Quantcast

What Rain? The Drought Shows It’s Face Today

Good morning bloggers,

I was up and down all night looking in amazement at the radar echoes.  There was never an organized area of rain in our viewing area. Not any organization at all, just scattered very light rain showers.  As of 7 AM KCI Airport has had a grand total of ONE HUNDREDTH of an inch, as in 0.01″.  Ouch!  This storm has been producing tremendous amounts of rain over the deep south, but even though it is tracking right over our viewing area this evening it is leaving us with the lowest rainfall totals possible.  I did not think it would rain under a tenth of an inch. Here is the satellite picture (water vapor enhanced) from 7 AM this morning:

I am just getting started….

A storm may affect us Saturday night and I will go over the details of what the NAM model shows here in a few minutes….

Here is this mornings NAM model.  This first map shows the forecast upper level flow valid Friday evening. Take a look at what has happened to that big storm that left us frustrated today:

As you can see, the series of waves that will carve out the storm are on the back side of the big upper level Rocky Mountains low. It is very suspect and this new NAM model sheared out the wave as it moved our way, and as a result did not even come close to producing any snow anywhere near us. Of course we will keep watching and monitoring this situation, but it is a needle in the haystack type of storm, and there may not even be a needle in there.  So, take a deep breath and we will go over the details on 41 Action News tonight.

Have a great day. It was a frustrating night and morning watching and tracking the lack of rain from this storm. I may have to go back to, “when in a drought, leave it out”.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. If this storm for Saturday night starts trending to becoming more likely I will try to update the blog again this evening, so check back in.

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

45 comments to What Rain? The Drought Shows It’s Face Today

  • frigate

    This is just crazy!!! Sadly, you were right all along on predicting rainfall, from this storm. :-( What are the chances of that second band of rain you mentioned last night on the news for later today???

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=EAX”

    here is the 6z GFS snow map

  • Dobber

    Is there even really a chance of snow this weekend? It’s so hush hush.

  • ChiefsFan

    Kcchamps– how much is it showing? Saturday or Monday

  • hobart

    This is just pathetic.

  • Skylar

    It is really dissapointing, but even if we did get rain I doubt it would’ve helped a lot. Much of the ground is still frozen, there’s no other way we still have snow after all the warm temperatures we’ve been having. All the rain would’ve slid right off the ground except maybe on south facing elevations.

    • Theo

      The ground’s not frozen. Where are you getting your info? The frost line is 6 inches down. An inch of rain would have easily soaked in.

  • .11″ so far in my corner of Lawrence, and while not much it is better than naught, as for sure at this point I’ll take whatever we can get.

  • trinlivco

    why do I even bother to watch weather forcasts. In 50 plus years of hunting in the outdoors thier is one thing I have learned from mother nature. YOU CANNOT predict what she is going to do.
    She has a way of slapping you in the face when you don’t expect it. I am sure some day she will end this god awfull drought with a bang. Hope its soon. TR P.S keep trying Gary overall you do a good job.

    • As you likely know, I and most of us feel your pain this morning. It is frustrating. But, overall we have done quite well in predicting these storm systems. This one through us for a loop. It did rain, but my goodness, one hundredth is ridiculous. And, now the next storm didn’t even show up on the latest NAM model. We still have to pay close attention to the latest trends, but overall it is another dry pattern and start to the year.

  • Kcchamps

    well, the new NAM has no snow at all for us. wonder what the GFS will say?

  • Dobber

    What’s the euro saying?

    • The new GFS did the same thing as the NAM. There is some potential still from Saturday nights storm, and possibly one on Monday night-Tuesday, but they are very similar.

  • LarryA

    NW Lawrence had 0.11″ at 8:30 AM with a light mist/drizzle falling. Looks like that’s all we are going to get.

  • Justin

    The blog seems to have been returned to civility. I wasn’t sure if there was the ability to ban someone, but I guess there is.

    • chopperHD

      yep..finally can enjoy reading all the interesting posts again without being attacked day after day.

  • chopperHD

    Gary,

    Do you still believe we will see a much more active weather pattern the last few weeks of January and first of Feb? I would atleast like to have one good snowfall for the kids.

    Have a good day
    Joe

    • We aren’t predicting January to be active. The active period is due in from the end of January through most of February. So, it is really a few weeks away still. Between now and then something may sneak in.

      So, Joe, there is a very good chance the kids will have two or three smaller snows to play in, and maybe one bigger one if it all comes together next month.

      Gary

  • Curiosity

    Last night at 10 pm Gary made a pretty bold prediction — a storm that is still days away from passing us by will be returning (per the LRC) between April 20 and 25 with the potential to unleash dangerous storms. I like that kind of boldness, and if the prediction holds it will be strong evidence the LRC is real. I’ve already made a note in my calendar to remember that prediction in late April and see how it plays out.

  • R-Dub

    Hey, we’re up to 0.05″ near downtown OP. Time for the urban and small stream flood advisories!

