What Is Going On With This Weather Pattern?

Good morning bloggers,

Los Angeles – Denver – Kansas City:  Look at what has happened in the first 65 days of this cycling weather pattern.  The pattern likely set up around October 6th or 7th, so let’s just say October 7th is day 1 of this years LRC. Today is day 65 of this years cycling pattern that will continue through next September.  It may be a bit surprising when you see these results.

  • Los Angeles, CA (Downtown Civic Center):  L.A. has had 4.7% of their average rainfall in this early season, in these first 65 days of this years cycling pattern.  The rainfall total is 0.10″ with 2.10″ being average by December 10th.  Los Angeles had only 0.36″ at this point last year, but then got 10 inches of rain by the end of February.   The lowest rainfall year in their recorded history is 3.21″.  So, they have to get hit by a few storms eventually right?
  • Denver, CO:  Denver is having a very long snow drought to start the season. 2.8″ of snow did fall, however, at the beginning of this years LRC.  This happened on October 9th and it has not snowed since
  • Kansas City, MO:  This is a shocker.  Kansas City is actually above average on rainfall since this LRC began.  5.07″ liquid has fallen since October 7th, and this is 115% of average.  4.80″ fell in October since October 7th. Then, only 0.27″ has fallen in the past 48 days, a 48 day dry spell. Ouch!  It did snow with minor accumulations just north of KC on October 31st. A trace was recorded at KCI Airport. That is our sitting total for the season thus far.

In summary, today is day 48 of the current Kansas City dry spell. Regardless of what model you look at, the dry pattern seems to continue with variations from model run to model run making no difference. Something has to give eventually, or this will be an historically dry year with low snowfall totals in many spots.  I am expecting this to “give”, the next big chance is around Christmas week, or we will have to wait until January.

Snowfall since October1

I just saw this map, above, tweeted out. I need to spend a bit more time looking at this graphic, but wow!

Screen Shot 2017-12-11 at 7.03.49 AM

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Red Flag Warning (Fire danger warning).  The wind will shift to the northwest during the day with wind gusts up to 45 mph likely, possibly even 50 mph winds.  High:  54°
  • Tonight: Windy and colder. The winds gusting to 40 mph. Low:  25°
  • Tuesday:  Increasing clouds. High:  39°

The Developing Weather Pattern:

During these next ten days there will be a major transition in the weather pattern taking place, and yet look at this ten day precipitation forecast ending at midnight December 21st:


These next ten days are forecast to be extremely dry from Southern California east to Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.  Los Angeles, Denver, and KC remain almost rain and snow free through these ten days.

Look at what is forecast to happen just two days after this ten day stretch:


A blocking pattern is forecast to develop over the northern Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of Alaska. A storm is forecast to develop over the western states, but as I discussed, when it comes out, KC again was left almost high and dry. It seems almost impossible for this to happen, but we have experienced these things happening for years in a row now.  The surface map valid also at 288 hours or at midnight December 23rd, the storm is over the southwest. This is something we will be monitoring closely in the coming days.



Can you see Stormy The Weather Dog? She was five years old. How do I know, because this is a picture from December 8, 2005.  Stormy loved the snow. Sunny The Weather Dog barely knows what snow is as she is only 2 1/2 years old. 11″ of snow had fallen in the KC metro area. What happened the rest of that winter? 3 more inches fell. The winter forecast that year was for 13″ to fall.  I thought on December 8th that I had blown that winter forecast for snowfall. But, it ended up accurate.


This picture is from Saturday morning when there was a bit of frost on the ground.  I think Sunny will love to play in the snow, as she does in the book “It’s A Sunny Life”. We have a big book signing Saturday at the Nebraska Furniture Mart at 11 AM if you would like to come and get a present for a family member or a friend.  In the book, she makes paw prints in the snow to make a trail for her family to find her.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the cycling weather pattern.  Go over to the blog at Weather2020.com, it’s free now, and you can join in on the conversation.  Have a great start to the week.


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