Quantcast

Warming up today & a look ahead to our next chance of snow!

Good morning bloggers,

A storm continues to show up in our area around one week from tomorrow.  We will go over the details below.  Someone got creative in Oklahoma City Tuesday. Francis Leenders sent me this picture. Look how they used an entire yard’s worth of snow to make this snow dinosaur:

1

 

Yesterday I asked if you think it will snow again this season.  I said yes it will and I was confident and still am confident that this good chance will arrive later next week.  The part of the LRC that brought us snow on New Year’s Eve will be cycling back through next week.

1You can click on either of the next two maps for a larger view.  This map shows the 500 mb chart from New Year’s Eve. This comes from cycle 2 of this year’s LRC and is related to the same part of the pattern around November 10th where there was also a similar trough swinging through the southwestern states.  This is one of the few storm systems that has brought our area some accumulating snow this season.

2This next map show the 500 mb forecast from the 06 GFS model run.   The models have been very consistent in bringing this next trough into the west coast very similarly to what happened in the past two cycles.  A cold air mass is also forecast to be in place or at least very close by as this storm swings out into the plains later next week. in December the snow producing wave weakened as it approached Kansas City, but it held together long enough to bring us some snow.

3

This surface forecast map above shows the potential snow making storm in our area next Thursday. It still appears to be a short window of opportunity for snow, but the models have at least been consistent. It fits the LRC (LRC Blog) and we are still in peak snow season but time will be running out within a few weeks for snow lovers.

At least we have something to track in the coming days. And, there is a lead storm ahead of this one early in the week that has some potential to bring a fairly quick band of precipitation as well.  Have a great morning and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog. Perhaps it will get rather exciting next week.

Gary

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

41 comments to Warming up today & a look ahead to our next chance of snow!

  • mattmaisch

    Gary,

    Work on getting this map to verify. That’s all I’m asking at this point! :)

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013021300&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=216″

    Have a good one..

    Matt

  • yewtrees

    “Yesterday I asked if you think it will snow again this season. I said yes it will and I was confident and still am confident..”. Gary, this was not what you said yesterday. “Even though I said it will snow next week, my confidence level is still shaky..”

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    You mention how everything fits the LRC, but even as of today, the LRC forecast for Kansas City for this week is as follows:

    Forecast made December 29, 2012: Weather 2020 is forecasting the part of the weather pattern, that produced a blizzard across parts of this region in a past cycle, will be returning this week. So, we are forecasting a major snowstorm and potential blizzard that will likely impact parts of Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska. Kansas City will likely see snow or a cold rain early in the week, and possibly later in the week as well. But, that second storm may affect areas farther south like Joplin and Wichita or even farther south than this if it does exactly what it did in the last cycle. We expect it to be a bit farther north this time. Arctic air will be near by so expect below average temperatures and above average precipitation.

    You expected below average temperatures and above average precipitation…yet we’re seeing above average temperatures and below average precipiation this week. And there’s some light snow well to our south, but you predicted it’d be “farther north this time” with a blizzard impacting KS, NE, and IA.

    You feel everything “fits” the LRC and that this forecast is legitimate?

    • Jerry,

      If you remember, a blizzard developed over the northern plains Sunday, which was this week. This storm split into two with the second part going farther south and it did affect Joplin and and just south of Wichita. We all know, and I have explained how we are just not in the right spot. And, it could happen again next week where something goes wrong. But, that forecast made a long time ago was pretty close. Arctic air did retreat north. My forecasts won’t be 100% accurate.

      When I say it fits the LRC, I am talking about the weather pattern. Making forecasts off of this weather pattern is just as challenging as making a forecast for sometime next week based on the computer models. We believe our forecasts can be just as accurate as a five to seven day forecast.

      Gary

  • Wow, talk about splitting hairs! lol

  • heavysnow

    12z Euro showing a lot of snow in Missouri next week

  • GFS does blast us on Thurs… But we’ve seen this movie before. This time it more aligns with the LRC, and the Euro’s in the game too. Fingers crossed for one good storm before winter’s done.

  • Theo

    Gary, the map says “GFS Surface Forecast Valid Noon December 21st”. If that is the correct map, your LRC doesn’t fit. I think you meant February 21st.

  • Can the LRC change? It has cycled perfectly in Colorado twice but, this last cycle has changed. Both the Euro and the American GFS show an active weather pattern throughout the month. Looks like relief from the drought.

  • f00dl3

    Time’s a runnin out for that good 5″ snow.

