Good evening bloggers,
A very strong storm system is taking direct aim on Kansas City. The maximum amounts, that some of our computer models have been predicting, may actually happen in a few spots. The latest Adonis model, here at KSHB-TV just came out with 14 to 18 inches of snow across the KC Metro area. These extremely high totals will only be reached if thunderstorms form with snow in them and this is now likely going to happen between 9 AM and 2 PM Thursday.
I am on in a few minutes…..Here is my updated forecast map I am going with on the 10 PM newscast.
Have a good night. Please watch and let me know what you think.
Gary
Got my Advil and beer ready to help with the sore back from shoveling snow in the driveway all day.
First?
Please, dear God, make it so!
First!
Sorry networkguy….that was close
The new GFS is very good.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042″
Let it snow. Let it snow!
Wow!!! That is a bunch of snow for KC. I am surprised Gary changed his forecast. They have said all along that this storm was going to be unusual. 12+” is definitely unusual.
As Family Guy characters say. WWWWHHHHHHAAAATTTT!
I plan to run around in circles screaming during the height of the storm, but don’t any of you panic! Awesome!
What does the dewpoint need to be to start snowing?
Awwww yeeeah
TWC has moved their amounts down to 8-12 so seems to jive.
Haha they keep changing the map the show every 10 minutes, seriously. They have no idea what to think at this point.
haha, doesn’t matter to me. I already told my boss I’m staying at home, so working on a good hangover as we speak
No, thats an old map on TWC…click at the Q Storm link at the top of their page and see the newer map that has us down for 12-18 inches
SWEET!!!! AWESOME!!!!FANTASTIC!!!!!MAJESTIC!!!WONDERFUL!!!
I thing that about sums it up!
If that materializes it would be the biggest snowstorm to directly impact the city in a very long time.
WTC is even trumphing this. It has us inside a 12-18 foot area.
Jeebus 12 to 18 feet eh?
Who is WTC?
I believe TWC, The Weather Channel
The Weather Channel actually had weather on until NBC bought it. Now it’s a bunch of propaganda and shows that try to tell me how to live my life. I can’t remember which came first. MTV stopped playing music or TWC stopped reporting on actual weather consistently. Let’s name this storm. C’mon, let’s come up with a good name, lol.
LOL, my bad, those idiots named it Storm Q. I guess they’re referring to the Star Trek character. Can it get any more embarrassing?
Precip and storms blowing up in West Texas. “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php”
Say it with me!
KAAAAABOOOOOOOOMMMM!!! And they all laughed at me when I brought home a big snow blower from Nebraska 2 years ago….
Pawh!
POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOF!
Bring it on!
School closing list is growing! And KU, at this moment, is ahead….
OSU clawed back in the game. OT!
Start the “POOF” on the Monday storm and we’ll add another 10″ on this monster!
Monday storm?? You mean we have to go through this AGAIN?!!!
Yee ha! Can’t wait for my aging back to try to shovel 10 to 15 inches of snow, it would be a personal best for my 47 years if I survive it.
Don’t even try. Remember – we have the Snow Army of young children armed with shovels!
Most of the kids in my neighborhood seem to be 6 years old or less…
Buy a snow blower. Best investment I ever made for my busted back after the 9 inch snow in feb of 2004!
Sorry, I mean TWC has us in a 12-18 inch zone
Just saw weather channel has 3 people covering storm in Missouri. I think Siedel is in KC, not sure where where the other 2 are. Springfield and somewhere else probably.
anyone know about next weeks storm? Gary and the team already have a 60% chance of it occurring…thats pretty high this far out? Is it suppose to be big by any means?
Hey guys, if you havent already..go to my fb page my clicking on my name on the blog and like my page. You can join the conversations and see all my forecast thoughts there. You can also keep up with all my storm chasing this spring and also while I am out chasing this snow storm tomorrow. You can also go to “http://www.facebook.com/jacobhoneycuttwx”
LoL…mega storm coming tomorrow and already asking about the next one.
haha dont get me wrong…Im so pumped for tomorrows storm, just wondering how much damage the next one will do as well…Gary and the LRC really nailed this one, he predicted it to come around the 20th…
Precip and storms blowing up in West Texas. “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php”
That forecast is everything plus more!!! Thanks for giving us the info early . Gary your blog is pretty much a big deal!
