential between KCI and Lee’s Summit. Obviously, the sooner it’s colder, the better. We shall see..
1.45 in Blue Springs.
There’s a winter storm warning for northern Missouri now
Maryville, Bethany, and Trenton MO now in Winter Storm Warning until noon tomorrow.
Salina had a midnight high in the mid 60s and now we’re gonna get a couple inches of snow. A high of 65 and a couple inches of snow all in 1 day. Fascinating.
I’m still thinking 1 to 3 inches for KC metro after GFS came out.
Theo you sound oddly familiar to a couple other bloggers that are no longer with us.
Doesn’t he though!
18z GFS kind of meager as well for those curious.
It looks like the snow is trending more southward towards metro kc in heavy snow
That sounds awesome! Not sure there’s any truth to it, but, it sounds great to me!
road temps, and even bridge decks are still well in the 40′s around the lawrence area, that will have a major impact on totals.
The 21z RAP has less snowfall predicted. But we are inside of 6-9 hours for it to start snowing. The models are behind the power curve in my opinion. I still think 4 inches north of I70 and 1-2 in metro. 6 inches for St Joe. Time to start tracking radar for snow bands
WTF – Gary still hasn’t updated this blog? Did he fall off of a cliff or something? Common Gary, snow is coming and you haven’t updated this early this morning. It’s after 4:00…catch up!
The latest NWS map shows 2-3 for the Lawrence area.
Interesting map. Not sure I believe the 3-5″ they’re predicting, but surprising because they usually take a conservative stance on totals.
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/classic/USKS0620?mapdest=US_Snow_Forecast:CN
“http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2013012920&plot_type=acsnw_t5sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t5&adtfn=1″
latest RAP(ruc)snow forecast has 3-6″ for the metro
Gary starteda new blog entry….it tells us nothing expect updates at 530 he says.
New Blog
So at this point the NAM, GFS, and RAP are all backing down on snowfall totals for KC. Hard to argue with that. I loved the trend this morning, but there is no real positive spin you can put on the afternoon data if you, like me, are hoping for snow.
I’m throwing this out there, I think along with a couple other sources NWS in Topeka and “the other guy” that we are probably going to end up with 1-3″ of snow. This is my final snowfall forecast. I guess we’ll see. Everyone drive safe in the morning, the roads are sure to be slick!
Ice and Snow Yes for both but how much have to wait and see.