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Using The LRC To Predict Next Weeks Storm Systems

Good morning bloggers,

A Major Winter Storm is developing and about to impact much of the eastern seaboard.  While this is happening, farther west it has been an extremely dry fall and winter season thus far as discussed in yesterdays blog. We will begin this blog entry with todays developing storm, and then we will discuss how this fits the LRC perfectly, and how next weeks storm systems also fit. We will then make a prediction for Kansas City to have the potential of a major winter storm in less than ten days.

RadarLet’s begin with how last nights band of snow turned out.  The big eastern storm actually began forming last night as a band of light snow showers was heading towards Kansas City.  A few snowflakes were reported over parts of the KC metro area, but look at what happened to the band once it moved over the KC metro area.  Yes, and this isn’t too hard to believe when we have already experienced around 90 days of this pattern with almost every storm not quite coming together in this region. The band of snow literally broke up over the KC metro area.  This disturbance is the one discussed in yesterday blog, the very positively tilted trough that is now becoming very negatively tilted as it heads into the eastern states.

Let’s take a look at the advisories across the United States for today:

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  • The purple areas over Texas and the deep south are Hard Freeze Warnings!
  • The pink areas from Georgia and northern Florida up to Boston are Winter Storm Warnings

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I went to Hilton Head Island in October for the first time. I would love to be there today. Savannah, GA is about to have a 1 to 4 inch snow storm that may also produce just as much at Hilton Head.  The largest snowstorm in Savannah, GA history has been 3.6″.  This storm will be fun to track to today as it impacts many eastern cites.

The LRC & The Next Two Storm Systems

  • According the Cycling Pattern Hypotheses (Named The LRC by the Action Weather Bloggers in 2003) a unique weather pattern sets up from October 1st to November 30th.
  •  Quasi-Permanent anchor troughs and ridges become established. These are where storm systems reach their peak strength, near the anchor troughs, and where storm systems reach their weakest strengths near the anchor ridges
  • The pattern is cycling, and a new cycle length also evolves in the fall. By early January we confirm the cycle length, and this continues through the rest of winter, spring and through the summer until a new and unique pattern sets up the next fall

This year’s pattern is cycling in the 44 to 51 day range, as we have showcased many times already this season. This is centered on the important number near 47 days. Take a look at this very important comparison for next week:

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What are we looking at here?  The LRC had just set up in early October, likely beginning around October 7th. This first storm developing Saturday night and Sunday is directly related to the October 7th storm, and the more important second storm system is directly related to the October 10th and November 28th storm systems. January 12th is exactly 47 times 2 or 94 days after October 10th, and 45 days after November 28th.  The bottom map is just a day 10 forecast from the GFS model, but the patterns look rather remarkably similar, and they should as this storm is right on schedule.

This part of the pattern in the first two cycles:

  • In cycle 1 Kansas City had 0.07″ on October 10th and 1.23″ on October 14th for a total of 1.30″ in this first cycle. Joplin, MO had 1.18″
  • In cycle 2 Kansas City got missed and was left dry. The storm was very small scale and did produce three days of light rain in Joplin, MO for only 0.06″

There is one big seasonal difference for this cycle 3 version of this storm. There is cold air available.  Now, will the storm be functional. Take a look at the latest GFS and European Model outputs for snow:

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Screen Shot 2018-01-03 at 7.09.30 AM

Bloggers, I know it seems like a fantasy storm, but it fits the LRC. Of course it may not quite come together, but I have confidence that it will.  There is a pretty good chance that this system will “break the ice” and finally end the snowflake contest. But, considering what we have gone through so far this winter season, I would say confidence is still quite shaky.

There is also the intermediate storm system, the one in between the huge eastern storm and the likely KC winter storm.  Let’s see how that sets up for Sunday on the new data. Warmer air will be drawn in, but cold air will not be that far away for Sunday’s storm.

We have maximized the 0.9″ to 2.2″ that has fallen around the KC metro area. Sunny The Weather Dog shows us that there are still patches of snow around due to the lack of melting in this cold wave we are still being affected by today. Another cold surge is arriving this morning.  The 0.9″ accumulated on the Country Club Plaza in front of our 41 Action News studios from a 0.8″ storm and a 0.1″ storm, while KCI Airport had two 1.1″ storms. Overland Park, KS has had 1.3 and .4″ for a total of 1.7″ thus far.

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Let’s track this eastern storm system. Boston may have the biggest impact, but these souther cities are not used to weather like this and the impacts may be quite significant in a few of these locations. Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the Weather2020 blog and join in the great conversation.  Have a great Wednesday. And, Happy New Year!

Gary

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1 comment to Using The LRC To Predict Next Weeks Storm Systems

  • overlandpark4me

    Nothing annoys me more than Weather companies naming winter storms and using words like bomb in the descriptions. I know they’re desperate for views, but damn. Thanks for not doing that. TWC and the properties it’s purchased are a joke.