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Weathering the madness of March

It would not be March in the Kansas City area if we weren’t talking about 70-degree temperatures and snow chances all withing 48 hours of each other. Let’s focus on that warm up first, since MANY are ready for winter to pack its bags and leave.

Our sky will clear out overnight into Sunday and the winds will move to the Southwest. This is a classic setup for warmer air to invade the area, pretty much drawing in the warmer air from the Desert Southwest.
SunChart
Also factor in the higher angle of the sun, plus the increasing length of daylight, we should see a nice spike in temperatures.
3 PM

Speaking of winds, those will be on the increase for Sunday and into Monday, with sustained speeds around 15 to 25 MPH and gusts over 30 MPH possible.
1 PM

Monday might be the “best” day off all, when it comes to warmer temperatures. Expect highs to surge into the 70s; some of the warmest air we have seen since November 16th (the last time KC hit 70°).
5

Just as fast as it gets warm, we’ve got change to discuss. By Tuesday night a cold front will be knocking on our doorstep. As you can imagine, this will bring an end to the 70s and a return to more winter-like weather.  And, this is a storm that we have been tracking for weeks to arrive this week. It is right on schedule and you can read about it on the Weather2020.com blog:  LRC In Cycle 3
TuesSetup

Now, this is where we have some kinks in the forecast models. If you look at the GFS, the bulk of the precip for this storm goes off to our East.
Wed-GFS

However, the ECMWF (European) model says the moisture lands right on top of KC.
Wed-Eruo
If the Euro verifies, it would suggest at least a few inches of snow across the area. But again, this is just a model and merely a suggestion of what may occur. That said, it should be noted that the Euro handled our previous system pretty well in regard to snowfall amounts (it was the only model suggesting under 5″ of snow in Kansas City last weekend).  You can bet this is a system we will closely monitor with each new run of data.

In any event, this is what the month of March is all about in our area: a weather buffet with a little bit of everything possible. So far this month we’ve seen snow, sleet, and single digit highs. Now, sunshine and 70s are just around the corner. It’s only fitting we continue the tug-o-war as we move to the middle of the month.

For those hoping/wanting/wishing for Spring to arrive and stay, you may have to wait a little longer. And for those begging/pleading/dreaming of one more round of winter, you may just get it; sooner than later.

Spring install
Here’s to hoping your favorite weather happens outside of your door this week.
-JD

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36 comments to Weathering the madness of March

  • Hockeynut69

    Boo to winter, bring on Spring!

  • reafamily

    What’s the Jeff Foxworthy line? – If you have used your heater and air conditioner in the same day, you might be from Missouri. Let the fun begin! :)

  • Emaw

    Mercy sakes alive, sounds like this gonna be a real humdinger come Wednesday, batten down the hatches, Katy bar the door, Elizabeth I’m coming too see ya, this is the big one!

  • terrydsnowy

    European model is the man! Let it snow let it snow! One or two more storm’s!

    • Drought Miser

      These little systems sometimes sneak up on them this time of year Terry so you may get yyour wishes!!!!

  • Polardog

    I have pulled all the glass out the Jeep and I have new trail doors coming on Monday. Opening the Jeep up to the weather pretty much seals the deal. It will snow.

    PDog

  • Emaw

    PDog,
    I wouldn’t sweat it too much, 60 degree weather leading up to Wednesday (when it’s going to be in the 40s) and 60 degree weather after.

  • Drought Miser

    Great right up JD !!
    Ummm where is Champs? Oh I bet he forgot to set his clock back… let’s get some snowfall maps on here folks so far I only see the European from JD.

  • yourmom

    Will we have slick roads on Wednesday morning.?

  • yourmom

    Forecasters said we may get a couple inches at most on Wednesday, nothing to write home about in terms of snowfall totals.

    • After 75 degrees Monday and possibly Tuesday, any snow is incredible, but certainly it may happen. This is not a little system.

    • And, if it does snow, it would likely be near or just above freezing. The roads would only get covered if it snowed very hard.

