Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern this week will have some big temperature swings despite it still being the middle of August. A cold front moved through Sunday evening and temperatures will be much cooler today. A huge warm-up will spread in on Wednesday ahead of an even stronger cold front that will arrive on Thursday. This is a lot of weather action for there being almost no chance of rain. Low clouds have spread in this morning and it will likely be cloudy at least into the early afternoon hours. As a result temperatures today will struggle to get up to 80 degrees.
Yesterday evening, the advancing cold front finally fired up some thunderstorms along the wind shift line after it passed most of our local area. Here is a picture of the developing cumulonimbus cloud well off to the east at sunset last night. This was taken by Ashley Bown Murphy and you can click on the image for a larger view. This is a cumulus congestus cloud just forming into a cumulonimbus cloud. So, once again, even with a cold front moving through at a prime thunderstorm time in August, another chance of rain missed most areas. The next front is due in Thursday morning with a big warm-up ahead of this next cool down that will arrive Thursday into next weekend.
The huge warm-up is likely on Wednesday as warm air is forced in from the west. The 850 mb level is around 5,000 feet above us and the NAM model has done a pretty good job at forecasting this level over the summer. It has been a bit aggressive, but at least a good model to look at when forecasting high temperatures, as opposed to the GFS model that has been lost all summer. Take a look at this 850 mb forecast map valid at 7 PM Thursday:
As you can see above, the 25°C line will have passed us and is surging into eastern Iowa and central Missouri by 7 PM Wednesday. With complete sunshine and an increasing south to southwest wind ahead of a cold front temperatures will likely be surging to 105°F or higher over central Kansas and to near 100° near the KS/MO border by late Wednesday. This could be our 21st 100 degree day of the year. By Thursday morning the hot air will be forced out of here as a strong summer cold front will be on our doorstep by 7 AM Thursday:
This stronger summer cold front will be strengthening in response to an amplifying and intensifying upper level flow as a storm forms just north of the Great Lakes states across southern Canada. This will bring us a longer period of cooler summer weather beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Take a look at the upper level storm forecast to develop by later in the week:
This is a lot of action for this time of the year, but amazingly the chance of any thunderstorm activity is quite low. The Drought in the Heartland has reached day 76 with no end in sight. This next front on Thursday may again pass by quietly without much thunderstorm activity in our area.
We will go over the details of these changes and this weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight. The Olympics are over and we will be back to our normal newscast schedule tonight and I am looking forward to getting back to my normal sleep schedule. Thank you for stopping by and spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments and have a great start to your week.
Gary
Gary, yesterday I asked George “Looking ahead into the latter part of August and the 1st half of September what are the models saying about temperatures? Is Kansas city going to experience another ten day heat wave? 105 degrees for 5-10 days straight,reaching Kansas city’s all-time record high of 113 degrees?” He was to busy to answer my question yesterday so I thought I would ask you today.
Dobber, I’m guessing you were the kid in class who would raise his hand and tell the teacher they had misspelled a word on the board. Need attention do we?
I am guessing you are still that kid in class
Dobber,
Only this one big warm-up on Wednesday is showing up right now. The heights aloft are forecast to drop preventing another long duration heat wave. August has been much nicer to us on the temperatures with only five of the first 13 days of the month 95 degrees or higher. And, there is only one in the forecast, Wednesday, for this week and that may be it for a while. We are in the part of the weather pattern that I thought would have another heat wave. It didn’t quite materialize, thank goodness. The days are getting shorter and the potential for another major heat wave is fading. I just wish it would rain.
Thanks for the reply Gary
NWS has a good chance of rain Thursday. They have us in Anderson county in a 70% chance.
You might as well go ask a herd of Cattle if it’s going to rain on Thursday, their response would be more accurate than the NWS.
Gary, your saying no rain Thursday…NWS has us at 60%…highest I’ve seen in weeks and Brett has 40% chance for Thursday. I’m confused…or are you just not wanting us to get our hopes up?
Jeff,
I am not saying no rain on Thursday. I am just saying that we are in a drought and anything wide spread is unlikely once again. The chance is lower than what their forecast is indicating, once again. I hope as we get closer to Wednesday night I will think otherwise, but right now it would seem the chance is 30% again.
NWS has been about as good as anybody. Actually I think they are better, as they don’t need to hype the forecast.
You,re correct on the”hyping”part,but incorrect on the accuracy…They are conservative on there forecasts beyond 24hrs.especally temps.,in my opinion…SPC ,,,well they just SUCK…….
Well, looks like I was wrong, Gary was wrong, NWS was wrong, well, pretty much everyone was wrong about August. And I’ve never been so happy to see so many forecasters be wrong…at least about temperatures.
Now if only we can get some rain…I too am surprised the NWS is so bullish on rain for Thursday. On the other hand, the pattern is obviously undergoing some shifts, so maybe we’re shifting in a less-dry direction.
R-Dub,
Unfortunately we are still in the same weather pattern. And, getting it to rain or snow has been quite difficult. The latest data just came out with practically no rain with Thursday’s front.
Gary
How is it “the same weather pattern” when it is markedly different in both the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere than anything we’ve seen in a long time? I know your LRC hypothesis is that it’s the same weather pattern, but the observations don’t really support that. If it was the same weather pattern, your forecast would have verified and we’d be sweltering right now.
I tend to agree with you R-Dub. The odd thing is we have been seeing a little more rain, such as yesterday evenings thunderstorms East of town. I have seen LRC forecasts verify and such as this year none of the “original” forecasts using the LRC have verified.
We really haven’t been seeing a bit more rain. There are still spots that have barely had a tenth of an inch this month. And, by “original” forecasts you must mean our winter/spring/summer forecasts. Those have been pretty bad. The updated forecasts are still valid and have verified more often. The 90 day outlooks will have to improve.
Gary
R-Dub,
There are some subtle differences that I can see. The energy in the upper levels of the atmoshere has started it’s gradual increase that will last for months. Right now, I only see subtle differences.
Gary
Gary,
You mentioned El Nino but then never gave any details! Can you give us your thoughts on how this will effect our upcoming weather pattern?
Thanks!
El Nino may or may not develop in the next few months. The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is for one to form and become weak to moderate in strength. But, the weather pattern that it will affect will not develop until early October into November, so I can’t provide any more information for another few weeks to two months.
Gary
Highs in the low 80s again today?! Your 7 day shows a high of 81 today (Tuesday) but the column says a high of 90. Why do you have 2 forecasts on the same page?
Any chance that giant blob of rain out west will make it here? It doesn’t seem like its weakening.
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