Weather Pattern Is In Transition (LRC 2012-2013 first thoughts)
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Good morning bloggers,
A cold front is approaching us today and will pass through by later this afternoon. This front will likely move through dry with no rain at all. Temperatures will warm up to near 70° ahead of the front and then the wind will pick up from the northwest this evening and temperatures will drop to near freezing by morning. Today is day 133 of the Drought in the Heartland and there are some changes showing up.
The weather pattern is in transition with a storm off the California coast caught in this change. The models are forecasting a strong westerly jet stream developing over the Pacific Ocean that will be heading out across the west coast into the central United States by one week from now. This map, below, shows the European Model forecast valid at 168 hours from 7 PM last night, or next Monday night (the GFS model has a similar solution):
The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle):
- A unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th
- Long term/long-wave troughs and ridges become established and then repeat at regular times within a cycling weather pattern. These dominant features show us where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be at their weakest.
- The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and through the next September until a new pattern sets up again in the early fall
According to the LRC, we believe that this developing pattern is just now evolving. Day one of this year’s pattern may have occurred during the past few days to a week or so, but I am not sure yet. It is something I usually can identify weeks from now, when the true beginning of this year’s weather pattern started. I do know that something completely different from last year is now starting and we will know what the details are, and what the potential is for this developing weather pattern to become much more exciting than this past year’s weather pattern that helped create the drought. Our winter forecast will be coming up during the third week of November after we see the beginning of this year’s weather pattern. We continue to learn more each year and hopefully we will be able to make an accurate long range winter forecast. Of course we will be giving it our best shot, or you can just use Meteorologist Brett Anthony’s Acorn theory.
The map above is a strong indication of this changing weather pattern. What will evolve out of this more zonal weather pattern early next week? It could be a strong forecasting indicator to what may happen this winter, or more likely just one of the pieces of the complex LRC Puzzle.
Below, you can see the water-vapor satellite picture from around 7:30 AM this morning. Just off the central California coast is a storm system that will affect our weather Thursday night into Saturday night. Another front will move through Thursday and stall before moving back north by Saturday morning in response to this approaching storm system. Bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. In last year’s weather pattern these warm fronts would just wash away and jump north with a lack of any organization to the precipitation pattern in our area. Let’s see what happens with this storm, that I believe is caught in the changing weather pattern.
Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of some of these changes and our next chances for rain on 41 Action News today and tonight.
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