Good morning bloggers,
This weather pattern goes on day after day, week after week, month after month. Who is ready for something different to start happening? I know I am big time!
September is one of the wettest months, on average, each year. We usually have a lot of moisture available in the form of high dew points. Storm systems are usually still very weak but they begin shifting farther south during this ninth month of the year and this provides the potential for very heavy rainfall in the form of slow moving thunderstorms. These things are not happening this year as we continue to be in the same pattern that set up last fall. Something different is likely beginning to evolve, but this will be a slow process and it will really kick in by the end of the month into November. At this moment I know one thing…This weather pattern has been a very, very bad one for us weather enthusiasts and hobbyists. We have no idea if next year’s weather pattern will be even more frustrating, or hopefully much more exciting. I would lean in the direction of it can’t get worse than this one. It was fun watching Isaac turn our way and produce some drought relieving rain twelve to thirteen days ago, but besides that one big event it has been back to the same results. And, this next system coming our way tomorrow will be no different. We believe it will rain tomorrow, but not much.
New data:
The first set of data coming in this morning is already different on the timing and rainfall amounts for our area. The NAM model has almost no rain, one band of thick clouds early in the day and then it moves out of here by the end of Thursday.
Pike’s Peak is 31 degrees with snow this morning! Yay! Now, we will be working on the chance of rain in our forecast for Thursday morning on 41 Action News.
Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great Wednesday and watch 41 Action News for an in-depth weather-cast today and tonight.
Gary
I’m with you Gary, its hard to imagine, that the next LRC could be any worse. Though I think things have changed somewhat with 2 rain producing systems last week outside of Issac and hopefully one tomorrow. During the summer, we would go weeks with nothing!
The 2013 Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a mild, dry winter and a cool, dry summer. There you have it, the new LRC. See, Gary, that wasn’t so tough.
Sure hope they’re wrong on the dry part.
If it is not snowing in the KC area, no one cares about the snowing in Pike’s Peak.
Gary,
I know you were gone for the exceptionally heavy rainfall in August 31-September 1st and I never saw you post about how that fit into your cycle theory.
What events came about 45-90-135 days prior to the August 31st event, that fit in your cycle theory? If I remember right, you said the cycle was around 45 days this year, so I was thinking there must have been some event around, say April 15, June 1st and July 15th that would match up, but haven’t been able to find one.
Jerry,
I was here for the very heavy Isaac rain. It fit the cycle amazingly. Jeff Penner, earlier that week, used the LRC to out forecast the NHC by saying it would go left of the track and head our way. It’s funny how you bring up July 15th. July 15th and Isaac, when it was moving into Missouri, are amazingly similar. Check it out. The LRC actually did help us. If we knew there was going to be a hurricane, then we know where it will likely track. This is my point. And, we made a very accurate prediction.
Gary
Where did the 3″-6″ of rain that fell on August 31st>September 1st fall back on July 15th?
Jerry,
We have discussed this about 100 times or more. If the exact same thing happened every single time through the LRC, then it would be so easy to forecast. The pattern was the same. And, one cycle had a hurricane caught in the flow while the previous cycle just had a tropical wave moving west into Texas.
Gary , You are incorrect…The KFC( Aug.26 @ 11:21am)indicated Isaac would head are direction…The KFC is a GREAT tool for long-range forecasting…It keeps “all” of its eggs in one BUCKET…You,and,your weather team, should invest with KFC…I will keep you aBREAST of any other events,e.i.,hurricanes,tornadoes,fires,earthquakes,etc… Signed , Kevin; Pres.of KFC. Have a good 1
I love the grilled chicken at KFC. It is high in sodium, but better for you with less fat.
Don,t get cute…You know what I,m talking about…
I just have one question….how long did the drought last back in the dust bowl days in the late 30′s? We could possibly see this same pattern for the next 2-3 years.
Which brings up the LRC. Could there be an annual version? Say we are in a 74-75 year pattern. I know…far fetched but I predict another super mild winter and dry spring.
Didn’t the NAM do the exact same thing with the similar system last week? Is there a daily bias with the model? The warm 00Z run says more rain, the cold 12Z run shows less?
