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Warming Up Today, Thunderstorms Sunday

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system will be approaching us tonight and Sunday.  The front is timed to move through Sunday afternoon and evening and there is still some question on the exact timing. Right now I favor a slightly faster solution which would bring the front through KC around 4:30 PM Sunday.  Here is one Powercast we showed last night:

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There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight north and west of Kansas City:

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A weak stationary front is setting up near the Kansas/Nebraska border extending northeast into Iowa. This will be north of our local area this evening so any thunderstorm development will likely be north and way out to the west. Later tonight any thunderstorms that form west of Kansas City may organize and move east arriving later tonight into early Sunday morning.  And, then we will be watching the strong cold front approaching on Sunday which will overtake the stationary boundary. The conditions will become more favorable for heavy thunderstorms and a few could be severe. The most likely area for severe weather on Sunday is way to the south.

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And, here is the probabilistic forecast:

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Here is the NAM model surface forecast from the 06z (1 AM) model run.  Notice the wind shift/cold front is forecast to push southeast to where I drew in the cold front. If this is the case, then the precipitation would be heaviest behind the frontal zone and the thunderstorms would lose their warm and moist inflow, but the leading edge of the coldest air is really very close to Kansas City at this time. So, there will likely be a corridor of very heavy rain and thunderstorms situated between these two boundaries which should place us in prime position for heavy rain, but limited chance of severe. This is why there is only a slight risk with us on the northern edge.

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Farther south the risk is moderate as a result of the front interacting more with the warm and moist air, but even down there there are some questions.

And, there is still some potential for some snow as the cold air rushes in. Let’s see how the models trend today.

Have a great day and we will try to update the blog later this afternoon or evening. Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

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64 comments to Warming Up Today, Thunderstorms Sunday

  • AW

    Does your powercast do totals? I’ve been getting conflicting amounts. Some as low as a half inch, some as high as 2 inches. I notice this storm system is doing exactly what I said.

  • Dobber

    What about Peter and batmans snow mon morning Gary?

  • f00dl3

    NAM has been right all winter. It’s giving the metro 2-4″ of snow, with 5″ totals near Lawrence.

    • Drought Miser

      Yes the Nam has been our winning model for most of the winter and this storm is really starting to wined up I hope it snows enough to at least knock this pollen counts down!!!

  • Henley

    What’s the Torcon Values? That’s always a valuable piece of the puzzle….

  • batman

    Mr. Gary I have a question. Who are the american scientist you refered to in your press release?

    Torcon values I know your kidding Henley. Those are just as good as wetting the old finger and sticking it up in the air!

    No snow of any significance. Pow Plunk Boom.

    • luvsno

      O. M. G.
      batman you need to get off of Gary’s back about the scientist.
      Do you think he has not seen your posts ? He has no intention of answering.
      Come on, give it a rest.
      Sometimes you do have some interesting thoughts about the weather.

      Come on rain, we need you ! Another windy day, of course. The wind has been relentless this year. All part if this year’s LRC..now we get the warm wind vs the cold wind.
      Oh, wait…….we always have windy days here, don’t we ! Except during heat waves.

      • batman

        When Gary tell sme who the scientist are I will stop asking. If Gary admits that there are no scientist and he made a “mistake” then I will stop asking. Sorry I demand the truth from the media and their press releases.

        • Fredd

          Jack Nicholson everybody….he “demands” the truth.

          I demand that you just admit your MUKU…I demand you admit you have too much time on your hands and spend too much time on a weather blog.

          I demand it.

        • chris

          So after accusing gary of lying i think the only fair thing to do is when all the research is done and he can actually comment on this matter and give us the info that you so desperately can not live without is you leave the blog forever

  • AW

    TorCon today: 3 in Northern Kansas. 2-3 near Nebraska-Iowa Border.
    Tomorrow: 2-3 south of Kansas city. 4 for Texas, Oklahmona, Arkansas, Southern Missouri. I would like 2-4 inches of snow to be correct.

    • Drought Miser

      I’m glad the tor con levels are on the low side we don’t need that stuff here well anywhere nobody wants those save for maybe out in a open field for the researchers. ..

    • mgsports

      The Torcon page is still as of last night and with a MD will go hirer for OK.

  • stl78

    Headed to temple texas for work in the morning. Should b an interesting drive. I avoided a tornado touchdown a week n a half ago in Denton Texas!

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    What time should we be expecting storms here in St. Joe?

  • mowermike

    Event #1 of this very wet spring setting up:

    For those of you that have forgotten, I have 10 rain gauges set-up on 10 of my properties that my company takes care of. These gauges are 8″ digital gauges and are fed into a data base that I retrieve here at my office. Why? We have to keep track of rainfall for these properties because they want us to use the irrigation systems only as needed and not carelessly like many properties do around the city. This is going to be important down the line as our country and local cities continue to grow, water supply will become a problem. Almost every new neighborhood that goes in and commercial property automatically has irrigation installed.

    Anyhow, here is what the first event did on April 2-4th.

    1-29 and Barry Road: (Platte county) .62 inches
    152 and Indiana: (western Clay county) .78 inches
    435 and 96th street: (Clay county) .77 inches
    NKC(1 mile north of Downtown(S. Clay) .64 inches
    I35 and 95th street(Johnson county KS.) 1.43 inches
    I70 and 27th street(Jackson county Mo.) 2.12 inches
    1-70 and Little Blue Parkway)(Independence) 1.45 inches
    119th and Roe (Leawood KS. (Johnson county KS) 1.68 inches
    I35 and the Holt exit(Clinton county) 1.45 inches
    69HWY and 135th(Overland Park) 1.54 inches

    Now, the next of a series of storm systems will affect us this spring starting tonight, relax people, wet weather will not be a problem this year. Rain gauges, start your engines!!! This pattern will have plenty of heavy rain set-ups. Who will get lucky, will it be KC, or will it be St.Joe, or will it be Central MO. We’ll know by this coming Dec. when the snows start flying again.(however, if the NAM is right, the snow may fly sooner than that…)

    • RickMckc

      Wow, Mike, that’s pretty cool. Do you have a business website?

