Good morning bloggers,
Welcome to the second week of 2013. A storm is approaching this week and we will discuss the details of this complex weather pattern below. I would first like to say that I have been in contact with our moderators of this blog and it has been cleaned up with some bloggers banned that have not followed the rules of the blog. My goal is to make this a fun place for us to share weather information and our exciting weather. We are trying to provide a place where we can explain the weather developments and open it up for constructive criticism and discussion. But, we will not tolerate any personal attacks of any other blogger. Here are the rules again:
- The comments should be limited to the discussion topics of the day
- No personal attacks are allowed
- If you mention a competitor please mention them by saying “another station said”
As I said, we have cleaned up the blog and we will be monitoring it closely to maintain a positive atmosphere. Okay, thank you for listening and now let’s discuss this interesting weather pattern.
A storm is approaching us this week. Right now it is dropping deep into the southwestern states and into northern Mexico. It is falling into a position that will track directly towards us by Wednesday night and Thursday morning:
The main jet stream is tracking across the northern United States for the first couple of days of the week which will allow for a moderation of the cold air that has been in place. Temperatures will likely reach 50° for the first time this year, and as Sedsinkc stated, it has been 20 days since our last 50.
The upper low is going to get kicked out into the plains by Wednesday night and it is forecast to head directly towards us. This next map shows a forecast valid Wednesday night as the upper low moves into northern Texas. A storm digging down the west coast is kicking this lead system out.
On this next forecast map on the right, you can see that by Thursday morning the upper low is forecast to eject out right over Kansas City. The models have been only forecasting light rainfall amounts, however. It would be nice to get a good soaking from this system as it is going to be grabbing a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The kicking system is diving down the west coast and it is the next system that will influence our weather later in the week.
The digging storm is forecast to carve out this positively tilted trough. When this part of the weather pattern returns in the spring it will likely produce a severe weather set-up in our area, but all it is going to do for us in this cycle is drag a strong cold front across the area this weekend with possibly a few showers. The snow would likely be well to the north unless this looks significantly different than what this model has been showing. Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid Sunday Night:
This next map shows a rather big trough, but it is still not a functional storm for our area. All it is going to do is blow a rather strong cold front through our area this weekend. There is a Polar Vortex forming way up north across northern Canada. Eventually we may have our first true Arctic blast of the season, but we are not expecting that until later in the month and into the first two weeks of February when the storm systems become more likely to produce some snow again. Expect this to arrive between January 25th and February 20th for three weeks of active stormy weather. Our biggest storm of the season is likely in that three week stretch. Certainly the United States will be having some big storm systems, and two or three of them will impact our area beginning later in the month. In the mean time we just have this one wet system later this week and then mostly a dry cold front.
A strong cold front will be pushing it’s way into the eastern seaboard by early next week leaving us cold and dry. This next map is a forecast of the total precipitation for the next 192 hours:
As you can see above, we are forecast to have around 0.25″ to 0.50″ and mostly from the first storm on Wednesday night into Thursday. We still have to monitor Thursday’s storm closely for higher amounts, but the heaviest precipitation, and it’s a lot, is forecast to track across eastern Texas, Arkansas, into southeastern Missouri.
Have a great morning. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this developing weather pattern on 41 Action News.
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