Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern this week will have some big temperature swings despite it still being the middle of August. A cold front moved through Sunday evening and temperatures will be much cooler today. A huge warm-up will spread in on Wednesday ahead of an even stronger cold front that will arrive on Thursday. This is a lot of weather action for there being almost no chance of rain. Low clouds have spread in this morning and it will likely be cloudy at least into the early afternoon hours. As a result temperatures today will struggle to get up to 80 degrees.
Yesterday evening, the advancing cold front finally fired up some thunderstorms along the wind shift line after it passed most of our local area. Here is a picture of the developing cumulonimbus cloud well off to the east at sunset last night. This was taken by Ashley Bown Murphy and you can click on the image for a larger view. This is a cumulus congestus cloud just forming into a cumulonimbus cloud. So, once again, even with a cold front moving through at a prime thunderstorm time in August, another chance of rain missed most areas. The next front is due in Thursday morning with a big warm-up ahead of this next cool down that will arrive Thursday into next weekend.
The huge warm-up is likely on Wednesday as warm air is forced in from the west. The 850 mb level is around 5,000 feet above us and the NAM model has done a pretty good job at forecasting this level over the summer. It has been a bit aggressive, but at least a good model to look at when forecasting high temperatures, as opposed to the GFS model that has been lost all summer. Take a look at this 850 mb forecast map valid at 7 PM Thursday:
As you can see above, the 25°C line will have passed us and is surging into eastern Iowa and central Missouri by 7 PM Wednesday. With complete sunshine and an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of a cold front temperatures will likely be surging to 105°F or higher over central Kansas and to near 100° near the KS/MO border by late Wednesday. This could be our 21st 100 degree day of the year. By Thursday morning the hot air will be forced out of here as a strong summer cold front will be on our doorstep by 7 AM Thursday:
This stronger summer cold front will be strengthening in response to an amplifying and intensifying upper level flow as a storm forms just north of the Great Lakes states across southern Canada. This will bring us a longer period of cooler summer weather beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Take a look at the upper level storm forecast to develop by later in the week:
This is a lot of action for this time of the year, but amazingly the chance of any thunderstorm activity is quite low. The Drought in the Heartland has reached day 76 with no end in sight. This next front on Thursday may again pass by quietly without much thunderstorm activity in our area.
We will go over the details of these changes and this weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight. The Olympics are over and we will be back to our normal newscast schedule tonight and I am looking forward to getting back to my normal sleep schedule. Thank you for stopping by and spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments and have a great start to your week.