Gabe,
Yes it did. But, this is not lining up well for us to get any significant rain.
I have a hard time being able to rationalize the correlation of tropical systems into a theory that states the pattern was supposedly set during a previous hurricane season. There is plenty of evidence to suggest there is no year-to-year relatability to hurricane seasons. To have Isaac ‘match up’ with another tropical wave is serendipitous at best…especially in a year with so many other tropical systems you would have to correlate in order to have scientific consistency; if you are unable to do that as well then it is dishonest to claim a victory for Isaac and the LRC.
On another note the pattern has changed greatly along the east coast over the past couple weeks…Isaac is the case in point. Its troughy now, Isaac would never have made it west of FLA if this current pattern were in place then.
Weather has been beautiful in NC recently, looking forward to a wet winter here! I hope the expected active southern stream phases up enough to get the KC area some good snow this winter.
John,
The LRC did not predict the storm but did help Gary determine the path the storm took. I think that is where a lot of confusion comes with the LRC people misunderstand the cycle to mean that exactly the same thing will happen. That is not the case, what the cycle indicates relates to what the atmosphere in general (in a macro fashion) does and then taking into account other variables helps predict the weather we experience.
John
For the record, I vote for KFC grilled chicken too. Unfortunately, there’s not a KFC nearby, actually maybe that’s fortunate.
Maybe your most outrageous claim yet. Never did your team say it would track west because of the LRC. They laid out the possible track, which included the possibility of being west or east of KC. It was a nowcast situation at best as they, and everyone else, watched it veer to the west side of the track cone. Your claims are not true at all.
To claim the hurricane remnants fit the LRC “amazingly” is beyond words. So you are now making the claim you can predict hurricane tracks with theLRC. Please give us the track of Nadine now then.
stans,
He did not say that at all – the LRC helped predict the track the remnant of the storm took when it passed by us. And that is accurate.
John
JohnP, I never said Gary used the LRC to predict the storm…I said its difficult to correlate the storm to the LRC-that includes track. Now if he was able to do so with every tropical entity then I would not have made the comment. And by the way, the euro had the storm going west of consensus almost the whole duration, so the western track forecast was most certainly not unique to those residing at KSHB or to those who utilize the LRC.
Stans, Nadine has a rather predictable track so this would not be the storm to question. I expect it to graze the azores area eventually.
The CPC released their temperature outlook and it is looking CHILLY for the eastern 2/3rds of the country for the rest of the month.
Gary:
Come on, you are getting delusional if you guys think you had a clue through the LRC that Issac was going to deliver rain. Up to 6 hours before it started raining you guys gave it very little chance of getting here and it would dump less than an inch of rain. I enjoy your blog, and the LRC model you use, however, you guys are starting to reach on saying it recognized this or predicted that. I rarely comment but this is getting a little out of hand in your team trying to justify yourself.
Shoedog,
It is true that we didn’t know we would get more than an inch of rain from Issac. But, we did say it was coming our way and it would rain from the system by using the LRC. While I was in Cape Cod, Jeff Penner and I went over the July version of the LRC and confidently used that knowledge. Jeff strongly stated on the air that Isaac would go left of the Hurricane Center’s projected path and he went for the rain.
Gary
Looks like this front is going to come through at the wrong time of day. So much for HPC’s forecast of 0.50″-1.00″ of rain.
I’m sorry, there is no way that Isaac fit into any weather cycle let alone the LRC cycle. Isaac’s track went from going along the east coast of Florida to going through the west part of Louisiana. The cyclone didn’t follow one model during its entire lifespan. We just happen to get lucky and have the cyclone spin overtop the KC metro area. If we hadnt have gotten the 5″-7″ associated with Isaac, we’d be talking about rivaling the driest year in history! As it is, we’re still in the running for Top 5 driest year’s in the history of KC according to NOAA.
Again I think you misunderstand what Gery is stating here. The LRC helped predict the path not the creation of the storm. The claim is not that the LRC figured out that Issac would cause the needed rain but that the pattern help predict its path and it did.
John
Any weather model let alone the LRC** That’s what I meant to say, sorry about that.