      • Dobber

        If? What’s it gonna do Gary? I hate ifs……

        • Unfortunately, when predicting the future there are always ifs. Do you know exactly what you will be doing minute by minute from 9 AM until 3 PM next Wednesday? You can predict what you may be doing, but it may depend on IF something else happens between now and then.

          Gary

  • sedsinkc

    Have no use for winter storms from now until December. I’m putting a hex on Wednesday’s storm. Sorry, Terry. The next 3 days including today are going to be wonderful. Glad about the time change as well. Bring on spring/summer and the young, attractive women in their warm weather attire (as my middle-aged gf knocks me upside the head, lol).

    • terrydsnowy

      Come Tuesday night old man weather returns.For one last stand. Because it’s still he’s season. I feel in the mood for some more snow. So enjoy the next couple of day’s.

      • luvsno

        lol Terry…..old man weather :)
        I like your enthusiasm for snow Terry . I think you might even like snow more than Gary does !

      • sedsinkc

        Ok Terry, because I like your enthusiasm I’ll forego the hex this time. Enjoy your storm. Since temperatures will be marginal and the 3 days before Wednesday will be so warm, the roads should be ok, unless we get crazy snowfall rates like the 1996 “October Surprise.” Que sera sera.

        • Drought Miser

          Phew thanks Seds I was going to
          be very worried about Terry if you hexed this storm system!!!

  • yewtrees

    Not much snow at all on Tuesday night, if any!

    NWS: Timing indicates the best forcing will arrive in our section of the Plains States Tuesday night, with any precipitation early in the night as all rain owing to the warm nose aloft. As Tuesday night progresses it then turns into a race between exiting precipitation and the cooling temps when it come to precipitation type. Accumulations should be on the low end given the short residency time of the system. Temps Wednesday will be a bit cool, though highs will still climb into the 40s.

  • yewtrees

    Gary, which part of previous LRC is related to this “not a little system” on Tuesday?

  • Drought Miser

    Tomorrow marks 114 days since our last 70 degrees day that’s gotta be some type of record after all everyone I talk to from the mighty Mo. Say if you don’t like the weather in Missouri wait a day or two it will change !!!

  • sedsinkc

    Whether it’s rain or snow, we need some moisture. KC at 65% of average precip YTD and the wet months are fast approaching.

    • Drought Miser

      I know this Drought stuff is getting old it keeps on repeating over and over and to make matters worse an El Nino is setting up for this upcoming winter(less then 6 months to the start of metro logical winter) great for So Cal no so great for mid sections of the Conus!!!

  • GarySaid71Degrees

    Wait 5 minutes and it will change … unless you’d like it to get out of the 60s.

    My name? That honors a day not 114 days ago that Gary called for 71, and it was 54 (as I recall).

    yewtrees: Agreed. Where’s the almighty LRC for this system? It’s flawless when it matches, not so much when it doesn’t, I suppose.

    Drought MIser: No doubt a record. It’s been a half-year of records. Cold records. This bites.

    seds: Agreed. I’d like to see a day of non-torrential rains, that soak in, instead of snow that evaporates.

    Bring on the spring storm crazies. The snow freaks are like the fat girl with the TV show. Entitled.

  • mmack66

    Wait. Snow evaporates?

    • sedsinkc

      Some amount of snow can evaporate, or go directly from solid water to water vapor without becoming a liquid first. The term for this process is sublimation.

  • HeatMiser

    It’s interesting how Gary at least holds out the possibility for snow when TWC and Accuweather say it ain’t happening for us.

    • Drought Miser

      Yes i can confirm Accu + Wx did take snow off the app for Wednesday and I’m not happy with that.

  • batman

    It’s not going to snow on Wednesday. I see Gary is laready playing the “we are forecasting the future” card for Wednesday. If I was paid close to 400 grand a year I would predict the future as well with the same excuses.

    Terry it’s nt going to snow and if it would snow it won’t amount to too much. No more snow plows or snow blowers are needed anymore this season. Bring on the tornado’s, hail, and severe storms! Let’s hpe for EF4 or EF5 with in 50 miles of us this year. With no loss of life of course. I want to see cows flying by the window!

  • Hockeynut69

    NOOOOOO! No cows flying, please! Beef is already expensive enough!