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Weather Extremes & A Super Bowl Sunday Arctic Air Watch

Good morning bloggers,

This winter has been a fascinating season to watch unfold before our eyes.  It has featured rare snows across many southern cities to a growing drought centered around the Texas Panhandle.  The weather pattern is cycling according to our Cycling Pattern Hypothesis that was named by you, the bloggers, over 15 years ago as the LRC. I used to call it my theory, my hypothesis.  It became known by many of us as the LRC, but what it will be named some day is not important at all. What is important is that it may very well be the driving mechanism for what happens with weather across the Northern Hemisphere.  What is driving these extremes?  Could it be the weak La Niña?  The answer actually is highly likely this cycling pattern.  This years pattern is cycling in the 44 to 51 day range centered on around 47 days.  There were massive, devastating fires in California in cycles 1 and 2, in October and December.  And, it was nearly 90 degrees again yesterday in Los Angeles with offshore flow.  What is going to happen next across North America?  In yesterdays blog we showed how this weekend is lining up with early November, right on schedule.  What is going to happen in these next three weeks as we move through February?  A few Arctic blasts and I will share with you why in just a minute.

Weather Extremes from this season

  • Los Angeles is within two months of possibly ending up with its driest winter ever recorded.
  • Amarillo, TX has already smashed their all time longest dry spell with no rain measurable rain or snow, with today being the 109th day in a row without measurable precipitation.
  • Snow fell in the deep south multiple times

For Los Angeles to end up having the driest season ever, it will have to rain less than two more inches in the next 60 days. Since October 1st, it has rained only 1.89″ in downtown Los Angeles.   This is over 5″ below the average of around 7.10″ by now.  We are over half way through with the rainy season, so it could be close. Only one storm has hit Los Angeles directly, and it was a deadly storm that caused the mudslides in Ventura county where the worst fires were located in the previous two cycles of this pattern.

Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 9.37.24 PM

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As you can see, the fires seem to be cycling too, and this is not a coincidence. And, the conditions are becoming favorable once again.

Now what is going to happen next. I saw some tweets yesterday talking about some models forecasting a Polar Vortex in February. Do we really need those computer models that are more often wrong than right?  No, we already know that this next part of the pattern is due. Just look at this map from Christmas Eve:

Screen Shot 2018-01-30 at 12.01.47 AM

The pattern is cycling in the 44 to 51 day range. 44 days from December 24th is February 6th, and 51 days from Christmas Eve is February 13th. So, this is due back within two weeks.  How did this pattern leave parts of KC waiting for its first inch of snow until January 11th, when our snowflake contest finally ended with a 1 to 2 inch snowfall around KC?  It is somewhat baffling. We are now into Cycle 3 and the jet stream is reaching its peak strength now. I have noticed an interesting twist to the pattern once we get past peak jet stream in early February. Maybe, just maybe, something different is about to happen.

Weather Discussion:

Arctic Air Watch:  A major blast of Arctic air is likely two to three times in the next three weeks

And, yes, we saw the latest trend on the models for snow in KC. There are two systems now forecast by the last two GFS model runs, and they aren’t ten days out. They are just five and seven days away. Here is the 8-day snowfall forecast from the 00z GFS model run:

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Remember, Kansas City hasn’t had 3″ in one storm in four years. February 4th will complete four years in a row, or perhaps, maybe, could it possibly be that the streak will end right on that date!  We will go over the details in the comments section on the Weather2020 blog. We have been through this before, but as I said, something slightly different is possible as the jet stream reaches its peak strength.  The chances of snow are for Super Bowl Sunday, and then possibly a week from today as well.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there to join in on what should be a very interesting conversation in the next few days. Have a terrific Tuesday!  Think positive and enjoy the moment!

Gary

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