Warm & dry to end November & start December.

Good morning,

     Gary is off today but I’m pretty sure its a scheduled day off and he didn’t win the lottery last night.  But a winning tickets was sold in Missouri.  I’m not much into gambling, I certainly wouldn’t bet on us breaking the drought any time soon.  So, with that written, I’ve got blog duties today and oh boy there is so much to talk about.  (written with a sarcastic tone)  If you like warm temperatures, then I am sure you are not complaining.  For me, we are heading into December, I want it to be in the 40s for high temperatures but that is not going to happen for at least the first 7 days of December.

   A storm does move into the midwest a week from Saturday but once again it looks to miss us.  Look at the rainfall potential thru 192 hours on the overnight GFS.  Its one model but its just a continuation of this dry weather pattern.

   We get too little while the west coast gets too much.  Northern Califoria, western Oregon & Washington state get, in some instances, more than 15 inches of rain and of course snow in the higher elevations.  Most, if not all, of that precip falls between today & Saturday. 

With no rain in the forecast today or tomorrow, its safe to say this will be the 8th straight month that precipitation has finished below average.  Here is the list;

April…………….  -1.77″ (Normal is 3.73″)

May……………..  -4.23″ (Normal is 5.23″)

June…………….  -2.77″ (Normal is 5.23″)

July……………..  -3.96″ (Normal is 4.45″)

August………….  -1.86″ (Normal is 3.89″)

September…….  -1.73″ (Normal is 4.62″)

October………..  -2.13″ (Normal is 3.16″)

November…….  -0.79  (Normal is 2.15″)

So for the year we are below average by 16.32 inches or precipitation.  On top of that, December is a dry month on average.  The average precip in December is a scant 1.53″  of precipitation with an average of 4.8 inches of snow.   So it appears betting on a wet & stormy month of December would be like winning the lottery, a long shot! 

Brett

 

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  1. Brett, I really enjoy your blog posts. It is your humor that makes your posts fun to read! It would be nice if the weather team could share in this duty more often during the week. The different perspectives on the weather (or lack there of) is very refreshing.

    • Thanks for the nice words. I didn’t have a ton of time to work on the blog this morning with a meeting and the Today show updates and promos for tomorrow. Have a great day! Brett

  2. I agree w/ Farmgirl,with-out elaborating…One thing of notice,is the snow forecasted w/ the storms effecting northern California over the next few days as you,ve pointed too…Mt. Shasta is expected to receive 80+” of snow with in the next 24hrs.,or so, w/ a total of 195″+ total during this event…That is something special…..

    • Wow, that’s amazing. Here’s a link to the NWS forecast for that point for any who are interested. “http://tinyurl.com/crey2mf”

      • Rick,

        You think they’re just guessing? 33-39 inches….37-43 inches…that’s crazy.

        Doginkc,

        No models are stating that now, just possible trends as we had towards the middle of Dec. No one model can show exact amounts 5 days out, let alone 25 days.

        Just remember, snow on the ground by the 17th and a 100% chance of a white x-mas this year. The cold is coming folks, get shovels ready!!!

      • No Tush, if they did, who could believe them?

        DoginKc,

        I’m just predicting that using the LRC.. really though, just about any year(normal that is) you could predict snow on the ground by the 17th and be close to right. I’m wishcasting too…just want some weather action or just some dang moisture.

        This is one you can take to the bank today, the Chiefs by 6 on Sunday!!

  3. DoginKC,

    A couple of long range models are showing some trends of active weather towards mid Dec. Now, rain or snow, too far out to know. Let’s hope for at least something.

  4. I posted the tornado that struck Italy,but the moderator has not approved it yet….You can also watch the video yourself by Googling, “Crazy Tornado In Italy”…It will pop-up…..

  5. We will end November with 63% of normal rainfall for the month. We will end climatological autumn (Sept. 1 – Nov. 30) with 53% of normal for the season. What worries me is that we are obviously in a drought pattern, and if the LRC is valid and cycling as Lezak claims, 2013 is shaping up to be another drought year, at least until the new LRC sets up next fall.