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Wednesday afternoon running blog

11:45p Update
Still sitting here at the station keeping an eye on the radar. No warnings in place but still a good amount of rain & thunder out there. The heaviest has now passed through the Metro and is pushing to the East.
2 PM

I’ve seen unofficial rain reports via Twitter of near 4″ in the Leavenworth area. Looking at the data that is rolling into our system, these are the rain totals so far:
1

Here is what the radar is estimating so far:
2 PM

Obviously still another hour or two of rain still to go around the KC area before this thing moves off into Central Missouri. Still not expecting severe weather, however strong winds would still be possible on the Southern end of the line which currently stretches from Harrisonville to about Garnett.

Hopefully those who have really been asking for the rain, get it. As mentioned before, not everyone will pick up meaningful moisture and I am willing to be we’ll have one person here who is unhappy with the amount they picked up. Happens every time! Wish there was a way we could change that.

I quick reminder for those who may be woken up by storms tonight:
8

I think this will conclude my running blog update for the night. Enjoy the rain, sleep well and I’ll see you again Thursday afternoon starting at 4p.
-J

8:35p Update
And…. Here comes the next round of t-storms.
2 PM

I am expecting the rain to continue off & on through the overnight. Not anticipating severe weather, but at this stage of the game, I still cannot rule out of rogue storm that pulses up briefly. For most, this will bring heavy rain & thunder.
Rain should be off to the East of KC Thursday morning. I am worried we’ll see thick clouds through most of the day. If so, this will hold our highs temps down. I am going to take our high from 81° to 79°. Although, I did that last night for today (took us from 91° to 88° for the 10p newscast) and it cost us…because the high today was 91° in KC! I figured clouds/rain would be in the city an hour sooner than when it actually happened.
Thus, part of me hesitates to change the high for Thursday, but at the same time, with a wet ground and potential for low clouds and drizzle (“grunge” as I call it), it makes sense. I don’t think many will complain if we happen to touch 80.

Latest forecast & look at the radar coming up at 10p. Meantime, I have to get back to making several new graphical elements for future shows. I have been busy with this project for a while and it’s all about to be finished up. Graphics are my “thing”, if you will, and I enjoy creating new elements. It’s also a bit of a challenge and I enjoy a good challenge!

6:30p Update
The bulk of the heavy rain has moved into Western Missouri. No warnings in place at this time, but still this thing packs a lot of “growl” to it. A fair amount of thunder & lightning out there still. We’re also not done. A second batch of rain & thunderstorms expected later on tonight.
1 PM

We have used up some of the energy provided earlier today by the sun. So at this point, what comes our way next will likely be a lot of heavy rain plus thunder/lightning. It’s possible the LLJ (low-level jet) gets involved after 10p tonight and we see a brief uptick in storm strength. If so, greatest threat would remain wind.

There have been several reports of minor wind damage and there are a couple thousand people without power across the area. In addition to that, localized flooding is ongoing. This may be a good night to stay home and watch 41 Action News. And hey, if the power happens to go out, our 10p newscast will be streamed live online. You can always watch via your mobile device.

You will ONLY see me on air tonight, cutting into programming, if it’s NEEDED. If you do not see my on air doing cut-ins, then the storms are not severe. Again, some may sound pretty threatening, but a lot of this is going to be bark, not bite.
Keep eyes on my twitter page for updates here and there as well.

4:45p Update
First wave of rain/storms moving into the SW side of the Metro.
1 PM

This is all moving to the Northeast and packing a fair amount of heavy rain, plus thunder & lightning. Behind this activity, near the Manhattan area, new storms are starting to form. Just a matter of time before this all fills in and widespread rain encompasses the area. On average, rain amounts could be near 2″ by tomorrow morning. Obviously, some will see a lot more than that and some will see a lot less.

3:45p Update

Just to give you a heads up: No active watches as of this time and there are no plans in place for a watch to be issued. That said, we have storms on the radar which formed over the last hour or two.
1 PM

At this time, we’re not expecting a “severe event” tonight. But there could still be a couple of stronger storms that get going. If that happens, the likely threat would be hail near nickel to quarter size and also winds around 50-55mph would be possible. Again, this would be more of the exception than the rule.
2 PM

What I think will happen tonight is that these storms will bring more bark than bite. Meaning: it may *sound* bad, but that should be it. Heavy rain is likely to fall in a few different areas, but as usual: not EVERYONE will get the heavy rain. Matter of fact, there will probably be some areas that don’t get much at all. I could easily see values range from 0.10″ to 4.00″ across the viewing area. It’s all about where the heavy storms setup and how many heavy cells pass over the same area.

I will be on at 4, 5, and 6p showing the latest radar trends. It’s possible this stuff lasts through the evening into tomorrow morning. But many will argue: we need the rain.
-JD

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64 comments to Wednesday afternoon running blog

  • AW

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS LINE IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH…HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING…

    These storms are approaching Kansas City… should be interesting.

