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When Will This Pattern Shift Into Stormier & Colder?

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny. High: 54°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy with a shower or two possible.  High:  64°

So, how is everyone doing? Are you making it through this “panic period”?  I warned you all, and in reading through the comments there are those that look at every computer model and when something exciting shows up, then a few of you seem to get so excited, then when it goes away and it looks like it will be a boring winter based on one computer model, many of you then jump on that solution.  We have something special in the LRC and the cycling pattern. We know something very important. We know that the likely first day of this pattern was around October 6th or 7th. And, those first 17 to 20 days of this cycling weather pattern featured storms and troughs swinging inland over the west coast of the United States, dipping into the southern Rocky Mountains and plains before weakening over an eastern United States ridge. This is what we know. We know that this will come back. We just don’t know the cycle length of the pattern yet. It is most likely in the 44 to 50 day range, but that isn’t etched in stone yet either. If my assumption of this cycle is correct, then it is about to get exciting right after Thanksgiving for around a 17 to 20 day stretch of days.

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How the 17 to 20 day stretch of excitement in the pattern performs will go a long way to helping us narrow in on the low end total, or narrow in on the high end total in the projection I made two nights ago on 41 Action News.

Today’s Weather Pattern:

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There is a trough swinging across the west coast of North America today.  This will move east and warm the plains up on Friday before a cold front moves through by Saturday.

Where Does This Storm Track?

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This second map above shows the 500 mb flow valid this Sunday, as we move into Thanksgiving week. There are still many uncertainties for next week, but it appears the more likely week for the huge shift into those 17 to 20 days of excitement is about to begin.  I can see and sense it happening, and it could happen much faster, so let’s keep paying attention. A lot of you have been reading the blog for a long time, many years, so you know if I get excited about this I will let you know. I have yet to get excited by looking at these models, as I have not been anticipating this change until around ten days from right now.

The storm that swings across the west coast will then move out over southeastern Canada by Saturday night and Sunday:

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This maps shows the storm over southeastern Canada on Sunday when the Chiefs will be kicking off to the New York Giants, or vice versa. I will be there in New York visiting my brothers family and seeing my Aunt Margy.  It will likely be cold but dry for the game. And, I get a New York experience Saturday night.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to Weather2020.com, click on the blog, and join in the great conversation we are sharing.

Gary

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