Good morning bloggers,
A storm system will be approaching us tonight and Sunday. The front is timed to move through Sunday afternoon and evening and there is still some question on the exact timing. Right now I favor a slightly faster solution which would bring the front through KC around 4:30 PM Sunday. Here is one Powercast we showed last night:
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight north and west of Kansas City:
A weak stationary front is setting up near the Kansas/Nebraska border extending northeast into Iowa. This will be north of our local area this evening so any thunderstorm development will likely be north and way out to the west. Later tonight any thunderstorms that form west of Kansas City may organize and move east arriving later tonight into early Sunday morning. And, then we will be watching the strong cold front approaching on Sunday which will overtake the stationary boundary. The conditions will become more favorable for heavy thunderstorms and a few could be severe. The most likely area for severe weather on Sunday is way to the south.
And, here is the probabilistic forecast:
Here is the NAM model surface forecast from the 06z (1 AM) model run. Notice the wind shift/cold front is forecast to push southeast to where I drew in the cold front. If this is the case, then the precipitation would be heaviest behind the frontal zone and the thunderstorms would lose their warm and moist inflow, but the leading edge of the coldest air is really very close to Kansas City at this time. So, there will likely be a corridor of very heavy rain and thunderstorms situated between these two boundaries which should place us in prime position for heavy rain, but limited chance of severe. This is why there is only a slight risk with us on the northern edge.
Farther south the risk is moderate as a result of the front interacting more with the warm and moist air, but even down there there are some questions.
And, there is still some potential for some snow as the cold air rushes in. Let’s see how the models trend today.
Have a great day and we will try to update the blog later this afternoon or evening. Let us know if you have any questions.