Wow, the last time they cancelled jccc the night before was back in Dec ’07..we were supposed to have an ice storm but it was a few degrees too warm at the surface so we ended up with only wet roads. I think the northland still got hammered though.
We did. Roads were fine, but trees were heavily laden with ice. It was even worse up around St. Joseph.
Yeah, unusual for KU to announce campus closed the night before too. This is going to be a bad ass storm.
Its a snowicane!
Where is foodl at and his doubts on accumulations?
Any idea when the NWS will be updating their snow predictions?
3am maybe? They seem to always be behind.
Generally the Weather Service waits until all of the guidance or all the model are completely in before issuing their forecasts. During high end events they sometimes adjust more frequently, which may be coming shortly.
Lmao @ olathematt, you know he’ll come on here saying the dry slot is going to get us! Btw what happened to that kumke kid?
I think he is still around, if this doesnt bring him out then I dont know what would.
Im hoping for some thundersnow tomorrow! Question, this may be stupid, but will there be lighting with the thundersnow?
where there is thunder there is always lightening dude. That’s what causes the thunder.
I think this is possible – there’s a video on YouTube of a guy filming hard snow and you see a flash and hear a loud clap of thunder
Thunder = sound generated by the lightning strike.
wow look at the radar echos increasing to our southwest and west. Is that reaching the ground?? Wonder if the snow will start earlier after all.
Gary just said it will. Light between 2-7, then moderate, then PUH-POW!
Sticks, are you high right now?
No, slightly hammered though. Just watched the forecast. He said snow would start around 2-4, they would be on at 4 and it would start picking up around 6-7.
What does the dewpoint need to be before snow can start falling?
You can’t have thunder without lightning …
On average 1-3 people die every year from a lightning strike during thunder snow
I’m glad to see others are totally engrossed and can’t leave the blog alone! I think I’m going to get to do my happy snow dance! My town has been added into the highest snow amounts! I’m northeast around 100 miles! Dreams do cone true! And yes there can be lightening during thundersnow! It’s incredible when it happens!!!!
Is the snow in Emporia and Garnett going to make it to KC in the next 4 hours or less?
Gary, for your sake, I hope you’re close on these totals,; otherwise the trolls will be on you like stink on…
Dear Storm,
I have a nice fire lit,some Barry White playing. And some Brown Sugar,Cinnamon Kettle Corn waiting for ya. Cmon by.
Yep, and KU doesn’t close easily even in the usual way.
His predictions are close to what several other sources seem to be saying now also.
Governor declared state of emergency in all KS counties…all state universities and institutions closed tomorrow.
Hey Gary, part of your Thursday forecast still shows 5-10 inches, fyi.
Yes
Can we just say, this blog has been a blast over the past two-three days. Props to Gary and all the bloggers for making this whole process interesting. And now…bring in the snow!
A foot of snow does nobody any good except screw up the economy.
The economy is already screwed up!
No work tomorrow…sit back and watch a megasnowstorm…works for me.
Wow ! 10-15 inches of snow for the KC area. I hope all of our roofs can withstand the weight of all that snow !
Yes!! And so nice to know beforehand, not having to get up at three just in case they didn’t cancel.
Yeah, I hate it when they do that.
right, the the school people get up, see some sleet on the ground and yell, wtf.
Mabye we can add another 5 inches with the storm on Monday..make it a 5 day total of 15-20 inches. Heh heh
Whoah, KU wins by one point in double overtime.
I think my boss would blow a valve or two if we had back to back snow days on thurs-fri, and then Monday too. It would be a first.
