Good morning bloggers,
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. There were a few sprinkles/light rain showers, rainbows, and some pretty nice weather this past weekend. A gradual warming trend begins today with temperatures warming back into the 90s this week. Rain chances will continue to be quite low with nothing really significant showing up.
The above rainfall forecast map shows, once again, how it is going to be a struggle to get any wide spread rain in here during the next 15 days. Hopefully something will begin changing soon, but looking at this weather pattern I just don’t see it for a while. This map, above, shows us in around 1 inch of rain, but that is total over the entire 15 days. So, if the one chance misses us later this week, as has been the case for months now, then we will be waiting deep into September.
Have a great start to the week. I am going to Boston Tuesday. The AMS Broadcast conference begins Wednesday. The weather team will keep you updated. I will be checking in from time to time and updating my trip on Facebook and Twitter.
Gary
Well, yesterday George mentioned a “Good Soaking” on Thursday night, what happened to that?
He also said “Take this information with caution, as we’ll need a few factors to line up.”
It was wild to hear Brett say this morning that August temps are actually BELOW average – what a refreshing break it has been.
What do you make of this month’s temps turning out essentially opposite from what you called for in your August LRC forecast , Gary?
If I remember right, you targetted the 14th of August for our best shot at a heat wave that would rival the hottest temps ever recorded in KC (113 degrees) …and August 14th turned out to be cloudy with some rain and temps didn’t even get out of the 70s in many parts of the viewing area.
How do you explain both a forecast of 113 and then a reality of below-normal temps could both fit your theory?
I asked this same question last week. The response was it was hot in Oklahoma, just didnt quite get here.
Jerry,
It’s heating up now. Perhaps I should have seen the cool down we just experienced. I thought it would happen for a few days, but didn’t really forecast it well. It is going to heat up significantly in the next couple of weeks. It is so dry that the low temperatures have been dropping to get that August average down.
Gary
Until I see a forecast for a 100% chance of rain in the next 24 hours, I’m going to ignore all the rest. Anything less always amounts to nothing.
I’m with you greek!!! I see the NWS again has decent chances of rain down the road…but they did the same thing last week and look at what happened…zilch!!!!
Though Gary is the best on daily to 2 or 3 days out forcasts, I do think he has had a rough several months on the long range forcasts, as I too was remembering him saying August would rival KC hottest temps ever recorded. However no one else predicted a cool August either.
I asked last week what the longest period of drought has been in the past and although Gary may have answered that question, I was unable to follow up on the information. I did ask the same question of
Pat Guinan
State Climatologist
University of Missouri Extension/Commercial Agriculture
and this was his responds:
“The mother of all multi-year droughts to impact Missouri was a 5-year period from 1952-56. During this period, the Show Me State accumulated an incredible precipitation deficit of more than 4 feet, or, to be exact, 48.09 inches below normal. An amazing 75% of the months, during this 5-year period, reported below normal precipitation and 1953 ranks as Missouri’s driest year on record with a statewide annual average of 25.35 inches.”
Also, I liked something that Gary had posted in his blog when he was forecasting a chance of rain several weeks ago, he said “When in drought, leave it out”. I think that is the mindset that we need to have right now when it comes to a “chance of rain”.
Thanks, Sheryl3. That’s really interesting.
Does anyone know what our rain deficit is so far this year?
As of today, 11.65 inch deficit at KCI and 12.41 inch deficit at Johnson County Executive Airport. At KCI, we’ve had 55% of average (normal) rainfall for the year and from June 1 to today we’ve had 30% of average (normal) rainfall.
Thanks, Seds. Those numbers would have us on track to match that historical drought if our drought lasted another 4 years. Scary to even think about.
Well…there goes the Global Warming Theory. Sorry…couldn’t resist!
So I figured I would click on Gary’s facebook thing on the right of the page and what do I see but a picture of him shirtless working out. Really? Why would you put that picture on there? Maybe you should do the weather topless with those guns and chest you may up viewership
. Then again maybe not 
Maybe less time hitting the weights and more time on the “theory” you may be able to fine tune it into a usefull forecast tool.
Working on all of the above! But, no less working out. I must keep pushing.
Have a great week. It sounds like we all need a break. I will be back later next week.
Gary, when you go to these elementary schools,do you take your shirt off???
Are you a FLASHER!!!
MU,Are you GAY!!!
Whoo Hoo!!! LLTI!!!!! Lett’s hope Gary’s leaving town does something for our weather.. one can only hope… Gary.. if it rains while you’re gone perhaps you should extend your trip by a few weeks or so…
Oppressive heat is over, even if we do have some afternoon highs in the 90′s it won’t feel that bad because the air is bone dry (desert like) and overnights will continue to cool off nicely especially as daylight shortens. Billy Joe said it’s so dry down on the farm they’re startin’ to run outta udder cream for the teets.
This has been quite the year, for everyone! In NC it has actually been a below average summer temp wise as well as the rainiest year since I left KC in ’09. It has really started to cool down the past two weeks during the day…the nights are still too moist to drop too much but CLT hasnt even hit 90 since August 6th. That is a long time for these parts! The high temp has been in the 70′s the past couple days.
The humidity and tropical downpours have me feeling like I am back in FLA though. That being said, as Rdub mentioned the other day, we are in fact in a winter-type pattern here. Interesting!