Good morning bloggers,
We hope you had a great Easter weekend. The weather is rather calm as we wake up this Monday morning. The risk of stronger thunderstorms may arrive this week, but there are still many questions. Let’s take a look at this weeks set ups. But, first todays weather time-line in Kansas City:
- Now through 5 PM: Mostly sunny with no chance of rain today. East to southeast winds, rather light, at 5-10 mph. High: 72°
- Tonight: A few clouds and no chance of rain. Light southeast winds 5-10 mph. Low: 55°
- Tuesday: Dry with just a slight chance of evening thunderstorms, most likely north near the Iowa border. High: 79°
The weather pattern continues to be fascinating and there is chatter out there this week about severe weather risks. Which severe weather risk is the strongest? Let’s take a look.
As you can see above on the National Weather Service watch and warning map, it is a rather quiet Monday across the nation. The weather will be getting a bit more active across the United States, but which storm is the most impressive?
This week’s risks:
The biggest severe weather risk and potential outbreak of severe weather appears it will be setting up on Saturday over the Tennessee Valley
There are other risks that are showing up, but seemingly not as impressive as Saturdays
This map above shows a surface low developing Tuesday evening back near Goodland, KS. A warm front is forecast to strengthen from this low extending east into southern Iowa. The NAM model, shown above, does not fire up thunderstorms until around midnight. Other models fire up the thunderstorms in northern Missouri. Let’s see how today’s models come in.
By Wednesday, as you can see below, the models have varying solutions and this model run that came in overnight again shows the NAM model with a surface low forecast to be located over southeastern Iowa. If this is at all correct, the severe weather risk would be shifted north and east into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. This, however, is a different set up at the surface than other models have been showing.
Again, if this NAM model is at all correct Kansas City would not have much of risk at all Wednesday, but I am not convinced of this solution at this moment. The severe weather risk from the SPC has been farther west due to the other models slower solutions.
The most impressive severe weather risk:
A major spring storm is forecast to move out of the southern Rocky Mountain states and intensify as it approaches Tennessee and the Mississippi River Valley early this weekend. A strong surface low is forecast to intensify over Arkansas by Saturday. This looks more organized and much more impressive than the earlier week set ups. This is also entering our forecast spring hot spot for this year that we issued in early March:
As you can see, this Saturday storm severe weather set up is falling right into place over the forecast hot spot that Weather2020 issued almost two months ago. Let’s see how the models show up today, but storm chasers should be paying close attention to this one.
Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.