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Weird System to Watch

Good Wednesday bloggers,

The weather forecast through Monday is not too difficult. Partly to mostly sunny, highs around 90, lows 65-70 with one slight chance of rain. The one chance is Friday as a weak cold front drifts south.

The forecast for next Tuesday-Thursday is a bit more interesting as we will track two features. The first one is a weird system forming in the southwest Plains and the second is a cold front with a system coming in from the northwest.

Today we had a very weak disturbance drift south and it generated some very small, pulsing downpours in eastern Kansas. They are drifting south and may last until 10 PM. These may be the world’s smallest thunderstorms.

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The next chance for a few thunderstorms is on Friday as a weak cold front drifts south. I may have been generous in calling this a cold front.  It is more likely a surface trough as there is really no temperature change behind this alleged front.

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The feature that has a chance to bring us our next chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms is a weird upper low forming in the southwest Plains over the weekend. This data is from the 18Z NAM, and as I am writing this blog, the 18Z GFS is showing this feature develop over the weekend. Next Tuesday-Thursday we will see this low head northeast bringing an increased chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. If it wanted to, it could be a widespread rain event. But, we know better. The only way we go for a widespread event is if we see evidence of it forming the day of the chance of rain. This is still the same ridiculous weather pattern.

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Have a great night and we will see how the new data trends with this next, weird system.

Jeff Penner

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