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Wild Weather!

Good Wednesday,

The next five days of weather are going to be crazy across the middle of the country with severe weather, flooding, frost, freezes and snow as we track three storm systems, the strongest this weekend.  Kansas City seems to be in the more tame part as we will see several periods of rain, but should avoid the severe weather and snow.  We could have frost or light freezes.  There is much to discuss so let’s get started.

WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW: There is a weakening upper low moving into Minnesota as a stronger system rotates around it. As of this blog writing it is centered in southwest Oklahoma on its way to the Great Lakes by Thursday.  Our area will be on the northwest side of a rain comma head as severe weather breaks out in the warmer air from Arkansas to the Tennessee Valley.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE MAP: We are firmly in the cold air, but the juicy warm air is located from Texas to the Midwest.  The cold front plus system mentioned above will come together to create the conditions for a potential severe weather outbreak.

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER TRACK RADAR 845 AM: There are already thunderstorms in northwest Arkansas and this is the kind of day when you have the morning activity, the afternoon activity follows in a similar location.  There is an area of showers in the Texas panhandle near the main upper low.  We will be on the northwest edge of this comma head this afternoon and evening.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: You can see the best chance of rain is along and southeast of I-35 as the comma head forms.  Severe thunderstorms are exploding from Arkansas to southeast Missouri.  It will be tough to get out of the 40s today in KC, especially if it rains.

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WEDNESDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: It looks like Arkansas is the bulls eye.  The details of the severe weather will depend on any left over boundaries from the morning thunderstorms and placement of the surface low, a complex pattern.

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We just finished today, now lets get to Thursday, woosh!

THURSDAY MORNING: This will be a calmer day, but during the morning a frost/freeze is likely across Nebraska and the Dakotas.  We will see lows 34-38 and could see some frost.  It will depend on the timing of the clearing and lessening of the wind.  You can see the next system already taking shape in the Rockies.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY:  The second system to track is spreading rain and a few non-severe thunderstorms across Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri, mostly north of I-70.  This is not a strong storm, but we should see some rain from this system, especially Thursday night and early Friday

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THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: This a calmer and cool day, but there is a marginal severe weather risk from Michigan to the gulf coast as the weakening system from today moves away.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY:  This is when the third and biggest storm affects the middle of the USA.  It will not really get its act together until Friday night as it drops into the southwest USA.  It will move slowly east Saturday and eject quickly towards the Great Lakes Sunday.  An unseasonably cold air mass will be in place across the northern and central Plains and a very warm and humid air mass will be in place from the southern Plains to southeast USA.  This will set up a large area of over running precipitation from Texas/Oklahoma to the southern Midwest.  Very heavy rain and flash flooding are likely along with severe weather.  We will most likely be located in an area where we will see periods of rain, heavy at times, with perhaps a few thunderstorms.  We could see some flooding as well.  Temperatures this weekend around here will be in the 30s and 40s.  A snowstorm is possible in Colorado, western Kansas, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to western Nebraska.  The winter wheat crop out there has been on a wild ride with drought, wind , fires, heavy rain and now snow.  The snow may be a good thing to protect the wheat from freeze, but it is also tall, so all kinds of questions with the wheat.  If we were going to have a freeze it would be Monday morning, but wind and clouds may help out.

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FRIDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK: This is the current day 3 severe weather risk, but it may wait until Friday night and Saturday to really get going.  But, it gives you an idea of what we are dealing with.

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This is about as active and crazy as it gets and we will have updates tomorrow on the next two storm systems,

Have a great day, rest of your week and weekend.

Jeff

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