      • mowermike

        Hey Rick,

        Email Gary, he can give you my email address, or he can give me yours. We can talk from there.

        • batman

          Rick the website is “http://lawn-landscapingkc.com/”. His email address is on the site. Have a hopefully wet Sunday!

          • Joe

            Ed…Do you really want to post others personal info? E.J.H…hazlewood 83…want your e-mail, address and phone? If Mike wants his email posted, he will provide it. You go too far for a man of your age

    • Mike,

      I just posted a Weather2020 blog, http://www.weather2020.com/spring-thunderstorms-winter-snow-within-a-few-hours/

      Check it out. This is one of the storm systems we have had in the weather forecast for this weekend for over 90 days now. We will see thunderstorms, and possibly snow! Wow!

      Gary

    • Hume-Dude

      MMike – I love your commitment to the wet spring ahead, however, I have nothing but rainfall deficits where I am at. Most of the systems have underperformed, so I don’t see why this storm will be different, regardless of the data indicating otherwise. We will know by this time tomorrow , I am hoping you are right!

      • This storm may produce, but the wild card is what will this pattern be in May and June. I am expecting one week dry periods, but there should be enough opportunity for at least average rainfall. I would favor it as 60% chance of average rainfall in April, May and June. And a 20% on either side of that.

        Gary

      • mowermike

        Hume-dude

        Where are you located at? Sorry if you have mentioned this before.

        • Hume-Dude

          Farm is near Hume, Mo , house is in shawnee, ks. seem to have done better here in Kc, the energy seems to trail off by the time gets down south. Also very difficult to get accurate rainfall totals down there, no official station nearby and everyone’s rain gauge seems to get something different. Farm is way down there so I represent the southern extreme of the viewing area, right I between KC and Joplin so we tune into both and average out the forecast, it keeps me on my toes

    • Drought Miser

      I like the rain gages update keep Em coming !!!

  • Jeff in St. Joe

    Warm and muggy up here. Will be interesting to see if any storms fire.

  • Emaw

    Hook up the plows!

    • mowermike

      EMAW,

      Yikes, the Royals are looking the same as the past few years. Also, Shields got lit up today. He is suppose to be our best pitcher.

  • f00dl3

    18z backing off on snow. Even when it does snow, if you look at the IWM snow depth maps it only shows max 1/2″ in KC while 2″ may fall.

  • Emaw

    f00dl3,
    The 18z must be an outlier, 6-10 all the way.

  • Emaw

    Mike I know, they give up homeruns but cant hit any and if their pitching fails them we could be in for a long year as inept as the offense looks right now.

  • mgsports

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif MD know includes part of Southern MO and 30′ percent near by.

  • Drought Miser

    I’m looking forward to the update and possibly upped rainfall amounts when the warm front went through Illinois , boy or boy did the get hammered by hail Cantore tweeted plow able hail…. this storm means business folks let’s by ready!!!

  • batman

    The Royals are like the american scientist, no where to be found! Going to be a long year again for Royals fans.

    Hopefully we will get some nice rains tomorrow but then again we are in KC!

    Mowermike do your raingauges say recalcualting, recalculating. The one at I70 and Little Blue pkwy may need to be recalculated. I don’t think there was close to 1.5 inches of rain. The new QT is going up there and the total at the site was .75.

    • Dobber

      Hey Bruce….. What are you talking about?

    • Joe

      Ed,

      Not sure if you are just doing your typical prodding on Mike however, I dont live far from you as I am in Eastern Jackson County and I recorded just shy of 2 inches of rain. …And although it is too early to tell, I am worried about the Royals as well

  • mgsports

    Storms are starting to fire in KS.

  • Emaw

    Some storms firing to our north and west, let’s hope it turns into a line and rolls through.

  • Emaw

    Dew point right now 56, I’d like to see that rise.

  • mgsports

    On Thursday East KS has 10 percent chance of seeing a Tornado at the moment.

  • trinlivco

    Gary & Mowermike, Hope you guys are right about wet weather this year. The dome is still in place around the Chillicothe area. Really hope this drought ends soon. If it doesnt this summer will be really bad. Hoping for some big rains tonight and tomorrow in our area. TR

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm there are Severe thunderstorms in the immediate Metro should we be concerned or just another wolf call???

  • Joe

    Mowermike, does your company service residential yards South of the river? Im about ready to kick my current provider to the curb and since my original lawn guy moved, cant seem to find a company that actually develops a relationship with the homeowner and cares what the lawn looks like

  • melafinatu

    Gary,

    I’m fascinated and hopeful to see the lunar eclipse(blood moon) Mon night/Tues morning. Will we have clear skies to view this?

    Derek

  • mgsports

    The Fox station says bear 80′ if get clearing before front comes thru so might change Tornado’s to like maybe Moderate.

  • Kcchamps

    just throwin this out there…..

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042″

    NAM snow map

  • Hockeynut69

    Round 1 = poof!

  • Nate

    So has this thing gone Poof?

    • AW

      Thursday night GFS says 5-10 inches of the white stuff. Of course this is still days away but if this comes true it’ll be historic.