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Weekend rain chances

10:30p Update
The line of storms in Nebraska looks pretty healthy and is diving to the Southeast. Mentioned it earlier this evening on the 6p newscast that this would be an area to keep eyes on going into the overnight period.
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The latest HRRR picks up on the line, but claims it loses steam right before it gets to the St. Joseph area.
SATAM

Matter of fact, it actually suggests the rain will take a turn to the East/Northeast as it gets to the area. Seems a little unusual to me.
The raw RPM is similar to the HRRR but does NOT turn the activity East. It actually suggests the decaying rain gets to KC around 10am before falling apart quickly.
RPM10amSat

Don’t be surprised if there is a little rain to start Saturday. The rain should end and the afternoon looks dry. Make the most of it because we could be in for a rainy Sunday. I will be very curious to see what the forecast information looks like tomorrow for Sunday. I have seen subtle hints that things may change a bit on Sunday.

10p Update
There is a line of storms in Nebraska holding together and moving to the Southeast. It’s possible this holds all night and makes it to Kansas City by early Saturday morning. The latest models indicate it will fizzle out JUST before it gets here. I am a little suspicious of that.
I’ll give another update after the newscast is over.

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Clouds have held on for most of the day today, helping to keep our temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. But boy, it was close! It’s been nice to not have to deal with a big heat wave this summer.
On the visible satellite picture, you can see the clouds over Northern Missouri. Plus, I have circled the overshooting cloud tops where thunderstorms are ongoing. Those are moving to the East.
VisSat

A pretty good spread in the temperatures, thanks to the clouds. There are as of 4:30p.
2 PM

I don’t see Kansas City getting rain or storms this evening. The clouds may be partially to thank for that, keeping the atmosphere stable. However, I will continue to watch the radar and provide updates if needed.

Meanwhile, going into the weekend, I am tracking a few chances for rainfall in the area. Odds will trend upward as we go toward Sunday.
3 PM

There could be a few showers that sneak into far Northwestern Missouri by Saturday morning. I don’t think it will amount to a lot at this time, but the chance exists. The latest RPM and HRRR models are showing the rain getting right to the tri-state line and then falling apart. I will continue to monitor this through the evening.
The afternoon on Saturday should be dry, but there may be a few t-storms that get going in Central Kansas by the evening. Those would be very isolated at best.

Going into Sunday, we have better chances for rainfall. Another system will roll out of Nebraska and this one may be a little more potent.
Here is the RPM output for Sunday morning:
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The latest 18z NAM for Sunday has a pretty similar idea, but a little more widespread.
NAM SUN

Indications are that we’ll get a break in the showers/rain on Sunday, but rain will return in the afternoon to evening. Here again, the RPM model’s thoughts:
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And the NAM forecast model for Sunday afternoon:
NAM SUNPM

So the takeaway here is that Sunday could wind up be a wet day. I know there are several outdoor events going on Sunday. May want to have a backup plan or try to get things done on Saturday.

Royals are in action this weekend and into next week. Here’s the forecast:
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Temperatures will be warm, but not too bad for August. Great for baseball! Rain chances for Sunday could pose a problem. Those may linger into Monday morning. But I believe it will be gone by the game Monday night.

Hey, the state fair continues tonight into tomorrow! A quick look at what to expect in Sedalia if you plan to attend:
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I will continue to be on duty in the evenings through the weekend and will give updates on the rain chances. There is still a chance things may shift just a bit, so continue to monitor the forecast!
Enjoy the weekend!
-JD

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8 comments to Weekend rain chances

  • Drought Miser

    It looks like Storms in Nebraska may make it to us by morning

  • Drought Miser

    JD was right on the cast for the Meso last night it fell apart in St. Joe. How do they figure this stuff out?!!!

  • VerySkeptical

    Who cares Dobby? Just stick to weather on the WEATHER BLOG. Or just go back to the “other” one that you pay to read.

  • Hockeynut69

    Better chance looks to be overnight. Should be a great day today.

  • luvsno

    I am getting ready to go out to the Midwest Balloonfest at the KS Speedway ! Going to ge a great day for it weather-wise ! This whole week is going to be great ! No 90’s ! Are we done with 90’s ? And the Supermoon tomorrow…hope it is a clear night ! Everyone have a great weekend !

  • Hume-Dude

    Things starting to green back up nicely around town. I have a question regarding the rpm power cast which is used during the newscasts. I really like this new model, but the map itself is very biased to the northern counties. It actually shows a visual of as far north as Omaha, NE and well into IA. Yet it only goes about two counties south, and there a lot of folks down there in Pleasanton, Garnett, Iola, emporia, butler that would certainly appreciate the coverage. I don’t know if that could be shifted, but those of us with interest in southern areas would really appreciate any tweaking you might do. If it is even possible, I know some of those computer programs are not as user friendly as we would like them to be. Thanks for hearing me out, enjoy the weekend folks. GO ROYALS!

  • Hockeynut69

    No updates for tonight’s storms?

  • Terri

    I have been hearing predictions (from other sources) of an El Nino this winter. Do you think this is likely?