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Weather Pattern Is In Transition (LRC 2012-2013 first thoughts)

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Good morning bloggers,

A cold front is approaching us today and will pass through by later this afternoon.  This front will likely move through dry with no rain at all. Temperatures will warm up to near 70° ahead of the front and then the wind will pick up from the northwest this evening and temperatures will drop to near freezing by morning.  Today is day 133 of the Drought in the Heartland and there are some changes showing up.

The weather pattern is in transition with a storm off the California coast caught in this change.  The models are forecasting a strong westerly jet stream developing over the Pacific Ocean that will be heading out across the west coast into the central United States by one week from now. This map, below, shows the European Model forecast valid at 168 hours from 7 PM last night, or next Monday night (the GFS model has a similar solution):

The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle):

  • A unique weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th
  • Long term/long-wave troughs and ridges become established and then repeat at regular times within a cycling weather pattern.  These dominant features show us where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be at their weakest.
  • The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through the rest of fall, winter, spring, and through the next September until a new pattern sets up again in the early fall
According to the LRC, we believe that this developing pattern is just now evolving.  Day one of this year’s pattern may have occurred during the past few days to a week or so, but I am not sure yet. It is something I usually can identify weeks from now, when the true beginning of this year’s weather pattern started.  I do know that something completely different from last year is now starting and we will know what the details are, and what the potential is for this developing weather pattern to become much more exciting than this past year’s weather pattern that helped create the drought.  Our winter forecast will be coming up during the third week of November after we see the beginning of this year’s weather pattern.  We continue to learn more each year and hopefully we will be able to make an accurate long range winter forecast.  Of course we will be giving it our best shot, or you can just use Meteorologist Brett Anthony’s Acorn theory.
The map above is a strong indication of this changing weather pattern.  What will evolve out of this more zonal weather pattern early next week? It could be a strong forecasting indicator to what may happen this winter, or more likely just one of the pieces of the complex LRC Puzzle.
Below, you can see the water-vapor satellite picture from around 7:30 AM this morning.  Just off the central California coast is a storm system that will affect our weather Thursday night into Saturday night.  Another front will move through Thursday and stall before moving back north by Saturday morning in response to this approaching storm system.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. In last year’s weather pattern these warm fronts would just wash away and jump north with a lack of any organization to the precipitation pattern in our area. Let’s see what happens with this storm, that I believe is caught in the changing weather pattern.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog.  We will go over the details of some of these changes and our next chances for rain on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

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37 comments to Weather Pattern Is In Transition (LRC 2012-2013 first thoughts)

  • Gary, The LRC proved this season it can,t forecast up-coming seasons,as proven this last one…How are you going to change its methods of predicting the K.C.metros weather??? sighed(signed), Kevin Pres. of KFC(Kevins Forecasting Center). Have a good 1. :)

  • Henley

    One of my Oak Trees has Acorns but the rest don’t, I wonder how this fits in with BAAT (Brett Anthony Acorn theory)?

  • stl78

    The wife and I have train ticks to hermon mo(wineries about 1 1/2 from St louis). Its only tues but I’m starting to worry about the forecast. I’m not sure what the cancellation policy is. The trip is sat 10/13. Any info or updates would b greatly appreciated!

  • stl78

    Yeah. Tush, I think u had some insight on the Amtrak trip a while back. Do u know what there cancellation policy is

    • IT,S BEEN A LONG TIME AGO…I,M NOT SURE(cancellations) ? Sorry, caps locked… Sat. afternoon/evening looks stormy,”possible severe/torn. watch…To early to say… But rain/wind is likely…

  • stl78

    Yeah, I see that. We will prob wait a couple more days to see how things progress. I think they have a cancellation fee of 10% after lookin at there website. Thanks for your response.

  • what about friday/friday night people?

  • Farmgirl

    I prefer Brett Anthony’s unpretentious Acorn theory. Kinda tired of the LRC browbeating blogs.

  • f00dl3

    Isn’t zonal flow the reason why we had such a warm winter last year? How is that different from last year’s LRC?

