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Warm Friday Thoughts

Good morning, It’s Friday!

We are already into our second Friday of 2013.  Warmer air moved in overnight after, what ended up being, a decent rainfall yesterday after a weak start.  0.20″ to 0.60″ ended up falling in most areas yesterday.  After the rain ended a warm front passed through and we are near 50° this morning.  Today’s high temperature will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover is in our sky this afternoon. We will start overcast, but I am expecting it to become sunny for a while after noon.  The earlier it clears the higher the temperatures will get this afternoon. The record is 65 degrees and we will certainly at least threaten that record later today.

The warmer air is being drawn northward by a storm tracking to our northwest. This will move by to our north tonight and a cold front will blast through.  Then, our attention moves to the southwest as another storm will approach the region. And, this is where the forecast problems exist for Saturday nights chance of precipitation across Missouri.

While I am awaiting the new data this morning to finish this blog entry I would like to discuss Chicago’s weather. Do you know what has been going on there this winter season?  Chicago, IL has not had it’s first inch of snow yet.  Can you believe that? The snowflake contest would still be going on in the windy city if they had one.  Wow!  Chicago has now gone 321 consecutive days without an inch of snow in one day, and this breaks the old record of 319 days set in 1940.  I believe next month it will be snowing in Chicago, and we will have a few chances here.  Between now and then we have this one chance tomorrow night, and then that should be it for a while.

The storm system that will be dropping into the southern Rocky Mountains early tomorrow morning is forecast to shear and stretch out as it approaches us. Does this sound familiar? This is just part of this year’s pattern and in this part of the LRC it is just difficult to get a storm to be functional in our area.  Because of the shearing and stretching of the upper level energy, the forcing that will cause rising motion and precipitation will most likely be pushed off to the east and south:

As you can see, the blue, snow area forms just south of Kansas City and then quickly zips off to the east. We still have to pay close attention to this on the next few model runs. Only a slight change aloft and this could still sneak into our viewing area.  Obviously we believe the chance is very slim and we have a dry forecast for now.

Have a great weekend. We will go over the details on 41 Action News.  In the mean time, I am going to take a little break and go see Zero Dark Thirty in a matinee before I go into work.  I will check in later.

Gary

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50 comments to Warm Friday Thoughts

  • R-Dub

    We ended up with 0.28″ near downtown OP. snow is all gone and now there’s lots of mud in the yard.

  • mowermike

    Morning,

    Gary, you usually don’t give up on storms to quickly, yesterday you kind of threw the towel in early. Usually, it’s us bloggers that give up to quickly. Turned out to be a nice rainfall for Jan. Good news!!

    Non-weather related:

    Brent Musburger has made Katherine Webb famous with his comments during the BCS championship game. She is now recognized around the country and will be on the cover of Sports Illustrated swim suit addition. He should get a cut of the money that’s going to come of this for her.

    • Mike,

      Yeah, perhaps I gave in. I am just very happy that the bands of rain formed around the main system during the afternoon. We need much more moisture.

  • rred95

    Yeah Brent wanted to talk about her more than the game. He was almost unprofessional about it the way her was gushing all over her….. Is the storm this weekend the same one that has been showing up to our southeast or is this a new wave?

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary or bloggers, what’s the new model runs look like for snow here in metro kc tomorrow? Thanks

    • mattmaisch

      GFS remains rather bullish with snowfall for the KC area, especially the areas on the south and east side of town. A few runs in a row now insisting upon accumulating snow. The NAM on the other hand shows absolutely zilch.

  • ChiefsFan

    I don’t know what to think of this next storm (Saturday), the weather forecast say it could go north or stay south, I hope Gary and the weather team can pinpoint this on the 5:00,10:00 news tonight

  • dogsinkc

    What happened to the 7 day forecast earlier today with all the 30s and 20s? Now its upper 40s and 50s? Sigh

  • ChiefsFan

    I’m confused here, there saying a tricky forecast could end up further north, but only a 20% of snow, wouldn’t it make it 50% chance

  • ChiefsFan

    50/50 chance could go north could go south?

  • Theo

    I say keep wishcasting. If you pray hard enough, it will happen.

    There is no arctic air from now to 21 days out. Temps will only go below average 2 or 3 days during the next 3 weeks. NO SNOW!! That puts us into February. Winter only has 4 weeks left by then.

    • RickMckc

      Must you be so condescending? How about “I think you guys are overplaying this. I predict no snow” instead of making people who are CURIOUS feel like idiots?

      • Remember the rules of the blog Rick. Everyone can have their opinion, but you are not allowed to personally attack another blogger. It can be challenging at times.

        Have a nice weekend.

  • RedsandBengals

    I am confused also, I follow the blog on daily basis. Normally, with a pending storm (big/small) there is a lot more info on here. That being said, with the lack of resources on here today, would I be wrong to assume that this is a nothing event?

