A respectable line of storms has formed now in Western Missouri. Here again, the model runs at 9p did not handle this at all. Matter of fact, the RPM Powercast I showed at 6p on air was actually pretty close to what’s going on now. That was one that I was unsure of because it seemed to be a bit aggressive, considering what was going on at the time.
This line will continue to slowly drift to the East. The storms on the North end have produce some hail. Last report was of hail near ping pong ball size around the Polo area. That will continue to be the threat tonight: hail. For many others in Missouri, it will be some noisy thunder.
This storm is tracking to the East right now, so heads up for those near Polo, Kingston, Braymer as this is headed your way.
I have been watching the radar for the last half hour or so. There seems to be a few storms organizing just a bit to the East and South of KC. If one or two of these continues to strengthen, hail near quarter size would be possible. While these storms won’t impact most of KC, other areas near I-35 could see more thunder/lightning and small hail. I will continue to monitor.
This may be it, folks. The cap in the atmosphere appears to have held in place to our Northwest. Here’s how the radar looks now…
All of this will slowly drift to the South & Southeast. No severe weather expected at all, but the thunder will continue to sound impressive.
Looking into Nebraska, you can there is not a cloud in the sky. No new development there, which means our chances to see something drift in overnight have greatly diminished. The “cap” wins this round.
The models poorly handled all of this today; the downside to leaning on them so much. But, computer technology is the highest it’s ever been for weather, so we do put a lot of confidence in them. And while the models are usually never “dead on”, they tend to give us a good enough idea. And the more you utilize various models, you begin to understand each one more and what kind of “bias” it has. Some will develop things too far North, others will favor convection more often. And then there are days where the models are clueless. Each time, however, it’s a learning lesson. This is why I caution those who look at ONE model and extrapolate a forecast from it. Plus it takes an understand of the models and all the layers to that model. Moreover, predicting the future is never easy!
That all said, we are still looking pretty warm (and humid) for Sunday. Find some A/C or a pool if you can!
Some isolated t-storms over the Metro area right now. Not severe but appear to be gaining a little bit of strength. I will continue to track them.
Despite this, the latest versions of the short-term forecast models are still indicating storms will blossom up. What is the hold up? I just checked the atmospheric sounding out of Topeka. This Skew-T chart speaks volumes:
The area I have circled is the cap we have in place. It would take a lot to explain all the things going on in this chart, but the basics here is that the temperature aloft is still pretty warm. Due to that, vertical development of air/clouds is halted.
Now that said, just above that cap we have tremendous energy available.
That spread in the two colored lines (red being temperature and blue being temperature of a parcel of air lifted from the surface of the Earth) indicated the amount of energy in the atmosphere. Commonly this is called CAPE. In this instance, we have over 3,000 joules per kilogram (J/kg)of CAPE. I know, I know… those last few sentences make about as much sense as: kweivna dsfweow ahfnvmpqb ndaubwbslqa. If you REALLY have the time and want to learn more about Skew-T charts (they are my guilty pleasure when it comes to weather), there is a great blog article here: http://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2011/10/how-to-read-skew-t-log-p.html
For now, I will continue to watch the radar. As the sun begins to go down, the cap usually starts to weaken. This could be the window of opportunity for storms to fire up. I know some may still have fireworks plans for tonight; personal displays or maybe a family gathering. We’ll continue to keep you updated so you know what to expect!
As expected, we had a round of rain and thunder storms move through portions of Northern Missouri this morning. That activity generally stayed North of I-70 and put down some decent rain amounts in a few area. Like I had mentioned Friday morning during our newscasts, I was concerned with seeing some locally heavy rainfall. In the last 24 hours, here are the reports via the NWS:
The rain has pretty much come to an end, but we’re not done yet for today…
You can see from the visible satellite picture above that most of Nebraska and Kansas are seeing sunshine. This is really heating up the atmosphere. Surface temperatures at 3p were already cooking.
Based off of this and the forecast information I have seen, I will be watching the Lincoln to Omaha area for storms to redevelop later this evening, after about 5:30p. If/when those storms get going, they should start to push to the South and Southeast. I believe there is a window for Kansas City to experience rain and thunderstorms later on tonight after about 9p.
The RPM model (designed for convection) is picking up on this, but I feel like it may be over-doing it a bit. This is what it is saying the radar will look like at 2:30a:
Again, I believe this might be a little aggressive, but I do believe there is a good chance we’ll see rain and storms in far Eastern Kansas. This would push to the South/Southeast through the night and be just to the South of our coverage area by early Sunday morning. While I am not expecting severe weather, given the massive amount of heat, I would not be surprised to see some strong outflow winds from the storms as they collapse.
We should stay in the 90s for Monday as well until another cold front drops in to knock us back into the 80s. But I don’t think we’ll have to wait long before the 90s return again.
I am working on all the forecast stuff as we speak and will have the latest during our 5, 6, & 10p newscasts tonight on 41 Action News. Should there be a need to update this blog more (due to radar, fresh information, etc), you know I will do so.
Hope you’re enjoying the holiday weekend.