Meanwhile it’s a crisp starry night. They all have no clue, so quit guessing. 4-6 south of town, oops 4 with sleet. 6-10 at the airport, we think so, let’s go with the apocalypse…..if we get thunderstorms. The only thing missing from this debacle is the embarrassing Weather Channel naming the storm something stupid like the previous ratings driven stupidity.
This has to be a record, over 700 comments so far today. Can we get to 800 before midnight?
Winter storm Q*bert!?
Perhaps I will do what I did back in the 70′s. Get my “church shoes” out, grab my buddies and go goolying behind cars. For those under 45, to goolie is to run behing cars, grab the bumper and ski behind it until you hit a dry spot and do a face plant on the pavement. worst was grabbing a VW Beetle and getting the spot where the tail pipe was. probably get thrown in the slammer for doing that today.
The Weather Channel has KC in the 18-24 zone. WOW!
I see 10-15 according to the main Q headline.
12-16 here said it 4 days ago. but i need to go to bed to go work thursday
What’s the dew point have to be for snow to make it to the ground?
They do?…
Just saw it on the map.
Is that Weather Channel forecast of 18″-24″ for real?
Nothing else they do is, so lets go with No. LOL, Accuweather is 2-4 in OP, 3-6 in KC and 4-8 in St.Jo
Oh for gods sake, give it a rest. Accuweather is about as far from accurate as you can get. They were calling for 2 inches overnight for gods sake. This is going to be a big storm, but not as big as TWC is blowing it up as. I’d say Clay county area might get the higher amounts they are talking about, everywhere else lower.
I call TWC hype on 18-24. That’s so razor close, anything east of State line is in 6-12.
Correct, Storm QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ, are we going to die, tune in after the commercial and find out. I think they learned that from KCTV 5.
No, TWC has KC in the 12-18 zone, not the 18-24 zone.
I’m new to this. I take it TWC is dramatic?
Whoa, radar returns are looking good across west Texas. Imagine that convection is going to have a whole lot to do with our snow tomorrow morning-midday. There’s a whole lot of moisture out there…
Quasimodo perhaps
I know everyone is worried about this storm but I saw how gary uprgaded the chance for next monday and tuesday…hows that looking?
It looks like we’ll be finding our own Nemo after all. So does MODOT provide excused absence notes for me to get off work, or do we just print out the page that says I’m helping them out by staying at home? Also the 7-Day still has 40 for the high on Sunday. I presume it will be changed to something a lot lower once the total snowfall amount is revealed?
I was thinking the same thing regarding the forecasted highs in the extended. If we end up with a broad snowfield, it’s going to have an effect on temps around here.
Just checked my local forecast via the Topeka NWS page and see they’ve updated their totals in the short term forecast at some point this evening. Now it’s 1-2 overnight, 7-11 new snow tomorrow, 1-2 new snow Thursday night, providing a storm total of 9-15 inches for my area 20 miles SW of Lawrence. We’ll see, but I’ve yet to see much evidence of anybody blinking on the storm, if anything, they’re upping the expected amounts. That’s odd (or “unusual”) in my book. Usually by now there’s some indication in the data that gives a few reason to start reining in expectations.
It’s interesting to scroll down the weather blog page and see the progression of models from 2 days ago till now!
This storm is going to be awesome to watch during the day! I’m wishing everyone safe travels too, it’s going to be messy.
EVERYONE SAY IT WITH ME ONE LAST TIME!!!
ok where are you all seeing the map on TWC that shows the 18-24 inches? I cant find it..
It said 12-18, not 18-24
this is the kind of storm one just dreams happens at least once while living in KC.
POOF!
Is that area of storms/precip heading into the OK panhandle the comma head, or will that materialize as the low itself gets closer?
I don’t think so. The west TX/TX panhandle is just a piece of the storm ejecting out ahead into the Plains. I think the circulation is visible on the Albuquerque, NM radar. South of there is clear rotating center of circulation on the radar.
No comments in the last 20 mins?!? Did this thing go poof?
apparently everyone is nestled safely in bed
While visions of sugar-plums danced in their heads
Gary i work for kdot. An just sitting here waiting for the snow to start flying. What time would u expect to see the first flakes flying? ?
