What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  What do you think is going to happen this winter? Let’s test your LRC skills.  Go over to the blog here:  Weather2020 blog and let us know what you are seeing and I will share some of these on the air Tuesday night on 41 Action News. I will be providing a preview to the winter forecast Tuesday night at 10 PM.  The full winter forecast comes out two weeks from today.  The weather pattern is fascinating. According to my hypothesis, a unique weather pattern sets up every fall from around October 1 to November 30. The pattern then is established, cycles regularly, and continues through the next September.  As discussed last week, we are in the “panic period” where we are now still seeing parts of the pattern for the first time. What has happened in the past five weeks is of utmost importance, so when you make your prediction, think about that big picture.

The Developing Weather Pattern:

In 1982, my Junior year at the University of Oklahoma, I took Synoptic Meteorology and Synoptic Lab. We plotted so many maps back then and I got an A in Synoptic Lab. When you are plotting the 500 mb charts, you should draw in the 570 and 540 dm lines (dm stands for decameters).  The 500 mb level is half way through the atmosphere in weight. 0 mb, or no weight is the top of the atmosphere, and 1000 mb is near the surface.  This 500 mb level is around 18,000 feet up. I drew in these lines below:


A trough is forecast to swing across the west coast later this week. This map above is valid at 6 PM Thursday evening.  The map below is folic Sunday morning, when the Chiefs will be in East Rutherford, NJ to play the New York Giants. I am flying into New York Saturday for a two day trip and I have great seats to see if the Chiefs can beat the Giants to get to 7-3. I will be wearing a few layers as it looks pretty cold. Look at what happens to the trough as it moves into eastern North America:


Some blocking develops north of the upper low, and you can see this where I plotted the big H up there. The models continue to be all over the place after this period, and I still don’t trust them at all. Once we know the LRC better in just two weeks or so, we will begin to “know” when the models are right and “know” when they are likely wrong.

Screen Shot 2017-11-13 at 7.50.01 AM

The latest Arctic Oscillation Index came in this morning with the ensemble members of the models showing a very likely huge dip to negative that we have been waiting for, anticipating, and maybe it will actually happen. If this dip does indeed happen this week, the next ten days should become more unpredictable and if the pattern blocks up, the chance of an Arctic Blast will increase. Again, there are too many uncertainties at this moment.


At the surface, you can see this storm beginning to intensify as it moves out into the plains states Friday.  As this storm moves east it picks up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a blizzard forms just north of the Great Lakes over southeast Canada.


So, what do you think will happen this winter. Join in the conversation over at Weather2020 where we are sharing this technology with you.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading todays blog. Have a great start to the week.


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1 comment to What Do You Think Will Happen This Winter

  • Hockeynut69

    When looking at the pattern setting up, currently it appears we will be slightly below average in temps for the winter. I am struggling with a precipitation forecast, I feel like we are going to be in this zone in between above average and below average precipitation. Areas to the east and northeast in that above average zone and Kansas in the below average zone. A shift either way could really change our precip amounts. I have not been impressed with the precipitation for the first round of this cycle for KC. I do think that the I-44 corridor could be in trouble with ice as they will be in the zone that is between cold and warm air. I will say we will be above the past two years in snow but not thinking we will be above average due to how the cycle is setting up initially.