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Where Are We Headed In The Next Three Weeks?

Good morning bloggers, IT’S BLACK FRIDAY!

We hope everyone had a safe Thanksgiving.  Our team at 41 Action News presented the Plaza Lighting, the 88th annual, last night on television and live in front of a huge audience.  I did get to meet Alex Smith last night. Here is a picture:

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We are purple because of the lights that were flashing around us. Look at that crowd behind us, as it went all the way as far as you could see.  Thank you for celebrating this tradition with us. The weather could not be better as there was literally no wind for the entire event.

The Arctic Oscillation:

Screen Shot 2017-11-24 at 7.40.57 AM

The AO dipped to negative 3 a couple of days ago. Now, where is it going to go from here? I like the trend of negative.  We must see where it actually goes, and not what the computer models show, as these computer models are heavily flawed. If you have been paying close attention, the models on one run suddenly show some exciting times ahead for us weather enthusiasts, but then the next model run shows nothing. What we are experiencing here are some models showing an AO positive run, some showing an AO neutral run, and then some showing an AO negative run. Take a look at the last two model runs for the mid-week storm system as an example:

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It is a somewhat subtle difference. Can you see it? One model has a storm that would produce significant precipitation near KC Tuesday night-Wednesday, and the other model has it all stretched out.  One model is functional on this storm system and the ones that followed, and then the next model comes out with no functional storm systems at all. Could it just be this cycle that is not being functional, or will it turn the corner and suddenly be stormy?  It may depend on these other influencing factors such as La Niña, the AO, the NAO, and other factors. One model run may be that AO positive run that you see on the AO graph above, and then one run may come in with that deep AO negative run.  We are learning more about this pattern right now.

Our winter forecast comes out Monday night. We will have a big discussion then. For now, we hope you have a great Friday. 74 degrees would break a record high here in KC today. It will be windy.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your Friday reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com, click on the blog, and join in on the conversation if you would like.

 

Gary

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