  • sedsinkc

    A few hundredths to a tenth of an inch likely with next round of showers from W side of KC to Lawrence to Topeka in the next hour. Central and E KC might get .01 or .02 more unless the area fills in more. Gotta take what we can get, meager as it is.

  • Wthrlvr

    Yea! More drizzle here in W. Olathe. But, like everyone has said, it’s better than nothing. Can’t wait for the day we have training t-storms over us. My favorite! Also wanted to give my input that I am so thankful these last few days to read the blog without the nastiness. Really appreciate it! Janet

  • sedsinkc

    BTW Gary, in your blog header the word is “its”, not “it’s”. This is a pet peeve that goes back to my days editing the white papers of paralegals at a major KC law firm. One guy in particular, no matter how many times I corrected his usage, he would just repeat the mistake again and again in later papers. Sometimes I wanted to bang his head into a wall while getting my point across. “Its” is the possessive form of it, like “hers” is the possessive of “her.” The word “it’s” is ONLY used as a contraction for the words “it is.”

    • yewtrees

      Sed. It also drives me crazy when someone cannot distinguish between “its” and “it’s”. And also between “there’ and “their”!!!

  • My slice of Lawrence has now crawled up to .24″ and it looks like more is on the way. Also appears that it falling slow enough that quite a bit will go into the soil profile instead of to the curb.

  • gwh64063

    The Topeka NWS radar (TWX) storm total loop indicates more rainfall across Topeka, Lawrence and KC than does our own Doppler, EAX, especially given the small area of moderate to light rain that just moved through. The loop timeframes of both radar sites start at about the same time, namely midnight last night. I wonder why EAX is not picking up the rain?

  • R-Dub

    The Topeka radar beam, by the time it gets to the KC metro area, is far up in the clouds, so it is recording precip that fell in the clouds but did not make it to the ground.

  • RickMckc

    Just curious if any areas to our south and west got the predicted 5″? I checked rainfall at two stations in East Texas (where my wife is from) and they had 1.0 and 1.5 each which is a lot less than they were expecting.

  • mowermike

    Rick,

    I just looked at a map of observed precip. for the last 2 days and parts of eastern Texas did show close to 3.75 inches. The real heavy amounts(5″+) was in Louisiana.

    Here locally. Olathe is up to .15 inches.

    It does appear on radar down in NE Oklahoma that the storm may be trying to organize a batch of rain for us later today. Radar returns are increasing in this area.

  • mowermike

    Don’t give up yet, this dog is still hunting.

    Nice area of rain and t-storms forming in NE Oklahoma, should ride up our way. Let’s hope it holds together.

    • yewtrees

      It will fall apart as it approaches KC, just like this morning.

    • sedsinkc

      I agree, Mike. Last hour’s RAP model keeps a chance of some rain near KC until around 8 or 9 p.m. tonight. Pleasant Hill radar keeps showing more echoes moving up from the south and southeast. So at least there’s a chance for some more rain, though it will be showery.

  • mowermike

    Come on Yewtrees, let’s try to be positive….maybe you’re right, but I think we have a good chance of seeing additional rainfall and some thunder. I’m hoping at least.

    Our moisture in the soil is rather good right now, driving around this morning noticed a lot of puddles in the open construction sites. The moisture we received all the way back on the 14th of Dec., the 19th of Dec. froze into the soil. With the recent warmth, the frost line is melting a bit and the moisture is rising to the soil top. So, with today’s moisture and the what remains in the soil, cold air will be welcomed. Freeze it back in place.

    I was still frozen solid this morning on my N and E facing.

    • yewtrees

      How can we stay positive when a “chance of precipitation is 30% and new precipitation amounts is less than a tenth of an inch” this evening according to NWS. Enough dissapointing today!

  • This part of Lawrence has now reached the .36″ mark. What a treat it is to be in the sweet spot for a change. And as I type this the cloud deck has lowered and darkened considerably.

  • Theo

    All wishcasters, as usual, just find the model that says it’s going to snow and snow the most, then post it on here and just BELIEVE!!!!!!!!! That’s a real weather discussion!

    Severe weather freaks, I wouldn’t get too fired up about these repeating cycles. There won’t be any more moisture with them this spring.

  • Skylar

    I’m getting some daily heavy rain at my house right now. If that stuff farther south can make it up here then a few tenths of an inch across the area seems pretty reasonable. The models from this morning had been showing another wave coming in this evening, anyways.

  • sedsinkc

    Latest GFS brings a little light snow to the SE side of KC metro between 9 pm Saturday and 3 am Sunday, but latest NAM keeps the precip well to our southeast. I think the NAM is more believable. Both models suggest a rain(?) to mix to snow scenario for St. Louis Sat night-Sun mornin, however. Amt. of precip is still uncertain.

  • Twistersis

    Okay, guys, I just ran out in the driving rain to find 1.5″ in the rain gauge. I will admit to not having looked at the cheap and unscientific gauge in a couple of weeks, but I do know that it’s been raining all day in eastern Shawnee. So, maybe not THAT much rain has fallen but it’s rain! YES!