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Two Strong Storm Systems Are Lining Up

Good morning bloggers,

Winter Forecast Pattern December 1This was our vision of the dominant storm track for the winter.  This is the dominant storm track that we shared with you in November for the winter season, and now we are moving into spring.   The same pattern will continues, as described by the LRC, through this spring and summer and all the way into early fall. The first big difference as we move into later March, April, and May will be the significant shift northward of the path of snow, as the cold air gradually retreats.  Yes, it is actually beginning to warm up a bit in response to the longer days. I shared some numbers last night on the 6:30 PM newscast showing that these next seven days are 141 degrees warmer than the first seven days of March.  I added all of the highs up and it was 341 degrees in these next seven days compared to 200 degrees in the first seven days of March.  I am not sure if it really made sense to the viewers, as I was just trying to come up with something that looks positive, as we have so many cloudy and stormy days in the forecast.

So, this was our projection of the pattern based on only part of that first LRC cycle, and this is the pattern developing now, below:

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As you can see on the right, this next map shows a pattern that is falling right into place, into the anchor troughs of this years LRC.  This is not this weekends storm. It is the strong and wetter storm for next week.  This is the type of  “look” that concerns me when we get to May.  If you are a storm chaser, this type of “look” is a good one for severe weather risks and set ups, with the potential for a major outbreak of severe weather.  I remember seeing a look like this in the 2002-2003 LRC.  And, we had a huge severe weather week in May that year.  I have seen other part of this years LRC that has this look as well.  Just something to think about today.  We will project forward in our spring forecast later next month.

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These next two maps, above, show tomorrow’s storm system.  A rather powerful surface cyclone will be developing, intensifying, and ejecting out into the plains states.  As that surface low tracks just northwest of KC Saturday, we may get that brief surge to near 60 degrees after morning thunderstorms move by, and a major snowstorm will be tracking north of KC. We haven’t had many storm systems with no chance of snow in KC in the past few months. Well, finally, this is another sign of spring.

And, then we get this set up just a few days later:

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This is the mid-next week set up and that is a strong line of thunderstorms predicted to be on our doorstep next Wednesday morning.  We are now at the time of the year where we will be monitoring closely for the thermodynamic set up (surface dew point and temperature) for potential severe weather. At first glance this looks like a severe weather set up, but for KC this is early in the morning and it will be a bit cool.  Let’s keep monitoring this incredible weather pattern closely.

Have a great day!

Gary

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