    • It seems there was alot of ridging over the western half of the U.S. this last year, blocking much of the gulf of mexico of its moisture…Hopefully,that wont be the case this year…

  • mukustink

    Good to be back in the USA. See the Chiefs still suck, imagine that. Gary you still glad you gave Hunt your money? I think that the fans who have season tickets and those that have bought tickets should boycott a game. Heck you can watch the game from the comfort of your own home and our favorite drinking hole. Imagine the message that would send to Hunt. The loss parking revenue and consessions as well as the empty seats on TV. Wake up KC and send a message. How long are you going to accept this crap from Hunt and the Chiefs?

    I agree with Farmgirl. Tired of the LRC since it seems to be useless as a forecast tool. I wouldn’t mind hearing about it all the time if it was a valualbe and ACCEPTED theory by the scientific community or mets. Heck it’s been a struggle to get a 24-48 hour forecast correct much less a 30-90 day forecast.

    • I heard Sun.,via Bill Maas tweeter,an hour before game time on the radio,that there was a banner out side of Arrowhead,that tickets were being sold for 5-20$…

  • Craig

    This is interesting as it is the first “official” mention of the sever potential for Saturday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

  • Kole Christian

    Rub a dub dub
    Let me remind you that I live in Missouri, so yes, it can change.
    And I’m sticking with 11/10/12 for our first inch

  • stl78

    Mu wife not digin severe threat. Plus, for the money would prefer decent weather.

  • stl78

    There is a large group of us goin

  • The 12z ECMWF has slowed the 500mb. low by 6hrs. for this weekends severe weather event,compared with the GFS,which makes sense considering the GFS is ussally faster w/cut-off lows…Other words, severe wx.in the metro/Mo.valley area Saturday!!! People should stay on guard for ALL MODES of severe weather…Have a good 1. :)

  • The 12z GEM(canadian)model is,also,in agreement w/ the EC

  • Can’t get too excited about this forecast. We have seen time and time again where the promise of rain is replaced with the actuality of a dry system blow through.

  • f00dl3

    Are we sure this storm is not a portion of the past pattern from 4/14?

  • stl78

    Tush. Thats easier said than done. There is a large group of us coming from 3 cities. Rescheduling would b difficult. Most trains are already booked for Oct. In fact, the cost of our train jumped by 100$ in a day bc it was gettin close to capacity

  • Inflowjet

    Apparently the LRC isn’t picking up on the higher end risk of severe weather on Saturday around here. Seems like everyone is picking up on it except for you Gary??? What gives? One of the best setups we have seen looks possible. Winds may veer a bit for a high end tornado threat but it could be a bit different if the system slows down.

  • goodlifegardens

    Garden City/Creighton We’re actually having a little shower from this front.

  • f00dl3

    I don’t necessarily buy the high end severe risk in Kansas City either. I think storms may fire up too much on Friday, cause us to have limited instability, and the main show fires over southwest Kansas mid-Saturday afternoon between Dodge City and Wichita and may end up falling apart before they get here Sunday during the early morning hours.

  • cornstalk

    I see I’m not the only one sick of the LRC. I very rarely come here anymore and thats why. Its worthless and a forecasting tool, and it hasn’t proven to have any validity at all.

  • rouyerd

    I am a first time poster, but this site is saved on my “favorites” page and has been for a few years now. The discussion about the LRC in the comments portion of nearly every post that Gary has on this blog seems to devolve into personal attacks on Gary. If you attack the LRC, you are attacking Gary. I don’t know how Gary has the stomach to continue trying to hold discussions regarding his forecasts with many of the regular commenters at this site. The lack of respect for each other and the scientific process only exposes one’s ignorance. Please treat each other with civility and have honest discussions regarding the forecasts.

    Gary, keep up the hard work. I believe the LRC has potential as a general forecasting tool. We’ve even seen the LRC be used to nail long range, specific forecasts like the Christmas Eve Blizzard 2 years ago. Gary, I appreciate all the effort you put in to your profession and all the charitable work you do, both of which make Kansas City a better place to live.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Obvious Severe weather is obvious on Saturday. Instability is rather skimpy but no question wind fields will be energized. Excellent speed shear with some hint at low level wind shear. Damaging winds a given with that profile. Tornado threat will all be dependent on the supercells ahead of the cold front.

    Of course the LRC could predict the Joplin Tornado so I think Gary should come out and say what the LRC is predicting this weekend and if any tornadoes will hit any cities so he can take credit for it.