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Warmer Week With Some Rain

Good morning bloggers,

Welcome to the second week of 2013.  A storm is approaching this week and we will discuss the details of this complex weather pattern below.  I would first like to say that I have been in contact with our moderators of this blog and it has been cleaned up with some bloggers banned that have not followed the rules of the blog.  My goal is to make this a fun place for us to share weather information and our exciting weather.  We are trying to provide a place where we can explain the weather developments and open it up for constructive criticism and discussion.  But, we will not tolerate any personal attacks of any other blogger.  Here are the rules again:

  • The comments should be limited to the discussion topics of the day
  • No personal attacks are allowed
  • If you mention a competitor please mention them by saying “another station said”
As I said, we have cleaned up the blog and we will be monitoring it closely to maintain a positive atmosphere.  Okay, thank you for listening and now let’s discuss this interesting weather pattern.
A storm is approaching us this week. Right now it is dropping deep into the southwestern states and into northern Mexico. It is falling into a position that will track directly towards us by Wednesday night and Thursday morning:
The main jet stream is tracking across the northern United States for the first couple of days of the week which will allow for a moderation of the cold air that has been in place.  Temperatures will likely reach 50° for the first time this year, and as Sedsinkc stated, it has been 20 days since our last 50.
The upper low is going to get kicked out into the plains by Wednesday night and it is forecast to head directly towards us.  This next map shows a forecast valid Wednesday night as the upper low moves into northern Texas. A storm digging down the west coast is kicking this lead system out.
On this next forecast map on the right, you can see that by Thursday morning the upper low is forecast to eject out right over Kansas City.  The models have been only forecasting light rainfall amounts, however. It would be nice to get a good soaking from this system as it is going to be grabbing a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  The kicking system is diving down the west coast and it is the next system that will influence our weather later in the week.
The digging storm is forecast to carve out this positively tilted trough.  When this part of the weather pattern returns in the spring it will likely produce a severe weather set-up in our area, but all it is going to do for us in this cycle is drag a strong cold front across the area this weekend with possibly a few showers. The snow would likely be well to the north unless this looks significantly different than what this model has been showing.  Take a look at the 500 mb flow valid Sunday Night:
This next map shows a rather big trough, but it is still not a functional storm for our area. All it is going to do is blow a rather strong cold front through our area this weekend.  There is a Polar Vortex forming way up north across northern Canada.  Eventually we may have our first true Arctic blast of the season, but we are not expecting that until later in the month and into the first two weeks of February when the storm systems become more likely to produce some snow again. Expect this to arrive between January 25th and February 20th for three weeks of active stormy weather. Our biggest storm of the season is likely in that three week stretch.  Certainly the United States will be having some big storm systems, and two or three of them will impact our area beginning later in the month.  In the mean time we just have this one wet system later this week and then mostly a dry cold front.
A strong cold front will be pushing it’s way into the eastern seaboard by early next week leaving us cold and dry. This next map is a forecast of the total precipitation for the next 192 hours:
As you can see above, we are forecast to have around 0.25″ to 0.50″ and mostly from the first storm on Wednesday night into Thursday. We still have to monitor Thursday’s storm closely for higher amounts, but the heaviest precipitation, and it’s a lot, is forecast to track across eastern Texas, Arkansas, into southeastern Missouri.
Have a great morning. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this developing weather pattern on 41 Action News.
Gary
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38 comments to Warmer Week With Some Rain

  • I don’t know.. Seems the GFS has this wks storm losing some punch every run. Been a frustrating couple of weeks! Hopefully this one holds together so we get the beneficial moisture.

  • Dobber

    what’s next week looking like? Cold gonna stick around?

  • mowermike

    What about the 6z run of the NAM. Looks a lot wetter.

    What about clipper type snows once the cold air does set-up. From the looks of the last few GFS runs, lots of cold air predicted.

    • Dobber

      A couple 1-2 inch storms in the coming weeks would be great! Anything beats last year.

    • Mike,

      I don’t see any clippers this season, but I hope I am wrong. This pattern just hasn’t supported it yet. And, yes, I am hoping a wetter solution sets up for this week. The storm takes a track that should bring us an inch of rain. I will hopefully add this to the forecast if it trends in that direction.

  • Is anyone tracking soil temps to know whether the rain will just run off frozen ground or be able to move into the soil structure.

    • That’s a good thought, Bob. We’ve been stuck in this drought pattern but any precip we get has to get into the ground to do us much good.

      What is an ideal ground temp for water absorption? My guess is we’ll still be frozen a few inches down come this storm system.

    • mowermike

      Bob,

      Did talk to a few contrators that were still installing trees in the ground on Friday last week, they mentioned a 4 inch frost line where the ground was open during the cold weather. Where it had snow cover longer, likely less of a frost line. We should lose the frost line this week except for the north and east facings.

  • sedsinkc

    The drought continues, but we’ll take what we can get. As mowermike and others discussed, what’s even better is the warmup we’re having for a few days before the rain arrives, which will allow more of it to soak into the soil.
    I commented on this over the weekend, but what does everyone think of NWS lowering the snowfall from last Monday’s event from 2.1 to 1.2 inches at KCI, thus giving us only 3.7 inches of snow for the season? I queried NWS Pleasant Hill on the matter over the weekend. Their response stated the KCI observers “inadvertently tallied” the snowfall as 2.1 inches instead of 1.2 inches.

    • rred95

      1.2 inches at kci seems more in line to me. I had about an 1″ in liberty. It was kinda of confusing with alot of it melting on some surfaces and other surfaces it was accumulating.

