What Is This Pattern We Are Moving Into?

Good morning bloggers,

Yesterday we looked into how three models all had a storm system for next Wednesday. And, I suggested that we should see if it still is showing up in the next few days. Well, it is no longer there and that was fast.  Today, we look at the past four years on November 1st to show the major differences in patterns from year to year.  A unique pattern continues to evolve right above us, but what is it?

Screen Shot 2017-11-03 at 7.25.51 AM

The upper left map shows the 500 mb flow from a couple of days ago, and the other maps show the flow on the same date from the previous three years.  The patterns are quite obviously very different.  According to the LRC the pattern sets up between October 1st and November 30th. We are just barely half way through this process. This is why we wait to issue our winter forecast as we are still learning more, a lot more.

Today’s weather pattern:


This mornings surface map shows a cold front moving into the northeastern United States and it trails southeast to northern Arkansas. A low pressure area has formed on the front near Fort Smith, Arkansas this morning.  Kansas City has northeast wind that is blowing towards this low pressure area and it is pretty cold, in the 30s this morning. What happens next creates some forecast challenges for the weekend. Will it be in the 60s or 50s Saturday and Sunday? This is our forecast problem.

Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.




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