They don’t know. It was supposed to 12 on, then 3-6 AM. if you’re holding your breath, I’d get a good gulp in first.
Come on people! Wake up.
There’s a lot of smaller, more scattered returns quickly forming across central OK now also and faint returns streaming up across central and north TX. The gulf is wide open, plenty of moisture coming in to put the bum’s rush on this stubborn dry air filtering in from the east- yet another band of radar returns has passed by here without even a flake as far as I could tell.
Accuweather just took it from 2-4 in OP to 1-3. Interesting trend, and what is making it toward here is breaking apart.
Still awake here in between tonganoxie and mclouth ks….anxiously awaiting the first snow flakes! The anticipation is killing me! Can’t wait to get out and play in the snow with my kids!!
The forecast will change in 5 hours. The reality is that, nobody really knows. This is such a powerful and autonomous system that it could move one way or another at the blink of an eye.
Wow…IPC has changed their forecast to 2-4 inches for the metro…earlier today, they had it at 6-8 inches…what the heck happened?
Those people are not based in local area so they usually adjust down right before the storm bac they can sa the storm is more powerfu
I spoke too soon, we have some very light snow falling now. Tongie/McLouth line.
Not sure where you guys are getting these updated lower totals, but I’m not seeing that anywhere I look.
Getting pellets near downtown OP. Just started.
radar is blowing up big time in southern KS
Which radar would you all recommend using? Because TWC’s radar is horrid. Just horrid.
“http://www.my-cast.com/#64056,+MO”
I love this radar
Very nice.
By the way, snow pellets in western Lenexa as well…
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge12_2013022112f024.gif”
updated from the HPC, chance of seeing atleast 12″ of snow
chill guys,we are in for a lot of SNOW
“http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge18_2013022112f024.gif”
chance of atleast 18″
Starting to lightly snow here in downtown KC @ Truman Medical Center.
No bread at the local walmart…I just had to go in at 1AM to survey the damage…lol..
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151431405214507&set=a.128624629506.102404.517589506&type=1&theater
Very first flakes in south Brookside at 1:35. I was actually outside to 1) get my snow measuring stick (which I made for the Christmas blizzard) and put in out in the backyard, and 2) get the snow shovel and bring it to a handy spot. I looked up at the bright street light, nothing. Came inside, locked doors, etc., looked back up at same light, flakes were just beginning.
off and on ice chunks falling here in Olathe ..not even sure what to call it lol
No snow here yet (I-29 & 64th).
Gonna take a 3or4 hour nap… lol
lol me too kcchamps
No snow in east Independence, MO. I see some grapple like stuff on the cars and deck from earlier. I’ll never get back to sleep now.
So is this thing still on track?
Yes, The GFS and NAM models confirm our forecast. Brett Anthony is sticking with it. We are going to have one of the biggest snowstorms we have ever experienced. I will start a new blog soon.
Awesome!
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yesloo
network guy hit loop…look at this blob heading our way!
New GFS! Looking Good!!
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048″
Gary, What do you think about thundersnow?
Cant believe your up at 4am gary! Appreciate all the hard work you do….also how do u think the next storm showing up monday is gonna be?
Good luck to all who are going in to work today
For all the times we have been in a similar set up…only with rain…and said on this blog…IF ONLY it were cold enough and this amount of moisture would translate into snow…well it looks like we finally get to see the end result of that scenario..I hope it’s epic.
Bring it!
wow look at the yellows and even bright oranges in the radar creeping toward us! Must be some thundersnow!
cool
It’s gettin’ really close to Lawrence now…1-2 inch rates. Bring on the thundersnow!
I go to University of Missouri Kansas City and it got canceled…never happens this early….
Waiting…waiting…:-) For whomever was asking about a good source for radar, Intellicast has a great one that is interactive. It shows you what is going on at your house if you zoom in enough.
And looking at said radar, the pink(sleet) is popping up here and there towards KC from the south.
First flakes now near downtown OP, at nearly 6 am on the dot. Let the fun begin!