    • blueflash

      Goes to show you that in spite of all our advances in technology, we are still subject to human error. I guess my method of walking around the yard with a measuring stick isn’t so outdated after all!

  • Thanks Mike,

    I did run down some published numbers by K-State, with the closest site measured being in Ottawa. The latest information from them was for the last week of the year and their numbers said a 30 degree average at the 4″ mark.

    Not much else information was provided so don’t know if they are talking open field, which I suspect is the case, or a residential area. Also no mention was made of the type of soil and I know there is some pretty sandy areas in that part of Kansas.

  • Dwight

    What would need to happen for the Wednesday event to be snow? How could it set up where the cold air moves in sooner?
    I know it has happened before when a rain event turned out to be snow and caught people by surprise.

    • R-Dub

      There’s no cold air to move in with this system…so it can’t move in sooner. Sometimes storms get so strong and wound up that they can create their own cold air, but I don’t think this one is strong enough. Really, there is no chance of snow whatsoever from this system.

    • Dwight,

      As RDUB stated there is no chance of snow from this system. This is dropping way down into Mexico and warmer air is being drawn in ahead of it. It would take a strong cold front to move through before the storm arrived for it to snow from this system. And, that is not going to happen.

  • The South facing slope has thawed in my Parkville garden. The bamboo is able to move water and looks as good as ever. I even have iris, daffodils, and snowdrops in bloom. Of course we need moisture be it rain or snow.

  • RickMckc

    Even though we won’t get much precip, it’s a good thing to see 5+ falling through such a huge area to our south. Maybe if the soil moisture begins to increase in areas to our west and south, some of these systems will produce more for us.

  • hippygoth

    Maybe it’s my imagination, even though we’re slightly up on snow, and the temps seem cooler, this Winter only seems mnarginally more exciting than last years Winter. I know we have a ways to go, but so far, only the models have been exciting. Last weeks snow shouldve been exciting, but with thge mild temps, it’s disappeared already. :/

    H.

  • HeatMiser

    Boring, boring, boring, boring, boring, boring, boring, BORING!

    Let me know when a good snow storm is headed our way, and not 2-3 inch little wussy storms like the last two. so far this winter is resembling last winter pretty closely, except we’ve had a couple of wee little storms early instead of late this winter.

  • west shawnee

    Gary

    Do you think its possible to get an inch out of this system this week?

  • Hillsdale_Bruce

    I’m glad I stumbled across the blog “today” as I haven’t been that much of a regular visitor for several months now. Going to miss George – anyone heard about any timeframe for a replacement weatherperson?

    Thanks for the Blog!

    • Bruce,

      Welcome back! It will likely take a couple of months to find a new weather person.

      And, new data has some snow on Sunday, no confidence yet.

      Gary

  • Kcchamps

    lates GFS has snow for us for sunday!

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_147_1000_500_thick.gif”

  • Emaw

    Hopefully the system this week will over achieve and drop close to 1″ of rain, but I’m not going to hold my breath. Hope the arctic air stays where it is!

  • mowermike

    EMAW,

    “sudden stratospheric warming” may not keep the arctic air where it belongs..

    Any thoughts on this Gary or Jeff. Hearing a lot chatter about this and some really prolonged cold heading towards much of the country.
    Please explain:

    Also, now that you have had a look at a few cycles with this year’s LRC, does your winter forecast look on track?? I think you’re too low on your snowfall…

    • HeatMiser

      Don’t you mean too high on his snowfall? We’ve hardly had any snow and no large amount is on the horizon.

      • Dobber

        Mr. Miser one might want to look at the winter we had two years ago before drawing a conclusion. We had hardly any snow in December January and then on February 1 we had a blizzard that dropped 10 inches of snow citywide and was followed two or three days later by another substantial snowstorm. To say there is no snowstorm on the horizon is incorrect. This is weather after all and I don’t think anybody can predicted as well as we like to think we can

    • Mike,

      The only way we will get some prolonged Arctic air would be if the Arctic Oscillation goes deep negative and the Arctic air gets stuck down here. The 18z GFS went deep negative, but the models have tried to do this a few times this season. A major block formed on the 18z run. Let’s see if there is any consistency to this. But, it would not be because of sudden Stratospheric warming.

      Gary

  • trinlivco

    Gary, just watched your 6:00 weather forcast. Really 0.10 to maybe a inch of rain. What a spread, sounds like a Vegas point spread. Oh well seems like we cant get any moisture so why should you stick your neck out and say we could lots of rain. This damn drought is terrible, just hope and pray the one inch rain does happen.TR

  • HeatMiser

    Gary is cracking me up with his comments about Notre Dame being wronged. They are getting destroyed in almost every facet of the game by a clearly far superior team. LoL

    • Yes, but after they were “wronged”.

      Gary

      • Dobber

        Lol, I do love the Irish even though they are being out performened.

        • in College Football, or any football game, when you fall behind 14-0 against a team like Alabama, it’s over. Now, they fell behind by 14 because of those two bad calls, IMO. We will never know for sure, however. It would have been a different game, I believe. It doesn’t matter now.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Glad you cleaned the blog up Gary! What did we end up as far as precipitation deficit for last year? What about this year? I take it that we are probably slightly behind already for 2013? I got a new weather station for Christmas, I am debating on putting it up or holding off.

  • Skylar

    NWS now has a high of 60 for me on Friday. Is it really gonna get that warm? When was our last 60 degree day?