  • mattmaisch

    12Z GFS pushes next week’s storm well to the north of KC. Long way out, but that would certainly follow suit with what we’ve seen during the rest of the winter.

  • luvsno

    Is the GFS map above (next Thursday)showing snow in Louisiana ?? (top of the boot….Shreveport) If so, and if it happens, our granddaughter who lives there will be SO excited. She loves snow, and rarely gets a chance to see any, even when she is here….always here at the wrong time.

  • rred95

    Seems like storms this year have us in the bullseye initailly but then shift away from us. But we cant ever get one to shift over us when it was initailly over nothern plains or southern plains, KC is in a dreadful spot to receive snow this year.

  • FARMERMIKE

    SO BY THE MAP ABOVE LOOKS LIKE NC KANSAS COULD SEE SOME GOOD SNOW
    ANYBODY GOT AN IDEA HOW MUCH IF THIS STORM STAYS ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK

    • mattmaisch

      The latest version shows no snow for anyone in Kansas or Missouri at any point during the next 16 days. In regards to next week’s potential, this one run doesn’t mean a whole lot, but right now it is projected to go well to the north of our area. We shall see though. New EMCWF will be out soon.

      • sedsinkc

        More of the same old same old. A promising storm 1 week out misses us. You’re right, it’s just 1 run. GFS may oscillate back and forth on storm track for a few days before settling down into a more accurate forecast path.

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif” 12 z GFS shows solid system approaching KS area on the 21st.

        Here is the current track a few hours later.
        “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_500_vort_ht.gif”

        The track of the storm still has KC under the bullseye.

        • mattmaisch

          Take a look at the QPF for the period. It indicates less than a tenth of an inch of moisture. It’s a far different solution than what we saw this morning. Not that it matters this far out, but it is different for sure.

  • mattmaisch

    For the record, the 12Z ECMWF has a much different solution than the GFS. It still pushes the storm off to our north, but puts the center much closer to KC and indicates a stronger storm than the GFS does as well. Long way to go. At least there appears to be a good chance of a storm in the middle of the country.

  • FARMERMIKE

    OK SO HOPEFULLY WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOMETHING
    IF IT DOES HIT THIS AREA ANY GUESS ON HOW MUCH??????

  • Dobber

    What’s the storm for early week looking like?

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Well the 18Z GFS shows a band of moisture coming thru around midnight of the 14-15. Now how much will depend on track. Right now most is off to our east.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Dobber. No storm per se just shows a quick chance of passing snow or rain from north. Nothing huge I can see so far.

  • kcendo

    Gary,
    Don’t look now, but there are currently storms in 2 of your “hot spots” on the LRC winter outlook…I think. I am going off of memory because I can’t find your winter forecast for reference.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    18z GFS is promising. Moisture totals are good and temps are right. Track of storm is good. Ready for it all to fall apart between now and then. The doom and gloom of winter in KC.

    • R-Dub

      Here, I’ll get the doom and gloom started..off hour model run, when in drought leave it out, etc. But if the euro model shows some promise, that’s a good sign.

    • mattmaisch

      Track is close by, but too far to bring any snow to KC. The GFS is bullish on pushing the snow up near I-80. No measurable snow for us once again on this run.

      • sedsinkc

        From just after hour 192 to after hour 204 KC is in a window of snowfall on the 18z GFS. Just N of KC is in the snow before hour 192. Granted the big snows are up along the I-80 corridor, but there is potential around KC for the usual 1 to 2 or 3 inch snowfall with the most on the north side. On this GFS run. Which will change. I think the end result will be that the storm will trend far enough north that KC will get missed because that’s been the trend all winter.

  • weather

    Gary I didn’t understand your comment to Jerry where you said “But, that forecast made a long time ago was pretty close. Arctic air did retreat north. My forecasts won’t be 100% accurate.” The whole “pitch” on your weather 2020 site is that you can get “ACCURATE” forecast for future events. The forecast Jerry refered to was in the time frame of your own stated capabilities on the 2020 site. I guess we need to know what your definition of accurate is in terms of your long range forecast. I’m really not trying to pick on you just trying to understand your statements. I mean you are the one making the claims so I hope you understand.

    Next weeks possible storm will be fun to watch. Fun watching it go further and further away lol. I know Gary hopes it snows he needs 2 at least before the end of the month!

  • Dobber

    Champs, what’s it saying!

  • mmack66

    Got a pretty good dusting going on here in Riverside. Been snowing for about 30 minutes.