  • Overbrook

    Started sprinkling and occasional distant rumble here around 3:00. Rain picked up, became heavy a couple of times with steady thunder and lightning, fair amount of cloud to ground. Some gusty winds, no hail. Picked up nearly an inch of rain in an hour, now picking up the edge of another sliding by to our south and building east.

    Nice to see on top of .75 in two showers Sunday.

  • Overbrook

    Yeah, that about sums it up… (from Topeka NWS)

    KSZ040-055-056-062145-
    DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-OSAGE-
    413 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

    …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE…SOUTHERN
    DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES…

    THROUGH 445 PM CDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OSAGE…SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH…HEAVY RAIN AND CONTINUOUS DEADLY LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE GLOBE…LONE STAR…CLINTON…CLINTON LAKE…BALDWIN CITY AND PLEASANT GROVE.

    • AW

      Accuweather says rain should start in 7 min. here in Leavenworth, Ks., and in 48 min in Kansas City, MO.

  • j-ox

    Some decent winds w/ gusts to 40-45 out of the West…and now a nice steady rain that will continue for another 30min or so. Looking forward to seeing our total…and again Thursday AM.

  • AW

    Significant Weather Advisory was issued for Leavenworth County.

  • Emaw

    Just had a brief thunder shower in north Olathe, looks to me like the south side of the metro is not going to get much though.

    • Chuck

      Nice long drink here at 143rd and Switzer/Quivira area. I think the south side is getting a fair amount after all.

  • Fat_Louie

    Don’t care about all of your alerts, I get those on my Iphone. There’s nothing approaching my cracked land here in Cass County, that’s all I care about.

    • OP-Merriam-Line

      Thanks for your valuable input there, “Louie”. The interesting thing is that you don’t have to read posts on this blog….so don’t

  • OP-Merriam-Line

    Thought it would slide to the north past me, but now one popped up on the SW corner of the 435 loop…

  • Weatherfreak01

    My pool really needs water. I am hoping Mother Nature takes care of that for me to help with the water bill. I have turned off the skimmers and am only using the main drain because of the water level. I know that if I add water, we will get a ton of rain here in Lee’s Summit and I will end up draining off some.

  • osupike17

    Right by Staley High School and already got a nice soaking from a cell that popped up ahead of the main storm. Been pouring hard for 15+ min now.

  • AW

    Raining in Leavenworth…

  • Weatherfreak01

    Hearing distant thunder now in Lee’s Summit by Lake Lotawana. Time to get the dogs to do their business one last time since they are afraid of the thunder..

  • terrydsnowy

    Thunderstorms about to roll through KCK. The Thunder Rolls.

  • terrydsnowy

    Raining Hard in KCK.

  • AW

    Thunder is really loud here in Leavenworth… radar looks like Leavenworth is going to get the biggest part of the storm.

  • Screaming Yellow Zonker

    Wow tough time in the broadcast room at 5:19 p.m.!

  • Emaw

    Already picked up 1″ in north Olathe, glad I was wrong.

    • Dobber

      I am glad your were wrong to. do you think its gonna rain all night? Nice if it would.

      In 2012,during the drought of 2012-13. that hurricane came over us in August wasn’t it? I dont remember the dates….. That was one of the most epic rains in Kc in recent history. 6 inches I think.

      I’m glad the skies have opened…..

  • Hockeynut69

    The rain gauges on stormwatch.com are filling fast. Hope everyone is cautious of flash flooding. Be safe and rejoice the rain!

  • Drought Miser

    Drought Miser reporting live from Junction City Ks,
    I can only report light sprinkles and distant thunder here…. it seems KC was the sweet spot for this go around boy oh boy we needed it!! this should push D1andD2 stages out of the metro on tomorrow’s Drought Monitor report…

  • Fat_Louie

    What hurricane? I don’t remember that

    • luvsno

      Hurricane Isaac…broke the back of the horrible heat here in 2012.

      • mowermike

        luvsno,

        That rainfall that summer saved a lot of trees as we were very dry during the fall following that one rain event. You take that rain out, we would of had a mess of dead trees.

  • luvsno

    Yes! We had torrential rains, and a LOT of VERY close lightning strikes in our Olathe neighborhood. Came down in buckets for about 15-20 min. The frontal wind was very impressive also. (Not sure if that is the right term,..but trees were bending when the front came through).
    Will be interesting to find out how much rain we got….wish we had a rain gauge !

  • mowermike

    Drought,

    The KC metro is not in a D1 or D2 and has not been for many months now.(9+ months). The D1 phase is in SW MO. Several counties south of us here in KC. The KC metro has been in a DO(not considered a drought headline according to the US Drought classifications)for better than 10 months now. The last 2 weeks the counties north of the river aren’t even in a D0 headline.