    MjB

  • yewtrees

    A long range forecast looks very nice if you are a sun lover. Mild temps and plenty of sunshine for the next 7 days.

  • R-Dub

    I like Brett’s tweet “Today, warmest in the next 7″…no doubt. Could easily be the warmest in the next 37!

  • sedsinkc

    18z NAM brings the NW edge of the very light snow to SE half of KC metro tomorrow night, but it would only be a dusting at most. Significant accumulations mainly from Columbia southeastward. This is a bit farther NW than last run, but still leaves KC with basically nothing.

  • NEGib

    I just witnessed a KCMO truck dropping salt brine on 3rd Street at the City Market. Seems rather aggressive — do they know something we don’t?

    • R-Dub

      LOL I would never assume the city of KCMO knows something we don’t. In this case, I don’t know what that truck is doing. We have a 30-40% chance of snow over 24 hours out. No reason to apply brine now.

    • They don’t know something we don’t. Unbelievable! We will have to continue monitoring Saturday evenings chance of snow closely, but the latest data produced only a few flakes. Let’s see how it looks later.

  • mowermike

    The SREF 15UTC has the precip. right in our back yard. The GEFS model is the same along with the 12z GFS. NAM right now the furthest SE model.

    The overnight EURO had snow here too. Has anyone seen this afternoon’s run??

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary is gonna up his % of snow for tomorrow, look like we gonna get some snow here in kc

  • mattmaisch

    Also, the 18Z GFS is farther south and east than the 12Z run was.

  • ChiefsFan

    So what’s it look(snow) like for downtown kc?

  • HeatMiser

    i don’t know what some of you are smoking but there isn’t going to be any snow in KC this weekend…accept it and move on.

    • mattmaisch

      I won’t be surprised if there isn’t any snow, but to act as though it’s absurd to consider the possibility is extremely shortsighted, and not terribly intelligent. Case in point.. I’d be surprised if they’re passing the pipe around the office out there in Pleasant Hill. “http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=132&map.y=150&site=eax&zmx=1&zmy=1″

  • mowermike

    Smoking…I’m sure some people on here do. I might start up soon if we don’t get a winterstorm in here.

    I think we’ll have a bit of snow tomorrow night while the GB Packers are losing.

    Here’s how it’s going to play out, Seattle will win and SF will win, then next weekend the game will be in SF. SF will win and go to the BOWL.

    But if Seattle wins and GB wins, wonder where the game will be played. I think they finished with the same record.

    Interesting…..

    • jrfan830

      It will be in Green Bay cause they are the division winners and Seattle was a wilcard. As for the weather, unless you live by I44 you most likely won’t see more then a few flakes!

  • ChiefsFan

    One other local station had 60% of snow tomorrow night a dusting to 1 in. They said latest trend is move more northeast into the metro

  • f00dl3

    There will be a dusting to an inch if you’re along I-44

  • Emaw

    I’m liking what I’m seeing in the long range forecast (for what it’s worth) a lot of above average temperatures. If we could mix in some more rains like yesterday we’d be in business until spring hits. As far as snow go’s this weekend, I don’t think we’re going to get JACK SQUAT!

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary just said he’s gonna give a snow fall map on 5:00 news

  • ChiefsFan

    I say 1 inch in metro kc tomorrow night

  • Skylar

    The 18z GFS and NAM both had snow, but only light flurries or snow showers. 0z should be coming out soon.

  • ChiefsFan

    Keep up up to date

  • thomasmidwest

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039″

    • Dobber

      I am a complete rube, but for the life of me I can’t figure out how to look at these maps on my iPhone. Any suggestions ?

  • Kcchamps

    latest NAM has 1-2″ of snow

  • Kcchamps

    NWS Discussion:

    Looking at the latest model runs for tomorrow`s potential
    snowfall…some of the higher resolution models are hinting at a
    potential band of snow that could develop further west of the main
    area of precipitation, from east central KS into north central MO,
    possibly including parts of the KC metro. Earlier SREF members,
    specifically the ARW members, were the first to pick up on this
    possibility and now the 00Z NAM and even RAP are picking up on this
    as well.

    • Kcchamps

      This would be highly sensitive to small-scale fluctuations
      in the height field so it is not necessarily going to come to
      fruition. However, a small potential is there for a narrow band of
      1″-3″ across this corridor, possibly as high as 4″ in a few spots
      given the banded nature.

  • Kcchamps

    the NWS said they are waiting on the new GFS to come in before making any changes to their forecast

  • Skylar

    Even still, what’s being shown by the models is a very narrow band of snow. We probably won’t know exactly where it sets up (if even) until it forms. I am hoping to be surprised though. :)

  • Kcchamps

    latest SREF has a HEAVY band of snow for the metro

  • ChiefsFan

    Look like Gary is gonna have to up that 30% to 90% I knew it!!!!

  • ChiefsFan

    I expect there will be a new blog update soon, based on the latest more northwestern trend