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Welcome Fall to July

Good Morning Bloggers!

We have a great morning with sunshine and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Now the strong cold front we have been talking about for several days is dipping south into northern Missouri.  Here is a look at the surface map:

GFS1

Showers and thunderstorms will fire along and ahead of the front as it sinks to the south.  We are already seeing showers and thunderstorms in NW MO/NE KS right now.  This is a still shot of ESP Live radar as of 8 AM:

GFS

We will watch to see if this rain continues as it pushes south towards the Kansas City metro area.  It looks like the showers and thunderstorms will be dropping into the KC Metro area by around noon and here is a still shot of our Powercast at about 10 AM  and it is mainly along and north of I-70.  Rainfall totals from today won’t be much with a half inch being the most in the rain gauge.

ECMWF

Temperatures are tricky today because of the rain chance this afternoon.  We will warm up quickly until noon and then we will drop when the rain moves into the area.  Here is a look at the hour by hour forecast I put together.  If we see the rain then our temperatures will drop to the upper 60s or lower 70s for the early afternoon and then once the rain moves out we will warm up a little bit.

dishwasher

Then welcome Fall! Tomorrow morning you may need a jacket as you head off to work in the morning.  Temperatures will start off in the lower 50s and could be we break a record?  We will have to wait and see!

Have a great day!

Kalee Dionne

 

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25 comments to Welcome Fall to July

  • sedsinkc

    Here’s what the most recent HRRR model run thinks for noon today: “http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/11/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_006.gif”

    Weather yin and yang: While we chill down, parts of NW Canada sizzle today: “https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsgJ9JYCIAAL556.png”

  • Hume-Dude

    I don’t like how it weakens the whole line as it moves south. I could use another nice soaker, crazy how quickly things dry up this time of the year. I don’t understand why it would weaken, it would be peaking heating time of the day, but there are many other dynamics at play I suppose. The HRRR has been pretty good handling the past few systems, lets see how it does this time although I am rooting against it this time. Hoping that 1/2″ falls at my place!

  • terrydsnowy

    Raining here in KCK nice good rain!

  • Hume-Dude

    Looking more and more like HRRR is right, line as a whole is weakening and I doubt it will hold together long enough to make it down to my area. Looks like it won’t do much in the metro either, I doubt many folks get more than 1/4″. Really odd how a front THIS STRONG is producing such weak activity, I would think a temp contrast like this would generate an area of strong uplift , but something just isn’t right this time I guess. Maybe by end of this week a better chance will come through and by them we will all need a good drink for our farms and lawns.

    • Hume-Dude

      Another good forecast made by the HRRR model. Activity weakening significantly south of the city, blowing up big time out in Central and Eastern MO. Just like the NAM was the man for the winter forecasts , the HRRR is “The Man” for these summer systems so far this year.

      • sedsinkc

        Hume, the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is a model that is designed to pick up on fairly small scale convective features. As you said, it’s done a fairly decent job on these summer systems. One reason today’s front wasn’t a big storm producer is that we had a front come through yesterday, and because of this and the storm activity associated with the first front (outflow boundaries, etc.) it decreased the amount of heat, northward moisture transport, and surface wind convergence along the second, stronger front.

        • Hume-Dude

          Thanks for the explanation SEDS, makes perfect sense actually. I forgot about that front yesterday as it really washed out before it got down south to my area. Man this front would really have lighted up , had it not been for that meddling front yesterday!

  • Pete Capone

    I am sure that MowDob “The Fabricator” will have many unofficial reports that will “line up perfectly with the LRC”. Or Gary, if the chosen one wishes to grace the blog with his presence.

    • Dobber

      Thanks for gracing us with you presence peterrobyin . What’s your summer forecast?

      • robyn corzine

        Mikey errrr I mean dopey how goes it?

        • Dobber

          No there’s no errrrrr…. You know I’m not mike, bat boy. How’s your evening going? Care to make a 2 week rainfall forecast? Take the side of averages….. It’s gonna quit raining its July. Stick your neck out Sam….. Errrrrr miss corzine.

    • Chuck

      Hey Peter Peter something eater…..remember when you were begging people to come look at your 17+ inch snowfall out by the arboretum? I remember vividly. What a tool, telling people to believe an UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION amount of snowfall. Why would we ever believe that?

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Merriam Ks, we picked up about .27″ this morning looking forward to the cooler weather tomorrow today is still rather humid.

  • storm42

    Looking forward to the cool down. You probably already know this and had to quickly get the blog done, but the rap ucar site is a a lot better for surface observations. The only thing though is that people would have to draw the fronts on there themselves. I think you do a fine job, however, keep it up.

    “http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20140714&endTime=-1&duration=0″

  • sedsinkc

    0.12″ in KC North from earlier today, two day total 0.58″.

  • sedsinkc

    Winds should pick up stronger from the NW in the next hour or two as CAA picks up in earnest into our area behind the front. Dewpoints in the upper 40s in eastern Nebraska with NW winds gusting over 30 mph. Could the all time Kansas City July record low of 51 be in jeopardy?

  • stl78

    Beautiful day in council bluffs ia minus the strong winds. Seds is correct about the wind. It feels more like oct than july. The moist air from the showers this mornin has been replaced by dry cool air. I ant believe its july!

  • Drought Miser

    It’s 79° outside and way less humid thanks to the Polar Vortex wait a minute it’s not called that ok thanks Oh Canada!! Ummm folks we have a long way to drop to hit Gary ‘ s forecast low of 51° that is nearly a 30° drop!!! Wowowo

  • Emaw

    It’s already down to 75 in north Olathe, this $hitz for real!

  • robyn corzine

    Emaw what does Billy down on the farm have to say about this?

    Not much rain today. Hope we get some more rain soon. IF it heats back up it won’t take long to dry out.

  • Hockeynut69

    So much hype by the weather folks on all stations. I heard extremely cold temperatures used this morning. It is all relative. 54° in July may be considered cold but in December it’s extremely warm. Let’s not overdo the hype and keep it real. Beautiful day today. I am working from home so may have to take the laptop outside.

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from the Ikea plant, as I drove in through the vast stretches of Merriam Ks, I can report temps ranging from record lows of 56°all the way up to 57° burrrrrr