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Wide Spread Freeze Warnings, The Tropics, & A Look Into The Developing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:  HARD FREEZE WARNING

  • Today: Windy and cold with northwest winds 10-25 mph and gusty. High: 43° with a mostly cloudy sky
  • Tonight:  Becoming clear and cold. A freeze is likely. Low:  28°
  • Saturday:  Mostly sunny and cool. High: 48°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and warmer. High:  60°

National Weather Discussion:

Wide spread freeze warnings are in effect for tonight. These stretch from southeast Minnesota down into Texas.  The dark purple area shows the hard freeze warning:

Screen Shot 2017-10-27 at 8.43.54 AM

Other than these freeze warnings the weather pattern is fairly quiet nationwide. Yesterday, we discussed the LRC and the developing weather pattern.  It continues to evolve. One of the influences on the pattern is the Arctic Oscillation.  Take a look at the latest index:

1

The AO was forecast to dip deeper into negative territory and as you can see it has not happened yet. Look at the top graph.  There is a dip that will likely happen to near or just below neutral early next week, but then it is forecast to go positive.  When the index dips deeper into negative territory it will be an influence on the pattern that would lead to an increased chance of Arctic blasts. But, if the index stays positive the influence is more in the warmer direction.  As the overall LRC sets up we will be able to know better when these indexes will be more or less favorable to push us into a colder or warmer winter pattern. We just need another three to four weeks to experience what this weather pattern is capable of doing.

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The tropics:

Look at the orange X. That X is now forecast to become a tropical system with a 60% chance of it becoming a named storm.  Let’s track this feature over the weekend as well. If it forms it may clip parts of Florida as it gets picked up in the flow.

Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Gary

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