    BTW, tonight’s rains won’t be factored into this week’s post. It will go towards next week. We continue to be above average on moisture for the summer months and many areas around town were above this spring. All in all, there has been zero impacts from the yearly deficit this year because of the timing of these rain events and the weather that follows. (it’s been a cool one this year, that helps big time when you have deficits) We’re closing in on the deficit as we speak.

    Good news for all…..

    Go Royals!!

    • Hume-Dude

      MMike – I am every bit of the D1 the monitor has my area under. No rain since July 8 ….getting crunchy! Some places south of me near Nevada ,MO just got a nice 1/2-1″ though. Main energy consistently going north of us, look at Joplins horrible rain deficit , like 14″ for the year. That’s the dry stuff my area is tapping this season, my luck!! Way better up in KC though, you are right about that area.

      • robyn corzine

        Hume you have to remember the bubble environment some are in. Areas are way behind in precip, some as much as 7 inches. Does tgis rain help that deficit of course it does but we need a lot more of these storms to make it up.

  • Hume-Dude

    Less than .1 at the farm in extreme NW Vernon Co, MO. Great rain in Shawnee !! Couple nice cells managed to miss me…waiting for the main line to come through later tonight….I hope! Anybody else noticing how the forty percent pops for the weekend are now reduced to twenty percent chances? I see what’s happening here now…..

    • Dobber

      We got a nice rain Hume….. Is your farm closer to Joplin, than Kc?

      • Hume-Dude

        Literally almost exactly in the middle between two cities. On extreme edge of both viewing areas so nobody gives us any coverage….unless there is a tornado or something

  • robyn corzine

    A good old fashioned thunderstorm FINALY. Received just about 1.25 inches of liquid gold. Looks like my forecast was right on! BOOM.

    Great job JD on the weather presentation. Very refreshing to have calm informative weather information that was not overhyped. Wish you can become Chief Met somewhere in KC! You are a pleasure to watch! Keep up the great work JD.

    • Dobber

      What’s wrong?

    • Chuck

      Your forecast? What? Here is your forecast Robyn, uh, whoever you are (actually we know) just one day ago from your post yesterday, a mere 24-30ish hours away from the event:

      Robyn Corzine:

      Looks to be another miss for the metro for any beneficial rain. By beneficial I mean 3/4 of an inch. Any less then that will quickly be gone. I hope I am wrong and if I am I will be on here to say so.

      JD enjoy your blogs and weathercast. Full of information without all the crap like dogs and sky views and useless dribble. Wish you were the Chief Met here. Who ever gets you will be a lucky market.

      So, what forecast are you saying is right on? Making up stuff to look good? BOOM!!!!!

  • Emaw

    luvsno,
    You can get a basic rain gauge at any hardware store for $10.00 or less.

    • luvsno

      Emaw
      lol thanks, but I would not know where to put it……any suggestions ? In the sun, shade, out on flat ground away from trees and house ?

  • VerySkeptical

    JD is very good! KSHB is lucky to have him indeed.

  • VerySkeptical

    Still another struggle to get WIDESPREAD rain. There is more to the West, so who knows? It’s just good to get a no hype weathercast.

  • Emaw

    luvsno,
    Somewhere in your yard thats somewhat open away from trees/structures, it doesnt have to be perfect like you’re taking measurements for NWS or anything but you’ll get a good read on precip. at your locale.

  • Hockeynut69

    2″ and still pouring just west of Liberty. Hope everyone else is getting rain as well.

  • OP-Merriam-Line

    Almost 3 here.

  • Drought Miser

    I really like the running blog format I can see the time line of events clear this thing was a real drought buster for some folk’s! !!

  • Hockeynut69

    I am going out on a limb here but my guess is (no scientific research was done for this prediction), I would say we are ahead in precipitation for the month of August thus far.

  • nice post. rain rain and rain.

  • goodlifegardens

    Garden City/Creighton 2.4″ We missed the first couple but must have had a big one sometime after midnight. Slept right through it.

  • frigate

    3.42 in SW Grain Valley, MO!! Whoohoo!!!

  • Farmgirl

    2.83 inches in La Cygne and barely even muddy. We were soooo dry. Pastures greening up quickly now. Really needed this rain and so thankful for it.

  • Hume-Dude

    Almost 3″ for Hume-Dude in extreme NW Vernon Co. , MO! My dad claimed it was over 4″, but I think he has a Chinese rain gauge. Going with estimated precip map here. Man was it dry, rain like that would usually flood creek out of the banks, it barely got the creek up 2′. Got probably around 3″ in Shawnee, KS too – so good widespread rains all around this time for once. Just so happy to see some water around!

    TELL ME YOU GOT SOMETHING FARMERMIKE!

  • j-ox

    1.5″ in NW Lawrence = .5″ from wave one Wed afternoon + 1″ from the evening wave(s).